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Monday, April 23, 2007

The Dow lost 42 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, implying higher prices to come. We'll see. I have no trades in the works here. Gold lost a bit over a dollar and the XAU dropped around a point. Not sure what to do here as well but I'm leaning towards the short side. We have begun a new options cycle and the premiums are high. So I'm on the sidelines for now. We have the Fed minutes coming out later in the week and the 1st quarter GDP. I have no good feeling about how any of that will come out and affect the markets. I'm kind of in an indecisive stage right here. Mentally I'm not feeling all that confident with the recent losses that I've suffered. Technically there isn't a clear signal one way or the other here. So putting that all together there is no reason to take any risks at the moment. I've been seeing a lot of press and media attention given to gold lately and that is one of the reasons I'm not bullish there at the moment. Seasonally we are entering the period of under performance for the stock market. The "Sell in May and go away" theory. Which actually works out pretty well usually. However it didn't work last year. So we'll see. Not much else for today...

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