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Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The Dow rose points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were positive. We have remained overbought but I don't think it can last much longer. I have an overnight order in for some OEX puts in case we get a rise early in the morning. The Fed minutes will be out at 11 PST. There is no doubt in my mind really, that we will have a decline sometime this week. The timing, as always, is the thing. Gold was up over $4 today and the gold shares just couldn't get going. The XAU was up over a point again but mainly due to FCX. ABX rallied early but fell back and did nothing. Volume remains light here as well. I don't know what is keeping me from selling this position. It is a loser and I don't see it turning around at this rate. Gold continues higher and the gold shares draw no interest. That is never a good sign. I really should just take the loss and move on to the OEX, which really requires a lot of attention when trading it. For some reason I still believe ABX will break above $30 before the expiration. The technicals are leaning overbought. Perhaps I am just reluctant to book the loss. That is sometimes a problem. There is only a week and a half left on these things. The dollar was weaker today and that supported gold itself. But the gold shares are stuck. If my prognosis for a downturn here occurs, it will probably take the gold shares with it. We'll see about tomorrow. Mentally I was up early but I am feeling OK. My mind is confused by what is happening in the gold market but maybe I should just take it for what it is and move on. There is always next month and other trades. There is still time to make some money again this month before expiration. I will give it a shot and see what transpires...

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