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Thursday, April 19, 2007

The Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative again. We sold off big in the beginning of the day and came all the way back. However the breadth has been bad the past three days and I don't think we can keep going up with that kind of backdrop. One more day until expiration and again, I'd like to try the puts but the risk is high. However the market has been propped up all week and tomorrow could be no exception. Gold lost $5 and the XAU got slammed, off almost 4 points. I think we will be trading lower in gold now for a while. The dollar is due to bounce because it is way oversold. I will look to get long gold later this year at some point. Anyway the overall market was weaker once again and I am wondering if this is the prelude to a decline or just working off the overbought condition of the market. The 6 month favorable period for the market is about up however that indicator didn't work last year. I won't be looking to put any long term money to work until autumn. Mentally I didn't get a full nights sleep but I'm not feeling tired. I will perhaps try and make some money tomorrow but I doubt it. I don't have any other ideas in line at the moment. Once earnings are out we should be in a lull for a while but that will take a couple of weeks. NEM does report next week but I don't have any thoughts on that at the moment. I guess it's just a matter of waiting for the next opportunity. Sometimes patience is the best thing you can do.

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