The Dow lost 104 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We are perhaps going to reverse the summation index to the downside today. I'll know more when the McClellan oscillator comes out. The options haven't moved much though. I might get short if we snap back to the uptrend line that was broken today but it will have to be on light volume. We do have some divergences but the market has been pretty good lately so we'll see. Gold was up $7 today but the XAU lost over 2 points. Not a positive development on the gold shares front. I will get long when we get to the uptrend line at around 130. We are 3 points away. The volume has been negative there so it will be a tough call. I really would like a good signal somewhere. I'll try and be patient. As I said before after doing last years taxes, there were way too many bad trades last year. I have to not trade just for the sake of trading. Sometimes waiting is a good thing and other times you miss the move. Tough game. Mentally I'm doing fine but need to get my head back into it. I've had some time off and it isn't easy getting back into the groove. But the competition is not going to cut me any slack. I need to focus and concentrate on what has to be done to be successful. It isn't easy but I know what it takes and it's just a matter of doing it. There is no one to blame for the lack of effort but myself. So I've just got to do the work and put my best effort on the table. Anything less isn't worth the time...

The Dow was up 35 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up higher and sold off right at the end. Don't know what that means. End of month tomorrow and the money should flow in again at the beginning of March. No clear signal but we are getting up against a weekly top line on the S&P 500. The XAU was down almost 5 points and gold lost about 4 bucks. I'm waiting for the uptrend line to be touched and that could happen this week if the action continues like today. So I'm a little scattered, marketwise at this point. Did not get a lot of good sleep last night. Mentally I need to get back in the groove of the market as I have been lax as of late. I did my taxes today and I made quite a few bad trades last year. There were way too many trade and way too many losses. On the plus side I did have some real nice gains occasionally. I will be trying to build on that. Gonna take it easy tonight and get back at it tomorrow...

The Dow was down 7 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive though and the overall markets were higher. It seems like the market wants to head higher. You can't deny that the breadth has been pointing towards higher prices. The only problem has been the volume, which has been lacking. The end of the month comes up next week. Money flow should appear at the beginning of March. We'll see. Gold soared $10 on a bombing in Saudi Arabia. The XAU rose 3 and a half points. Volume wasn't convincing there and I will wait for the trend line to be touched. Then I'll get long. Mentally I'm doing fine. I've been getting enough rest and I am simply waiting for a playable signal before I do something. Sometimes you've got to be patient and that was my problem with the last stupid trade I did. Hopefully I've learned something from that. I'm going to relax over the weekend. I'll check up on some charts and readings. But right now it looks like an upward bias.

The Dow lost 67 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 67 market would indicate. Not getting a clear signal so it's the sidelines for now. Gold was down around 5 bucks and the XAU lost almost 5 points and is right at the 50-day moving average. Still a bit away from the target of 130. Perhaps this market is through though. Time will tell but I will get long at the trendline. Kind of quiet in this shortened week so far. Mentally I'm feeling fine, not tired. I think the next trade will be a good one since the last few have really been terrible. I learning to move on. It has to be done. I'm not looking at any individual issues at this point but you never know. The week is almost over and I'll look forward to some more down time this weekend.

The Dow rose 68 points today on supposedly good inflation news. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light again. You can't deny that the trend is up though. No trades here for now. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. I have no good signals as of yet and nothing on the horizon that I'm really keen on. It is a good time to sit back and see what the markets say. I'll try to listen. Mentally I'm tired as I slept elsewhere last night and not all that good. I'm still trying to focus and I'm doing a better job of after market study. I will continue to try and get better. Doesn't look like any trades in the near term.

The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Seems like the internals are pointing to higher prices. But we do have the inflation report tomorrow and that could change things. We'll see. Gold was slightly higher and the XAU rose almost 2 points. I have done the research and it looks like the XAU is a buy under 130. It is currently above 140, so I'll wait. Short week due to the holiday. Mentally I hopefully have recovered from the horrible trading last week. You've just gotta move on in this game. No trades for now except for gold if it comes up. I'm waiting for a decent signal on the OEX. Otherwise I'm continuing my study of the markets. I'm reading the blue book and trying to prepare myself for the next trade. Nothing else on the horizon for now...

The Dow lost 5 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a uneventful expiration. A horrible week for me though as confidence is lost. Gold didn't do much and I will have to get the weekly XAU chart and plot my next move there. Just missed out on some big opportunities there in the first 2 months of the year. I expect it will be quiet there for a while and then pick up again. But who knows? As for the market, the summation index has turned to the upside. We will be overbought here shortly. I have no trades in mind at this point. I need to get it back together, mentally. My year has started off lousy, just like last year. I can't expect to be able to come back all the time but I usually do. And I will this time too. You somehow gotta believe in yourself even when you do stupid things. It is a long weekend and I will take the time to forget about all this stuff for a while and try to relax. I think I need to. But I will come back stronger than ever and take advantage of all that the markets have to offer...

Some days you have to ask yourself, how could I be so dumb? It happens and it shouldn't. The Dow rose 61 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. My order for puts that I left overnight got filled right away. It was a loser from the start and by far my worst trade in quite a while. What happened? The summation index was about to go positive. The downtrend line had been broken to the upside on good volume. Advance/declines had turned to the positive. And I bought puts? Even when I knew that I shouldn't have, I did. And now you see that the enemy is in the mirror. Stupidest trade to date. With only 2 days to go no less. I really don't know what to say. After all the years of trading I still do mindless things. Greed, I suppose. It was a 70% loss. It is the first trade of the year that never had a chance. I'm tired of going back to the drawing board. Mentally I just don't have it at the moment. I will continue the work but I will have to get my head back into the discipline required to have success. It isn't easy. You lose confidence in yourself. That is never good. Especially after this failure. I will move on but I'm going to have to get cautious and watch out for myself. A break is in order. I don't know what else to do. I do have an idea on gold but will have to wait for it to get back to the trendline. But really, just where do I go from here? Continue this foolish pattern of no brain trading? What happened to the discipline? Perhaps this poor outing is a wake-up call to get serious. The markets are there providing plenty of opportunities. I'm just not up to the task right now. I'm going to have to take a few steps back and analyze just what is going on here. To do that trade in the face of conflicting data was just plain wrong. There is no point in putting in the time to do the work if you're not going to listen to it. Again I am reminded about just how hard it is to be a success in this field. It isn't for most but it is my calling. I'll need to make some changes and get ready to do battle with myself again. There is no hiding from the fact that changes have to be made. A trade like this is truly ridiculous. I can only place the blame on myself, move on, try to do better the next time and forget it...

The Dow rose another 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We might be about to turn up on the summation index. Then why do I have an order in for puts? Am I an idiot? Maybe. We are overbought on the 5-minute, 15-minute and 60-minute charts. I am looking for a drop off of that. And with 2 days left I will not get greedy and will take whatever profit, if there is any. This is to be a quick, short-term trade if at all. The new Fed chairman speaks again tomorrow. It could be a market mover. We are near the top of the channel. But on the negative for this trade we have broken the downtrend line on good volume yesterday. There is usually a snapback to the line violated. It could have been today but I'm not sure. We may just run up into the expiration, that is a possibility. Inflation data on Friday and I may not even be in this thing by then. I may also gain my sanity and cancel this trade tomorrow morning. I will have to check the closing data. Perhaps I am just ansy to make a trade before expiration. I should ask myself, is this the best trade to be making right now? Things to ponder into the evening. Perhaps long is just the way to go here into March. Mentally I need to get some more sleep. My mind isn't totally sold on this trade. Only 2 days left? I suppose maybe I missed what I could have done and should wait until next month. Always can change my mind I guess. I'll check things tonight and see what happens...

The Dow jumped 136 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. My puts got stopped out for a 50% loss. I kinda knew that was coming yesterday. My inertia killed me. I should have been up early today to sell them. I also had opportunities to buy calls and did not. I would have been prepared for a move either way and I wasn't. I was lazy and although I was up early, I just went back to sleep. I wasn't up to the challenge of trading. It is my own fault. I probably should just sit it out for the rest of the week but I'm thinking f getting some puts again if we stall out here. New Fedspeak tomorrow and that could be interesting. Gold didn't do much and the XAU is still away from the weekly uptrend line. When it gets there, I'm getting long. Could take a while since the sell-off has been severe. But I think longer term it's a viable trade. My ineptitude has really killed my performance so far this year. Each trade I've entered was profitable at some point, yet I'm stuck with 3 out of 4 being losers. My trading tactics have been lame. I need to see what is going on for what it is, not what I'd like it to be. It is always easy to look back and say I should have done this or that. I'll recover and trade on though. I'm not believing this is the start of some big rally. I could be wrong but the advance/declines have been pathetic throughout the recent trading action. We have really been rangebound and only the Dow is near a breakout through the top. Sometimes, like I've said before, the Dow will lead but it isn't a strong leadership. Anyway there are 3 days before expiration and I might have to try something else. Inflation data on Friday. Maybe a play on that. But also just sitting it out might work too. There might be a sell signal after tomorrow though. Tough to move on after a bad, losing trade but it has to be done. Mentally I'm actually not feeling too bad except for my inaction this morning. Lazy doesn't cut it in any line of work...

The Dow lost 26 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. My OEX puts are right about where I bought them and I am getting extremely worried about this trade. We were down over 60 points and came back in the last hour. That isn't good for the short side. The call/put ration was bearish. That isn't good short term either. I've got to see some downside tomorrow but I don't know if it will come. Perhaps we will go sideways into the expiration. Maybe the volume had to do with the blizzard over the weekend. I don't know. I have a stop-loss order in but I would like to make some money. The summation index is pointing down and the weekly charts are bearish. I don't know if it's enough to save this trade though. Gold got killed again and the XAU was down over 3 points and has broken all support. I need to check the trendline on a weekly basis. We could be there. Mentally I'm tired because I haven't felt too well the past day or so. Just took a hike but the markets loom large. The new Fed president is speaking on Wednesday and Thursday. The market could be waiting for that. Not sure where we go but am sticking to the downside for now. We are back at the downtrend line and if it holds all will be well for the shorts. If not, I'll try and switch back to the longside. It ain't easy...

The Dow gained another 35 points today on what looks to be average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The market made quite a comeback as we were down 60 points in the morning. The puts I own at one point tripled but now they are right back where I purchased them. Tough game. I actually thought about getting some calls as we rallied right back up to the downtrend line. If we break through those puts are dead. I think if we do get through there I'll get some calls but it's a hard decision because the technicals aren't really signaling a buy. The summation index is still pointing down and I'm going to stick with that. I think Tuesday will be the day to the downside according to what I've got. It's getting through Monday that will be the test. A lot of volatility here and that could help prop up the option prices. My trading tactics need work though. Gold was down big, as much as it was up yesterday. Crazy market there for now. Should of had some puts but what can I say? It is just the toughest business in the world. The challenges are not for the faint of heart. The discipline and work required for success are enormous. Mentally I need to continue to focus on the positives and do the work. My entries have been good and my anticipation of the direction has been excellent. My timeframes have been off as we are moving much faster, both ways, than I anticipated. I still think the downside is the way to go until that downtrend line is broken. Could happen on Monday or not. I will try and relax over the weekend but no guarantees there.

The Dow gained 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were up 80 at one point. We made it to the downtrend line and when we got there I bought some OEX puts. I have a stop-loss order in to cut the loss if we go higher tomorrow from here. The puts are slightly in the black but I don't know about this trade. We need some more positive days before this will work I think. But the market will do what it wants. Intermediate term we are getting oversold so I can't see a lot of downside from here yet. But I do think the lows will be broken, I just don't know when. Tomorrow will be interesting. The trade I missed would have worked out well and I would be out of it today. I lament missing that one. Just didn't feel good about doing it, like I said. Aftermath of the previous bad trade. It doesn't matter now and I need to do the work on this one. We'll see. Gold was up about $14 at on point today but the XAU only gained a couple points. The volume wasn't there either. Perhaps a rest is in order there. I will wait for it to pull back to the uptrend line and get long there. I need to get the chart on a weekly basis. The summation index is still pointing down and that was the basis for this trade. That and the downtrend line in effect. Trade data out tomorrow, could be a market mover. I wouldn't mind seeing a light volume up day. Next week is the key for this one, maybe. Mentally I need some rest and will get to bed early tonight to deal with whatever happens tomorrow. The markets are fickle and we are almost into expiration week. However I think this was the right thing to do and I was waiting for the touch of the downtrend line today. We got it and now the future awaits and what it brings...

The Dow rose 108 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive but not a lot for an up hundred market. My order for calls wasn't filled. And so it goes. You somehow must persist in the face of frustration. It's tough. I am now looking to get some puts at the downtrend line. But I'm not sure that this is the right play. The market had to rise here. I know it sounds all knowing but looking at the numbers that was what had to happen. I don't know how long it will last but it actually could be the start of a decent move. However the overall market is weaker than the Dow. Sometimes the Dow will lead, I've seen it before. I don't know if this is one of those times. You can only know after the fact. I'll short it at the downtrend line and if it breaks to the upside, I'll get out. It's all I can do at this point. Perhaps I got too cute trying to get in but I really think my fear of losing kept me from getting filled. It is the aftermath of the last lousy trade coming back to haunt me. The time was right but I just didn't get it. Now we'll see what happens tomorrow. Hopefully we go right up to the line. But there is more room to the upside. Gold was down a bit, the XAU tried to rally but couldn't. Perhaps will make a play there but I doubt it for now. I need to get more sleep, mentally I'm not feeling well after missing this trade. I have to somehow put it behind me because there is still time to make some money in this options cycle. It pains me to just miss out on trades more than it does to lose money. It just goes to show you how much work there is left that needs to be done...

The Dow lost about 50 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I had an order to buy some calls during the day but pulled it back. It is really tough here as we have somewhat broken support but the market is oversold. I am confident we are going to get a decent up day before the end of the week. I left in an overnight order but it is going against what I think is right. Then why do it? There is no reward without some risk here. I have a price that probably won't get filled. The market isn't tanking here it is working its way lower. The summation index is pointing down and that is the trend for now. Even if this order doesn't get filled I'm prepared to get some puts for next week, so I can wait if necessary. But I think there is a long trade here. It will be a short one with a tight stop-loss order in if it gets filled. The action was in gold today. Did I mention I had just started to look at the puts? Well I was too late as gold plunged almost $20 today. The XAU lost over 10 points. This is unheard of! It just goes to show you that markets will do what they want, when they want. There was profit to be had for sure but I just didn't keep a good enough eye on it. I did not pay attention as I was busy with the overall market. That happens. But more work must be done. There are no excuses. Mentally I did not sleep enough and am tired. I have to be ready for tomorrow and the rest of the week. It is a tough game and that cannot be forgotten. I need to put forth the effort necessary for success. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow gained about 5 points on light Monday volume. Advance/declines were positive. I was thinking about getting some calls today and I kind of think that is the play here. But the summation index is pointing down. That is stopping me. Most of the technicals are overbought and the put/call ratio favors a buy. Perhaps I'll do it tomorrow or maybe it is too late. Tough call. I'd like to short gold or some of the gold stocks here. The XAU was up 4 points and gold rallied just a bit today. It looks like a sell on the RSI for the XAU, ABX and NEM. It's hard to do though because this market has been so strong and the money just keeps going in there. But it has to take a rest sooner or later. Not sure how to go about it there but I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm doing the work required, checking the charts etc. I'm a bit tired today but just took a nice refreshing walk to clear my thoughts. There will be an opportunity to make some money here in the next 2 weeks. I am ready and will try and not make the same mistakes as last month. My trading tactics will be better. It's my analysis that has to be correct this time. I think I have a handle on it but who knows. The market will go where it wants to. I'll watch and listen and we'll see what happens...

The Dow lost another 58 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 60 market would indicate. We are at a tough point here, tradingwise. The weeklies are bearish but the dailies are flashing a buy signal. I would like to get long here but just aren't sure it's the right thing to do. I will ponder this over the weekend and decide from there I guess. The summation index is now turning down I believe. The trend overall is now lower. But a long trade managed properly could be the right play for the short term. Then get short again at the downtrend line. That would be the scenario in a perfect world. But this is the market and anything can happen. I'm getting some buy signals from various indicators and sells from others. Perhaps sitting on the sidelines would be prudent but you don't make any money that way. Gold was down a bit today and the XAU lost almost 5 points. I would like to short this on a rebound. Will that happen? Don't know but I think it has a chance. Tough market though and you've just got to pay attention there. I also would like to see the inflation numbers in a week or so and get some OEX puts beforehand. I do have some ideas but when and if to implement them are the questions. Mentally I'm doing fine now that the dentist has passed. I'm ready to trade and just need to make up my mind on what to do. It's dangerous and risky at this point. I'll have to regroup over the weekend and see what happens. Short is ultimately the way I think I should trade it but who knows? Crosscurrents are tricky. This is one tough market to trade at the moment. I'll try and relax over the weekend but no guarantees there...

Dow down 100 points with 2 to 1 negative advance/declines. Volume good. It looks like I have missed this move. Did have an order in but did not get filled. Perhaps will try and get short if there is a bounce tomorrow. Summation index is probably headed down now. Short post due to dentist. Not sure about the duration of this sell-off because we will be oversold tomorrow. Might just wait for a solid signal. We'll see...

The Dow was up about 90 points today. Advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 90 market would indicate. Volume was good. The Dow has broken through the latest downtrend line but the other indices haven't. If the Dow is leading us higher we could be near the end of the rise. I'm not exactly sure but who is, ever? I would like to get short here but there really isn't a clear signal. I think I'll just have to wait but we'll see what happens tomorrow. The XAU was down a bit but I didn't see that the puts moved too much. I guess I'll have to start keeping an eye on the dollar again. GE had a big reversal on heavy volume and that helped turn things around for the Dow. Not that I'm going to play GE again anytime soon. I would like to do something before the employment report but who knows? I need to play it smart and that is not always the thing to do. It sounds like it is though. I guess I could try and be patient and wait for a move to 1300 on the S&P 500. It is tough to try and trade on mixed signals but the market will do what it wants. Mentally I'm doing good and got plenty of rest last night. However I need to focus on what needs to be done here. The discipline isn't what it needs to be. I'll work on it...