Minor selling today as the Dow fell 23 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  My guess is that we'll muddle through the week and go from there.  Basically on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will drive specific stocks.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold was off a little over $5.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  I'm still looking to get the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now in summertime market mode.  No big swings and lethargic trading.  Players away from their desks.  Not a lot of activity.  Patience for a proper set up is the way to go here until after Labor day.  Then things should get interesting again.  We sometimes get an August swoon and I'll be on the lookout for that.  But for now it's the middle of July and I'm not in a hurry to do anything.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

A nondescript summer Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Bank earnings will dictate the week most likely.  It is options expiration week but if today is any indication it will be a yawner.  No SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE lost a dime on light volume.  Gold rose three bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  I'm still hoping to get some longer term calls there.  Technical conditions remain overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report here.  Barring a headline out of the blue, it appears that we will be on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will move things company specific, however I'm not sure what the overall effect on the S&P will be.  No urgency to trade here.  The overbought condition favors the puts in my mind since we've been overbought for quite a while.  It's a condition that won't last forever.  The VIX at such a low level favors complacency though.  Like I said, there's no rush to trade here.  A lot of players are out on summer break as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Another day another new all time high as the Dow added 243 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No overhead resistance for stocks so we'll see how high this can go.  I'm expecting more upside into the expiration next week.  The summer rally is in full force.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold added nine bucks and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again but the volume was lower.  I'm still in favor of the longer term calls here but it doesn't look like the market will give us a chance to purchase.  I'll remain patient for now but this looks like a trade that won't happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I had a lot to deal with this week and you cannot effectively trade when you've got outside things going on.  There is no shame in stepping aside for a while to gather yourself.  The market won't wait for you but there will always be opportunities down the road.  We know where things stand at the moment with regards to stocks.  Overbought, staying that way, new all time highs on a daily basis with options expiration week coming up.  The Fed is ready to provide more liquidity at the end of the month even if it isn't necessary.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  The US/China issues are on the back burner for now.  The only potential negative that I see is on the longer term weekly chart for the S&P.  There could be a megaphone pattern being formed but if we continue higher from here that will be negated.  Not much else to report here in the middle of July.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  The weekend is upon us and I'll be checking the charts for the next trade.  But I'll also have to get some more rest after the week I've had.

The Dow climbed 227 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  It was a mixed bag to be sure.  GE was off almost a dime.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The blog is cut short again today due to medical issues.  Thank you for your patience.

The Dow added 76 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as we continue to plow higher.  Chairman Powell spoke to Congress today and practically guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month.  So it looks like a run higher into the July expiration is what is in the cards.  No overhead resistance so we'll have to see how far it goes.  GE lost a nickel on light volume.  Gold rallied as the futures added almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped.  The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  It looks the consolidation here is over and we're about to make another run higher.  Need to get those longer term GDX calls as soon as possible now.  This has the look of a trade that will only be successful because the money flows into the gold shares have been very positive.  What it means is that a lot of players are in this trade and will support higher prices going forward.  It looks like September is the month that they've chosen to complete the run up.  That's what the open interest in the options is telling me.  They're not going to announce it, you just have to pay attention on your own.  A drop back to 24.5 would be a gift and I don't think that's going to happen.  The technical indicators remain overbought but that means nothing in rallies like this.  You'll know it's over when you see gold on the news at night and how much it has gone up.  That will be what the smart money needs to dump what they've got to the latecomers.  Should be in September.  Mentally I'm all over the place with health issues at the forefront.  But the market doesn't care.  I do say that a lot but it's important that you know and deal with the truth.  Money is moving around and being made and lost by the players.  It doesn't matter who you are or how much you've got.  The game itself is bigger than that.  So your personal issues, health, etc. don't affect the prices of the markets.  At this point it appears the Fed is going to continue to flood the market with cheap money which will keep the rally going.  The decline will come when that stops.  Perhaps earnings won't pan out in the near term but that remains to be seen.  The technical indicators remain overbought on the S&P but in rallies they stay that way.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today.  The summer rally lives on.  Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just got out of the hospital.  Recovering from surgery yesterday.  The market doesn't care about our individual issues.  Will have the blog up and running again as soon as possible.

Had a medical issue and went to the emergency room yesterday.  Once again health must take precedent over the market.  The Dow did rise 170 points on light volume, so the McClellan oscillator signal was valid.  I did not expect such a large price movement on a shortened session before a holiday.  New all time highs for some of the indices and there is no overhead resistance.  I'll have more tomorrow after the jobs report.  Rest and recovery for me now.

The Dow drifted higher today and gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a lot to say about todays price action.  To me, it has the feel of sideways before moving higher for the Dow.  The S&P 500 set another new high today.  We did get a signal for a strong move in the McClellan oscillator last night.  However today doesn't fulfill that and tomorrow is a shortened session.  So it appears the signal is invalid this time around.  The VIX continued lower today and that means complacency is rampant.  It also can mean higher prices in the near term as well.  The Bollinger bands did not contain things here.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold gained back all that it lost yesterday.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX also rebounded to the extent of yesterdays losses.  Quite impressive I might add.  Volume was good.  Money is flowing into the precious metals complex.  Calls are in order if a chance comes up.  I see more money is flowing into the September GDX contracts, so that is probably where things are set up to be profitable.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Holiday mode is here and we're just waiting for the jobs number on Friday at this point.  I'm guessing that prices will rally regardless of the report unless it is something way out of the ordinary.  I do think that waiting until next week to do something is probably in order as well.  I am really a believer in the gold shares even more so after todays price action.  I may have to go higher on the strike price though because there seems to be no getting back to oversold territory.  I'll remain patient for this week at least.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Short session tomorrow here in the US and then an off Thursday for the 4th.  Simply waiting for the employment report.

Well we made it through the weekend unscathed and the Dow rose 117 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The US/China meeting didn't really do anything but it was better than more tariffs.  So the market rallied.  We did finish well off of the highs for the day but at least it was positive.  Volume was good and that's a plus.  It's a short holiday week with an early close on Wednesday.  Thursday the US markets will be closed.  If not for the employment report on Friday, most traders would take the rest of the week off.  We did hit another new all time high for the S&P 500 today but now I don't know how much further we can go in the near term.  We are now right at the top of the Bollinger band there.  I'm not bearish here but we'll probably be in a holding pattern waiting on the jobs report.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold took a beating today as it doesn't like peaceful resolutions.  The gold futures fell $27 as the US dollar was sharply higher.  The XAU dropped 2 7/8, while GDX lost almost a point.  Volume was heavy.  This fits in with the scenario of falling back to the breakout point for the gold shares.  That would be 23.5 for GDX and the spot to try the longer term calls there if you're so inclined.  I myself would like to try them if all goes according to plan.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped a full point today and has pierced the lower Bollinger band.  That is usually the spot where things would turn around.  This implies some volatility retuning to the marketplace in the near term.  I'm not so sure that will happen given the holiday week time frame.  But it's something to keep an eye on.  I myself will be keeping an eye on the gold shares and looking for an entry point.  More downside would be a plus as it would shake out whoever chased the recent move higher.  There's always the chance that my idea for the gold shares here is completely wrong as well.  However I am a believer in price and volume.  The recent move up had those requirements.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tonight.

We got some end of the month buying today as the Dow gained 73 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  This will move the summation index back up.  Traders were positive before the US/China meeting.  Perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  We'll get whatever headline comes out of that meeting and go from there.  Monday will be an interesting session.  My guess is that day will set the tone for the holiday week.  But we can only guess at the results right now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned back up.  You get the feeling that perhaps we'll see some kind of rally to new all time highs on Monday.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  A waiting game here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I simply can't remember when the market was on such pins and needles waiting for the results of a weekend meeting.  The fact that is happens on Saturday will give everyone time to digest the news.  That also allows the spin to go both ways with the comments afterward.  The technical indicators at the moment are pointing towards higher prices.  My view is that whatever happens it will be viewed as positive and the summer rally will be on.  It could be a repeat of the move higher into the June option expiration.  A strong week next week followed by consolidation and then a run up into expiration.  That's quite a long guess, even for me.  We'll simply have to wait and see what happens.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get back to oversold but they have become popular and the wait could be a while.  Still short term overbought there but the straight up move has stalled here.  Remaining patient for the time being.  Europe higher and Asia lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow is running in place as it fell 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  Obviously the overall market is doing much better than the Dow.  Today should move the summation index back to positive territory but it isn't exactly moving higher just yet.  The economic data that has been coming out has been a bit light.  But the market is simply waiting to hear what happens over the weekend with the US and China.  That is where we are at.  End of the month, quarter and half the year tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Simply waiting for things to get oversold here but it could take a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing new to report.  All that was said so far this week still applies.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn back up.  The short term indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over and still remain overbought.  I'm expecting stocks to head back up and hit new all time highs again.  I'm hoping gold takes a breather and I'll be able to get positioned in the September or October GDX calls.  It's still a watch and wait mode for me.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing new to report really.  The short term technical indicators have turned down but it looks like they may be trying to curl back up.  Potential double tops are still in place for a few of the major stock averages.  End of the month coming up as well as the G-20 meeting with the US/China get together.  I doubt there will be a lot of positions taken ahead of that because the results are unknown.  And even when they are known, questions will remain.  Interesting times.  GE was up a nickel and volume remains light.  Gold lost six bucks and is due for a rest here.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on good volume.  They did both finish well above their lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things are on hold ahead of this weekends meetings.  We'll get the reaction to all that on Monday and then it's a holiday week with the market closed on Thursday.  Most players will be off on Friday and some will take the whole week.  So unless there is a strong signal to do something, sitting things out for now is the strategy.  There will still be a couple of weeks left in the July option cycle after the holiday on the 4th.  I'm hoping to get a chance at the longer term GDX calls at some point.  That's the plan for now.  Otherwise we'll remain patient and simply wait for the next perceived opportunity.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines. 

Heading down today as the Dow fell 179 points on slightly better than average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Some Fed talk and lower home sales today but nothing out of the ordinary in my view.  We were overbought and now are relieving that condition.  Whether or not it turns into something more remains to be seen.  The VIX is back above 15 and its 50 day moving average.  That's something to keep an eye on.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold added $7 on the futures but the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was good once again.  The gold shares have been going straight up and are extremely overbought.  A drop or pause here is completely warranted.  A drop back to 24 on GDX will be where I'll be looking for the longer term calls there.  Patience is the key now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a decline for stocks but the potential topping patterns that I mentioned yesterday are still in place.  We're basically on hold until the US/China meeting over the weekend.  I expect some type of positive resolution there even if it just means getting back to the bargaining table.  That would most likely lift stocks and perhaps send gold lower.  That's my guess for now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over.  They still have plenty of room to fall but we could also see just a sideways movement in the indicators and higher prices for stocks.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now since we've just rolled into the July option cycle and the premiums are high.  However if my indicators show a short term oversold reading before the weekend, I may try the SPY July calls looking for good news over the weekend.  We'll just have to wait and see how the rest of the week plays out.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Taking a breather today as the Dow was up 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Waiting for the G-20 meeting which begins on Friday with the US/China trade talks to resume there.  Not exactly sure what we'll see out of that.  The market is still overbought here though but that hasn't mattered lately.  The VIX is at its 50 day moving average.  RUT and TRAN were both lower today.  The TRAN has a potential head and shoulders top here and that is something to watch.  A mixed bag of economic data due out this week.  We've got the end of the month and 2nd quarter coming up on Friday as well.  GE lost almost twenty cents on light volume.  Gold continues its uninterrupted ride higher as it gained over $20.  The US dollar was lower again as well.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added almost a full point.  Volume was heavy.  There was a chance that things would move straight up here and that is what has happened.  Extremely overbought for the gold shares but there is nothing in the way of higher prices.  I will still wait for some type of pullback or consolidation because chasing it here is not the best idea in my mind.  I may miss out on this move if it just keeps rising but it cannot go straight up forever.  I do believe in the breakout though and look for a target of 30 for GDX going forward.  I'm also still in favor of going out to September or October on the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We also have some Fed speeches due tomorrow that could move things for stocks.  My guess is that we're simply in a pause before we move higher.  There is also a chance that some major indices are making double tops here before they move lower.  QQQ, NYA and even the S&P 500 have this look at the moment.  I think that we're going to continue to make new all time highs because the volume heading up to now has been pretty good.  I could be wrong.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Some minor selling to finish out the week as the Dow fell 34 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  No news to speak of just a quadruple option expiration as happens in June.  Stock indices remain overbought.  There are potential evening starts on the daily candlestick charts.  However the flow of money probably isn't over here and I'd expect even more new all time highs as the days go on.  Things may quiet down a little now that summer has arrived.  GE lost over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher adding $6 to the $1400 level.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are blown out to the upside.  Combine that with the strong resistance here at the 25 level and it is time for these stocks to take a breather.  As it stands now, a drop back to 24 might be all we get.  I'll be looking for the longer term calls at that level if we get there.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've gotten both the fed and options expiration out of the way.  New all time highs were achieved for the S&P 500.  Next up is the meeting between the US and China at the end of next week.  Not sure what we'll see out of that and the market is always at the mercy of headline risk.  The rally this week was strong and that cannot be ignored as well.  The VIX did move higher in the past couple of sessions so that is something to keep an eye on.  Gold broke out on very good volume but it certainly needs a rest.  However the way that it moved lets you know that the rally is for real.  Hopefully we'll get a chance at GDX again in the near future.  I'm looking at the September or October calls.  We do need to see some type of pause or consolidation though to work off this extreme overbought condition.  Patience for now is what is needed there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  It looks like the same end of he week profit taking that we also saw today in the US.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 249 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  The positive option expiration week bias has been in full effect.  New highs on good volume is a positive sign for the bulls.  Remaining overbought on the short term technical indicators as the rally lives on.  There was no news today but there seems to be plenty of money around to drive things higher.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold exploded to the upside and broke through its long term resistance.  The precious metal futures gained over $40.  The US dollar continued lower.  The XAU soared 3 1/2, while GDX added over a buck.  Volume was extremely heavy.  GDX is at the resistance of 25 already.  At this rate it will blast right through.  We may not get a pullback to get long at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Up, up and away at the moment.  Plenty of liquidity it seems.  I'm being called away right now so the blog has to be cut short.  More tomorrow.  Europe and Asia higher too.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Well the Fed came and went.  The Dow rose 38 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The rally yesterday took care of whatever dovish talk that we got from the Fed today.  In reality, nothing has changed.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Expiration week, a positive bias and we'll see if we can get new all time highs somewhere by the end of the week.  Overbought and staying there which is the sign of a rally.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold rallied over ten bucks as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was good.  Very overextended on the technical indicators for the gold shares.  Reaching extremes in some cases.  That doesn't mean that the rally is over but it does mean that there isn't much more room to the upside for now.  Of course I wish I still had those GDX June calls that I sold last week.  A lot of money left on the table there.  Although I had a feeling that this is way things would play out, I could not risk the opposite happening as well.  No one could actually predict that the indicators would get this blown out to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a couple days left this week to keep running things up for stocks.  The VIX is now below 15, so the rally has legs.  Just waiting on new all time highs for the S&P.  Perhaps news of a trade deal at the end of next week will do it.  Certainly interest rates won't be getting in the way of any rally at this point.  Could we climb all the way through the July option cycle?  It isn't out of the question.  The overbought technical condition is calling for a sell signal but I just don't see it happening here at the moment.  As for the gold shares money tells the story there as they have attracted it.  Price and volume tell me that this rally has staying power.  The next step is waiting for some pullback and that is what I'll do.  I'm looking out to the September and October GDX call options.  There's resistance at 25 but once GDX gets through there it is a clean shot to 30.  There is nothing in the way.  So my guess is that if this rally is for real, we'll get there in the autumn.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight. 

A nice move higher today ahead of the Fed as the Dow soared 353 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We got a signal last night for a big move in the next two sessions from the McClellan oscillator.  Today takes care of that.  Positive trade front news as now the US and China will start negotiating again.  There's also a supposed meeting between the two leaders at the G-20 meeting at the end of next week.  There was other positive news for certain companies that the street liked to hear.  Interesting that it all comes out during options expiration week but that is the game we are playing.  It's not a surprise as the positive expiration bias needs something to get it going.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow but expect higher prices.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold rallied as well, gaining around $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Still overbought and staying there for the gold shares as well as the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The sideways consolidation has resolved itself to the upside for the major stock indices.  I guess at this point we can expect a trip to new all time highs for the S&P 500.  The VIX fell below its 50 day moving average today.  Unless we get something negative from the Fed tomorrow, we should move up for the rest of the week regardless of the overbought conditions.  Perhaps some profit taking before the end of the week.  However if we moved like this ahead of the Fed, I doubt that we'll be heading lower anytime soon.  That is what the market is saying at the moment.  Now that could all change with a negative headline but I don't think that it will this week.  Option expiration weeks are interesting times.  Europe was higher and Asia as well with the exception of NIKK.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.    

Just waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 23 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were relatively better that the large and that's a positive.  Sideways for a week now at the 50 day moving average for most of the major averages.  Short term overbought and staying there as well.  I would like to try the SPY June puts ahead of the Fed announcement but probably won't.  With less than a week now for the June option cycle, the risk is pretty strong.  But we'll see.  Perhaps I'll get brave before Wednesday at 11.  GE fell almost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  A waiting game here as well it seems.  The XAU and GDX had fractional upside moves on good volume.  Perhaps I should have held on to the GDX June calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market action.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and close to the moment of truth 15 level.  My guess is that all will be revealed on the markets reaction to the Fed statement on Wednesday.  I think everybody expects a no change in rates announcement with a dovish speech afterward.  Is it already in the market though?  Maybe another look at the SPY June puts is in order.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  I don't want to think that just because the last trade was a winner that I've got things figured out.  We all should know better than that.  I am still waiting for a gold pullback to try the calls there again as well.  But it seems like the volume just keeps coming into the gold shares and that is a bullish development for sure.  I will have to try and be patient for a set up.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading activity.

Another day of bouncing round as the Dow lost 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Expiration week is on tap and that usually has a positive bias.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will be the main market mover in my humble opinion.  The VIX got to its 50 day moving average today.  We're at the moment of truth here.  A break below and the rally will continue.  If the 50 day holds, a decline will take place.  We're oversold on the VIX but in rallies we stay that way.  Next week will tell the tale.  I'll consider a trade over the weekend if I can figure out which way to go.  GE was off eight cents on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher and finished well off the highs for the session.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  They too finished off of their highs for the day.  As much as I would have liked to hold on to the GDX June call trade, I sold my position today.  I did not get the best price on the day but I didn't get the worst either.  The gain was 275%.  I still think that the gold share calls are the place to be and I will look to try them again on weakness.  I do think that they could move higher next week but they are short term overbought and the options are running out of time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying to figure out just what's next for the market.  A run to new all time highs or a roll over for another decline?  I do think that next week will tell a lot because we are about to reach summer mode for traders.  Vacations, potential thin markets etc.  However we do remain at the mercy of the next tariff headline as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy.  I like the way the gold shares broke out on volume but it may be time for a rest there.  The weekly charts show more room to the upside though.  I would have liked to have the guts to hold on to that trade but the price movement today wasn't exactly positive and perhaps we're due for a breather there.  That was my guess.  We'll see how things unfold next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher after a pause as the Dow climbed 101 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We bounced around a lot today but a very late buying spree took the Dow up over 100.  Overbought on the short term indicators and staying that way.  That is the hallmark of a rally.  RUT had a good day and that's a plus.  The VIX continues in a sideways channel above its 50 day moving average.  The only caveat here is the low volume.  It is wise not to trust light volume rallies.  But we are almost to option expiration week so who knows?  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold continues to drift higher as the futures gained around eight bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Remember what I just said about light volume rallies.  Overbought and staying that way here as well.  I'm still holding on to my GDX June calls.  I really need to give some thought to simply getting out of this trade even with a little over a week to go.  We will not stay overbought here forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still trying to figure out where we go next here.  You can easily make a case for either direction in stocks.  We could drift higher if we don't get any negative tariff headlines before expiration.  We do have some possible Middle East tensions arriving with the bombing of a couple oil tankers.  There isn't any fundamental market news at the moment.  Waiting on the Fed statement next week as a change in rates is not in the cards this time around.  But that isn't until Wednesday and that's a long way off.  I'll ponder what to do with this GDX call trade tonight and take it from there.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The pause continues as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a broad decline here so I think things favor the bulls for now.  This has the feel of just a stop on the way to higher prices.  As long as we don't see a huge decline near term, we're probably heading higher.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are overbought and staying that way which is what occurs in up trends.  My GDX June calls are still in the black with seven days to go.  23.5 remains the target and hopefully I won't get too greedy if we get there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No tariff headlines or anything else to derail the process here this week.  That could all change tomorrow of course but we'll stick with what we've got.  Short term overbought or getting there for most of the major stock averages.  I'm expecting a run up into option expiration next week.  Not sure if it will take us to new all time highs on the S&P but it could.  We'll have the Fed to deal with in a week.  Should be a dovish statement and supportive to stocks.  But that's a week away.  The VIX continues sideways and it gives me a feeling that a big move there is coming up.  Which direction is the question.  The contracting Bollinger bands there also supports the big move theory.  But we can only guess at this point if it's up or down.  I do think something will happen before expiration though because it's almost time for summer vacations and players will be taking off.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Due for a pause and we got one today as the Dow shed 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  the summation index is moving higher.  We did open higher and close lower for a one day downside reversal.  The short term technical indicators are starting to turn back down and they haven't just yet.  So I do think things could go either way now.  The VIX is starting to move sideways and the Bollinger bands there are coming together.  I would not be surprised to see the market roll over here again.  I do think the odds are less favorable for a run to new highs but that isn't out of the question either.  8 days left in the June option cycle so a trade is out there in my humble opinion.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold attempted to stabilize today and was up a buck or so.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit.  If we can continue to move sideways here, then this trade has a chance to be profitable.  If we drop from here in all likelihood this trade will die.  I'm a believer in price and volume.  The way GDX moved up recently says to me that the uptrend is real.  But whether or not it gets higher before expiration is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The star appearing on the daily S&P candlestick chart yesterday doesn't look as ominous after todays price action.  But I still can't rule out that we've arrived at some type of short term top for the S&P.  If we move higher tomorrow then I'm wrong and today was the only pause we'll see.  It does seem like money around the world is moving back into stocks.  The lack of negative tariff talk seems to help.  That and jawboning by the worlds central bankers seems to have brought back the markets mojo.  We'll see how long it lasts.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  We did however, finish well off of the highs for the session in all the major averages.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition we now find ourselves in leads me to believe that a pause is in order.  The question is whether it is worth a trade or not.  We may have already passed the optimum point to try this short term idea.  Today could have been it.  We might simply wait for whatever pullback there is here to get the SPY June calls into the expiration next week.  Just throwing out ideas here for now.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold took a hit today as the tariffs on Mexico have been canceled.  The precious metal futures dropped $14 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU dropped a point, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit but it was cut in half today.  I may have missed the right time to sell here but I'm still holding them for now.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over now for the gold shares.  I'm looking for GDX to hang in there this week by moving sideways from here and then we'll see what happens after that.  Subject to change as this week progresses though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a pretty good rally from the recent lows but it is due for a pause here in my view.  I can't rule out a trip to new all time highs before expiration because we've made back up a lot of ground in a hurry.  However today looks like a doji (star) on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P and could be the sign of  a short term top.  We're overbought but we could stay that way as happens in solid up trends.  Tomorrows price action will go a long way to telling us where we're at.  Gold needs to hang on tomorrow if there's any hope for a consolidation instead of a drop.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but some markets were on holiday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 263 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned up.  The jobs report was light but that didn't matter to traders as they bid prices up.  I suppose the logic is that the Fed will cut rates but that's not a given.  We are getting to what I consider the first area of resistance at 2900 for the S&P 500.  However there is still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  So we'll have to see what happens when we get there and that could be Monday morning.  Still two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold only added a couple of bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar had a decent drop and it would have been better to see gold rally more today on that but it didn't.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares also finished off of their highs for the session.  It's been a nice rally for the gold shares here but it feels as though it's running out of steam here.  I am still holding my GDX June calls.  Overbought on the short term to be sure but I'm hoping for a little sideways action before an attempt at 23.5.  That is my target.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and that is positive going forward.  We were also able to hold on to the 50 week moving average line.  I still think that any decline in the near term can be bought but we've already moved quite a lot and the time for that SPY June calls may have passed.  Unless there's a dramatic turnaround in stocks next week, I think things are looking pretty good for the bulls.  The VIX was higher today with a rally and that's a caution flag.  But with still a lot of room to go in the short term indicators perhaps an attempt at the all time highs is in the cards.  You would not have thought that just a week ago and we are still at the mercy of the news headlines.  But who knows?  Maybe something positive on tariffs comes out and the market takes off again.  I'm just guessing with those statements.  The technicals do look like they favor higher prices from here though.  Gold is overbought and near resistance so a pause early next week is not out of the question.  Europe and Asia we're higher overnight as the risk on mode has come back.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend to try and figure out what to do next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing to build on this weeks gains as the Dow added 181 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions.  Today fulfills that.  It doesn't appear that we'll see a pullback to try the SPY June calls at this rate.  Tariffs yes, tariffs no and that seems to be what's driving things at the moment.  We're at the mercy of the news spin and that isn't exactly how we like to do it.  Technically speaking the major averages still have room to go higher on the short term indicators.  GE was up three cents on light volume.  Gold rose almost five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  Overbought here to be sure and I did consider selling my GDX June calls today.  But with still two weeks to go in the June cycle, I'm hanging on for more gain.  Not trying to be greedy here, I'd just like to make the most of the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With all of the tariff talk let's not forget we've got the employment report due out tomorrow.  Not sure what we'll see there but there should be some market movement off of that.  Unless we get a tariff headline and then the jobs report won't matter as much.  RUT hasn't participated in the last couple of sessions and we'll need to see some upside there soon to confirm the move higher in the Dow.  That's my view on things here.  TRAN was lower today as well so we don't have all hands on deck for the rally at the moment.  The breadth certainly hasn't been good with the exception of Monday.  I do still believe the move higher is for real though and will look for 2900 on the S&P 500 as the first line of resistance.  A pullback before then will have me taking a look at the SPY June calls.  Gold is overbought here and perhaps it will stay that way.  I'd welcome a sideways consolidation for a few days before moving higher in the ideal scenario department.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We did get follow through to the upside as the Dow gained 207 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even though.  The summation index is trending sideways for now.  We've broken through the declining tops lines on some of the major indices.  I'm willing to say that the decline that began in the beginning of May is over.  I would look to purchase some SPY June calls on any pull back in the near term.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk however the technical picture has improved and I think the trend is now up.  RUT was slightly lower today but we did close above 1500 there.  I'd keep a close eye on what happens here because RUT tends to be a leader.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  It appears that the gold shares have run out of steam here and I'm hoping for a sideways consolidation instead of an outright decline from here.  Todays price action was negative as we opened higher and spent the rest of the day selling off then moving sideways.  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit, so when to sell them becomes the question now.  With over two weeks left in the June option cycle, I'm inclined to hold them for now.  Short term overbought though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Upside follow through today was a good sign for the bulls.  The VIX is at 16 and the true test will be if it gets to 15 which is also its 50 day moving average.  If we can get through 15, the rally will have legs.  If not the selling will return.  Right now I feel as though we'll get through the 15 level.  If so the S&P 500 could make it back to resistance at 2900.  Hasn't happened yet but it's possible.  From there if it makes it, who knows?  Silver could not hold on to its gains today and the volume was heavy.  Ditto for gold.  That doesn't bode well for the precious metal stocks near term.  Sideways from here is what I'll be looking for but things could simply turn around as well.  Headline risk affects these stocks as well.  I'll hold on to my GDX June calls for now.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not with the huge gains that we saw in the US.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight.     

Now that was some kind of crazy bounce!  The Dow roared ahead by 512 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index should start to move sideways after todays action.  We were short term oversold but todays boost was from the Fed chairman.  Mr. Powell stated today that rate cuts could happen because of the trade tariffs.  That was all the market needed to hear.  Now that doesn't mean it will happen and I doubt that it will.  But it gave players the sense that the Fed will save the market going forward.  We are now right at the recent declining tops line and resistance for the S&P 500.  Any follow through tomorrow should break the line and signal that the decline has ended.  We'll just have to wait and see but it appears that will be the case.  GE jumped almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold was subdued today and only added another $3.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on low volume.  It appears that the run higher in the gold shares may be over for now.  We're short term overbought there now.  The question is do we consolidate here before moving higher or it that it for the rally?  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit and I will have to decide what to do here.  There are still over two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  I'm inclined to hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  So we got the bounce and now we're at the declining tops line.  Tomorrow should tell a lot.  It appears the move lower recently in stocks on some of the major indices looks like a measured move down.  A move lower followed by a small increase, followed by the same length of move lower.  If that is true the downside has ended.  But today could have been a one day wonder as well.  We'll know more tomorrow.  The gold shares are now overbought.  If we stay that way, there will be more gains to come.  If not we could simply move lower from here and the gains from my GDX call trade will evaporate.  The trading is never easy.  We are not in a seasonal favorable time for gold normally.  However we are still in the headline risk mode and that may make things different for the time being.  That's a guess on my part.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow did manage to close with a gain of 4 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Despite the good breadth, the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was over 100 points lower.  That is not a good sign.  The summation index continues to the downside as well.  The market remains long overdue for a bounce of some sorts.  The VIX almost made it to 20 but fell back.  RUT eeked out a gain so maybe there is hope for a pause in the decline.  The major stock indices remain oversold.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out there.  But I would expect some kind of upside attempt to occur and soon.  Whether or not it turns things around is another story.  GE was up almost a dime on light volume.  Gold rallied strong again on the flight to safety trade.  The precious metal futures added $18 to make it to the first resistance zone at about $1325.  The US dollar fell.  The XAU jumped 3 points, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was heavy again.  Higher prices with volume means that a rally is underway.  My GDX June calls doubled today and then some.  23.5 is the resistance near term for GDX and I should probably get out if we get there.  This index has moved 10% in three days and we know that rate of ascent won't keep up.  But for now it looks like chasing this idea may pan out.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Looking at the declines in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it appears that the big cap tech stocks were to blame.  Perhaps that masked some underlying buying in the general market.  Plenty of my technical indicators are saying now is a time to buy.  But it's a tough thing to do when the seasonality is wrong and the trade headlines are dominating the news.  I should say the negative trade headlines.  A month ago all was looking rosy for some kind of US/China deal.  The market rallied on every nice thing these two had to say about each other.  What we are experiencing now is the exact opposite.  But that doesn't mean we won't go back to the love fest either.  All in all there is still plenty of time in the June option cycle for anything to happen.  Silver finally broke through its declining tops line today and the volume was decent.  It wasn't a decisive break though so it's worth keeping an eye on.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Well, so much for my short term bounce thesis.  The Dow sank another 354 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tariffs on Mexico now a possibility as the headline risk environment persists.  Oversold and staying that way as the bounce that I thought was due did not happen.  The measuring objective on the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 is 2650.  We're 100 S&P points from there.  RUT has led the way lower and there isn't any support on that chart that I can see.  I suppose we'll just continue to get even more oversold.  Kicking myself for not owning the puts but the option premiums were very high with the extra week in the June cycle.  There will be other opportunities.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $17.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX was up over 3/4.  Volume exploded on the upside.  There was a gap higher at the open for the gold shares and volume confirmed the move up.  I decided to try and chase it and bought some GDX June calls.  My order did get filled and they closed where I purchased them.  Three weeks to go in the June option cycle and this isn't my normal trading strategy.  However with the price move higher combined with the volume, I think this trade has a chance to be a winner.  Gold itself broke out above $1300 and its near term declining tops line.  A run to $1350 in the next three weeks is not out of the question.  Silver however did not follow and that could be an issue going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks to me like head and shoulders tops have been activated and there's more room to move lower for the major stock indexes.  2650 is the measuring objective for the S&P 500 in my view.  So we'll see.  I'm chasing the GDX call trade, following price and volume.  We'll see if there's any follow through higher on Monday morning.  There will be plenty of charts to go over this weekend as it is clear that the market may be on the verge of an actual breakdown.  I may be early in calling for that but if the summation index keeps falling it will approach the zero line.  If it breaks through the zero line, the market will fall apart.  We aren't there yet and I'm not sure that will be the outcome here.  But it is something to keep an eye on.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Mild gains today as the Dow was up 43 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold all the way around here and I do think that the SPY June calls are in order for a very short term trade.  That's the most of what I can make out of what is happening here.  I'm probably not going to attempt that trade though as I am waiting for a light volume snap back in order to get short.  What looks to me like head and shoulders tops on many of the major stock averages are still in place.  But I would not be surprised if we rally in the near term.  GE was up a dime on average volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up a point and GDX gained 1/3 on light volume.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month coming up tomorrow so we might see some squaring of positions ahead of June.  Obviously it's been a down month for sure for stocks.  Perhaps we'll see more selling in June to set us up for some type of summer rally.  That's a guess of course as we will have to wait and see what the market tells us.  The VIX remains above 17 and I'd like to see it drift back to the 50 day moving average at around 15 in order to try the SPY June puts.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  I am getting some longer term signals that the market is nearing a buy on some indicators.  However we do remain in a negative seasonal time period and the threat of a negative headline remains.  Getting long should probably be a short term proposition at this time.  I could be wrong.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The Dow got clobbered again today and lost 221 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Support was broken today on the major indices that we've been discussing.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but there isn't much more positive that I can say.  Oversold, staying there and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I did consider getting some SPY June calls today since we are so blown out to the downside.  But that would not be a wise move either, as we've probably got a long way to go down if the head and shoulders tops are really in place.  So I am going to wait and see if I get a chance in the next few days to get the SPY June puts.  If not, I'll look for another idea.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  It looks like the gold shares are trying to build a bottom here.  However if the US dollar continues to rise it would not help the gold shares.  I'm waiting to get some GDX longer term calls and I'll continue to wait.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are still some potential RSI positive divergences on the major stock averages but we would have to see a move higher tomorrow for those to have a chance.  But the breakdown in support doesn't bode well for the divergences to pan out.  Although if the RSI theory does work, now would be the time to try the SPY June calls.  I just can't bring myself to do it though.  The summation index continues lower and I'm taking my lead from that.  The VIX rose above 18 today but it still has room to move up as well.  I think that I'll just sit out the rest of this week too but of course that could change with the market action tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight with Europe taking the worst of it.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside to start a shortened trading week.  The Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  It looks like I won't be getting a chance to try the SPY June puts unless things turn around tomorrow.  The S&P is right at the support at the 2800 level.  It certainly doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  Buyers are on strike as it appears a slow down in economic activity is in the cards.  At least that is what the bond market is saying as yields have dropped.  It looks like the potential head and shoulders tops on some of the major indices are about to manifest themselves.  The market really needs to hold on tomorrow or it will bet ugly and fast.  GE dropped around 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off about $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  No flight to safety here and gold remains unloved.  I am still looking at the longer term gold share calls though.  But there is no hurry to purchase them despite the oversold technical condition in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market cannot seem to hold on to any gains lately.  Todays price action was particularly negative as we reversed course and then closed on the lows for the day.  The short term technical indicators also rolled over from an already oversold condition.  The levels to watch are 2800 on the S&P 500 and 1500 on RUT.  A decisive break on either one will spell doom for the bulls.  We're in a negative seasonal time frame as well.  So heading lower would not be a surprise.  The index options remain pricey though as there is still a lot of time left in the June option cycle.  I can only hope that things hold up here for a better entry point but I doubt it.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll be keeping a close eye on what transpires in the markets tomorrow.   

A quiet Friday ahead of a long weekend as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Less noise from the trade war today but it will always be in the background it seems.  The VIX remains above the 15 level so it is still a time to be careful.  RUT has managed to hold the 1500 level for now.  My view is that the stock market remain in a precarious situation and caution is warranted.  I'm still looking to purchase some SPY June puts if the opportunity presents itself.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major stock indices.  There are some potential positive RSI divergences for a few of the indexes.  We would have to see a rally sooner rather than later for the divergences to pan out.  It isn't out of the question but I'm remaining with my bearish tilt for now.  I'll recheck the charts over the long weekend and determine what course of action to take from there.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Heading lower as the Dow fell 286 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but came close to breaching the support at 2800 for the S&P.  I do believe this level will break eventually and hope to own some SPY June puts before that occurs.  But the market may not give me the opportunity.  I still think that the Dow is forming a head and shoulders top here.  The 200 day moving average is holding for now but a break there will trigger the pattern.  We'll still hope for a light volume rally back towards the 50 day moving average for the set up.  But the market might not be so generous.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold added almost $10 on the flight to safety.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished barely positive after being higher early on.  Not flowing gold here is a negative as interest in these stocks is almost non existent.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trade war is back in the picture as worries about that have resurfaced.  No real news about that other than rumblings here and there.  But as long as the perception is that nothing will be done, the market will worry.  Just as the positive musings about the tariffs led to rallies, the inference that nothing will get done leads to declines.  It is not the best background to be trading but it is what it is.  The short term technical indicators remain more oversold than overbought.  The fact that we cannot get a sustained rally out of that is concerning for the bulls.  I'm sticking with my scenario of buying some SPY puts on a light volume rally from here.  If we simply drop now that trade is off.  the VIX is once again above the 15 level and that is something to keep an eye on as well.  One day left before a holiday weekend and I doubt we'll see a lot of buying ahead of that.  Europe and Asia were lower as we are seeing liquidation around the globe.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We bounced around today but ended the session lower as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  it tried to turn around but failed for now.  Nothing really new to report today, all technical conditions remain the same.  It is a good week to watch in my opinion and that is what we'll do.  Patience is required for the next set up and we'll simply wait for that.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple more days before a holiday weekend in the US.  Combine that with the extra week in the June option cycle and you have your reasons for sitting things out.  I do believe that we'll get some kind of decent opportunity in the S&P for the June cycle.  I just don't what or when that will be.  I can say that it probably won't be this week.  So we'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was up a bit and Europe mixed in the overnight trading.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 197 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  This should stop the summation index from heading down.  No news to speak of as the market is simply moving on its own volition.  A nice light volume rally to the 2900 level on the S&P would set up nicely for the SPY June puts.  That is what I hoping for at the moment.  Everything that was written here yesterday remains the same as far as the strategy and the technical factors.  Waiting out the week would seem to be the best course of action to take at this time.  it is a holiday weekend on tap as well.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off slightly on the futures and the US dollar was just the opposite.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Oversold here but no interest to take positions by the major players as of yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Seems like we're just hanging around now in the market, waiting for the next move to take shape.  The US/China trade talks seem to have been put on hold.  There will be a meeting of the leaders but that won't happen until the end of June.  That has moved headline risk to the back burner for now.  So it's a wait and see approach for me at the moment.  Earnings have pretty much come and gone.  We're waiting for the next market catalyst and I'm not sure where it will come from.  Patience for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 84 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is moving lower.  We'll take our cues from that.  I'd like to get some SPY June puts if we get some kind of a set up.  But it may be that the market simply heads lower from here.  I looked things over this weekend and that is the strategy that I've determined.  Breadth is starting to weaken here on a consistent basis which is the opposite of what had been happening.  You can blame it on the tariff wars or whatever you'd like.  I'm hoping we'll move sideways here to take out some of the option premium as the prices are really high.  The extra week in the June cycle doesn't help on that front.  Headline risk seems to be taking a back seat here in the near term.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  Ditto for the XAU and GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's a potential head and shoulders top forming on the Dow daily chart.  The NASDAQ had a gap down today on the open.  RUT continues lower.  Most of the short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold.  But we're not seeing the usual bounce up from there and that is why I'm leaning towards the bearish side here.  Negative seasonality is another factor.  I'd like to see things move sideways for a week or so and then attempt to purchase some SPY June puts.  But the market usually doesn't cooperate with my wishes.  Like I said, we may just head down from here.  We'll have to see how the week goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower today as the market dropped in the final hour.  I'm not sure if it was expiration related or what.  The Dow fell 98 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around here but todays breadth didn't help.  The VIX is right around the 16 level which makes the beginning of next week important.  If the VIX can get down below 16 and stay there, the decline has ended in my view.  However if the VIX climbs early next week and the market falls then that changed things.  We'll just have to wait and see.  The seasonally good period for stocks is over, so I'm thinking that sideways will be the most we can hope for now.  Not to mention the market is at the mercy of the next headline out of China or the US.  So it's a trickier than usual trading environment.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher again.  The gold shares did not follow though.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling better.  Done with the medical stuff for now and full attention can be given to the game.  There's an extra week in the June option cycle so there's no rush to do anything until a decent signal comes forth.  Option premiums are high.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  The S&P 500 is hanging around its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range.  Things could pretty much go either way here.  I'll have to check out some other things over the weekend.  RUT remains more oversold than overbought on a short term basis.  It has also been traveling in a sideways zone since February.  If it were to take out the low support at 1500, that would be the signal to buy some index puts.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't know if it will.  But it is something to follow as RUT is generally a leader for the market.  Again, I'll be checking things out over the weekend and we'll go from there.  Asia was generally higher with the exception of Hong Kong, while Europe was down.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow added to its gains today as it rose another 214 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive again.  The summation index is trying to turn around and I'm guessing that it will.  Trade tensions have moved to the back seat and buyers have returned.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm tired and just back from the hospital.  The blog will be short.  The VIX is back below 16 and its 200 day moving average.  That is a plus for the bulls.  But we'll just have to see where it goes from here.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  I'll be taking it easy tonight.  More on the markets tomorrow.

Another day of gains as the Dow rose 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower but is also trying to turn around.  No headline problems today for stocks.  The short term technical indicators have stopped going down but haven't turned around yet.  The VIX is moving lower and that's a plus for the bulls.  Moving averages are holding things for the most part on the major indexes with the exception of RUT.  Only a couple of days left in the May option cycle.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold was little changed, ditto the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm a bit distracted with a hospital visit coming tomorrow morning.  If all goes well the blog will return tomorrow.  We've stabilized for a couple of days after Mondays crushing blow.  The fact that we've held up for now it good but it could all turn on a dime.  The next quote out of the US or China could move things up or down.  I'm hoping we'll take a break from that soon since these countries leaders aren't getting together until the end of June.  Technically we're short term oversold.  The blog is short today as my mind is on my health.  Trading has to take a back seat and that is no way to do it.  The game requires your undivided attention.  If you can't give it that, then the sidelines make perfect sense.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the news this evening.   

Got a snap back today as the Dow rose 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  No real trade news today as the market tries to regain its footing.  Oversold here on a short term basis to be sure.  The question is whether we see just a bounce from here or is this the bottom of a roughly 5% pull back in the S&P 500.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as we are still at the mercy of the next US/China headline.  But if I had to guess, I'd say that the worst is over for now.  Perhaps some sideways consolidation before the next move is what you should be looking for.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  gold gave back some of yesterdays gains and dropped around five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The 200 day moving averages have held things for the most part here with the exception of RUT.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Most of the indices today fell back from their highs for the session.  So there are still people looking to sell.  When we see some strength into the close, that will be a clue that the sellers a diminishing.  The VIX looks like it has put in a top here to me.  A close back below its 200 day moving average would be another positive clue.  Those are things to look for and they haven't happened yet.  A renewed decline from here that takes out the 200 day moving averages for the major indices would be a red flag.  But we're at the risk of the next headline and that's tough thing to try and trade.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded today as the trade war between the US and China heated up.  The most watched index fell 617 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The positive price action and candlesticks from the previous two sessions were negated.  Moving average support has been broken now on many indices.  The S&P 500 is just about at the next support of 2800.  But RUT looks like it wants to head lower and there is still room on the short term technical indicators to move down.  RUT is generally a leader one way or the other.  The market is now hostage to the trade headlines and they are negative at the moment.  If there would be some kind of positive break through, we'd see a nice rally.  But it doesn't look like that is in the cards as the hard-liners have taken over the narrative.  Perhaps we move a bit lower before an oversold bounce but that's a guess as usual.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume.  Gold finally found some buyers and was up $13 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Finally a flight to safety on the trade war news.  Plenty of room on the technical indicators here to go higher.  No trades in mind for me here yet though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted as I have a medical procedure scheduled for Thursday so my mind is not in the right place to trade.  The game really needs your full attention to be successful.  I don't have that now.  4 days left in the May option cycle.  Whatever I had thought about market direction is now confirmed wrong after todays price action.  The market does not look like it will hold up as I had planned and new all time highs are now off the table.  Even though nothing has fundamentally changed in the past week, we cannot ignore the price action.  We're at the mercy of the next headline or quote out of the US or China.  That is a tough way to make a living.  My mind isn't completely in the game here anyway so I'll be on the sidelines until further notice.  Getting oversold on the stock indexes but not there yet.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll see what kind of rhetoric shows up overnight.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 114 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Tariffs came and it was already in the market.  Buying to lows today would have worked.  I just couldn't bring myself to do it.  The US/China drama isn't over though as a deal has yet to be done.  China says it plans on some kind of retaliation, so we'll have to see what transpires over the weekend.  The technical picture looks brighter though as moving averages have held for now.  The daily candlestick charts look promising as well, with potential hammers in place.  Plus the short term indicators are turning back up.  Of course that could all change with one negative headline but it could also lead to a rally with a positive one.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite an interesting week in the markets.  The VIX has now rolled back down and that is a plus for the bulls.  On the longer term charts for the major averages there is a bearish potential double top in place if we don't rally back up and take out the recent highs.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't think that it will but it's something to keep an eye on.  Something else to watch is the weekly chart for RUT.  It hasn't been able to make it back above its 50 week moving average.  RUT is usually a leader, so I would keep an eye on it here.  Of course we're at the mercy of the news this weekend and anything that comes out of the US/China discussions.  It seems that the raising of the Chinese tariffs by the US didn't have the negative effect that most thought it would.  Or perhaps today was just some enormous short covering going into the weekend.  Whatever the case we should know more on Monday morning.  Option expiration week is upon us but I'm not sure that the usual positive bias will take effect.  That's a guess on my part.  It looks like the SPY May call trade was to be done today on the lows, so I wouldn't chase that idea anymore.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what else is out there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another loser on the day as the Dow fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving down.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  Perhaps today was it as the Dow was off around 450 points early on.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The price action today looks like it is setting up for a short term bottom.  That would be my guess as the deadline for the tariffs is tomorrow and I'm pretty sure there will be some kind of last second deal that saves the day.  It is kind of ridiculous but that's the reality that we're in at the moment.  The daily VIX candlesticks chart also point towards some downside movement in that indicator coming up.  So don't be surprised by a huge rally tomorrow.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold bounced a few bucks higher on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  These stocks are simply out of favor now for whatever reasons.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did look at the May SPY calls today but the premiums were higher than usual due to the recent volatility.  So I didn't try that trade although I think that it will be successful on a short term basis.  The market is currently being held hostage by Trump and China.  You always have the choice not to play the game and I think that is appropriate for now.  Option premiums along with risk have been elevated due to the stand off between these two.  There will be some kind of save face announcement before the tariffs take place and the market will breathe a sigh of relief.  That is what I think will happen.  It would be comical if there weren't so much money involved on a trading and market basis.  Technically speaking, we are more oversold than overbought but that doesn't seem to matter when the headlines take over.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what happens tonight and finish the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow came well off of its highs for the session and barely stayed positive.  The most watched index was up 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P were both lower.  We were positive for most of the day but things dropped in the final half hour.  Tariffs tensions loom and Friday will be a key.  I still expect some type of resolution before then but we're running out of time.  The VIX fell back again from higher levels today and that implies a move lower in the near term.  But things can turn on a dime with headline risk and I wouldn't count out any scenario going forward.  It makes for tougher than usual trading.  I'd like to try the SPY May calls with only seven days to go because I do not think either side wants an all out trade war.  Timing is the concern as always for the trade.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Today price action portends lower prices going forward but we'll see.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 2850 for the first line of defense.  That's where the 50 day moving average lies and it's where previous near term tops are.  That would be the logical spot to try some SPY calls if you wanted to do so.  It would be risky though because the short term technical indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  But if you kept the time frame short and got out when you showed some kind of profit, it would make sense.  If we knife through that level, then the market is in more trouble than I think.  Always an interesting game.  Gold has not reacted as you would expect here and is probably weaker than I give it credit for.  I should probably wait until the summer to try anything here again.  Europe up and Asia down overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The Dow got clobbered today as it lost 473 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading down.  Tariff wars are back between the US and China with a Friday deadline.  We were off just about 600 points but made a comeback in the final half hour.  All the major indices were down but at least we didn't close on the lows.  The VIX jumped to almost a reading of 22 as volatility has returned.  I'm not sure exactly how long these conditions will last.  My best guess is that some kind of compromise is going to occur before the Friday deadline.  I do not think that either party wants an all out trade war.  But we'll just have to wait and see what happens.  However a huge rally in the next few days isn't out of the question in my mind.  Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past couple of days.  It's all simply rhetoric and mindless threats at this point.  Not to mention squeezing the low volatility players.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 7/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  It look like trying the GDX calls here would have worked but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on all the major indexes have rolled over.  Some of them still have room to drop.  We're approaching the 50 day moving averages for some.  Whether or not thing hold up there will determine if we're heading down to the 200 days or not.  The VIX is pretty overbought now and I would not be surprised to see a pause in the selling.  But the summation index has headed down with gusto, so care is needed on the long side.  Headline risk is now extreme in either direction and that isn't a good environment for trading.  Whipsaws become the rule and not the exception.  I would tread carefully here and be ready to exit trades after quick profits.  I do not expect an extended move lower here but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.        

A volatile start to the week as the Dow opened 450 points lower and recovered during the session to close with a loss of 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The US/China trade talks are back in the picture as US president Trump said that if there is no deal this week, the trade tariffs will be increased.  That was quite a shock for the markets to handle but it seems as though they did.  Headline risk is back to being front and center for the markets.  So it could be an interesting week.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls again on the assumption that an early sell off would be followed by buying in gold as a flight to safety.  The gold shares didn't sell off early with the market and I canceled the order.  This was an idea that had to happen quickly and it didn't.  I do like the way the S&P came back today but I wasn't looking at the calls here.  With a chance now that the talks could collapse, the risk has now changed overnight.  I will probably remain on the sidelines as originally planned.  GE lost a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold ended flat on the session as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished flat as well on light volume.  If gold can't get moving higher after todays volatility, I don't know what the catalyst will be for higher prices in the precious metal.  I suppose I'll be waiting to see if I can do a summer trade now here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but a little distracted with a doctors appointment tomorrow.  Back to the headline risk environment.  It's great if you're on the right side of the news but a total disaster if you're not.  The technical picture isn't as clear now as some of the major indices have had the indicators roll over while others have not.  Combine that with the whim of the politicans involved and you have a climate of uncertainty.  My best idea here is to wait it out but that could change with more data coming in.  The fact that things came back from the dead today for the market is a positive.  My gut feeling is that some type of agreement will be reached even if it has no teeth.  This way both countries can save face and claim victory.  Hollow as it is, that would be the best result that we can hope for at this point.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with a couple of markets closed for holiday.  We will be keeping an eye out on whatever news comes in overnight.  

The market roared back on a good jobs report as the Dow gained 197 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of 4 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  RUT is breaking out above its near term resistance and that's a plus as well.  Too late for the SPY May calls as yesterdays lows were the proper entry point there.  The VIX is back below 13 and the middle of the week selling for stocks is in the rear view mirror.  We should set new all time highs again for the S&P next week.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold even had some buying as the futures rose around $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I sold all of my positions in the GDX May calls to get them off the books.  It was practically a total loss as the trend line break this week was the kiss of death.  I'll come back to getting long here in the summer perhaps if GDX can build a base at the 18 level.  It certainly didn't help here that NEM had to shut down one of its leading gold producing mines and the stock got clobbered leading GDX lower.  But you simply chalk it up as another loss and move on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a short term shake out this week and now it's back to moving higher for stocks.  It helps that the US market is where everyone around the world wants to be.  There still seems to be plenty of money around to chase stocks higher.  At some point that will change but I don't see it just yet.  We'll need to see some more IPOs head higher for companies that are losing money.  We don't have that kind of froth yet so keep an eye out for it.  I still expect the rally to continue into this months option expiration.  Asia was mixed and Europe positive to close out the week.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle and I don't have any trading ideas as yet.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what I can come up with.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We did get some downside follow through as the Dow lost 122 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trending lower but it isn't dramatic just yet.  The VIX almost made it up to the 16 level but quickly turned around.  I think that the decline is over and that we'll be heading back up to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before option expiration.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Now if we continue lower on the jobs report tomorrow, then that thesis is out the window.  The TRAN was up good today and RUT posted a gain as well.  So I am certainly not all that bearish here and expect higher prices are coming.  GE was up over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was lower again today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX May calls are effectively dead.  I've got open orders in to salvage not having them expire but they probably won't be filled.  So it will be 100% losses tallied there.  Not a lot of money but these trades are doomed.  The weekly up trend line is now broken for the gold shares.  Support doesn't come in until much lower levels.  Perhaps the calls can be tried again in the July to October time frame.  There's some support for gold at 1250 but better support at 1200.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A couple of days of decline for the markets but nothing serious in my view.  We'll see what the employment picture looks like and go from there.  I'm not looking at the SPY May calls as the next trade but it may be too late already.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Another couple of losing trades on the books but you've got to keep on going in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  It fell 163 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The Fed announcement came out and there was a brief rally.  I guess the market didn't like what it heard in the news conference afterward.  The VIX finally got a pop and is now above its 50 day moving average.  There was weakness across the board for stocks.  We'll see if there is any staying power to the decline the rest of the week.  GE turned around as well and lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold dropped too and the futures lost $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX calls trades are dead.  Unless there is a comeback like last week, GDX will be breaking its weekly up trend line from last year.  That is bearish.  Oversold now for GDX but staying that way.  That is a negative as well.  Barring a miracle, it's just another couple of losing trades for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Is today the start of a long awaited decline for stocks or just another blip on the way to new all time highs in the future?  I think that we'll know more when the week is over.  We've got the jobs report and the market reaction to that to sift through on Friday.  No real technical damage was done to the major averages today.  The short term technical indicators have started to roll over.  I'm still in the camp for higher prices going forward but we'll know more by the end of the week.  We are entering the seasonal weak period for stocks but it rarely actually begins on May 1st.  Stay tuned.  Asia was mostly closed overnight and Europe was mixed.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through in the US Thursday.