The rally continues as the Dow gained 263 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned up.  The jobs report was light but that didn't matter to traders as they bid prices up.  I suppose the logic is that the Fed will cut rates but that's not a given.  We are getting to what I consider the first area of resistance at 2900 for the S&P 500.  However there is still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  So we'll have to see what happens when we get there and that could be Monday morning.  Still two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold only added a couple of bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar had a decent drop and it would have been better to see gold rally more today on that but it didn't.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares also finished off of their highs for the session.  It's been a nice rally for the gold shares here but it feels as though it's running out of steam here.  I am still holding my GDX June calls.  Overbought on the short term to be sure but I'm hoping for a little sideways action before an attempt at 23.5.  That is my target.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and that is positive going forward.  We were also able to hold on to the 50 week moving average line.  I still think that any decline in the near term can be bought but we've already moved quite a lot and the time for that SPY June calls may have passed.  Unless there's a dramatic turnaround in stocks next week, I think things are looking pretty good for the bulls.  The VIX was higher today with a rally and that's a caution flag.  But with still a lot of room to go in the short term indicators perhaps an attempt at the all time highs is in the cards.  You would not have thought that just a week ago and we are still at the mercy of the news headlines.  But who knows?  Maybe something positive on tariffs comes out and the market takes off again.  I'm just guessing with those statements.  The technicals do look like they favor higher prices from here though.  Gold is overbought and near resistance so a pause early next week is not out of the question.  Europe and Asia we're higher overnight as the risk on mode has come back.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend to try and figure out what to do next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing to build on this weeks gains as the Dow added 181 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions.  Today fulfills that.  It doesn't appear that we'll see a pullback to try the SPY June calls at this rate.  Tariffs yes, tariffs no and that seems to be what's driving things at the moment.  We're at the mercy of the news spin and that isn't exactly how we like to do it.  Technically speaking the major averages still have room to go higher on the short term indicators.  GE was up three cents on light volume.  Gold rose almost five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  Overbought here to be sure and I did consider selling my GDX June calls today.  But with still two weeks to go in the June cycle, I'm hanging on for more gain.  Not trying to be greedy here, I'd just like to make the most of the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With all of the tariff talk let's not forget we've got the employment report due out tomorrow.  Not sure what we'll see there but there should be some market movement off of that.  Unless we get a tariff headline and then the jobs report won't matter as much.  RUT hasn't participated in the last couple of sessions and we'll need to see some upside there soon to confirm the move higher in the Dow.  That's my view on things here.  TRAN was lower today as well so we don't have all hands on deck for the rally at the moment.  The breadth certainly hasn't been good with the exception of Monday.  I do still believe the move higher is for real though and will look for 2900 on the S&P 500 as the first line of resistance.  A pullback before then will have me taking a look at the SPY June calls.  Gold is overbought here and perhaps it will stay that way.  I'd welcome a sideways consolidation for a few days before moving higher in the ideal scenario department.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We did get follow through to the upside as the Dow gained 207 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even though.  The summation index is trending sideways for now.  We've broken through the declining tops lines on some of the major indices.  I'm willing to say that the decline that began in the beginning of May is over.  I would look to purchase some SPY June calls on any pull back in the near term.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk however the technical picture has improved and I think the trend is now up.  RUT was slightly lower today but we did close above 1500 there.  I'd keep a close eye on what happens here because RUT tends to be a leader.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  It appears that the gold shares have run out of steam here and I'm hoping for a sideways consolidation instead of an outright decline from here.  Todays price action was negative as we opened higher and spent the rest of the day selling off then moving sideways.  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit, so when to sell them becomes the question now.  With over two weeks left in the June option cycle, I'm inclined to hold them for now.  Short term overbought though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Upside follow through today was a good sign for the bulls.  The VIX is at 16 and the true test will be if it gets to 15 which is also its 50 day moving average.  If we can get through 15, the rally will have legs.  If not the selling will return.  Right now I feel as though we'll get through the 15 level.  If so the S&P 500 could make it back to resistance at 2900.  Hasn't happened yet but it's possible.  From there if it makes it, who knows?  Silver could not hold on to its gains today and the volume was heavy.  Ditto for gold.  That doesn't bode well for the precious metal stocks near term.  Sideways from here is what I'll be looking for but things could simply turn around as well.  Headline risk affects these stocks as well.  I'll hold on to my GDX June calls for now.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not with the huge gains that we saw in the US.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight.     

Now that was some kind of crazy bounce!  The Dow roared ahead by 512 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index should start to move sideways after todays action.  We were short term oversold but todays boost was from the Fed chairman.  Mr. Powell stated today that rate cuts could happen because of the trade tariffs.  That was all the market needed to hear.  Now that doesn't mean it will happen and I doubt that it will.  But it gave players the sense that the Fed will save the market going forward.  We are now right at the recent declining tops line and resistance for the S&P 500.  Any follow through tomorrow should break the line and signal that the decline has ended.  We'll just have to wait and see but it appears that will be the case.  GE jumped almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold was subdued today and only added another $3.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on low volume.  It appears that the run higher in the gold shares may be over for now.  We're short term overbought there now.  The question is do we consolidate here before moving higher or it that it for the rally?  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit and I will have to decide what to do here.  There are still over two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  I'm inclined to hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  So we got the bounce and now we're at the declining tops line.  Tomorrow should tell a lot.  It appears the move lower recently in stocks on some of the major indices looks like a measured move down.  A move lower followed by a small increase, followed by the same length of move lower.  If that is true the downside has ended.  But today could have been a one day wonder as well.  We'll know more tomorrow.  The gold shares are now overbought.  If we stay that way, there will be more gains to come.  If not we could simply move lower from here and the gains from my GDX call trade will evaporate.  The trading is never easy.  We are not in a seasonal favorable time for gold normally.  However we are still in the headline risk mode and that may make things different for the time being.  That's a guess on my part.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow did manage to close with a gain of 4 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Despite the good breadth, the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was over 100 points lower.  That is not a good sign.  The summation index continues to the downside as well.  The market remains long overdue for a bounce of some sorts.  The VIX almost made it to 20 but fell back.  RUT eeked out a gain so maybe there is hope for a pause in the decline.  The major stock indices remain oversold.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out there.  But I would expect some kind of upside attempt to occur and soon.  Whether or not it turns things around is another story.  GE was up almost a dime on light volume.  Gold rallied strong again on the flight to safety trade.  The precious metal futures added $18 to make it to the first resistance zone at about $1325.  The US dollar fell.  The XAU jumped 3 points, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was heavy again.  Higher prices with volume means that a rally is underway.  My GDX June calls doubled today and then some.  23.5 is the resistance near term for GDX and I should probably get out if we get there.  This index has moved 10% in three days and we know that rate of ascent won't keep up.  But for now it looks like chasing this idea may pan out.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Looking at the declines in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it appears that the big cap tech stocks were to blame.  Perhaps that masked some underlying buying in the general market.  Plenty of my technical indicators are saying now is a time to buy.  But it's a tough thing to do when the seasonality is wrong and the trade headlines are dominating the news.  I should say the negative trade headlines.  A month ago all was looking rosy for some kind of US/China deal.  The market rallied on every nice thing these two had to say about each other.  What we are experiencing now is the exact opposite.  But that doesn't mean we won't go back to the love fest either.  All in all there is still plenty of time in the June option cycle for anything to happen.  Silver finally broke through its declining tops line today and the volume was decent.  It wasn't a decisive break though so it's worth keeping an eye on.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Well, so much for my short term bounce thesis.  The Dow sank another 354 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tariffs on Mexico now a possibility as the headline risk environment persists.  Oversold and staying that way as the bounce that I thought was due did not happen.  The measuring objective on the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 is 2650.  We're 100 S&P points from there.  RUT has led the way lower and there isn't any support on that chart that I can see.  I suppose we'll just continue to get even more oversold.  Kicking myself for not owning the puts but the option premiums were very high with the extra week in the June cycle.  There will be other opportunities.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $17.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX was up over 3/4.  Volume exploded on the upside.  There was a gap higher at the open for the gold shares and volume confirmed the move up.  I decided to try and chase it and bought some GDX June calls.  My order did get filled and they closed where I purchased them.  Three weeks to go in the June option cycle and this isn't my normal trading strategy.  However with the price move higher combined with the volume, I think this trade has a chance to be a winner.  Gold itself broke out above $1300 and its near term declining tops line.  A run to $1350 in the next three weeks is not out of the question.  Silver however did not follow and that could be an issue going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks to me like head and shoulders tops have been activated and there's more room to move lower for the major stock indexes.  2650 is the measuring objective for the S&P 500 in my view.  So we'll see.  I'm chasing the GDX call trade, following price and volume.  We'll see if there's any follow through higher on Monday morning.  There will be plenty of charts to go over this weekend as it is clear that the market may be on the verge of an actual breakdown.  I may be early in calling for that but if the summation index keeps falling it will approach the zero line.  If it breaks through the zero line, the market will fall apart.  We aren't there yet and I'm not sure that will be the outcome here.  But it is something to keep an eye on.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Mild gains today as the Dow was up 43 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold all the way around here and I do think that the SPY June calls are in order for a very short term trade.  That's the most of what I can make out of what is happening here.  I'm probably not going to attempt that trade though as I am waiting for a light volume snap back in order to get short.  What looks to me like head and shoulders tops on many of the major stock averages are still in place.  But I would not be surprised if we rally in the near term.  GE was up a dime on average volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up a point and GDX gained 1/3 on light volume.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month coming up tomorrow so we might see some squaring of positions ahead of June.  Obviously it's been a down month for sure for stocks.  Perhaps we'll see more selling in June to set us up for some type of summer rally.  That's a guess of course as we will have to wait and see what the market tells us.  The VIX remains above 17 and I'd like to see it drift back to the 50 day moving average at around 15 in order to try the SPY June puts.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  I am getting some longer term signals that the market is nearing a buy on some indicators.  However we do remain in a negative seasonal time period and the threat of a negative headline remains.  Getting long should probably be a short term proposition at this time.  I could be wrong.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The Dow got clobbered again today and lost 221 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Support was broken today on the major indices that we've been discussing.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but there isn't much more positive that I can say.  Oversold, staying there and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I did consider getting some SPY June calls today since we are so blown out to the downside.  But that would not be a wise move either, as we've probably got a long way to go down if the head and shoulders tops are really in place.  So I am going to wait and see if I get a chance in the next few days to get the SPY June puts.  If not, I'll look for another idea.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  It looks like the gold shares are trying to build a bottom here.  However if the US dollar continues to rise it would not help the gold shares.  I'm waiting to get some GDX longer term calls and I'll continue to wait.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are still some potential RSI positive divergences on the major stock averages but we would have to see a move higher tomorrow for those to have a chance.  But the breakdown in support doesn't bode well for the divergences to pan out.  Although if the RSI theory does work, now would be the time to try the SPY June calls.  I just can't bring myself to do it though.  The summation index continues lower and I'm taking my lead from that.  The VIX rose above 18 today but it still has room to move up as well.  I think that I'll just sit out the rest of this week too but of course that could change with the market action tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight with Europe taking the worst of it.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside to start a shortened trading week.  The Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  It looks like I won't be getting a chance to try the SPY June puts unless things turn around tomorrow.  The S&P is right at the support at the 2800 level.  It certainly doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  Buyers are on strike as it appears a slow down in economic activity is in the cards.  At least that is what the bond market is saying as yields have dropped.  It looks like the potential head and shoulders tops on some of the major indices are about to manifest themselves.  The market really needs to hold on tomorrow or it will bet ugly and fast.  GE dropped around 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off about $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  No flight to safety here and gold remains unloved.  I am still looking at the longer term gold share calls though.  But there is no hurry to purchase them despite the oversold technical condition in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market cannot seem to hold on to any gains lately.  Todays price action was particularly negative as we reversed course and then closed on the lows for the day.  The short term technical indicators also rolled over from an already oversold condition.  The levels to watch are 2800 on the S&P 500 and 1500 on RUT.  A decisive break on either one will spell doom for the bulls.  We're in a negative seasonal time frame as well.  So heading lower would not be a surprise.  The index options remain pricey though as there is still a lot of time left in the June option cycle.  I can only hope that things hold up here for a better entry point but I doubt it.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll be keeping a close eye on what transpires in the markets tomorrow.   

A quiet Friday ahead of a long weekend as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Less noise from the trade war today but it will always be in the background it seems.  The VIX remains above the 15 level so it is still a time to be careful.  RUT has managed to hold the 1500 level for now.  My view is that the stock market remain in a precarious situation and caution is warranted.  I'm still looking to purchase some SPY June puts if the opportunity presents itself.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major stock indices.  There are some potential positive RSI divergences for a few of the indexes.  We would have to see a rally sooner rather than later for the divergences to pan out.  It isn't out of the question but I'm remaining with my bearish tilt for now.  I'll recheck the charts over the long weekend and determine what course of action to take from there.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Heading lower as the Dow fell 286 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but came close to breaching the support at 2800 for the S&P.  I do believe this level will break eventually and hope to own some SPY June puts before that occurs.  But the market may not give me the opportunity.  I still think that the Dow is forming a head and shoulders top here.  The 200 day moving average is holding for now but a break there will trigger the pattern.  We'll still hope for a light volume rally back towards the 50 day moving average for the set up.  But the market might not be so generous.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold added almost $10 on the flight to safety.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished barely positive after being higher early on.  Not flowing gold here is a negative as interest in these stocks is almost non existent.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trade war is back in the picture as worries about that have resurfaced.  No real news about that other than rumblings here and there.  But as long as the perception is that nothing will be done, the market will worry.  Just as the positive musings about the tariffs led to rallies, the inference that nothing will get done leads to declines.  It is not the best background to be trading but it is what it is.  The short term technical indicators remain more oversold than overbought.  The fact that we cannot get a sustained rally out of that is concerning for the bulls.  I'm sticking with my scenario of buying some SPY puts on a light volume rally from here.  If we simply drop now that trade is off.  the VIX is once again above the 15 level and that is something to keep an eye on as well.  One day left before a holiday weekend and I doubt we'll see a lot of buying ahead of that.  Europe and Asia were lower as we are seeing liquidation around the globe.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We bounced around today but ended the session lower as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  it tried to turn around but failed for now.  Nothing really new to report today, all technical conditions remain the same.  It is a good week to watch in my opinion and that is what we'll do.  Patience is required for the next set up and we'll simply wait for that.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple more days before a holiday weekend in the US.  Combine that with the extra week in the June option cycle and you have your reasons for sitting things out.  I do believe that we'll get some kind of decent opportunity in the S&P for the June cycle.  I just don't what or when that will be.  I can say that it probably won't be this week.  So we'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was up a bit and Europe mixed in the overnight trading.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 197 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  This should stop the summation index from heading down.  No news to speak of as the market is simply moving on its own volition.  A nice light volume rally to the 2900 level on the S&P would set up nicely for the SPY June puts.  That is what I hoping for at the moment.  Everything that was written here yesterday remains the same as far as the strategy and the technical factors.  Waiting out the week would seem to be the best course of action to take at this time.  it is a holiday weekend on tap as well.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off slightly on the futures and the US dollar was just the opposite.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Oversold here but no interest to take positions by the major players as of yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Seems like we're just hanging around now in the market, waiting for the next move to take shape.  The US/China trade talks seem to have been put on hold.  There will be a meeting of the leaders but that won't happen until the end of June.  That has moved headline risk to the back burner for now.  So it's a wait and see approach for me at the moment.  Earnings have pretty much come and gone.  We're waiting for the next market catalyst and I'm not sure where it will come from.  Patience for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 84 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is moving lower.  We'll take our cues from that.  I'd like to get some SPY June puts if we get some kind of a set up.  But it may be that the market simply heads lower from here.  I looked things over this weekend and that is the strategy that I've determined.  Breadth is starting to weaken here on a consistent basis which is the opposite of what had been happening.  You can blame it on the tariff wars or whatever you'd like.  I'm hoping we'll move sideways here to take out some of the option premium as the prices are really high.  The extra week in the June cycle doesn't help on that front.  Headline risk seems to be taking a back seat here in the near term.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  Ditto for the XAU and GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's a potential head and shoulders top forming on the Dow daily chart.  The NASDAQ had a gap down today on the open.  RUT continues lower.  Most of the short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold.  But we're not seeing the usual bounce up from there and that is why I'm leaning towards the bearish side here.  Negative seasonality is another factor.  I'd like to see things move sideways for a week or so and then attempt to purchase some SPY June puts.  But the market usually doesn't cooperate with my wishes.  Like I said, we may just head down from here.  We'll have to see how the week goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower today as the market dropped in the final hour.  I'm not sure if it was expiration related or what.  The Dow fell 98 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around here but todays breadth didn't help.  The VIX is right around the 16 level which makes the beginning of next week important.  If the VIX can get down below 16 and stay there, the decline has ended in my view.  However if the VIX climbs early next week and the market falls then that changed things.  We'll just have to wait and see.  The seasonally good period for stocks is over, so I'm thinking that sideways will be the most we can hope for now.  Not to mention the market is at the mercy of the next headline out of China or the US.  So it's a trickier than usual trading environment.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher again.  The gold shares did not follow though.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling better.  Done with the medical stuff for now and full attention can be given to the game.  There's an extra week in the June option cycle so there's no rush to do anything until a decent signal comes forth.  Option premiums are high.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  The S&P 500 is hanging around its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range.  Things could pretty much go either way here.  I'll have to check out some other things over the weekend.  RUT remains more oversold than overbought on a short term basis.  It has also been traveling in a sideways zone since February.  If it were to take out the low support at 1500, that would be the signal to buy some index puts.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't know if it will.  But it is something to follow as RUT is generally a leader for the market.  Again, I'll be checking things out over the weekend and we'll go from there.  Asia was generally higher with the exception of Hong Kong, while Europe was down.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow added to its gains today as it rose another 214 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive again.  The summation index is trying to turn around and I'm guessing that it will.  Trade tensions have moved to the back seat and buyers have returned.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm tired and just back from the hospital.  The blog will be short.  The VIX is back below 16 and its 200 day moving average.  That is a plus for the bulls.  But we'll just have to see where it goes from here.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  I'll be taking it easy tonight.  More on the markets tomorrow.

Another day of gains as the Dow rose 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower but is also trying to turn around.  No headline problems today for stocks.  The short term technical indicators have stopped going down but haven't turned around yet.  The VIX is moving lower and that's a plus for the bulls.  Moving averages are holding things for the most part on the major indexes with the exception of RUT.  Only a couple of days left in the May option cycle.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold was little changed, ditto the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm a bit distracted with a hospital visit coming tomorrow morning.  If all goes well the blog will return tomorrow.  We've stabilized for a couple of days after Mondays crushing blow.  The fact that we've held up for now it good but it could all turn on a dime.  The next quote out of the US or China could move things up or down.  I'm hoping we'll take a break from that soon since these countries leaders aren't getting together until the end of June.  Technically we're short term oversold.  The blog is short today as my mind is on my health.  Trading has to take a back seat and that is no way to do it.  The game requires your undivided attention.  If you can't give it that, then the sidelines make perfect sense.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the news this evening.   

Got a snap back today as the Dow rose 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  No real trade news today as the market tries to regain its footing.  Oversold here on a short term basis to be sure.  The question is whether we see just a bounce from here or is this the bottom of a roughly 5% pull back in the S&P 500.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as we are still at the mercy of the next US/China headline.  But if I had to guess, I'd say that the worst is over for now.  Perhaps some sideways consolidation before the next move is what you should be looking for.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  gold gave back some of yesterdays gains and dropped around five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The 200 day moving averages have held things for the most part here with the exception of RUT.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Most of the indices today fell back from their highs for the session.  So there are still people looking to sell.  When we see some strength into the close, that will be a clue that the sellers a diminishing.  The VIX looks like it has put in a top here to me.  A close back below its 200 day moving average would be another positive clue.  Those are things to look for and they haven't happened yet.  A renewed decline from here that takes out the 200 day moving averages for the major indices would be a red flag.  But we're at the risk of the next headline and that's tough thing to try and trade.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded today as the trade war between the US and China heated up.  The most watched index fell 617 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The positive price action and candlesticks from the previous two sessions were negated.  Moving average support has been broken now on many indices.  The S&P 500 is just about at the next support of 2800.  But RUT looks like it wants to head lower and there is still room on the short term technical indicators to move down.  RUT is generally a leader one way or the other.  The market is now hostage to the trade headlines and they are negative at the moment.  If there would be some kind of positive break through, we'd see a nice rally.  But it doesn't look like that is in the cards as the hard-liners have taken over the narrative.  Perhaps we move a bit lower before an oversold bounce but that's a guess as usual.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume.  Gold finally found some buyers and was up $13 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Finally a flight to safety on the trade war news.  Plenty of room on the technical indicators here to go higher.  No trades in mind for me here yet though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted as I have a medical procedure scheduled for Thursday so my mind is not in the right place to trade.  The game really needs your full attention to be successful.  I don't have that now.  4 days left in the May option cycle.  Whatever I had thought about market direction is now confirmed wrong after todays price action.  The market does not look like it will hold up as I had planned and new all time highs are now off the table.  Even though nothing has fundamentally changed in the past week, we cannot ignore the price action.  We're at the mercy of the next headline or quote out of the US or China.  That is a tough way to make a living.  My mind isn't completely in the game here anyway so I'll be on the sidelines until further notice.  Getting oversold on the stock indexes but not there yet.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll see what kind of rhetoric shows up overnight.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 114 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Tariffs came and it was already in the market.  Buying to lows today would have worked.  I just couldn't bring myself to do it.  The US/China drama isn't over though as a deal has yet to be done.  China says it plans on some kind of retaliation, so we'll have to see what transpires over the weekend.  The technical picture looks brighter though as moving averages have held for now.  The daily candlestick charts look promising as well, with potential hammers in place.  Plus the short term indicators are turning back up.  Of course that could all change with one negative headline but it could also lead to a rally with a positive one.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite an interesting week in the markets.  The VIX has now rolled back down and that is a plus for the bulls.  On the longer term charts for the major averages there is a bearish potential double top in place if we don't rally back up and take out the recent highs.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't think that it will but it's something to keep an eye on.  Something else to watch is the weekly chart for RUT.  It hasn't been able to make it back above its 50 week moving average.  RUT is usually a leader, so I would keep an eye on it here.  Of course we're at the mercy of the news this weekend and anything that comes out of the US/China discussions.  It seems that the raising of the Chinese tariffs by the US didn't have the negative effect that most thought it would.  Or perhaps today was just some enormous short covering going into the weekend.  Whatever the case we should know more on Monday morning.  Option expiration week is upon us but I'm not sure that the usual positive bias will take effect.  That's a guess on my part.  It looks like the SPY May call trade was to be done today on the lows, so I wouldn't chase that idea anymore.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what else is out there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another loser on the day as the Dow fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving down.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  Perhaps today was it as the Dow was off around 450 points early on.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The price action today looks like it is setting up for a short term bottom.  That would be my guess as the deadline for the tariffs is tomorrow and I'm pretty sure there will be some kind of last second deal that saves the day.  It is kind of ridiculous but that's the reality that we're in at the moment.  The daily VIX candlesticks chart also point towards some downside movement in that indicator coming up.  So don't be surprised by a huge rally tomorrow.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold bounced a few bucks higher on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  These stocks are simply out of favor now for whatever reasons.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did look at the May SPY calls today but the premiums were higher than usual due to the recent volatility.  So I didn't try that trade although I think that it will be successful on a short term basis.  The market is currently being held hostage by Trump and China.  You always have the choice not to play the game and I think that is appropriate for now.  Option premiums along with risk have been elevated due to the stand off between these two.  There will be some kind of save face announcement before the tariffs take place and the market will breathe a sigh of relief.  That is what I think will happen.  It would be comical if there weren't so much money involved on a trading and market basis.  Technically speaking, we are more oversold than overbought but that doesn't seem to matter when the headlines take over.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what happens tonight and finish the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow came well off of its highs for the session and barely stayed positive.  The most watched index was up 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P were both lower.  We were positive for most of the day but things dropped in the final half hour.  Tariffs tensions loom and Friday will be a key.  I still expect some type of resolution before then but we're running out of time.  The VIX fell back again from higher levels today and that implies a move lower in the near term.  But things can turn on a dime with headline risk and I wouldn't count out any scenario going forward.  It makes for tougher than usual trading.  I'd like to try the SPY May calls with only seven days to go because I do not think either side wants an all out trade war.  Timing is the concern as always for the trade.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Today price action portends lower prices going forward but we'll see.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 2850 for the first line of defense.  That's where the 50 day moving average lies and it's where previous near term tops are.  That would be the logical spot to try some SPY calls if you wanted to do so.  It would be risky though because the short term technical indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  But if you kept the time frame short and got out when you showed some kind of profit, it would make sense.  If we knife through that level, then the market is in more trouble than I think.  Always an interesting game.  Gold has not reacted as you would expect here and is probably weaker than I give it credit for.  I should probably wait until the summer to try anything here again.  Europe up and Asia down overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The Dow got clobbered today as it lost 473 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading down.  Tariff wars are back between the US and China with a Friday deadline.  We were off just about 600 points but made a comeback in the final half hour.  All the major indices were down but at least we didn't close on the lows.  The VIX jumped to almost a reading of 22 as volatility has returned.  I'm not sure exactly how long these conditions will last.  My best guess is that some kind of compromise is going to occur before the Friday deadline.  I do not think that either party wants an all out trade war.  But we'll just have to wait and see what happens.  However a huge rally in the next few days isn't out of the question in my mind.  Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past couple of days.  It's all simply rhetoric and mindless threats at this point.  Not to mention squeezing the low volatility players.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 7/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  It look like trying the GDX calls here would have worked but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on all the major indexes have rolled over.  Some of them still have room to drop.  We're approaching the 50 day moving averages for some.  Whether or not thing hold up there will determine if we're heading down to the 200 days or not.  The VIX is pretty overbought now and I would not be surprised to see a pause in the selling.  But the summation index has headed down with gusto, so care is needed on the long side.  Headline risk is now extreme in either direction and that isn't a good environment for trading.  Whipsaws become the rule and not the exception.  I would tread carefully here and be ready to exit trades after quick profits.  I do not expect an extended move lower here but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.        

A volatile start to the week as the Dow opened 450 points lower and recovered during the session to close with a loss of 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The US/China trade talks are back in the picture as US president Trump said that if there is no deal this week, the trade tariffs will be increased.  That was quite a shock for the markets to handle but it seems as though they did.  Headline risk is back to being front and center for the markets.  So it could be an interesting week.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls again on the assumption that an early sell off would be followed by buying in gold as a flight to safety.  The gold shares didn't sell off early with the market and I canceled the order.  This was an idea that had to happen quickly and it didn't.  I do like the way the S&P came back today but I wasn't looking at the calls here.  With a chance now that the talks could collapse, the risk has now changed overnight.  I will probably remain on the sidelines as originally planned.  GE lost a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold ended flat on the session as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished flat as well on light volume.  If gold can't get moving higher after todays volatility, I don't know what the catalyst will be for higher prices in the precious metal.  I suppose I'll be waiting to see if I can do a summer trade now here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but a little distracted with a doctors appointment tomorrow.  Back to the headline risk environment.  It's great if you're on the right side of the news but a total disaster if you're not.  The technical picture isn't as clear now as some of the major indices have had the indicators roll over while others have not.  Combine that with the whim of the politicans involved and you have a climate of uncertainty.  My best idea here is to wait it out but that could change with more data coming in.  The fact that things came back from the dead today for the market is a positive.  My gut feeling is that some type of agreement will be reached even if it has no teeth.  This way both countries can save face and claim victory.  Hollow as it is, that would be the best result that we can hope for at this point.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with a couple of markets closed for holiday.  We will be keeping an eye out on whatever news comes in overnight.  

The market roared back on a good jobs report as the Dow gained 197 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of 4 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  RUT is breaking out above its near term resistance and that's a plus as well.  Too late for the SPY May calls as yesterdays lows were the proper entry point there.  The VIX is back below 13 and the middle of the week selling for stocks is in the rear view mirror.  We should set new all time highs again for the S&P next week.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold even had some buying as the futures rose around $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I sold all of my positions in the GDX May calls to get them off the books.  It was practically a total loss as the trend line break this week was the kiss of death.  I'll come back to getting long here in the summer perhaps if GDX can build a base at the 18 level.  It certainly didn't help here that NEM had to shut down one of its leading gold producing mines and the stock got clobbered leading GDX lower.  But you simply chalk it up as another loss and move on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a short term shake out this week and now it's back to moving higher for stocks.  It helps that the US market is where everyone around the world wants to be.  There still seems to be plenty of money around to chase stocks higher.  At some point that will change but I don't see it just yet.  We'll need to see some more IPOs head higher for companies that are losing money.  We don't have that kind of froth yet so keep an eye out for it.  I still expect the rally to continue into this months option expiration.  Asia was mixed and Europe positive to close out the week.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle and I don't have any trading ideas as yet.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what I can come up with.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We did get some downside follow through as the Dow lost 122 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trending lower but it isn't dramatic just yet.  The VIX almost made it up to the 16 level but quickly turned around.  I think that the decline is over and that we'll be heading back up to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before option expiration.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Now if we continue lower on the jobs report tomorrow, then that thesis is out the window.  The TRAN was up good today and RUT posted a gain as well.  So I am certainly not all that bearish here and expect higher prices are coming.  GE was up over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was lower again today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX May calls are effectively dead.  I've got open orders in to salvage not having them expire but they probably won't be filled.  So it will be 100% losses tallied there.  Not a lot of money but these trades are doomed.  The weekly up trend line is now broken for the gold shares.  Support doesn't come in until much lower levels.  Perhaps the calls can be tried again in the July to October time frame.  There's some support for gold at 1250 but better support at 1200.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A couple of days of decline for the markets but nothing serious in my view.  We'll see what the employment picture looks like and go from there.  I'm not looking at the SPY May calls as the next trade but it may be too late already.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Another couple of losing trades on the books but you've got to keep on going in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  It fell 163 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The Fed announcement came out and there was a brief rally.  I guess the market didn't like what it heard in the news conference afterward.  The VIX finally got a pop and is now above its 50 day moving average.  There was weakness across the board for stocks.  We'll see if there is any staying power to the decline the rest of the week.  GE turned around as well and lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold dropped too and the futures lost $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX calls trades are dead.  Unless there is a comeback like last week, GDX will be breaking its weekly up trend line from last year.  That is bearish.  Oversold now for GDX but staying that way.  That is a negative as well.  Barring a miracle, it's just another couple of losing trades for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Is today the start of a long awaited decline for stocks or just another blip on the way to new all time highs in the future?  I think that we'll know more when the week is over.  We've got the jobs report and the market reaction to that to sift through on Friday.  No real technical damage was done to the major averages today.  The short term technical indicators have started to roll over.  I'm still in the camp for higher prices going forward but we'll know more by the end of the week.  We are entering the seasonal weak period for stocks but it rarely actually begins on May 1st.  Stay tuned.  Asia was mostly closed overnight and Europe was mixed.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through in the US Thursday. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as it opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index rose 38 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ showing an over 50 point loss.  It was the end of the month though, with position squaring probably taking place.  Poor earnings from GOOG didn't help the bullish case.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected.  All ears will be on the press conference.  After that it's simply a wait for the employment report on Friday.  We're still overbought for the major averages any way you measure things.  GE rose on its earnings and gained 3/8 on very heavy volume.  Off the highs for the session though.  Gold bounced back a couple bucks which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had minor gains on very light volume.  No interest in the gold shares here and that will probably kill my GDX May call options.  They are solid losers for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another new all time closing high for the S&P 500 today.  However the small stocks didn't lead as they have been and that's a warning sign.  Whether or not it really means anything will be discovered as time moves on.  The technically overbought condition has lasted for quite some time and we are overdue for some type of negative price action.  Or at least some sideways price movement in stocks.  But you could have said that a month ago for the S&P and still be waiting.  The grind higher continues and unless there is something unexpected that comes out of left field the grind will go on.  The blog has been a broken record lately but the conditions just haven't changed.  No overhead resistance and plenty of money chasing stocks around the world.  We'll enjoy it while it lasts.  Asia was lower overnight and some markets there will be closed on holiday for the rest of the week.  Europe was mixed.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The Dow sold off in the final hour but did manage a gain of 11 points on the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was light.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We've got the Fed this week along with earnings and the end of the month tomorrow.  Plus the jobs report on Friday.  So there will be plenty of opportunities for the markets to move.  New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  Where do we go from here?  There's still no overhead resistance and the tend is up.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Earnings here due before the bell tomorrow.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was average.  I'll need to see GDX turn around here again or my GDX call trade will be dead.  We managed to hang on to the weekly up trend line at the close on Friday.  But we'll have to see about this week as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and there is nothing on the horizon that would suggest otherwise.  We are moving into a different seasonal time frame for stocks that is not as positive as the one that we're exiting.  That doesn't mean things have to go down right away but it does mean that the path upward may not be as easy.  Money has been flowing into stocks worldwide though and that's a plus.  However things do remain overbought for equities and have been for quite some time.  This will not last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.   

A positive day to end the week as the Dow gained 81 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at record highs as we thought they might.  There is no overhead resistance which is a plus but the volume wasn't all that spectacular.  Not to mention the persistent overbought technical condition which at some point will turn around.  But for now we'll enjoy the grind higher.  GDP was much better than expected which helped move things along.  Earnings were mixed but did not provide a reason to wholesale sell.  RUT looks like it is about to push through its overhead resistance and that would be bullish.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold found some buyers today despite the better than expected GDP number.  The precious metal futures added around $10, while the US dollar dropped a bit.  The XAU rose two points and GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Half my GDX calls are showing a small profit while the other half have a decent loss.  Still an overall loser for now.  GDX did hold up where it had to on the weekly chart though and that is a plus.  The up trend line from last year is still intact.  A positive week next week would further strengthen the bullish case here and that's what I'm looking for.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to move sideways below its 50 day moving average.  As long as that condition persists, higher prices are in the cards.  If we can get some of the other major stock indices besides the S&P and the NASDAQ to break out, we could see a nice rally into the May expiration.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there.  Interesting move higher for gold today despite the better than expected GDP report.  That certainly did not fit my expectations of the reaction to that report.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of it but we all know that the market will go where it wants.  I'm looking for GDX to hopefully bet back to the 22 level next week and then we'll see what things look like from there.  This seems to be a trade that cannot be overstayed since the entry was so poor.  Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 135 points today on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower again but it is basically moving sideways.  The overall market fared much better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  The short term technical indicators on the Dow did roll over today and the Bollinger bands are starting to move closer.  The TRAN had a negative day as well so perhaps my thesis of higher prices here is wrong.  RUT was lower as well.  But the other small stock indexes continue to hold up and as long as that is the case I'm sticking with a bullish bias.  Tomorrow could be interesting with the first look at GDP for the year.  GE lost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold was pretty much flat on the day.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost 1/8 on light volume.  My GDX May calls continue in the red.  GDX is about to break its weekly up trend line from last year if it doesn't rally tomorrow.  That would most likely be the last nail in the coffin for my GDX call trade.  We are holding in here at the last area of support for now.  But it doesn't feel like it will hold up at this point if we see a strong GDP number tomorrow and the US dollar rallies.  Of course I have no idea what the number will be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earnings still coming in better than expected for most.  Of course when you ratchet down the expectations it makes things look a lot better when they do come out.  But that's the way the game is played and it isn't really a surprise.  We'll see how we close out the trading week tomorrow.  We've got the end of the month coming up next week as well.  We will then be moving into a less favorable time period for stocks based on past history.  There is still the possibility that we've built a massive double top on some of the major stock indices.  I don't think that is the case but what do I know?  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We didn't get any follow through to yesterdays nice gains as the Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is moving sideways again.  We opened lower and stayed there for much of the session.  The overbought technical conditions remain and I'm still looking for new all time closing highs in the coming days for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  Maybe the Dow too as we are attacking overhead resistance for the third time.  Earnings are still rolling out and we'll get the first look at the 1st quarter GDP on Friday.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume.  So GDX has held here for now where it had to.  Whether or not it holds up here is still in doubt.  My GDX May calls are still in the red as the entry on the trade wasn't any good.  Yesterday or today were the prime entry points.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT was up today along with the TRAN and that's positive.  I don't see any worry here with the exception of the overbought condition that has persisted for weeks now.  Volume is beginning to pick up now as we move higher and that's a plus.  There's a lot of time left on the May option cycle so I don't anticipate any SPY trades until next week at the earliest.  I'll concentrate on the GDX calls for now.  This trade may work out if the support here holds.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower with the exception of the DAX.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Earnings drove things higher today as the Dow gained 145 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We're approaching new all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  Still short term overbought for the major indices but that hasn't mattered.  RUT had a nice bounce up today as well.  The VIX remains low around the 12 level.  We are still going to go higher in my view.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX MAY calls are in the red.  I do think that tomorrow will tell the story for this trade.  If GDX does not move up from here, the trade is dead.  The daily candlestick chart has a possible star pattern if GDX can move up tomorrow.  That would be a positive sign and make today as the best buy date for that trade.  If we simply continue to move lower, that would be a strong negative.  GDX is very oversold and we're at the point of multiple support lines.  It's now or never for this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The recent sideways price movement for stocks appears to be breaking out to the upside.  That's a plus.  If we continue higher from here there is no overhead resistance.  The rally could really gain some steam if we can get the McClellan oscillator back to the plus side.  Hasn't happened yet but the potential is there.  We are getting near the end of the positive seasonality for stocks and that should be taken into consideration as well.  Perhaps we'll get an earnings blow off top before some actual sustained selling.  But that's just a random thought of mine, not a prediction.  For now we'll look for new all time highs and see where it goes from there.  I'll be keeping a close eye on GDX tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another meandering session as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now tracking lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.  The S&P also had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened with a gap lower and finished the day higher.  RUT continues lower and remains a drag on the overall bullish scenario.  I guess we'll just have to remain patient for a catalyst to get things moving again one way or the other.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar didn't do much today.  However the gold shares continue to tumble.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed another 1/3.  Volume remains slightly above average to the downside.  Gold hasn't moved yet the gold shares are losing value and that's bearish.  I did however purchase some GDX May calls at a lower strike price today.  We are at the last line in the sand for GDX at the 21 level.  Major support here from multiple sources, so if it doesn't hold up now we're heading much lower.  Todays calls along with the ones I got last week are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most major stock averages remain overbought with the exception of RUT.  I'm still in the camp of new all time highs for the S&P in the coming days or weeks despite the overbought conditions.  The VIX remains very low and I don't see a big drop in the market with that fact.  But I could be wrong.  There's always a chance that something comes out of nowhere.  earnings are the story now and there haven't yet been any real big surprises either way.  I've taken my chance here with the gold shares and there's 4 weeks in the May option cycle.  An end to the decline this week is what I'm looking for.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and take it from there.

We finished the trading week with a gain of 110 points for the Dow on about average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the small stocks barely moving.  We're still short term overbought.  The market has basically been moving sideways for the past couple of weeks.  The VIX remains low.  I think the market is trying to figure out if it's going to roll over or burst out to new all time highs for the S&P.  I'm in the latter camp as the seasonality favors more gains.  Not to mention that we've had plenty of chances to drop in the past couple of weeks but it just hasn't happened.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar had a pretty good gain on the day.  The XAU fell another point, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume remains a bit above average to the downside.  My GDX May calls are losers and that was figured out soon after I bought them.  Oversold here still and no moving up and that's bearish.  I do still like this idea though and will move to a lower strike price and try again next week.  That is the game plan at the moment.  We did break the 21.5 support today for GDX.  However there is major support at the 21 level from the 50 and 200 day moving averages combined with the up trend lines from the middle of last year on a closing and intra-day basis.  Now if we simply bust through 21, all bets are off and the decline will be much lower.  I'm willing to take another shot at the calls at 21.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted with outside of the market events taking up space in my mind.  Nothing serious but still some distractions.  So I'm in another losing trade but there isn't much money in it so it isn't that painful.  But it's looking like a loss anyway.  Perhaps the gold shares are not where I should be looking but the technicals do say to take a look at the long side here.  We'll have to see how things go next week.  The technical indicators have rolled over for RUT and that could be a problem for the overall market because RUT is usually a leader.  But things could turn around there too.  The market always goes where it wants to.  There's an extra day off this weekend and I think I'll take a break from things for a couple of days and then decide what to do next week.  Earnings really haven't moved things yet but that could change.  The noise out of Washington today was a non market event again.  Asia was lower and Europe was higher overnight.  It's Thursday afternoon and time to take a break.

Another day of just milling around as the Dow lost 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  A lackluster expiration week so far and tomorrow should be no exception.  Traders will probably be leaving early for a long holiday weekend.  RUT was lower today and could potentially have a double top in place.  All the major stock indices remain short term overbought.  I did expect some type of rally this week but all we've gotten is a light volume sideways affair.  Perhaps everyone is already on vacation.  GE was off a couple cents on light volume.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar finished little changed as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  My GDX May calls are in the red as my entry time wasn't good.  Today GDX hit 21.5 and that is the line in the sand for the sideways consolidation.  Today would have been a better day to purchase the calls.  We are now short term oversold on GDX.  If we do break 21.5, the next support is at 21.  I may have to sell this trade and take the loss now because if we go down to 21 the trade will not make it back.  It looks like I'm early here and the 21 level would be the next logical spot to take a chance on the calls.  However if the sideways consolidation holds up, then the trade has a chance to work.  It is all probabilities and timing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get some noise out of Washington tomorrow, not sure how or if it will affect stocks.  I'm now of the opinion that it's been a pretty muted option expiration week with no fireworks this time around.  Let's just get through tomorrow and then be back at it next week.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of bouncing around for the major stock averages as the Dow finished with a gain of 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is starting to track sideways.  We had a gap up at the open, then spent the rest of the day selling off before a pop up in the final half hour.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action as we are not seeing the usual positive expiration week bias.  Perhaps the short trading week has something to do with that.  However we are still short term overbought and remain in that technical condition.  With only two days left in the April option cycle, there won't be any SPY trades for me here.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost $13 and closed below the important level of $1280.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was shy of average.  I did place an order for the GDX May calls overnight.  I canceled it this morning but then replaced it and it got filled.  I think that may have been a mistake because I could be early on this trade.  We did get back below 22 on GDX but we may have to get down to 21.5 before support kicks in.  Tomorrow may tell the story here because if we do continue lower my fears will be realized.  However if we stay in the channel that is in place at the moment, GDX should rise tomorrow.  But the break below $1280 on gold could be telling although silver did not follow lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm in the next trade and there's plenty of time for it to work if the timing is correct.  That's a big if as usual.  The stock indices continue to trend sideways for the past few trading sessions.  My thesis of new all time highs for the S&P 500 has been put on hold for now.  The VIX continues lower and the risk of a huge sell off here is minimal in my view.  It appears that this week is a yawner and things should pick up after the holiday weekend.  Of course that could all change tomorrow but the trading appears muted at best here.  Europe and Asia markets were both higher overnight as money continues to flow in to stocks around the globe.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market tried to sell off today but could not as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is grinding higher.  I still think that we're going higher here and may be tempted to try a very short term SPY April call trade if we get some weakness tomorrow.  Overbought, staying that way and we've seen this all before.  A short, holiday driven options expiration week.  I think much of the action will take place in the next two days and then the traders will hit the road on Thursday.  It's the beginning of earnings season and the numbers have been reduced so much that whatever is reported will probably look good.  We'll see.  GE lost a couple cents on average volume.  Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX climbed off of their lows back to about break even for the day.  Volume was light.  Not completely oversold here yet but I'm thinking of placing the order for the May GDX calls anyway.  Mentally I'm a bit distracted as I have medical issues to deal with again.  Nothing serious like the last time but a distraction none the less.  The VIX is oversold but shows no signs of wanting to move higher.  The small stocks have been overbought since the beginning of April but I don't see any let up there either.  News due out of Washington on Thursday but I'm not sure if it will affect stocks.  There's a case to made to sitting on the sidelines until next week as well.  I'll figure out what I want to do tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

To the upside for the Dow as it gained 269 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving forward.  The bank earnings were acceptable and today is the prelude for option expiration week.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market as DIS jumped 10%.  Volume picked up today from what its been and new all time highs for the S&P 500 could come as early as next week in my humble opinion.  Of course the SPY April calls would make money as we thought they would.  Perhaps I should have simply paid up for them yesterday.  At least the ideas are heading in the right direction.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm looking at the GDX May calls now and hoping GDX trades back below 22 again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overbought, staying there and we've seen this picture before.  I'm looking for some upside follow through on Monday and then we'll see what happens from there.  Short trading week ahead as Friday is a holiday.  I'm guessing most things for the week will be wrapped up by the close on Wednesday.  There's nothing that doesn't say we can simply plod higher through expiration week.  It now looks like my next trade will be in the gold shares.  But I'll have to look thing over this weekend to be sure.  Another trade missed this week but that seems to be the story so far this year.  Perhaps last years losses are still weighing on the decision making.  However the markets will keep moving and they certainly don't care.  Europe and Asia were higher as money around the world is finding a home in stocks.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is tracking sideways.  I did have an order in for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I decided not to chase it.  If we have some weakness tomorrow morning I may give it another try.  Otherwise I'll just have to wait for a better set up.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Running out of time in the April option cycle.  I guess we'll take a look at the bank earnings and go from there.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold got drubbed and the futures fell almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed another point, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume picked up to the downside and that is bearish for the gold shares.  Perhaps the GDX May calls will be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would sure like to try the SPY calls here because like I've said before, we've seen this picture time and time again.  Basically sideways for the S&P 500 the past three days as the market decides which way to go.  With option expiration week almost upon us, we know the usual answer will be higher for prices in the near term.  I perhaps should have chased things today but tomorrows open will tell the story.  If it's higher I'll just have to sit things out.  If it's lower, then I may have a chance at a trade.  So we'll see.  Nothing to do but wait for now.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  Brexit has now been postponed until Halloween.  That whole situation is really a joke but at least it hasn't really affected the day to day market action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow managed a gain of 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now in a sideways trend.  The advance/declines reversed themselves from yesterday.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  I wanted to see weakness going into the close tomorrow but today negated that.  I am still considering the SPY April calls though because we've seen the same picture before over and over again approaching option expiration.  The positive bias takes over and the market simply keeps going up despite the overbought technical conditions.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow again and the small stocks are leading the way.  I'll be looking for some weakness tomorrow to purchase the SPY calls.  GE was off a few cents on what now passes for average volume.  Gold was up a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost about 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume seems to be the tone of the market these days.  It has the potential to be dangerous in both directions.  Six days to go in the April option cycle as next week Friday is a holiday.  Bank earnings due this Friday and I'd like to be positioned ahead of that.  I'll be the first to admit that it's risky to try something here but I probably will on market weakness for the SPY calls.  Like I already said, we've seen this picture some many times before that it's about time to cash in on it.  So tomorrow has the potential to be a trading day.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe slightly higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Got the downside we were looking for today as the Dow dropped 190 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways for now.  We were overbought with a light volume rally so the move lower is not unexpected.  We have now rolled over the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices but we're still overbought.  The small stocks didn't do as bad except for RUT.  The question is now where do we try and purchase the SPY April calls before expiration?  I did place an open order for the SPY April puts last night but it wasn't filled.  We opened with a gap down on the SPY, making the optimum buy time for the puts at the close yesterday.  I obviously didn't see that.  GE dropped 1/4 on good volume.  Some downside follow through there.  Gold added $6 on the futures.  The US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Waiting patiently to get the GDX calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose now my next trading attempt will be the SPY April calls before next weeks expiration.  Next week will be a day short with a holiday on Friday.  Bank earnings will be due on Friday so if I try this idea the purchase will have to be in the next two sessions.  If we continue lower tomorrow and the next day, that would be the ideal situation.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates with what we want.  Right now my thinking is to let tomorrow pass and try the calls at some point on Thursday.  But I could also scuttle this trade as well depending on what happens between now and then.  Volume has been really light lately and that isn't a bullish development.  There's also a potential large double top on the SPY weekly chart.  However I'm more inclined to think that we are going to hit new all time highs soon and continue upwards to form a potential bearish huge megaphone pattern.  Just a guess as always.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another mixed bag to start the week as the Dow fell 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showing gains.  All the markets opened lower and then continued to find buyers throughout the session as has been the case for quite a while now.  We're still short term overbought and staying there.  I think for a short term trade that strength tomorrow can be sold and I will be looking at the SPY April puts.  The idea will be to be out by the end of the week if I do make a purchase.  It's a strictly short term idea, as the trend is up and perhaps waiting for a slight pullback to get long into expiration is the better play.  We'll see.  GE fell 1/2 on very heavy volume.  There was an analyst downgrade of GE early in the morning.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added a point, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  We're in a good seasonal zone for gold at the moment.  I'm still hoping and waiting for a dip back below 22 on GDX but the short term technical indicators have already turned back up here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earnings season will be back in session starting on Friday with the potential to drive things either way.  We'll get some inflation data and the Fed minutes this week.  However the trend is up until proven otherwise.  There just doesn't seem to be any sellers out there or a catalyst to drive things lower.  Why try the SPY puts then?  There is something to be said about complacency.  The VIX is oversold and continues that way.  The general tone in the media these days is that the market can only go higher.  Even minor sell offs are quickly bought.  At some point, that won't happen.  My thinking is that will happen this week.  If we do rally tomorrow, I'm going to try the SPY puts unless there is some dramatic news out overnight.  That's the game plan for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight.  Brexit is still in the headlines but another extension of the deadline appears to be on tap again.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The jobs report was a bit better than expected but you get the feeling here that the market will rally no matter what.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and I did not get any SPY puts today.  I am thinking about it for sometime next week but it would certainly be bucking the trend.  Long rallies are highlighted by an extended short term overbought market condition.  That is what we're seeing now.  I'm not sure what will derail things as this point.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beat goes on.  The VIX continues lower as volatility has taken a holiday.  There's no overhead resistance for the S&P 500 until we get to the old all time highs.  At the rate we are going we should set a new all time high before the April option expiration on the 18th.  The only caveat that I see is the low volume heading up here.  But we could get a burst of buying through the old highs on good volume and that would take care of that.  Just a guess on my part as the market will go and do what it wants.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and see if trying the SPY puts is even a viable idea.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls if we get back below the 22 level.  Probably out to the May options there if there's a trade.  I'm not sure that there's anything to derail the market here unless something comes out of left field from the US/China talks.  But these talks have been going on for what seems like forever at this point.  Asia was mixed with some markets closed.  Europe was up.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow rose 166 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The broader market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a loss on the session.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted but we'll see where we go tomorrow after the jobs report.  I could make a case here for trying the SPY April puts but I did not purchase any.  If I did it would strictly have to be short term because I'm a believer in higher prices going forward into the option expiration on the 18th.  We've seen this picture before.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as it opened lower and closed higher along with the gold shares.  The US dollar was lower today.  The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was average.  I did place an open order for the GDX April calls overnight.  I was looking things over last night and decided that the gold shares could indeed rise from here.  There was no follow through on the trend line break.  Unfortunately my order wasn't filled as the price of the option have more than doubled in a day.  Just another missed opportunity.  However if we get back below 22 again, I'll head out to the GDX May calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the major averages.  I am thinking about fading any strength possibly tomorrow for a short term SPY put trade.  But we know that overbought markets can continue to stay that way.  I can make a technical case for the idea but I'm not sure if it's prudent to do so.  I guess I'll keep an eye on the reaction to the employment report and decide from there.  I'm certainly not pleased on missing the gold share call trade but what can you do?  Perhaps If had been paying better attention I would have seen it before last night.  All you can do is keep on going.  As they say, missed money is better than losing money.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see if we get any fireworks out of the jobs report and finish out the week tomorrow.

We bounced around today but the Dow did finish with a gain of 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We were higher from the start but then about halfway through the session sellers emerged to take us into negative territory.  Buyers returned and we finished positive on the day.  The S&P 500 is still short term overbought.  Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now.  No trades in mind at the moment but I'm still leaning bullish and am hoping for some type of pullback.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle to get something done.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume isn't what it used to be here.  Gold was a bit lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on very light volume again.  There's all of a sudden no interest in the gold shares and I can't see how that's positive.  My guess is things will get moving here on the employment report be it weak or strong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK. but have a slight back ache.  It isn't affecting my concentration at the moment.  I always think that the day before the jobs report will be running in place.  That only happens about half the time.  During up trends the market can stay overbought for quite some time.  That is what I believe we are experiencing now.  There is a possible negative divergence on the S&P 500 daily RSI indicator but a solid up day will negate that.  There is no overhead resistance for the S&P until we reach the former all time highs.  That's a positive factor that can't be ignored.  So I'll be patient here for now.  I do still like the gold shares but the break of the up trend line is a concern and a reason to be cautious on the long side right now.  Short term oversold though.  Never easy in the game.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money continues its worldwide flow into stocks.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was pretty much a day of running in place although eh Dow did lose 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow as the NASDAQ gained almost 20 points.  As long as the small stocks show leadership we are going higher.  The TRAN and RUT were slightly lower today but it's probably just a breather.  Not a lot of economic news today just some more rumblings of Brexit.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but it can stay that way for a while in up trends.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold added a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on extremely light volume.  Short term oversold now for the gold shares but I'm in no rush just yet to step in to purchase the GDX calls.  If we just go sideways for the rest of the week I may consider it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still looking for higher prices as we continue on with the week.  There's nothing right now that would change that view.  Waiting on the jobs report Friday.  Volume isn't what it was but we're still trending higher.  As long as we continue to have highs above highs and lows above lows, you can tell what the trend is.  Staying patient for now and hoping for a chance to try the SPY April calls before expiration.  Although I will concede that the easy chance for that has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher but NIKK was flat.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

And away we go as the Dow climbed 329 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  Stocks were higher around the world as money flows continue into equities.  Better news out of China was the catalyst as the US data was not inspiring.  We are only going higher from here in my opinion but it looks like it's too late to participate.  Any declines can be bought.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar ended the session little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  The up trend line in GDX that had been in effect since November was violated to the downside today.  I did not buy the calls when we got to the line like I said I should have done previously.  There's now a potential double top in place for GDX but that hasn't been confirmed yet.  I can make the case for support at another up trend line at 20.5, which coincides with the 200 day moving average.  However that's a long way from where we are now and would take quite some time to develop.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Breaking out to new highs on the year for the S&P 500.  The next overhead resistance would be the all time highs at around 2950 which is still quite a way to go.  At this rate we are going to get there.  Barring some negative unforeseen headline coming out of nowhere, we're going up.  With just a little under three weeks to go in the April option cycle, I hope to get another chance to participate.  Missing trades is as painful as losing trades but the game simply keeps moving along.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up ahead of the employment report on Friday.  Foreign stocks were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.