It was a one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as it opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index rose 38 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ showing an over 50 point loss.  It was the end of the month though, with position squaring probably taking place.  Poor earnings from GOOG didn't help the bullish case.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected.  All ears will be on the press conference.  After that it's simply a wait for the employment report on Friday.  We're still overbought for the major averages any way you measure things.  GE rose on its earnings and gained 3/8 on very heavy volume.  Off the highs for the session though.  Gold bounced back a couple bucks which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had minor gains on very light volume.  No interest in the gold shares here and that will probably kill my GDX May call options.  They are solid losers for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another new all time closing high for the S&P 500 today.  However the small stocks didn't lead as they have been and that's a warning sign.  Whether or not it really means anything will be discovered as time moves on.  The technically overbought condition has lasted for quite some time and we are overdue for some type of negative price action.  Or at least some sideways price movement in stocks.  But you could have said that a month ago for the S&P and still be waiting.  The grind higher continues and unless there is something unexpected that comes out of left field the grind will go on.  The blog has been a broken record lately but the conditions just haven't changed.  No overhead resistance and plenty of money chasing stocks around the world.  We'll enjoy it while it lasts.  Asia was lower overnight and some markets there will be closed on holiday for the rest of the week.  Europe was mixed.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The Dow sold off in the final hour but did manage a gain of 11 points on the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was light.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We've got the Fed this week along with earnings and the end of the month tomorrow.  Plus the jobs report on Friday.  So there will be plenty of opportunities for the markets to move.  New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  Where do we go from here?  There's still no overhead resistance and the tend is up.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Earnings here due before the bell tomorrow.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was average.  I'll need to see GDX turn around here again or my GDX call trade will be dead.  We managed to hang on to the weekly up trend line at the close on Friday.  But we'll have to see about this week as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and there is nothing on the horizon that would suggest otherwise.  We are moving into a different seasonal time frame for stocks that is not as positive as the one that we're exiting.  That doesn't mean things have to go down right away but it does mean that the path upward may not be as easy.  Money has been flowing into stocks worldwide though and that's a plus.  However things do remain overbought for equities and have been for quite some time.  This will not last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.   

A positive day to end the week as the Dow gained 81 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at record highs as we thought they might.  There is no overhead resistance which is a plus but the volume wasn't all that spectacular.  Not to mention the persistent overbought technical condition which at some point will turn around.  But for now we'll enjoy the grind higher.  GDP was much better than expected which helped move things along.  Earnings were mixed but did not provide a reason to wholesale sell.  RUT looks like it is about to push through its overhead resistance and that would be bullish.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold found some buyers today despite the better than expected GDP number.  The precious metal futures added around $10, while the US dollar dropped a bit.  The XAU rose two points and GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Half my GDX calls are showing a small profit while the other half have a decent loss.  Still an overall loser for now.  GDX did hold up where it had to on the weekly chart though and that is a plus.  The up trend line from last year is still intact.  A positive week next week would further strengthen the bullish case here and that's what I'm looking for.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to move sideways below its 50 day moving average.  As long as that condition persists, higher prices are in the cards.  If we can get some of the other major stock indices besides the S&P and the NASDAQ to break out, we could see a nice rally into the May expiration.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there.  Interesting move higher for gold today despite the better than expected GDP report.  That certainly did not fit my expectations of the reaction to that report.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of it but we all know that the market will go where it wants.  I'm looking for GDX to hopefully bet back to the 22 level next week and then we'll see what things look like from there.  This seems to be a trade that cannot be overstayed since the entry was so poor.  Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 135 points today on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower again but it is basically moving sideways.  The overall market fared much better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  The short term technical indicators on the Dow did roll over today and the Bollinger bands are starting to move closer.  The TRAN had a negative day as well so perhaps my thesis of higher prices here is wrong.  RUT was lower as well.  But the other small stock indexes continue to hold up and as long as that is the case I'm sticking with a bullish bias.  Tomorrow could be interesting with the first look at GDP for the year.  GE lost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold was pretty much flat on the day.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost 1/8 on light volume.  My GDX May calls continue in the red.  GDX is about to break its weekly up trend line from last year if it doesn't rally tomorrow.  That would most likely be the last nail in the coffin for my GDX call trade.  We are holding in here at the last area of support for now.  But it doesn't feel like it will hold up at this point if we see a strong GDP number tomorrow and the US dollar rallies.  Of course I have no idea what the number will be.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earnings still coming in better than expected for most.  Of course when you ratchet down the expectations it makes things look a lot better when they do come out.  But that's the way the game is played and it isn't really a surprise.  We'll see how we close out the trading week tomorrow.  We've got the end of the month coming up next week as well.  We will then be moving into a less favorable time period for stocks based on past history.  There is still the possibility that we've built a massive double top on some of the major stock indices.  I don't think that is the case but what do I know?  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We didn't get any follow through to yesterdays nice gains as the Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is moving sideways again.  We opened lower and stayed there for much of the session.  The overbought technical conditions remain and I'm still looking for new all time closing highs in the coming days for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  Maybe the Dow too as we are attacking overhead resistance for the third time.  Earnings are still rolling out and we'll get the first look at the 1st quarter GDP on Friday.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume.  So GDX has held here for now where it had to.  Whether or not it holds up here is still in doubt.  My GDX May calls are still in the red as the entry on the trade wasn't any good.  Yesterday or today were the prime entry points.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT was up today along with the TRAN and that's positive.  I don't see any worry here with the exception of the overbought condition that has persisted for weeks now.  Volume is beginning to pick up now as we move higher and that's a plus.  There's a lot of time left on the May option cycle so I don't anticipate any SPY trades until next week at the earliest.  I'll concentrate on the GDX calls for now.  This trade may work out if the support here holds.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower with the exception of the DAX.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Earnings drove things higher today as the Dow gained 145 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We're approaching new all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  Still short term overbought for the major indices but that hasn't mattered.  RUT had a nice bounce up today as well.  The VIX remains low around the 12 level.  We are still going to go higher in my view.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX MAY calls are in the red.  I do think that tomorrow will tell the story for this trade.  If GDX does not move up from here, the trade is dead.  The daily candlestick chart has a possible star pattern if GDX can move up tomorrow.  That would be a positive sign and make today as the best buy date for that trade.  If we simply continue to move lower, that would be a strong negative.  GDX is very oversold and we're at the point of multiple support lines.  It's now or never for this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The recent sideways price movement for stocks appears to be breaking out to the upside.  That's a plus.  If we continue higher from here there is no overhead resistance.  The rally could really gain some steam if we can get the McClellan oscillator back to the plus side.  Hasn't happened yet but the potential is there.  We are getting near the end of the positive seasonality for stocks and that should be taken into consideration as well.  Perhaps we'll get an earnings blow off top before some actual sustained selling.  But that's just a random thought of mine, not a prediction.  For now we'll look for new all time highs and see where it goes from there.  I'll be keeping a close eye on GDX tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another meandering session as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now tracking lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.  The S&P also had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened with a gap lower and finished the day higher.  RUT continues lower and remains a drag on the overall bullish scenario.  I guess we'll just have to remain patient for a catalyst to get things moving again one way or the other.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar didn't do much today.  However the gold shares continue to tumble.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed another 1/3.  Volume remains slightly above average to the downside.  Gold hasn't moved yet the gold shares are losing value and that's bearish.  I did however purchase some GDX May calls at a lower strike price today.  We are at the last line in the sand for GDX at the 21 level.  Major support here from multiple sources, so if it doesn't hold up now we're heading much lower.  Todays calls along with the ones I got last week are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most major stock averages remain overbought with the exception of RUT.  I'm still in the camp of new all time highs for the S&P in the coming days or weeks despite the overbought conditions.  The VIX remains very low and I don't see a big drop in the market with that fact.  But I could be wrong.  There's always a chance that something comes out of nowhere.  earnings are the story now and there haven't yet been any real big surprises either way.  I've taken my chance here with the gold shares and there's 4 weeks in the May option cycle.  An end to the decline this week is what I'm looking for.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and take it from there.

We finished the trading week with a gain of 110 points for the Dow on about average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the small stocks barely moving.  We're still short term overbought.  The market has basically been moving sideways for the past couple of weeks.  The VIX remains low.  I think the market is trying to figure out if it's going to roll over or burst out to new all time highs for the S&P.  I'm in the latter camp as the seasonality favors more gains.  Not to mention that we've had plenty of chances to drop in the past couple of weeks but it just hasn't happened.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar had a pretty good gain on the day.  The XAU fell another point, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume remains a bit above average to the downside.  My GDX May calls are losers and that was figured out soon after I bought them.  Oversold here still and no moving up and that's bearish.  I do still like this idea though and will move to a lower strike price and try again next week.  That is the game plan at the moment.  We did break the 21.5 support today for GDX.  However there is major support at the 21 level from the 50 and 200 day moving averages combined with the up trend lines from the middle of last year on a closing and intra-day basis.  Now if we simply bust through 21, all bets are off and the decline will be much lower.  I'm willing to take another shot at the calls at 21.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted with outside of the market events taking up space in my mind.  Nothing serious but still some distractions.  So I'm in another losing trade but there isn't much money in it so it isn't that painful.  But it's looking like a loss anyway.  Perhaps the gold shares are not where I should be looking but the technicals do say to take a look at the long side here.  We'll have to see how things go next week.  The technical indicators have rolled over for RUT and that could be a problem for the overall market because RUT is usually a leader.  But things could turn around there too.  The market always goes where it wants to.  There's an extra day off this weekend and I think I'll take a break from things for a couple of days and then decide what to do next week.  Earnings really haven't moved things yet but that could change.  The noise out of Washington today was a non market event again.  Asia was lower and Europe was higher overnight.  It's Thursday afternoon and time to take a break.

Another day of just milling around as the Dow lost 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  A lackluster expiration week so far and tomorrow should be no exception.  Traders will probably be leaving early for a long holiday weekend.  RUT was lower today and could potentially have a double top in place.  All the major stock indices remain short term overbought.  I did expect some type of rally this week but all we've gotten is a light volume sideways affair.  Perhaps everyone is already on vacation.  GE was off a couple cents on light volume.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar finished little changed as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  My GDX May calls are in the red as my entry time wasn't good.  Today GDX hit 21.5 and that is the line in the sand for the sideways consolidation.  Today would have been a better day to purchase the calls.  We are now short term oversold on GDX.  If we do break 21.5, the next support is at 21.  I may have to sell this trade and take the loss now because if we go down to 21 the trade will not make it back.  It looks like I'm early here and the 21 level would be the next logical spot to take a chance on the calls.  However if the sideways consolidation holds up, then the trade has a chance to work.  It is all probabilities and timing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get some noise out of Washington tomorrow, not sure how or if it will affect stocks.  I'm now of the opinion that it's been a pretty muted option expiration week with no fireworks this time around.  Let's just get through tomorrow and then be back at it next week.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of bouncing around for the major stock averages as the Dow finished with a gain of 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is starting to track sideways.  We had a gap up at the open, then spent the rest of the day selling off before a pop up in the final half hour.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action as we are not seeing the usual positive expiration week bias.  Perhaps the short trading week has something to do with that.  However we are still short term overbought and remain in that technical condition.  With only two days left in the April option cycle, there won't be any SPY trades for me here.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost $13 and closed below the important level of $1280.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was shy of average.  I did place an order for the GDX May calls overnight.  I canceled it this morning but then replaced it and it got filled.  I think that may have been a mistake because I could be early on this trade.  We did get back below 22 on GDX but we may have to get down to 21.5 before support kicks in.  Tomorrow may tell the story here because if we do continue lower my fears will be realized.  However if we stay in the channel that is in place at the moment, GDX should rise tomorrow.  But the break below $1280 on gold could be telling although silver did not follow lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm in the next trade and there's plenty of time for it to work if the timing is correct.  That's a big if as usual.  The stock indices continue to trend sideways for the past few trading sessions.  My thesis of new all time highs for the S&P 500 has been put on hold for now.  The VIX continues lower and the risk of a huge sell off here is minimal in my view.  It appears that this week is a yawner and things should pick up after the holiday weekend.  Of course that could all change tomorrow but the trading appears muted at best here.  Europe and Asia markets were both higher overnight as money continues to flow in to stocks around the globe.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market tried to sell off today but could not as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is grinding higher.  I still think that we're going higher here and may be tempted to try a very short term SPY April call trade if we get some weakness tomorrow.  Overbought, staying that way and we've seen this all before.  A short, holiday driven options expiration week.  I think much of the action will take place in the next two days and then the traders will hit the road on Thursday.  It's the beginning of earnings season and the numbers have been reduced so much that whatever is reported will probably look good.  We'll see.  GE lost a couple cents on average volume.  Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX climbed off of their lows back to about break even for the day.  Volume was light.  Not completely oversold here yet but I'm thinking of placing the order for the May GDX calls anyway.  Mentally I'm a bit distracted as I have medical issues to deal with again.  Nothing serious like the last time but a distraction none the less.  The VIX is oversold but shows no signs of wanting to move higher.  The small stocks have been overbought since the beginning of April but I don't see any let up there either.  News due out of Washington on Thursday but I'm not sure if it will affect stocks.  There's a case to made to sitting on the sidelines until next week as well.  I'll figure out what I want to do tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

To the upside for the Dow as it gained 269 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving forward.  The bank earnings were acceptable and today is the prelude for option expiration week.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market as DIS jumped 10%.  Volume picked up today from what its been and new all time highs for the S&P 500 could come as early as next week in my humble opinion.  Of course the SPY April calls would make money as we thought they would.  Perhaps I should have simply paid up for them yesterday.  At least the ideas are heading in the right direction.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm looking at the GDX May calls now and hoping GDX trades back below 22 again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overbought, staying there and we've seen this picture before.  I'm looking for some upside follow through on Monday and then we'll see what happens from there.  Short trading week ahead as Friday is a holiday.  I'm guessing most things for the week will be wrapped up by the close on Wednesday.  There's nothing that doesn't say we can simply plod higher through expiration week.  It now looks like my next trade will be in the gold shares.  But I'll have to look thing over this weekend to be sure.  Another trade missed this week but that seems to be the story so far this year.  Perhaps last years losses are still weighing on the decision making.  However the markets will keep moving and they certainly don't care.  Europe and Asia were higher as money around the world is finding a home in stocks.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is tracking sideways.  I did have an order in for the SPY April calls but it wasn't filled.  I decided not to chase it.  If we have some weakness tomorrow morning I may give it another try.  Otherwise I'll just have to wait for a better set up.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Running out of time in the April option cycle.  I guess we'll take a look at the bank earnings and go from there.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold got drubbed and the futures fell almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed another point, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume picked up to the downside and that is bearish for the gold shares.  Perhaps the GDX May calls will be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would sure like to try the SPY calls here because like I've said before, we've seen this picture time and time again.  Basically sideways for the S&P 500 the past three days as the market decides which way to go.  With option expiration week almost upon us, we know the usual answer will be higher for prices in the near term.  I perhaps should have chased things today but tomorrows open will tell the story.  If it's higher I'll just have to sit things out.  If it's lower, then I may have a chance at a trade.  So we'll see.  Nothing to do but wait for now.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  Brexit has now been postponed until Halloween.  That whole situation is really a joke but at least it hasn't really affected the day to day market action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow managed a gain of 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now in a sideways trend.  The advance/declines reversed themselves from yesterday.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  I wanted to see weakness going into the close tomorrow but today negated that.  I am still considering the SPY April calls though because we've seen the same picture before over and over again approaching option expiration.  The positive bias takes over and the market simply keeps going up despite the overbought technical conditions.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow again and the small stocks are leading the way.  I'll be looking for some weakness tomorrow to purchase the SPY calls.  GE was off a few cents on what now passes for average volume.  Gold was up a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost about 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume seems to be the tone of the market these days.  It has the potential to be dangerous in both directions.  Six days to go in the April option cycle as next week Friday is a holiday.  Bank earnings due this Friday and I'd like to be positioned ahead of that.  I'll be the first to admit that it's risky to try something here but I probably will on market weakness for the SPY calls.  Like I already said, we've seen this picture some many times before that it's about time to cash in on it.  So tomorrow has the potential to be a trading day.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe slightly higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Got the downside we were looking for today as the Dow dropped 190 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways for now.  We were overbought with a light volume rally so the move lower is not unexpected.  We have now rolled over the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices but we're still overbought.  The small stocks didn't do as bad except for RUT.  The question is now where do we try and purchase the SPY April calls before expiration?  I did place an open order for the SPY April puts last night but it wasn't filled.  We opened with a gap down on the SPY, making the optimum buy time for the puts at the close yesterday.  I obviously didn't see that.  GE dropped 1/4 on good volume.  Some downside follow through there.  Gold added $6 on the futures.  The US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Waiting patiently to get the GDX calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose now my next trading attempt will be the SPY April calls before next weeks expiration.  Next week will be a day short with a holiday on Friday.  Bank earnings will be due on Friday so if I try this idea the purchase will have to be in the next two sessions.  If we continue lower tomorrow and the next day, that would be the ideal situation.  But we all know that the market rarely cooperates with what we want.  Right now my thinking is to let tomorrow pass and try the calls at some point on Thursday.  But I could also scuttle this trade as well depending on what happens between now and then.  Volume has been really light lately and that isn't a bullish development.  There's also a potential large double top on the SPY weekly chart.  However I'm more inclined to think that we are going to hit new all time highs soon and continue upwards to form a potential bearish huge megaphone pattern.  Just a guess as always.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another mixed bag to start the week as the Dow fell 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 showing gains.  All the markets opened lower and then continued to find buyers throughout the session as has been the case for quite a while now.  We're still short term overbought and staying there.  I think for a short term trade that strength tomorrow can be sold and I will be looking at the SPY April puts.  The idea will be to be out by the end of the week if I do make a purchase.  It's a strictly short term idea, as the trend is up and perhaps waiting for a slight pullback to get long into expiration is the better play.  We'll see.  GE fell 1/2 on very heavy volume.  There was an analyst downgrade of GE early in the morning.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added a point, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  We're in a good seasonal zone for gold at the moment.  I'm still hoping and waiting for a dip back below 22 on GDX but the short term technical indicators have already turned back up here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earnings season will be back in session starting on Friday with the potential to drive things either way.  We'll get some inflation data and the Fed minutes this week.  However the trend is up until proven otherwise.  There just doesn't seem to be any sellers out there or a catalyst to drive things lower.  Why try the SPY puts then?  There is something to be said about complacency.  The VIX is oversold and continues that way.  The general tone in the media these days is that the market can only go higher.  Even minor sell offs are quickly bought.  At some point, that won't happen.  My thinking is that will happen this week.  If we do rally tomorrow, I'm going to try the SPY puts unless there is some dramatic news out overnight.  That's the game plan for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight.  Brexit is still in the headlines but another extension of the deadline appears to be on tap again.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The jobs report was a bit better than expected but you get the feeling here that the market will rally no matter what.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and I did not get any SPY puts today.  I am thinking about it for sometime next week but it would certainly be bucking the trend.  Long rallies are highlighted by an extended short term overbought market condition.  That is what we're seeing now.  I'm not sure what will derail things as this point.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beat goes on.  The VIX continues lower as volatility has taken a holiday.  There's no overhead resistance for the S&P 500 until we get to the old all time highs.  At the rate we are going we should set a new all time high before the April option expiration on the 18th.  The only caveat that I see is the low volume heading up here.  But we could get a burst of buying through the old highs on good volume and that would take care of that.  Just a guess on my part as the market will go and do what it wants.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and see if trying the SPY puts is even a viable idea.  I'm still looking at the GDX calls if we get back below the 22 level.  Probably out to the May options there if there's a trade.  I'm not sure that there's anything to derail the market here unless something comes out of left field from the US/China talks.  But these talks have been going on for what seems like forever at this point.  Asia was mixed with some markets closed.  Europe was up.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow rose 166 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The broader market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a loss on the session.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted but we'll see where we go tomorrow after the jobs report.  I could make a case here for trying the SPY April puts but I did not purchase any.  If I did it would strictly have to be short term because I'm a believer in higher prices going forward into the option expiration on the 18th.  We've seen this picture before.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as it opened lower and closed higher along with the gold shares.  The US dollar was lower today.  The gold shares had a one day reversal to the upside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was average.  I did place an open order for the GDX April calls overnight.  I was looking things over last night and decided that the gold shares could indeed rise from here.  There was no follow through on the trend line break.  Unfortunately my order wasn't filled as the price of the option have more than doubled in a day.  Just another missed opportunity.  However if we get back below 22 again, I'll head out to the GDX May calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the major averages.  I am thinking about fading any strength possibly tomorrow for a short term SPY put trade.  But we know that overbought markets can continue to stay that way.  I can make a technical case for the idea but I'm not sure if it's prudent to do so.  I guess I'll keep an eye on the reaction to the employment report and decide from there.  I'm certainly not pleased on missing the gold share call trade but what can you do?  Perhaps If had been paying better attention I would have seen it before last night.  All you can do is keep on going.  As they say, missed money is better than losing money.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see if we get any fireworks out of the jobs report and finish out the week tomorrow.

We bounced around today but the Dow did finish with a gain of 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We were higher from the start but then about halfway through the session sellers emerged to take us into negative territory.  Buyers returned and we finished positive on the day.  The S&P 500 is still short term overbought.  Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now.  No trades in mind at the moment but I'm still leaning bullish and am hoping for some type of pullback.  There's still plenty of time in the April option cycle to get something done.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume isn't what it used to be here.  Gold was a bit lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on very light volume again.  There's all of a sudden no interest in the gold shares and I can't see how that's positive.  My guess is things will get moving here on the employment report be it weak or strong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK. but have a slight back ache.  It isn't affecting my concentration at the moment.  I always think that the day before the jobs report will be running in place.  That only happens about half the time.  During up trends the market can stay overbought for quite some time.  That is what I believe we are experiencing now.  There is a possible negative divergence on the S&P 500 daily RSI indicator but a solid up day will negate that.  There is no overhead resistance for the S&P until we reach the former all time highs.  That's a positive factor that can't be ignored.  So I'll be patient here for now.  I do still like the gold shares but the break of the up trend line is a concern and a reason to be cautious on the long side right now.  Short term oversold though.  Never easy in the game.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money continues its worldwide flow into stocks.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was pretty much a day of running in place although eh Dow did lose 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow as the NASDAQ gained almost 20 points.  As long as the small stocks show leadership we are going higher.  The TRAN and RUT were slightly lower today but it's probably just a breather.  Not a lot of economic news today just some more rumblings of Brexit.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but it can stay that way for a while in up trends.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold added a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on extremely light volume.  Short term oversold now for the gold shares but I'm in no rush just yet to step in to purchase the GDX calls.  If we just go sideways for the rest of the week I may consider it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still looking for higher prices as we continue on with the week.  There's nothing right now that would change that view.  Waiting on the jobs report Friday.  Volume isn't what it was but we're still trending higher.  As long as we continue to have highs above highs and lows above lows, you can tell what the trend is.  Staying patient for now and hoping for a chance to try the SPY April calls before expiration.  Although I will concede that the easy chance for that has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher but NIKK was flat.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

And away we go as the Dow climbed 329 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  Stocks were higher around the world as money flows continue into equities.  Better news out of China was the catalyst as the US data was not inspiring.  We are only going higher from here in my opinion but it looks like it's too late to participate.  Any declines can be bought.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar ended the session little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  The up trend line in GDX that had been in effect since November was violated to the downside today.  I did not buy the calls when we got to the line like I said I should have done previously.  There's now a potential double top in place for GDX but that hasn't been confirmed yet.  I can make the case for support at another up trend line at 20.5, which coincides with the 200 day moving average.  However that's a long way from where we are now and would take quite some time to develop.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Breaking out to new highs on the year for the S&P 500.  The next overhead resistance would be the all time highs at around 2950 which is still quite a way to go.  At this rate we are going to get there.  Barring some negative unforeseen headline coming out of nowhere, we're going up.  With just a little under three weeks to go in the April option cycle, I hope to get another chance to participate.  Missing trades is as painful as losing trades but the game simply keeps moving along.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up ahead of the employment report on Friday.  Foreign stocks were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.