A rally today although we did finish well off of the intra-day highs.  The Dow gained 254 points on average volume.  We were up over 400 at one point during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  I did not expect such a huge gain today as I thought that the market would be quiet heading into a long weekend.  Perhaps it was the end of the month and quarter activity that drove todays trading.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses.  I should probably get rid of them next week regardless of the outcome.  We are still holding onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P but that could change next week.  I'll need to see an early week rally in order to cut the loss on my position.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was good.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/2 while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was lighter than lately.  We haven't gotten completely oversold on the gold shares yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 despite todays rise.  These indicators have turned up but still have a ways to go to get to overbought.  Three weeks remain in the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still far out of the money.  That is why my best hope is for an early week rally next week and an exit from this trade.  We've got the employment report on Friday and I probably should not wait for that.  However I usually hold on to my trades for too long and that could always happen again.  I cannot stress enough how important it is for the bulls here for the market to hang on.  A drop below the 200 day moving average would be catastrophic for the market right now in my opinion.  I am seeing some other indicators that I follow showing buy signals on a longer term basis.  Whether or not that pans out we'll know in the coming weeks.  The indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  A drop below 17.5 here would break the recent uptrend line and give me some hope for the SPY trade.  Hasn't happened yet and there is no guarantee that it will.  A VIX drop to the 15 level would be a sign to try the SPY puts.  That's the way I see things there at the moment.  There will be plenty to look at over the long weekend but a break from the action is advised as well.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  It was an interesting first quarter for the stock market.  Perhaps the second quarter will be a little different but of course nobody knows for sure.  My trading in the first quarter was abysmal and can only improve from here.  It's Thursday afternoon in front of an extended weekend.  Time for a break.     

The market just hung around today despite moving up and down.  The Dow lost 9 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks are doing poorly and the market won't be going up if that remains the case.  My SPY April calls are still showing major losses.  I'm giving this trade until the middle of next week depending on what we do from here.  Probably should have dropped out yesterday.  The S&P 500 is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Rumors still flying around on who is accumulating this stock.  Gold lost almost $20 on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume remains good to the downside.  Perhaps my idea for the GDX September calls is the wrong one.  The fundamentals for gold do remain negative in my mind.  So maybe I'll just forget about this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is moving on headlines.  Today Washington had negative things to say about AMZN and it lost 5%, leading the overall market lower.  There is some economic data coming out tomorrow but it's the day before a long weekend.  Like I said yesterday I don't see a lot of buying coming in on the last day of the month but I could be wrong.  We are at a very important juncture for the market because if we don't hold things in right here it will get ugly fast.  Maybe we'll see a short covering rally tomorrow before the weekend.  But that is simply a hope at this point.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are oversold.  However they show no signs of wanting to move up.  Perhaps we can just hang around tomorrow as well and wait for the beginning of April next week.  I will say the longer that we don't simply drop here the more positive that I'll feel.  When markets go down they just move lower.  Hanging around here may produce the double bottom that is potentially out there for most of the major stock indices.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher in overnight trading action.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 344 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We were up over 200 points halfway through the session.  But the market simply started to drop off from there and just kept going.  The small stocks were much weaker and that's a problem for the bulls.  If we don't hold up tomorrow, I believe the market will really start to find trouble.  If the S&P 500 closes below its 200 day moving average, that would spell more problems for obtaining higher prices.  My SPY April calls are still losers.  I did have a good opportunity to cut the loss today but did not take it.  Why tomorrow is so important is because we got the expected bounce already and that may have been it.  If we head lower from here you'll know that the bear market is in place.  GE found some life on speculation somebody is picking up its shares.  And by somebody, I mean a major trader.  GE finished with a gain of over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  GE is now trying to hold the $13 level after failing at $14.  Gold dropped $11 as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I'm thinking about going out to the September calls for GDX.  I'll be waiting until it gets short term oversold before pulling the trigger on this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only 2 days left in the trading week and things could get thin on Thursday as players leave early for a holiday weekend.  The price action here is pretty negative.  Tomorrow is going to be a key as to where we are going.  The VIX rose again today and it's got plenty of room to go either way.  We've got the end of the month on Thursday.  I can't think that there would be too many traders wanting to get long ahead of the extended weekend.  That could prove to be a problem.  But first we have to get through tomorrow.  I probably should have simply exited my call position today.  I am still holding out hope that we'll hold the 200 day moving average and that this is a double bottom forming in the S&P 500.  We'll know pretty soon.  Europe and Asia both rallied overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Quite a bounce today as the Dow climbed 669 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were completely oversold any way you look at it.  So a bounce was due.  We got it and now comes the question of where do we go from here?  The short term technical indicators are still in the oversold zone.  So there's plenty of room for improvement there.  But in sustained downtrends, rallies spring out of nowhere.  Today fits that picture.  If the market is going to hold up here, it will have to continue to the upside.  Maybe not tomorrow or later in the week but overall it would have to move higher in the next week or so.  It is a shortened holiday week with not much in the way of economic data due out.  So we'll probably be driven by the headlines or latest news out of Washington.  My SPY April calls are still in the red but they did recover some of the loss.  How to manage this trade from here will determine the extent of the loss.  I don't think that it will get back to break even.  I could be wrong.  GE was off over 1/8 on good volume.  A market up over 600 points and GE cannot even show a gain.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar continued lower.  This relationship is in sync.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was slightly better than average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see where we go from here.  Will the summation index turn around or will the selling continue?  We've got the end of the trading month coming up on Thursday.  The weekly charts do not look bullish, so today could be all the upside we get.  The technical indicators there are showing lower lows with last weeks debacle.  It is a wait and see matter at this point.  Plenty of time left in the April option cycle.  However my entry on this trade was about as bad as it gets as we dropped about 1000 points after the entry.  I suppose there's a chance that we could head back up towards the short term uptrend line that was recently broken.  But that may just be wishful thinking on my part.  The market always goes where it wants.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action and see if we get any upside follow through in the US tomorrow. 

The stock market got clobbered again as the Dow lost 425 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Extremely oversold on some of the short and medium term technical indicators so a bounce cannot be too far off.  I'm getting killed in my SPY April call trade as the market has dropped over 1000 points since I purchased theses yesterday.  I'll sell out at a loss on the bounce.  What if there is no bounce?  Then things will be getting really ugly and fast.  The last two days will seem like nothing.  But I really do not expect that to occur.  However as usual the market will do what it wants.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average and that should provide some near term support.  But like I said, if it doesn't then watch out.  GE lost another 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained twenty bucks as we got some flight to safety buying there.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/8, while GDX gained 5/8 on good volume.  I'm not sure how long this can last because in my mind the fundamentals for gold are still bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling so-so.  My trading has been so bad lately that I'm beginning to think all that I've learned over the years means nothing.  That's what losing in the game will do to you.  Your confidence will be lost and there is no chance for success like that.  My failure to recognize and act on what the market is telling you is really starting to cost me.  But as I've already stated before, when the technical indicators stop working I'm at a loss.  We are in a zone where normally you would see a multi hundred point rally due to the extremely oversold market condition.  I expect that in the next couple of days.  If we don't see that happen then anything goes to the downside.  The fact that we closed with selling again is not a plus.  But we are at the 200 day moving average for the S&P and also at the lows of early February.  So we should see the bulls try and make a stand here early next week.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I'll be taking a loss in this SPY April call trade but I will try and cut it back if we do see a short term rally.  There is plenty of time left in the April option cycle but I do not want to hold this trade that long.  I do not think that the market is going to have an extended rally from here.  Foreign markets took it on the chin as well with Asia getting the worst of it.  I'll be looking things over this weekend but the game plan has already been established for the beginning of next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow got clobbered today on trade war fears and lost 724 points on a bit better than average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has now turned lower.  It was a weak start to the session but we managed to hang a round a two to three hundred point loss.  I did buy some SPY April calls.  We collapsed in the final couple of hours and my position has lost almost half of its value.  One of my indicators is overblown to the downside and that only happens when the market falls apart.  It looks like yet another losing trade here.  We'll get some kind of snap back eventually but it probably won't be in time to save this trade.  I'm not sure why my read of the market has been so poor lately.  The VIX spiked up today but the summation index is not near the crash zone.  However the market goes where it wants to.  All the major stock indices got creamed today and some closed right on their lows.  Unless we get some type of rally attempt tomorrow, this trade is doomed.  GE lost 1/2 on average volume.  Perhaps GE not holding the $14 level was a clue but it's always easy to see things in retrospect.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures and the US dollar showed a slight gain.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX was off 1/3 on average volume.  No flight to the gold shares for safety.  Mentally I'm feeling ambivalent.  When the trading indicators that I follow don't work I'm really at a loss of what to do.  Perhaps I should just get out of this trade and wait for a better opportunity down the road.  I really thought that this trade had a chance as like I said before.  We don't get the readings that we're seeing on one of my indicators unless the market is going to collapse.  The market usually doesn't collapse unless the summation index is near the zero line.  The indicator is saying the market is a strong buy.  Yet we fell apart today.  These are the kind of things that I'm struggling with at the moment.  Todays price action does tell me that my original scenario of the overall bull market top being in for the S&P 500 is valid.  We won't be seeing any more new all time highs there this year.  I guess my best advice here is hold on to your seats because it looks like it will be quite a bumpy ride.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some bouncing around after the Fed today and the Dow closed with a loss of 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished well off of the highs today.  The Fed notched up rates as expected.  There weren't any surprises.  It looks like I may try the SPY April calls tomorrow if we see some early weakness.  I'll have to go over things again tonight but I think this idea has some merit in the short term.  The option premiums are expensive so the timing in and out will have to be pretty good.  I'll ponder this some more tonight.  GE was up 1/4 on what passes for average volume here these days.  Stuck in a down trend and I'm looking at the SPY right now.  Any trades in GE will have to wait.  Gold gained over $20 on the futures as the US dollar got whacked.  A rise in interest rates and gold rises while the dollar falls?  That is pretty much counter intuitive.  It is no wonder why trading these markets is the toughest game in the world.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX climbed 5/8.  Volume was heavy.  what does the market know that we don't?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm looking to attempt my next trade tomorrow if all goes according to plan.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range and I'm expecting them to turn back up here.  The summation index is moving sideways and that could continue and this trade could still work.  Unless we see a collapse like we had on Monday, I'll probably be trying this trade.  I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to it but I will be exiting rather quickly if it doesn't work.  Another problem with plenty of time to go in the option cycle is that the premiums don't move as much with the underlying index.  What I mean by that is the SPY could have a decent move and the options won't move as much accordingly.  However if my timing is right on this idea, there will still be money to be made.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

A bit of some upside today and that was expected as the Dow rose 116 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  It was a weak bounce and that does not inspire a lot of confidence.  That said I am looking at the SPY April calls now if the market cooperates with the scenario that I have in mind.  If we see weakness into Thursday, I'm willing to attempt a trade there on the call side for the short term.  We're already short term oversold here even with todays feeble rally.  But the market would have to trend lower from here to try this idea out.  We'll have to see the reaction to the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  GE was off 3/8 on average volume and has broken through the $14 level.  I won't be trying any trades here at the moment.  Gold was off $7 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush to trade here but if things line up I do believe that it will be worth a short term shot.  One of the problems here is that the April option cycle has an extra week in it and that causes the premiums to be inflated.  But if the time is going to be right for this idea, I'll have to pay up in order to take the chance.  Tomorrow should be a wait and see morning on the Fed in the afternoon.  I have no idea what will happen but it is a given that short term rates will be going up a notch.  That is already in the market in my opinion so I suppose we'll have to see what the Fed head has to say afterwards and how the market responds.  My hope is that it's a non-event and we roll into Thursday.  The market rarely cooperates.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 335 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back down but for now I'll call it sideways.  The small stocks led the way down with the indices that made new all time highs now breaking their up trend lines that began in early February.  Perhaps the market is just nervous ahead of the Fed but it looked like technology led the way down.  We are short term oversold here and some kind of bounce should materialize.  GE was off 1/4 on lighter volume.  We'll see if the $14 level can hold things in here for GE again.  Gold gained about $5 as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  We'll see if we get some real movement here after the Fed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up over 20 today and we'll see if that is a sign of things to come.  Not a lot of economic data out this week so It's all about the Fed.  A rise in rates is expected so I don't expect any surprises there.  But you never know.  Todays market action was not anticipated by me so perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  We're getting the usual rants out of Washington that the market ignores.  There was some negative Facebook headlines but nothing that appeared too serious.  We did come up off of the lows for the session but it was still an ugly start to the trading week.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  There is a short term buy signal out there but since we just rolled into the April option cycle, the premiums are too high to take a position in my opinion.  So I'll be watching and waiting for now.  We'll let the Fed pass and go from there.  There is no hurry to put on a trade.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines and developments heading into Tuesday. 

Another kind of mixed bag as the Dow gained 72 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall indexes were weaker than the Dow though.  The summation index has started to trend sideways.  We're basically waiting on the Fed here and that won't happen until Wednesday of next week.  Getting short term oversold on one of my indicators.  I'm in a wait and see mode as we're rolling into the April option cycle.  GE lost a nickel and volume was pretty good.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll wait on the Fed and go from there.  The April time period can sometimes be pretty slow.  It can be a time of little movement and conviction.  I'm not sure the reason but perhaps tax season is the cause.  This doesn't happen every year but the possibility is out there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend and I'll try to figure something out.  The move to new highs in some of the small stock indices has yet to be confirmed by the RSI.  I'll be keeping an eye out on that.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower.  The most watched index gained 115 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This might turn the summation index into a sideways configuration.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower.  No reasons for todays market movement as it appears we are simply drifting into option expiration tomorrow.  No trades in mind for now.  GE was up a dime and the volume was lighter than we've seen lately.  Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar rose.  The XAU fell a point while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to say about todays price action.  The technical picture remains the same with the short term indicators having just rolled over.  Getting to short term oversold on one of my indicators though.  The VIX has only slightly ticked up here with this weeks lower prices so far.  I suppose we'll get through expiration tomorrow and then wait on the Fed next Wednesday.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 248 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  Retail sales did come up light today.  However I don't think this decline is the beginning of a rout to the downside.  The small stocks remain relatively stronger and that is a plus.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over though.  We aren't seeing the usual expiration week positive bias.  We're just going to have to wait and see where things go for the rest of the week.  GE was off over 1/8 but the volume was lighter.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved again on very light volume.  No interest in the gold shares either way here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm at a loss for trading ideas here as I don't have any valid signals at the moment.  I'm also rethinking my main thesis that the rally from 2009 is over.  I was a firm believer in that thesis until the last trade and the small stocks making new all time highs.  I'm just going to let things play out for the rest of the week here and roll into the April option cycle.  With only 2 days left here in the March cycle, sitting on the sidelines appears to be the best choice for me.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower today as the Dow shed 171 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Some weakness was expected as we were short term overbought on some of the technical indicators.  Whether or not this turns into some thing else remains to be seen.  The overall market was weak along with the Dow this time around.  However the VIX didn't move that much and volume was weak.  The inflation data was in line with expectations.  In political news, the US secretary of state was fired.  Perhaps that led to some market uncertainty.  But we'll stick with the technicals and look for perhaps some more selling this week.  I have no SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE had its rally cut short and dropped 1/3 today on heavy volume.  It looks like any trades done here need to be quick in nature.  Take profits when you get them.  Perhaps if we get back down to $14 I'll try the April calls here.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX barely budged on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three days left in the March option cycle and it will be interesting to see where we go from here.  The daily candlestick charts look bearish for the major stock indices.  However we just saw how the three black crows candlestick pattern did not work out for the SPY put trade.  That doesn't mean that you just throw out the candlesticks though.  There's also the potential negative daily RSI divergence on the small stocks to consider.  Another couple of days like today and that signal will be valid.  Hasn't happened yet.  I'm in a wait and see mode for now.  I won't be forcing any trade here and I'll simply have to patiently wait for the next perceived signal.  Last night Asia was mixed and Europe lower in trading.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index closed 157 points lower on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks showing gains.  As long as that condition persists the trend shall remain up.  The summation index is moving higher as well.  No trades for me here as there are only 4 days left in the March option cycle.  I do expect some weakness at some point this week because we are short term overbought on one of my indicators and have been for a couple of days.  There is some economic data out this week that could affect the market such as the CPI and retail sales.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  GE has a seven day rally going for it at the moment.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume.  I still think that the fundamentals here for gold are bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekend has passed and I had plenty of time to forget about the losing trade on Friday.  The thing about this game is that you've just got to keep moving on.  Win or lose the game keeps going forward.  Although I expect some weakness this week I also would not be surprised if we close out higher as well.  The internals still seem to favor higher prices for now.  Next week could be different as we'll have the Fed to deal with.  Bur for now my overall point of view is that higher prices are coming and perhaps some more new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence in a couple of the small stock indices including the NASDAQ.  But whether that actually means anything remains to be seen.  Mt take on things lately has been wrong.  Hence a trip to the sidelines is where I am.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market took off higher from the start as the Dow roared ahead by 440 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  My SPY March put trade was a loser by 75%.  The employment number didn't matter as the market broke through to new all time highs on some of the small stock indices.  The S&P 500 broke through the short term down trend line, following what the small stocks had already done.  The three black crows candlestick pattern did not work out.  My indicator that was short term overbought simply stayed that way.  It was just another losing trade that has become all too common here for me lately.  It's back to the drawing board for me.  GE was up 3/8 on OK volume and appears to be poised to head higher from here.  In retrospect the March call idea there would have worked.  Gold finished up a couple bucks while the US dollar ended little changed.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  The strong jobs number did nothing much to gold and the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated at yet another losing trade.  Trading with just a week or so left in the option cycle leaves no room for error.  I'm better trading near the beginning of the option cycle months.  Perhaps this time I'll keep that in mind.  The market wants to go higher here and I did have that thought at some point this week.  Didn't pay attention though.  It now looks like my whole underlying theory of the final market top being put in for the bull market is wrong.  It appears that we have higher to go for the S&P 500.  The small stocks continue to be in the lead and that can't be ignored.  Keep an eye on them for the clues since they have been the leaders either way for quite a while.  An upwards summation index is another clue as to the overall direction.  The market has a mind of its own as usual.  While a strong employment report might have been a concern for higher rates, the market chose to focus on the fact that the economy is in good shape.  It is an interesting game and a difficult one at the same time.  I made yet another mistake and mistakes in this game cost you.  I can only go back and reassess what I did wrong and go from there.  I will take a long look at the charts this weekend but it's safe to say that I'll be on the sidelines until my confidence returns.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We bounced around for most of the day, with a final whipsaw back and forth the in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 93 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  I placed an order for the SPY March puts early, changed it and then changed it back again.  I finally decided that if I could get it at the price that I wanted, I would give it a try.  The order was finally filled in the last half hour gyration.  It is showing a small loss.  I am certainly not sure this is the right move but if the three black crows candlestick pattern is legitimate, this trade will work.  We still haven't made it up to the 2750 level on the S&P 500 but we're getting close.  Of course we could simply blast through there tomorrow on the jobs report.  That would doom this trade.  The VIX is at the moment of truth as well.  It did make it down to the 15 level today and closed right at the 50 day moving average.  So volatility will either pick up here or that period is over for now.  Lots of questions and we should get the answers rather soon.  As in tomorrow.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  So the next trade is on and I do think that things could still go one way or the other.  But we did get a light volume drift higher this week and that was something I was looking for.  As long as we don't get a huge rally on good volume tomorrow, I'm inclined to hold this trade into next week.  We are short term overbought on one of my indicators but could always just stay that way.  That is how things went last year but this is 2018.  I got the price I was looking for on the SPY puts, now it is a matter of time and where the market goes.  I have no idea what will be reported tomorrow but as usual the only thing that matters is the market reaction to it.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trading.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and await the employment report tomorrow.

We had a gap lower at the open and the Dow was off around 350 points during the session.  We did stage a comeback though and the Dow finished with a loss of 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the plus.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here.  I wanted to chase the move lower this morning but didn't.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts but canceled it later on.  I might try again tomorrow but this trade would be highly risky.  There's only 7 days left in the March option cycle and we have the jobs report on Friday.  The market tried to sell off today and failed.  The short term technical indicators for the major big cap indices are mid-range.  So we could go either way but things look like they are leaning towards a break out to the upside.  The only caveats being the three black crows candlestick pattern that remains out there along with the short term down trend line in the S&P 500.  That comes in at the 2750 level.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  GE made a comeback from its lows, following the overall market.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a little higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  So which way we will go here?  I'm pretty sure we'll know by Friday.  The market is kind of shrugging off a lot of bad political news here.  That is generally bullish.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength and that is a positive.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average.  A move lower through there would probably send us off into full rally mode.  I'm still considering the SPY March puts though.  I can bail out Friday morning if they turn out to be the wrong move.  I am still a believer in the three black crows pattern for now.  If we somehow make it to the 2750 level in the S&P tomorrow, I'll try the puts.  I may try them anyway.  Waiting for Friday will probably be too late if they are going to work.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

We bounced around today and the Dow managed a gain of 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Once again the overall market was much stronger that the Dow.  The small stocks are showing good relative strength and that is usually bullish.  The RUT has broken through its short term down trend line.  The market looks like it is poised to go higher.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts and have left it open overnight.  But this may not be the right move.  I am counting on the three black crows candlestick pattern on the daily charts here to be valid.  Not all patterns play out as they're supposed to.  This may be the case here.  The market certainly has a right to go where it wants.  I'll consider canceling this trade tonight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on lighter volume.  Maybe GE has finally reached its bottom and that would help with the bullish cause for the overall market.  Gold found a bid and gained $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is continuing to move lower and heading back to its 50 day moving average.  That would be a logical spot to try the S&P 500 puts again as well.  But we aren't there yet.  8 days to go in the March option cycle, so the risk in a trade now is elevated with each passing day.  If we continue to drift ahead of Friday, I'll probably try the SPY March calls.  Ideally we'd levitate higher on light volume into the close on Thursday and that would be the time to take a chance on the puts.  However I must caution that the some of the small stock indices have triangle patterns on their daily charts.  The triangles have a flat top and imply a breakout to the upside very soon.  So we've got conflicting signals on some of the charts patterns.  I'll simply continue to monitor what's going on and try and make the correct decision going forward.  Asia had good overnight gains but Europe not so much.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It's a good start to the week for the most watched index as it gained 336 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  I did place an order for the SPY March calls this morning but it wasn't filled.  My guess now is that it is probably too late for them.  But we'll see.  The next question to be answered is what happens if and when we get to the down trend line in the S&P 500 at around 2750.  We had a nice move today and we'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  GE rose almost 1/3 on good volume.  I canceled my open order for the March calls here.  It looks like that idea would have worked out but the option premiums did not hit my target buy price.  We'll see how things play out into the expiration.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume.  Not much interest in the gold shares here and the fundamentals remain negative in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A good start to the week but there's a long way to go as we've got the employment report coming up on Friday.  OK, this time I'm sure the numbers will be out on Friday.  My thinking at this time is that if we get to the 2750 level on the SPX, I'll give the March puts a try.  If we simply blast through that level and the small stocks make new all time highs then my thinking here is wrong.  If we meander around for the rest of the week, I'll feel better about trying this idea.  Getting the calls on weakness this morning was the right move, so I feel as though I'm getting a handle on what's going on with the market.  One of my beliefs at the moment is that we saw a bearish pattern develop on the S&P last week.  Three black crows occurred on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P.  That implies lower prices going forward, today not withstanding.  If that pattern is correct, we will see the market turn back down at some point in the near future.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow. 

The Dow had another losing session as it shed 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  That tells you that the overall market was stronger than the Dow and much so.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I saw nothing about the employment report so I guess it's coming out next Friday.  My mistake.  It appears the market is wary of a trade war with the ramblings of Trump.  We'll see.  I'm going to be looking at getting some SPY March calls on Monday if there's any weakness.  Today may have been the day to purchase them for a short term trade.  But I wanted to let this day pass to reassess things over the weekend.  I at least stuck to that plan.  GE rose ten cents on good volume.  I've left in the open order here for the March calls but again, I'll rethink this idea over the weekend as well.  Gold got an $18 bump up today as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  No love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice recovery in the overall market today with the small stocks leading the way again.  That tells me that perhaps the decline has run its course.  The key will probably be when we get to the short term down trend line in the S&P 500 at around 2760.  We've formed a wedge or triangle here and around that level will be the moment of truth.  That's how I see things at the moment.  Subject to change with further review over the weekend.  With the small stocks showing good relative strength, that normally means that they are the leaders one way or the other.  But again I'm going to have to take a step back and look things over.  I'll be checking the charts in the next two days as usual to try and come up with a plan for next week.  Two weeks to go in the March option cycle, so there's time to get some kind of trade going.  Europe and Asia closed lower to finish out the week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another downer for stocks as the Dow lost 420 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 400 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term up trend line has been broken and the technical indicators have rolled over.  That's over 1000 points in three days for the Dow and volatility has returned.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm not expecting any kind of huge drop.  That said, we are moving closer to the zero line in the summation index.  That is the line in the sand for some type of crash event.  We aren't there yet but even getting close is a worry.  I guess the market doesn't like the new Fed chairman but we all know that it isn't that easy.  GE lost nine cents for a new closing low for the year.  Volume remains heavy here.  I still have the open order out there for the March calls here.  This may not be the best idea but I'm willing to give it a try.  Gold was flat on the session as it came up off of the lows.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares are at their recent lows and need to hang in here or they will be going a lot lower in my view.  Interest rates have been dropping this week but it hasn't helped the market so far.  Once again, I'm not sure what is going on here.  One of the things that worries me is that the technical indicators still have plenty of room to fall.  So some of my thinking is that if we get a rally out of nowhere, that could be the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Just a thought for now.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow go by and reassess things over the weekend.  The jobs number may not mean anything because it seems that the market has a mind of its own right now.  It knows things that we don't.  Volume is increasing with each day lower so far.  But the small stocks have had better relative strength in this weeks decline.  That usually means that we aren't on the verge of a major breakdown.  Perhaps this is the retest of the lows from early February.  That's just a guess as usual.  Like I said, I think I'll watch what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was mostly lower with the exception of China and Hong Kong.  Europe was down.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.