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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

We tried and failed to rally a couple times today and the Dow finished off by 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but not by much.  My theory of higher prices in the beginning of the week didn't happen.  But we are due for some kind of bounce in my opinion.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a decent move within the next 2 days.  That means if the signal is valid it will be tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators are trying to curl back up.  My SPY October puts are about where I bought them.  GE was off about 20 cents on OK volume.  Gold dropped almost $15 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/2 on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  I'm sold on the idea that we're going to roll over here.  However the RUT just broke through its resistance and closed above 1450.  It has led the way many times in this bull market.  The other small stock indices have rolled over though.  But the TRAN is strong here as well.  So it really is a mixed picture and you can make a case for both ways.  We are in a seasonally weak period but haven't seen any meaningful decline.  We have yet to even see a 5% correction this year in the Dow.  There's plenty of time in the October option cycle and I plan on holding this trade until it gets stopped out or I take the profit.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with minor moves.  We'll see if we get the big move implied by the oscillator signal on Wednesday. 

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