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Friday, September 22, 2017

More hanging around today as the Dow fell 9 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  The RUT is right at the resistance of 1450.  I'm thinking that we'll get some strength early next week which would produce some kind of short squeeze higher.  Unfortunately I'd be getting squeezed this time around since I'm holding the SPY October puts.  They are still showing a small loss.  Once again, if I do get stopped out I'll try this trade again.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was up five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Short term oversold on the technical indicators for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still 4 weeks to go in the October option cycle with plenty of time.  I do think that there's a chance of another run up in the near term.  However I'm also just as convinced that we'll see some type of drop during this option cycle.  The potential RSI negative divergence is still there on the S&P weekly chart.  Plus the volume here lately has been very weak and that is never a positive for higher prices.  But like I said, that doesn't rule out another bounce higher to run in the shorts.  However we've got the VIX below 10 and that won't last the entire time left in the October option cycle either.  My strategy is already in place and I'll be ready to adjust if necessary.  I'll reassess after looking over the details on the charts this weekend.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher last night.  It's the first day of autumn and the end of the week.  Time for a break.

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