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Wednesday, September 06, 2017

A bounce back today but we did sell off in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 54 points on a bit less than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  No follow through yet to yesterdays decline.  The short term indicators are still in the overbought zone.  I'm still of the thought that we will be heading lower over time.  It is just a matter of where to try the SPY puts for me at this point.  Heading to the October option cycle is what I'm considering.  However there is an extra week in that option cycle and the premiums are high.  I don't anticipate any more trades for the September cycle.  GE was up 16 cents on heavy volume.  Gold was off five bucks today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost a buck, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So where do we go from here?  We've got retail sales data due out on Friday and that could be a market mover.  We are still at the mercy of headline risk.  There is an event in North Korea over the weekend that could produce more fear.  So I doubt that there will be a lot of buying ahead of that.  We won't even consider the next headline out of Washington for now.  Technically we're more overbought than anything else at the moment.  So some more decline isn't out of the question.  I suppose that I'm hoping for sideways action into the expiration and then we'll take it from there.  But the market always goes where it wants and rarely cooperates with my ideas lately.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the developments tonight.    

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