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Monday, September 18, 2017

More new highs as the Dow gained 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market may be on hold until we get the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  We're still short term overbought and staying that way.  Things technically could go either way after the Fed despite the short term overbought status.  I did place an open order for the SPY October puts this morning but it wasn't filled.  I've left it in overnight but may change my mind by the open tomorrow.  There's a chance that the small caps could break to the upside here and then we'd be off to the races.  There's no overhead resistance once we get above where we are now on the small caps.  It's either that or we have some kind of double top put in.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  If GE can finally get something going to the upside, that would paint a bullish picture as well.  Gold fell $14 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was about average.  Gold seems to have lost some of its luster as rates in the US have ticked higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose that I'm convinced that the weak seasonal pattern for the stock market is about to show up here.  That combined with the overbought condition of the market at the moment are two reasons to look at the puts here.  The light volume is another.  My hope is that we'll see one more attempt at new all time highs.  That would be the ideal time to try the SPY puts in my mind.  But we know the market rarely cooperates and there's the possibility that we have some kind of blow off top first as well.  As with any trade, there's always some risk.  However getting short in here at the moment seems to present less risk than getting long.  We'll have to see how things go tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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