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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

We attempted a sell off today but the market refused to go down as the Dow gained 41 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow dropped to down around 50 points after the Fed but then came all the way back.  I think we could go a bit higher near term but really are overdue for some decline.  My SPY October puts are showing a small loss.  If this trade gets stopped out, I will simply try it again at a higher strike price.  My work suggests some strength at the beginning of next week.  Perhaps trying the puts again then will be the next idea depending on what happens the rest of this week.  I do feel that at some point the SPY October puts will be where you want to be.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  I will be trying the longer term calls here at some point.  Gold was off $6 on a stronger US dollar after the Fed.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what the next catalyst for market movement will be from here.  Still overbought and staying that way.  Perhaps we'll see the speculative blow off top.  But that's just a guess.  The TRAN had a good day and RUT is about to make a new all time high.  If the small stocks get going here and break to new highs as well it will be rally mode all around.  It will be interesting to see if RUT climbs above 1450.  That's the level to watch in my mind for now.  Otherwise it appears that I'm early on the SPY October puts here.  We did not get the sustained sell off from the Fed that I had anticipated.  Managing the trade from here is the task at hand.  Perhaps I'll bail out before the weekend and look to reestablish the position next week.  It's something to consider.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the market digests the Fed overnight.       

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