We finished off the year with a new closing high as the Dow gained 72 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We'll take a day off tomorrow and then begin trading for 2014.  The stock indices remain overbought on a short and medium term basis.  A decline is due at any time.  We most likely will continue a bit higher in the next few days but caution is advised.  The summation index is heading higher and that is bullish.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was OK.  We've reached $28 here.  Gold was up a bit on the futures as was the US dollar.  Gold was lower early in the session but came back.  The XAU rose 1 3/4.  ABX up 1/2, GG gained 3/4 and NEM added 1/8.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  I did place an overnight order for the January GG calls but it was not filled.  There is now a bullish engulfing candlestick for the daily GG chart.  If we get some weakness on Thursday here I may still attempt this trade, however it may be too late.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  How long can this rally last?  Longer than I think perhaps.  But I must say some of the technicals are really over extended here and the bullishness is extreme by some accounts.  The stock indexes are overdue for some decline.  Gold is trying to hold the $1200 level and has succeeded so far.  Any gold share trade now has to be short term.  I'll check the charts here again with the day off tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on any overseas developments and be back at it on Thursday in the new year.  2013 is a year that I'd like to forget.  My trading account shed 30% and my win % was worse than that.  I'll start 2014 with a clean slate and try to get things right again.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 25 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I thought the main players would return this week but that is not the case.  We are still in holiday mode.  Perhaps things will change with the new year on Thursday.  Still technically overbought and staying that way.  I do expect some kind of push higher for the beginning of the new year.  After that, who knows?  GE gained a few cents on light volume.  No trades in mind here for now.  Gold fell $10 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket despite a weaker US dollar.  I would think that the year end selling would be over here but maybe I'm wrong again.  The XAU fell almost 2 points.  ABX off 1/3, while GG and NEM dropped 2/3.  Volume was almost average here despite fewer players.  I may try the January gold share calls tomorrow on weakness if we get any.  Oversold on the technicals but not all the way yet short term.  We also could be starting another leg down for gold and the gold shares as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is beginning to look like this week may be a light volume holiday affair as well.  It makes for tough trading.  I still think that we'll see plenty of cash flow into stocks the first couple of days for 2014.  I'm guessing that some of that money will go to the gold shares as well.  I could be wrong.  After such a lousy 2013 trading year, I'd like to start next year off in a positive fashion.  The game plan at the moment is to get some January gold share calls tomorrow and then sell them by the close on Friday.  I'll rethink this idea overnight.

Running in place today as the Dow lost a point or so on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  The summation index is still moving higher.  Only two days left for 2013.  The small stocks were under performers today but it is hard to read anything into a holiday biased session.  We certainly won't go up forever.  I think that we are closer to a top than most people think.  But I could be wrong and often am.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was up a buck on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower again.  The XAU rose a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional gains on light volume.  It looks like it may be too late to try the gold share call trade for January.  I'll have to see some pullback on Monday or Tuesday to attempt this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a great year for the stock indexes.  Everybody is expecting a nice pop to start the new year, myself included.  After that, who knows?  We are overbought both short and medium term.  Perhaps we will see some beginning of the year blow off top.  But the upside from here is limited in my opinion.  Some of my technical indicators are getting off the charts overbought and warning of some negative action to come.  At the very least some sideways activity.  So I really do not want to go chasing things on the upside here.  Gold is hanging in there above the $1200 level.  However this is such a light volume limited participation week, it is hard to say a bottom is being put in.  That said, it is possible that the precious metal is just about sold out for now.  That's a guess as usual.  I'm still interested in the gold share calls for the beginning of next year but I may go out to the February contract.  It is something to think about over the weekend.  Most of the major players should be returning to their desks next week as we close out the year and begin the trading for 2014.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow soared another 122 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Overbought and staying there.  The summation index continues to the upside.  There are no sellers in sight.  I'm not sure how far this can go but the volume is light and that is not a good sign despite it being a holiday week.  The advance/declines today do not support a plus 100 points upside move.  There remains no overhead resistance but this has the look of an upside blow off.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  The short term technicals and the medium term technicals are overbought for GE.  I'm probably not going to try the calls here for January.  Gold rose $9 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed on the session.  I'd still like to try the gold share calls for January if we drop a bit from here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday for many of the world markets today.  So the overall trading is skewed.  You can't argue with higher prices but some kind of rest is due for the stock indices.  If we continue to simply go up it won't end well.  Gold is holding the $1200 level for now.  Three days to go in the trading year.  I'd expect a lot more of the major players to return next week.  Sometimes it's a waiting game and patience is required.  Now seems to be one of those times.  We'll finish off the week tomorrow.

Still moving higher in a holiday shortened session as the Dow gained 63 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The Santa Claus rally is in full swing and even higher prices are probably coming.  There is nothing in sight to derail the rally at this time.  Overbought, staying there and that is the characteristic of bull markets.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was really light.  Might be too late to try the calls here now.  Gold gained back what it lost yesterday and the US dollar didn't do much.  The XAU rose 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all were up over 60 cents.  Volume was anemic.  Might be too late here as well for the calls since todays upside increased the option premiums.  The daily technicals also finally got moving to the upside for the gold shares.  But it is hard to read much into a holiday light volume move.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll take tomorrow off and see how things pan out when we open on Thursday.  Thursday is also a holiday for many people around the world.  I'd still like to try the gold shares from the long side at some point before the new year begins.  So we'll see what happens.  Happy Holidays everyone.

A nice start to the holiday week as the Dow gained 73 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The holiday rally is in full swing.  I don't know how high this market can go but the trend is up and there is nothing in the way.  We are short term overbought for the stock indices but can remain that way in an uptrend.  There will be an early close for the exchanges tomorrow.  GE was little changed and the volume was light.  I'm still considering the calls here for January.  Gold was off 6 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly weaker as well.  The XAU ended the day flat.  ABX, GG and NEM had little movement on light volume.  I'm still looking for the gold shares to pop at the beginning of the new year.  I'm considering the ABX or GG calls.  Looking to purchase them this Thursday or Friday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As expected the volume this week will be light and the trend will be for higher equity prices.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion.  Gold is going nowhere fast.  It is really a waiting game for most of this week.  Sometimes you just have to be patient.  I'd like to start the new year on the right track.  We'll see what happens going forward.

The Dow gained 42 points today on option expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading higher.  There is no overhead resistance.  Look for higher prices heading into the new year.  The Santa Claus rally lives on.  Look to buy calls before the start of 2014.  GE was up around 1/8 and the volume here continues to be heavy.  January calls are in order if we get some pullback.  Gold was up 10 bucks on the futures as it tries to stabilize.  The US dollar was a bit weaker on the session despite a higher GDP revision.  The XAU was flat.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  I'll be looking to try the gold share calls before the end of the year.  I think we'll see some money go into this group at the start of the new year.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Another great opportunity was missed this week with respect to the OEX calls.  But that has been the story of my trading year.  Too little, too late and terrible trading was the theme for me this year.  I'll try and get things right going forward.  I'm looking to get some calls before year end for the anticipated rally to begin 2014.  Gold remains unloved and it broke the $1200 level this week.  There is a chance that we could just keep going lower here.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish.  Next week should be a light volume, little movement affair.  Most of the major players will be off.  I may try and purchase some calls towards the end of the week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Digesting yesterdays huge gains as the Dow 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index has turned back to the upside.  Bur todays session was probably a preview of things to come in the near term.  Lackluster trading with no real direction.  I'd expect a drift higher in the days to come before the new year.  Options expiration tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  The January calls should work here but I'd wait for a pullback to purchase them.  Gold was off sharply today and not only broke support at $1220 but also closed below $1200.  The precious metal futures declined over $40.  The XAU however only fell 1 1/8.  These stocks could be pretty much sold out at this point.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on good volume.  I'm still considering some gold share calls for January or February.  Purchasing them after Christmas is the idea for now.  Or not at all depending on what happens between now and then.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm expecting somewhat higher prices tomorrow to close out the week.  The trend is up and getting some calls before the new year begins is the strategy for now.  I did notice some extreme volumes in the January GE calls yesterday but it did not equate with an increase in open interest.  Not exactly sure what the implications there are.  GE is very overbought on the medium term but it appears that there will be one more leg up in the following weeks.  The 27 or 28 strike price should work.  Gold looks like it is about to take out the years low at $1180.  The gold shares are already at this years low.  I might be able to play some bounces but that's about it.  I do not see any sustained rallies there until the fundamentals improve.  When that is, is anybodies guess.  Perhaps I'll just stick trading the OEX.  We'll see what the expiration does tomorrow.

The great taper has begun.  I mean the media loved the name Great Recession so let's call this the great taper.  The Fed has slowly begun to reign in the easy money policy but it was a token gesture to begin with.  At first the markets sold off but then came a huge reversal since most of easy money remains in place.  The Dow soared 292 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  Todays price action should move the summation index back to the upside.  We hit a new closing high for the Dow.  The small stocks are lagging just a bit here but that shouldn't be a problem.  The Santa Claus rally is in full swing.  Once again there is no overhead resistance and we'll just have to see how far we can go.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was pretty good.  A new closing high here as well.  Probably too late for the January calls now but we'll see.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar rose slightly.  Gold looks to be falling in the aftermarket.  Todays Fed announcement can't possibly be seen as a positive for gold.  We are still above the $1220 level for now.  The XAU fell a point after being higher before the Fed.  ABX and GG had slight fractional losses, while NEM was flat.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  If and when we get to an oversold level in the gold shares, I might try the calls.  But there is no hurry at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed announcement and the next leg up has begun.  Any weakness can be purchased in my opinion.  The holiday rally is in full swing.  I'd probably think that it is prudent to let next week pass before taking on any option positions.  The volume will most likely be pretty light.  I guess I'll be looking at the GE January calls if the opportunity presents itself.  Gold remains in the dumps.  Perhaps we'll get a final washout move down now.  Or maybe it will just be a slow grind to nowhere.  The fundamentals for gold remain negative in my mind.  Better trades from the long side will probably be found elsewhere.  The Fed is now out of the way.  It remains a time to be patient though as we need to get through the holiday trading of next week.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays big US rally and go from there.

Some weakness ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  I don't expect any changes from the Fed but who knows?  I could be wrong.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm still of the opinion that the Christmas rally will begin at any time now.  But anything goes if we get any surprises from Big Ben.  Technically we're more oversold than overbought for the short term.  Things will all get sorted out after tomorrow.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Still a wait and see attitude for me towards GE.  Gold fell $14 on the futures today.  The US dollar finished the session little changed again.  The XAU was off 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  It is a waiting game here as well.  As long as gold holds $1220 it should be OK.  If we break that level another decline would be in the works.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  3 days in the December option cycle and a Fed announcement tomorrow.  Whatever volatility we get should happen in the next 3 days.  Then it's holiday mode for a week or so.  So taking on any trades now has more risk than usual I think.  Plus there will be the time decay of a week of light trading.  I think that I'll be on the sidelines until after Christmas.  Gold looks like it is trying to form a base but there is no real buying interest that I can see except for ABX perhaps.  I'm trying to be patient here and have been so far.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some upside to start off the week as the Dow gained 129 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We were short term oversold on the stock indices so some positive price action was expected.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a holding pattern prior to the Fed on Wednesday.  There is a good chance that the decline is now over and we will head up to new highs on the major stock averages.  That's my guess for now.  The summation index has yet to turn back to the upside but another day like today and it will.  GE was up 1/8 or so on average volume.  No trades here for now but perhaps I'll try the January calls before the end of the month.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a little weaker on the session.  The XAU rose 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM slipped 1/8.  Volume was average.  ABX has shown good relative strength lately, probably due to a positive article in Barrons last week.  I'm still considering the January gold share calls.  I might try the GDX index this time.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm expecting the usual holiday rally to begin and today was probably the start.  The only thing that could change things is a very negative day tomorrow or a surprise from the Fed.  I do not expect the Fed to do anything different on Wednesday.  Gold had a positive start to the week but came off of the highs.  As long as $1220 holds for gold I'll continue to consider the gold share calls.  The timing as always is key.  Next week will be a holiday week and the major players will be out.  So any option purchases should probably be delayed for now until the end of December, barring a decent technical signal.  Perhaps I will heed my own advice for a change.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets overnight and take it from there.

We got very slight upside today as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We are trying to stabilize here in my opinion since we are at the 50 day moving averages in some of the stock indices.  Plus we are now short term oversold.  One week left in the December option cycle and it is possible that it is time to try the OEX calls.  The problem is the summation index that continues lower.  Of course the market will turn to move this indicator back up but picking when that happens is the key.  The summation index could just continue to head lower.  I'm guessing the Fed announcement on Wednesday will be the key.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Maybe the strength in GE is letting us know that the market is poised to move higher near term.  That's a guess as usual but it's something to think about over the weekend.  Gold was up about 10 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed at the end of the day.  The XAU only managed to gain 1/3.  ABX added 1/4 but GG and NEM finished almost unchanged.  The volume was light.  Not sure what to do here now.  The open interest in the GG January call that I was considering contracted quite a bit yesterday.  Whoever had put on such a large position took a lot of it off.  Putting on a gold share call trade here is something else to think about over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most of the stock indexes had a negative week.  Is this the beginning of a protracted decline?  Could be but this time of the year is usually positive.  If we don't rally from here soon the implications for next year would be bearish.  We are short term oversold though and I will consider some December OEX calls over the weekend.  Gold has held the $1220 level so far and has a potential double bottom on the weekly charts.  There remains little interest there though as we rallied early in the week and then gave it all right back.  Medium term oversold for the gold shares.  The short term technical picture there is mixed.  I'll be checking the charts here over the weekend.  Next week will probably be the last week of decent volume before the beginning of next year due to the upcoming holidays.  If I do decide on a trade it will have to be put on early in the week most likely.  So we'll see what happens.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 104 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The underlying market action was better than a 100 point loss day would imply.  The small stocks were acting better today and I would expect some upside tomorrow due to the short term oversold nature of the stock indices at the moment.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  Certain stock indexes are trying to hold their 50 day moving averages.  They have so far.  The late day weakness again doesn't spark confidence though.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average for lately.  I still don't have any trades in mind here for now.  Perhaps the January calls.  Gold got pounded today as the futures fell over $30 on a stronger US dollar.  The gold shares fared much better, only off a point.  That's bullish for the short term.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other after being lower early on.  Volume was light.  I'm back to considering the January gold share calls but probably not until next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold at this point.  That doesn't mean that it can't go lower but the odds favor some type of bounce there.  After that we could head on back down again but we'll have to see what kind of bounce we get.  A lot will be determined by the Fed next week.  Any surprises there could ramp up the volatility.  Gold had a bounce early in the week and has since given everything back.  That isn't a good sign.  We did hold the $1220 level but perhaps a test of $1200 is still in the works.  The gold shares are still holding their lows from last week so far as well.  The Fed should play a role in the movement for gold as well.  If they begin the tapering in December, conventional wisdom says that won't be positive for the price of gold.  We'll watch what transpires overnight and finish off the trading week tomorrow.

Some steam to the downside today as the Dow fell 129 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and that is what we will keep our eye on.  It has kept me defensive on the stock indices here and rightfully so.  But in this game that could all change tomorrow but I don't think that it will.  No real reasons for todays decline as we challenge the 50 day moving averages on some of the stock indexes.  The smaller stocks have been relatively weaker here and that is a negative.  GE was off 1/2 on better volume.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and another $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU dropped 3 points, giving up what it gained yesterday.  ABX and GG fell 1/2, while NEM lost 3/4.  Volume was light to average.  The price of gold held up pretty good today but not the gold shares.  If we do get more decline in the stock market, the gold shares will most likely follow.  I'm not sure if I'll try the GG January calls right now but it's something to ponder this evening.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Weakness prevails here so we'll have to see if the 50 day moving averages provide support.  Still no data to move things but perhaps downside momentum will take over.  Gold had a pause in the recent strength today.  We'll see if the weakness continues tomorrow.  As always we'll keep an eye on the foreign markets to see if they mirror the US action today. 

Just a downside drift today as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices are trying to make up their mind here.  But we could just see sideways price action for a while.  However the summation index is pointing lower.  I still think I'll take my cues from that and look for lower prices until that turns around.  Not much data to move prices around this week.  The short term technicals for some of the indices are back in the overbought zone.  GE was off a nickel and the volume remains tepid.  No trades for GE right here as it looks like the price could go either way.  Gold was the story of the day again in my mind as the futures gained $25.  The US dollar was slightly weaker.  There are no fundamental reasons for gold to rise here.  There is a potential double bottom in place on the weekly charts.  If the bottom is for real, the target would be $1600.  But that remains to be seen.  The XAU jumped 3 1/3.  ABX up 7/8, GG gained 3/4 and NEM added over 1/2.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My January GG call order was never filled and I canceled it.  Might be too late here but there is a chance that I'll still try this trade.  ABX has shown the best relative strength here so far.  I don't know if actual real interest is being shown for the gold shares.  It could simply be short covering.  However the specific option on GG that I was trying to trade had a huge expansion of open interest last week.  That should say something.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT is under performing here and that isn't a positive for the stock indexes.  More negative price action would not be a surprise in my opinion.  New price highs would.  8 days left in the December option cycle.  Gold is showing some signs of life but I don't know if it is for real or not.  That said, I'm still keeping a close eye on the GG call options.  I'm still a little gun shy after all of the losing trades over the past year.  We've also already moved up from the technically oversold condition of the gold shares as well.  So we'll see.  

Slight upside today as the Dow gained 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  Not much to report about todays session.  The summation index is still heading down.  I'm expecting weakness in the coming days and I am not looking for a break out to new highs yet.  The volume on the rally is light.  I do not trust light volume rallies.  GE was up another 1/4.  The volume was nothing special.  If GE is a proxy for the overall market then we should see higher overall prices moving forward.  That remains to be seen.  Gold was up $5 on the futures with a slightly weaker US dollar.  Gold continued to rally in the aftermarket.  There was a lot of chatter over the weekend about gold being sold out along with a possible double bottom being put in.  The XAU rose 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM were up over 1/2, while GG was flat.  Volume was light.  I did place another open order for the January GG calls.  We'll see if it gets filled this time around.  I'm thinking that we'll see more sideways price action for gold near term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much economic data to go on this week.  It could be a quiet time for the stock indexes.  That doesn't do much for trading options.  However sometimes you have to be patient.  The fundamentals for gold haven't changed, so I really don't see any big rally coming up anytime soon.  Perhaps the gold share call trade isn't the best idea for this time.  I'll reconsider it overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and take it from there.

A huge move back to the upside today as the Dow gained 198 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The employment report was better than expected and the stock indices took off.  We were short term oversold so some upside was due.  The only caveat is the light volume.  We'll see if we get any follow through next week.  The small stocks were relatively weaker today and that could mean something in the days ahead.  We've got the Fed in a couple of weeks and things could get dicey if there are indications that the easy money policy is going away.  I'm not really a believer in todays rally until the summation index turns back up.  GE was up 1/2 but the volume was pretty light.  Maybe this is the beginning of a nice move to the upside but without conviction I can't back that theory.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold was off $3 on the futures despite a good jobs number.  The US dollar didn't do much today.  Interesting market action on the release of an important employment report.  There was some volatility in gold but at the end of the session, not much changed.  The XAU had a slight loss.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was good for NEM, light for the others.  I did not place another order for the GG January calls.  Still oversold for the gold shares and I may try the calls next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So the jobs report is out of the way and we go from here.  All appears to be fine for the stock indexes and there isn't a lot of economic data due next week.  It looks like new highs are in the offing.  However I just don't feel like todays move up will last.  The short term oversold condition has been alleviated and we'll see where we go from here.  Gold had an interesting session today but there is still no love for the metal itself or the gold shares.  There is a chance that we are trying to put in a bottom at the $1220 level for gold but we could just as easily head down to $1200 as well.  I'm still considering the GG January calls but this could be the wrong idea as well.  However somebody has taken a huge position there for whatever reason.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend.  The next two weeks will see the majority of trading being completed for the year as the holidays will once again soon be upon us.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still heading lower as the Dow fell 68 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Overdue now for a bounce on the stock indices.  Perhaps the employment report will bring back the buyers.  Short term oversold on the stock market right now.  The data appeared stronger than expected.  Perhaps the market is pricing in the end of the easy money game.  The decline hasn't really been volatile to this point.  The summation index is heading lower and does imply lower values moving forward.  So even if we do see some upside tomorrow it may not be the beginning of another leg up.  We'll see.  GE was off about 20 cents and the volume was light.  I'm still going to be patient with regards to the January calls here.  Oversold on the short term here as well.  Gold dropped back $15 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  Negative price action despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU gave back the 2 points it gained yesterday.  ABX fell 1/4, while GG and NEM both lost 2/3.  Volume was light to average.  I canceled the open order for the January GG calls.  I'll watch tomorrows open and decide whether to put on the trade again.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares and that could be dangerous despite the fact that they've been decimated already this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I've called for a bounce since Tuesday and it hasn't happened.  Perhaps there is something happening under the surface but the decline so far has been muted.  We should get decent market movement tomorrow, one way or the other.  I'll take my cues from the summation index for now.  So a defensive posture is warranted for the near term.  Gold has moved both up and down this week instead of just down.  It will be interesting to see what transpires with gold tomorrow.  I might try the GG calls but I may just do nothing at all.  There really is no interest in owning gold in this environment.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

The expected upside today did not materialize as the Dow fell 25 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We were down over 100 during the session but made made a mid day comeback.  Perhaps we'll see some upside tomorrow.  The economic data was both positive and negative depending on the stat.  The summation index is trending lower now.  However the daily candlestick charts for the stock indices appear to have put in a hammer.  That may provide some short term support.  Not completely oversold technically yet on a daily basis.  GE had a pretty good reversal on the day and finished positive by a few cents.  We are short term oversold here and today may have been the place to get the January calls.  Time will tell on that.  Gold had a good session, up a bit over $25 on the futures.  Short covering in my opinion since the volume wasn't all that much.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU rose 2 1/8.  ABX up 1/8, while both GG and NEM gained 1/2 or so.  Volume was better than average for the gold shares.  My open order for the GG January calls wasn't filled and the premiums have moved up.  The open interest for the particular contract that I'm looking at went up ten fold overnight after yesterdays action.  Obviously somebody is interested in this trade.  If I get a chance in the next few days to buy the options at a reasonable price I'll do it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are still overdue for some type of decline or pause for the stock indexes.  I'm not sure if the past few days are just going to be it.  We should see some movement with Fridays jobs numbers.  At this point I'm guessing that they will be viewed as a positive.  We'll know in short order.  Gold has a nice move higher but it can only be viewed as a bounce unless we get some follow through upside.  We might be putting in a double bottom on the weekly charts but it is too early to know for sure.  The potential is there but the fundamentals for gold right now are still negative.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

Still lower today as the Dow fell 94 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We finished well off of the lows for the day.  Still not a major decline here and the summation index is moving sideways.  The short term technicals have rolled over for some of the indices.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow here.  After three negative sessions I'd expect tomorrow to be to the upside.  Lots of economic data on board for the next three days.  The VIX has spiked up but we really haven't seen any drastic price erosion.  Not sure what that implies.  GE was off a dime and the volume was average.  Might try the calls if the price reaches the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Not there yet.  Gold stabilized today at the $1220 level.  The US dollar was weaker on the session but gold did not respond.  The XAU was off a point.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was average for ABX and above average for the others.  I did place an overnight order for some January GG calls but it was not filled.  Despite the loss for GG today, the option premiums barely budged.  However the volume for the calls I wanted to purchase exploded.  It was 10 times the open interest.  I don't know if positions were being outright opened or the calls being written to collect the premium.  We'll see how much the open interest expands tomorrow.  I left the open order in overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expect a bounce tomorrow for the stock indexes.  That is the guess here.  After that, who knows?  The employment report on Friday should be a market mover.  The European markets got hit hard overnight.  We'll see if they follow through lower tomorrow.  I'm still waiting for gold to get to $1200 and we are almost there.  My open order for the January GG calls reflects this.  They are priced accordingly.  Let's not forget though that the fundamentals for gold right now are not positive.  Any longs should be trades only.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A down day to start the week and month off as the Dow fell 77 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  Todays action may turn the summation index back down again or produce a sideways chart pattern.  We fell apart in the final hour again and that isn't a positive.  However the volume is light and perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet.  Plenty of economic data from Wednesday through Friday capped off with the employment numbers.  We're overdue for some weakness but we've been that way for quite some time.  We will have to see if there is any follow through downside tomorrow.  GE was unchanged on the day and the volume was average.  I'm not in a hurry to get the January calls here but I'm keeping an eye on things.  Gold was one of the stories today as the futures fell almost 30 bucks on a stronger US dollar.  We are getting closer to the important support level at $1200.  The XAU shed 4 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost a buck or so on slightly better than average volume.  The fundamentals for gold remain horrible.  However the technicals are blown out to the downside and I am considering getting the January GG calls tomorrow.  Or at least placing in an order overnight.  Some of the longer term technicals for GG are in the spot where previously there has been some type of bounce.  I will check things out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks fell today as well so maybe we will finally see some sustained negative price action.  Hasn't happened yet though but all the pieces are in place.  But like I've said before, one day doesn't make a trend.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  Gold had a negative session and closed near its lows.  Ditto for the gold shares.  Perhaps this is an area I should just steer clear of.  Something to ponder tonight as I check the gold share charts.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays stock index and gold declines.  That should provide a clue for tomorrows open.
     

Holiday light trading in a shortened session as the Dow fell 10 points.  The advance/declines were positive.  We dropped off in the last half hour after being positive for the whole day.  You can't read anything into todays price action.  The volume is too anemic.  The small stocks were higher and that is bullish regardless.  The trend is up and there is nothing in the way to derail that.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Getting oversold on the daily technicals here and it might be time to start seriously looking at the January calls.  Gold was up 6 bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  Once again the dynamics here are that it was such a lightly attended session that there is nothing to read into the price action.  The XAU rose 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on extremely light volume.  December may be the time to try the calls again for the gold shares.  I'm thinking about it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Beginning of December coning up on Monday, with 3 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  The stock indexes remain overbought on both a short and medium term time period.  It's been that way since late October.  Perhaps we'll see some consolidation before the new year but who knows?  Momentum remains positive.  Gold looks like it is trying to hold on to the $1240 level but that doesn't mean that it will.  I think I'll wait for $1200 to be tested before I attempt another gold share call trade.  I'll check the charts out over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

More of the same today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The market is in holiday mode and prices should drift higher.  We still have a shortened Friday session to get through to finish out the week.  Overbought and staying there for the stock indices.  The small stocks are leading the way again.  Today should turn the summation index higher.  No end in sight for the rally.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Still no trade here yet for me.  Gold was off $3 as the US dollar had just a bit of strength.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on the day with light to average volume.  I'm still considering the January calls for GG or NEM.  However I will not attempt this trade until December, if at all.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report today.  The major players will be off for the rest of the week.  It's time to sit back and come up with a strategy for the rest of the year.  I'd expect prices to continue to trend higher barring some kind of surprise.  Gold continues in its downtrend.  It's probably best to wait for the $1200 level to try and get long there.  Enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday.

We were higher for most of the day before selling off right at the end.  The Dow finished basically unchanged for Tuesday.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  The summation index is tracking sideways at the moment.  The small stocks acted well today and that bodes well for the bulls in the future.  Tomorrow and Friday should be very lightly traded sessions and I do not expect a lot of price movement.  It is time to be patient.  GE was little changed but the volume was average.  Waiting for an oversold condition here.  Gold finished unchanged on the day for the futures but did bounce around.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU fell 1 7/8.  ABX off 1/8, GG off 2/3 and NEM dropped around 3/4.  Volume was light.  I had thought perhaps yesterday we had seen a possible reversal for the gold shares but no.  The selling there continues.  The gold shares are cheap but they can always get cheaper.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just waiting for this week to pass by really.  Sometimes you have to stay on the sidelines.  The rest of this holiday period is a good time to do that.  We'll see more action next week with the beginning of the month and the employment report.  Gold remains unloved and a negative asset for now.  The gold shares are approaching the lows for the year.  I'll probably try the January calls there sometime in December.  That is the idea for now.  Expect slow trading for the remainder of this holiday week.

We're in holiday mode as the Dow rose 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We were higher for much of the day but dropped off in the last hour.  Not much to report for the stock indices really.  The summation index is heading sideways again.  This week should be a light volume affair with little movement and an upside bias.  In theory at least.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  There is now a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts.  Perhaps there will be a chance to get the January calls.  Gold had an interesting session.  It was off $3 on the futures after being much lower.  It continued to rise in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit higher but finished well off of session highs.  The XAU was off 1/4 but finished well off of its lows.  A reversal perhaps?  ABX was flat on the day, while GG and NEM had slight fractional losses.  Volume was better than average for the gold shares.  I'm looking at the January calls here again but still think December might be a better time to try a trade here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I think the prudent trading strategy here will be to let this week pass and try to develop something for the weeks ahead.  We are still overbought on the stock indexes.  When that technical condition works itself off will be the time to try some calls again.  There's no rush.  Gold itself looks like it may be trying to put in a short term bottom here but that is a guess as usual.  I'd still wait until next week at least before doing something there.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and watch the action tomorrow.

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 closed above 1800 for the first time.  The small stocks are hitting new highs as well.  The momentum continues to the upside and with the easy Fed policy, there is no end in sight.  It will not end well, that's for sure.  But you just don't know how high we will go before it does end.  The summation index should be back to the upside after today.  Thanksgiving week is coming up and that is historically positive.  So sit back and enjoy the ride.  GE was up 1/8 or so on very light volume.  I'm still considering the January calls here if we see some weakness.  Gold held steady today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The trend for gold remains lower.  The XAU was off 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The weekly candlestick charts here now look bearish again.  We are approaching the lows for the year and will have to see if they hold.  Money is going everywhere except into gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect next week to be a light volume move higher for the stock indices.  It will be a holiday week for sure and holiday mode trading.  Still overbought on the stock indexes in whatever time frame you choose.  No overhead resistance and nothing to stop the party from going higher.  Gold is going nowhere to lower.  I'm still looking at $1200 as the next stop.  What happens there will be the key to direction going forward.  The overall fundamentals are still lousy for gold.  We could see a bounce from time to time though.  That's it for this week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today and that was not completely unexpected.  The Dow gained 109 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This could turn the summation index back to moving sideways.  We are still overbought and now staying there for the short term technicals.  Plus we have Thanksgiving week coming up which is usually positive.  All declines continue to be bought.  You cannot fight that.  The Dow closed above 16000 for the first time.  There is no overhead resistance.  As long as the Fed keeps the easy money policy in place, stocks will be where money goes.  This may change sometime next year.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  I might consider the January calls here at some point.  Beginning to work off the short term overbought technicals here.  Gold was off around $15 on the futures in a hangover from yesterday.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU fell a point but was off the lows of the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good to average volume.  Oversold, staying there and there aren't any compelling reasons to own gold at the moment.  I'd expect some more end of the year tax selling for the gold shares in the month to come.  Perhaps I'll try the calls again after that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every decline that we have seen since September has been shallow.  There remains plenty of easy money to go around.  Enjoy the ride.  There is no upside limit to how far this thing can go due to new highs with no resistance.  We have seen some crazy upside euphoric runs in the past.  I'm not saying that will be the case this time but the possibility exists in this market environment.  Gold looks to be heading down to the $1200 level.  Perhaps I'll get some gold share calls there.  These stocks are cheap but they can always get cheaper.  The fundamentals for gold just aren't there right now.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and close out the week tomorrow.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The stock indices dropped after the Fed minutes were announced.  But the decline isn't really aggressive and it looks like we could head back up at any moment.  Buyers are there for the dips.  We will have to see if that mentality changes.  The summation index is heading lower again.  The short term technicals have rolled over for the indices.  But it doesn't have the feel of a more extended decline coming up, despite the fact that we are overdue for one.  GE was little changed on the day and volume was lighter than lately.  I'll get some January calls here if we ever get oversold on a daily basis.  Gold fell again as the US dollar moved higher on the Fed minutes.  The precious metal futures dropped $15 in the regular session and that much again in the aftermarket.  The XAU lost 2 2/3.  ABX and GG were both off around 2/3, while NEM shed a buck.  Volume picked up to the downside and that is never a good sign.  No love for the gold shares and the stronger US dollar is no help for the gold bulls.  Mentally I'm not feeling 100%.  Another trip to the dentist today.  Successful trading requires your full attention.  There is no doubt about that.  The small stocks acted better than the overall market today so perhaps we'll see some positive action tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  The Dow has been put on a temporary hold at the 16000 level.  We are way past overdue for some kind of sustained decline for stocks.  Gold continues to head lower and it looks like it could head down to the $1200 level.  That would be the area to take a chance with the gold share calls again in my opinion.  So we'll see about that in the days to come.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight to see if they follow the US market lower.

Sloppy is the way that I'd describe todays market action as the Dow fell 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  This fact underscores the idea that things aren't as strong as the Dow appears to be here.  The small stocks are showing relative weakness and today the TRAN joined them.  We are due for some type of decline.  Todays market action should turn the summation index back down again.  The overall longer trend remains up.  However it could be time for a move back to the 50 day moving averages for the stock indices.  GE was off around 1/4 on average volume.  Due for some weakness here as well.  Overdue you might say.  Gold was up a buck on the futures, while the US dollar was little changed for the session.  The XAU was flat on the day as well.  ABX and NEM had slight fractional gains, while GG was basically unchanged.  Volume here was light.  I'm looking out to the January calls on the gold shares but in no hurry to do anything.  Gold itself remains in a funk.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get retail sales, the CPI and existing home sales numbers out tomorrow.  We'll see how the market reacts to the data.  Still due for some price weakness in my opinion.  The Dow is taking the lead lately and that isn't bullish.  The small stocks usually lead the way both up and down.  They have shown relative weakness lately.  Gold isn't going anywhere though it has remained oversold for over a week now on the daily charts.  I may be finished trading gold for this year anyway.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed market indeed, as the Dow gained 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks led the way lower.  The sell off was late in the session which doesn't bode well for tomorrow.  One day doesn't make a trend but this market has been way overdue for a pullback.  The McClellan oscillator did turn positive on Friday though.  The short term technicals remain overbought for the stock indices.  The Dow did reach 16000 for the first time today, so perhaps that was a nice round number to take some profits.  We'll see.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was good.  This stock probably needs a rest as well.  Overbought, staying there and that can't last forever.  Gold fell today as the precious metal futures were off $15.  The fundamentals here remain bearish.  The US dollar dropped just a bit.  The XAU lost 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  No trades in mind here for now.  Perhaps if gold gets back to the $1200 level I'll try the gold shares again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of economic data out on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.  That could get things moving again one way or the other.  I'd expect the major players to do their fair share of trading this week.  Next week is a holiday shortened affair with people taking time off.  Overdue for some selling for the stock indexes in my opinion.  But I've said that before.  The overall trend remains up.  Gold is still going nowhere fast.  The weekly candlestick chart did show some promise but not if we just head back down this week.  Not a good start to the week for the gold bulls today.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

Another day, another record as the Dow gained 86 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  Very overbought here on all levels but it doesn't seem to matter.  I'm not sure just how long this can go on but it's usually longer than you think.  The easy money policy continues to lift equity prices.  Until this policy ends, I suppose there is not telling how far we can go.  Don't fight the trend.  It is hard not to when all the technicals are blown out to the upside.  The technicals say get short but that strategy isn't working.  No overhead resistance and we are in a favorable seasonal period for stocks.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  Short term overbought here for a month and a half.  Hard to trade that condition.  Gold was little changed on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  No trades in mind for the gold shares at this time.  Still oversold here technically.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Expiration week came through with its usual positive bias.  I'd say we're due for a rest here but I've been saying that for a while.  Money is still finding a home in stocks.  All declines are still being bought.  I do not see any changes in the near future.  Gold may have put in a short term bottom on the weekly candlestick chart but we'll need to see next weeks price action to be sure.  Definitely oversold there.  The fundamentals however remain negative for gold at this time.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend in hopes of coming up with some ideas for the December option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More of the same today as the Dow gained 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Perhaps todays action will turn around the summation index.  The economic data out today was pretty much in line.  The next Fed chief spoke before Congress and the easy money policy doesn't appear to be going anywhere.  The stock indices are riding a wave of liquidity and cheap borrowing costs.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices going forward.  No resistance technically.  Enjoy the ride.  At some point the ride will end but it's anybodies guess when.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold saw some life on the easy money reminder.  The precious metal futures rose $17.  The US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU gained 2 1/4.  ABX did not join the rise in prices and finished flat on the day with good volume.  The stock dilution story here is still the main driver of price action.  GG up 1/2 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was average.  No trades in the gold shares here for me but the technicals are coming off of oversold readings.  However I've lost enough money trading gold from the long side this year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks are lagging the major averages here and that isn't exactly bullish.  The relative strength is currently with the big caps.  However as long as the buyers remain the trend is up.  We are overbought on all the medium term indicators for the stock indexes though.  Hasn't meant anything yet.  All pullbacks are being purchased.  Gold appears to be trying to make a stand at $1260.  Not sure if that will be successful.  Oversold both short and medium term here but that doesn't mean things will simply turn around.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  I thought that we were going to roll over here but the S&P 500 has hit a new high.  The positive expiration bias appears to be in place.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet but that may happen tomorrow.  The Fed liquidity trumps all I suppose.  No upside resistance for the major stock indices and the overall market is stronger than the Dow.  Money is easy and needs a place to go.  Stocks are the choice until further notice.  GE up up a touch but the volume was lighter than yesterday.  Still overbought on the short term technicals here and have been for weeks.  Gold was off a couple of bucks on the futures and came back a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had small fractional gains and the volume was light.  Still no real interest in the gold shares.  The story for gold remains that there is no story.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much higher can we go for the stock indexes?  I don't have any answers.  We should have seen some type of decent correction or sell off by now.  Hasn't happened.  The trend remains up and there is nothing in the way.  2 days to go in the November option cycle.  We'll see how high we get by the end of the week.  Some economic data to be released before the end of the week but it doesn't look market moving unless there is a big surprise.  Gold is a non event.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and go from there.

The Dow was off over 100 points during the session but made it back for a loss of 32 points on the session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the volume was light.  The small stocks were relatively stronger today.  However the summation index is still heading lower.  I think perhaps we should take our cues from there even though it is expiration week.  Unless we see some strong upside tomorrow my guess would now be that we are heading lower.  GE was flat once again on the day but the volume picked up.  No trades here for now.  Gold continues to drop, off $10 on the futures and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar finished flat on the session.  The XAU was off 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on better volume.  There is still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are trying to make up their mind here.  The technicals remain overbought and with the summation index heading lower, I think that we are going to roll over here.  Buyers did come in near the end of the day today, in the last couple of hours.  However I'm sticking with a short term bearish stance for now.  That could change if the summation index turns around.  Gold remains dead money or worse.  It looks like we're heading back to $1200 and we'll have to see if that holds.  Like I said yesterday, the fundamentals for gold are looking bad at the moment.  You can't fight that.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A semi-holiday in the US today as the Dow rose 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Not a lot of economic reports for option expiration week.  I'd expect a drift higher for now and perhaps that will turn the summation index back to the upside.  It is something to keep an eye on.  GE lost a nickel and the volume was very light.  The short term technicals remain overbought here.  Gold fell 3 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  the XAU was up 1/4 after being lower early.  ABX, GG and NEM basically finished the day flat.  Volume was light.  The short term technicals here are oversold.  I have no trades in mind for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to report on todays market action.  The banks were closed and the major players took a long weekend.  There is nothing of note to move the market this week.  It should be a slow grind upwards into the expiration but that's a guess as usual.  With only 4 days in the November cycle and no clear signal, I'll be on the sidelines.  Gold remains in a down trend and an unwanted asset for now.  The threat of higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar as the fundamentals doesn't bode well for the bullish cause.  We'll follow the overseas action tonight and go from there.

 The market exploded to the upside on a better than expected jobs report.  The Dow gained 168 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as you would expect with a 168 up move.  We basically gained back all of what we lost yesterday.  We will be looking for follow through on Monday.  It will be expiration week so the usual upside bias should be in effect.  I was looking for more of a decline than what we saw yesterday but the market speaks and we must listen.  I guess there is so much liquidity out there that it needs a place to go.  You cannot fight it.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was lighter than lately.  The daily chart now has a bullish engulfing pattern, which implies higher prices.  Gold dropped again today on a stronger US dollar.  The gold futures fell over $20 and cracked the $1300 level.  It was a negative week for gold.  The XAU actually gained 3/4 though.  Money needs a place to go.  There is no other reason for anybody to be purchasing gold stocks when the metal is breaking down.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains after selling off early in the session.  Volume was average.  The technicals for the gold shares are oversold here on a short term basis.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I was looking for a much longer and deeper decline than what we have had here.  But with todays market action there is a chance that we are already heading back up to new highs.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet though.  Maybe we'll hold things up for another week and then see some better selling.  That's a guess as usual.  The overall market was back in the lead today and that is bullish.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Gold remains dead in the water.  The gold shares did turn around today but I'm not sure if that means anything.  I'm reluctant to take on any kind of trade at the moment.  Confidence lost is not the way to get ahead in this or any other endeavor.  I'm still trying to regroup after the latest ABX trade fiasco.  It's been a tough trading year.  But for now it's Friday afternoon in the autumn and time for a break.

Moving to the downside today as the Dow fell 153 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  A decline is in order for now as we had the signs of one coming in recent days.  GDP was better than expected but the market was in the mood to fall.  We will have to see how long it lasts.  The small stocks had announced lower prices were on the way.  Support comes in at around 1700 on the S&P 500.  GE had a one day reversal to the downside.  It fell 1/4 on heavy volume.  Perhaps we will get a chance to try the calls on a pull back to $25.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold dropped as well as the US dollar had a good day despite being short term overbought.  The precious metal futures lost $11.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX off 1/8, GG dropped 3/4 and NEM shed 5/8.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  The short term technicals have turned back down for the gold shares.  I have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but the feeling here is that this is the start of some sort of decline.  I do not know how long it will last.  I will say that today a company called Twitter went public and it was all the rage of Wall Street.  It traded well above its offering price amidst plenty of hype.  This, for a company that is losing money and may not turn a profit until 2015.  This is the kind of market action you see at tops, not bottoms.  It is not quite the internet frenzy of around a decade ago but you get the idea.  We'll see if the employment report tomorrow can turn things around back to the upside.  Gold remains unloved and a non performing asset.  The gold shares have been laggards all year.  The recent upside in the US dollar does not bode well for these issues near term.  We saw the reaction to the GDP number today from the market.  We'll see what happens with the jobs numbers tomorrow.

The Dow led the way today as it rose 128 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The small stocks were lower again today.  Breadth hasn't been as good lately and the TRAN was down today as well.  It looks to me as if a decline is right around the corner.  The summation index though moving sideways, could turn down at any time.  We are due for a decline, the technicals are overbought and some big reports are due in the next 2 days.  We'll see what happens.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume was really good.  GE is not pointing to any market weakness if it is a precursor for coming events.  Gold gained $10 on the futures today as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU gained a point.  ABX was flat on the day, while GG and NEM rose around 1/2.  Volume was heavy for ABX.  I don't know why.  The upcoming dilution of the stock does not make it attractive.  It does look like the technicals for the gold shares are starting to turn up though.  Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected considering going to the dentist today.  You cannot discount the effect that outside influences have on your trading.  The game is difficult on its own.  You really have to be in a good frame of mind to get the best results.  Obviously some days are going to be better than others.  Knowing yourself and keeping yourself under control cannot be under estimated.  Considering my confidence level is pretty low here, attempting another trade before the November expiration probably isn't a good idea.  The Dow hit a new high today.  When the Dow is leading the way, it is getting late at the party.  I think a decline will start at any time now.  It also looks like gold has a chance to turn around here as well back to the upside.  But that is just a guess as usual.  The dollar just got short term overbought as well.  We'll see how the market reacts to the GDP report and go from there.

A mixed market today as the Dow fell 20 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The NASDAQ was slightly higher today but the S&P 500 was down.  The summation index is starting to trend sideways.  Although the trend for the stock indices remains up it is starting to appear as though things are getting tired.  Waiting on GDP and the employment numbers later in the week.  Some of the short term technicals have rolled over so some kind of a decline here would not be a surprise.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was off 6 bucks on the futures while the US dollar was up just a bit.  The XAU was lower by a point.  ABX and NEM were little changed, while GG lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  I'd expect some movement from gold and the gold shares when we get the reports due on Thursday and Friday.  I could make a case for either direction.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've been in rally mode for about a month on the stock indexes.  Earnings are just about done.  It looks like the macro picture will be moving things in the near future.  No noise out of Washington most likely until next year.  The Fed is on hold.  Technically we are due for a rest but as always, the market will go where it wants.  Gold remains unloved and the direction is down.  The weekly candlestick chart is bearish.  Ditto for the gold shares unless there is some huge rally this week.  That doesn't appear likely at this point.  8 days to go in the November option cycle.  I don't have any pending trades.  My confidence is at a low.  I don't see any decent set ups anyway.  It looks like that I will just sit back and try to regroup for the time being.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and see what tomorrow brings. 

An upward drift set the tone for Monday as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The small caps had better relative strength today and that is a plus.  The short term technicals had rolled over but they're now trying to turn back up.  Plenty of economic data to spark trading interest this week.  The trend for the stock indices remains up.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Remaining overbought here and that can't last forever.  I'd still like to get some calls here if we ever get a pull back.. Gold didn't do much today as the futures rose a buck or so.  The US dollar was slightly lower on the session.  The XAU bounced back 2 1/3.  ABX rose 1/3, GG up 3/4 and NEM was higher by 1 1/3.  Volume was good for ABX and NEM.  GG had light volume.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself today and that is a positive going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The rally in stocks continues and there is no overhead resistance.  Money needs a place to go and right now the stock market is where it's going.  There is no change in the easy money Fed policy for now.  You cannot fight the tape.  Momentum runs never end well but you certainly can't predict how far they will go.  Gold has had some brief rallies lately but the overall trend remains down to sideways.  We also just had the technical death cross on the weekly chart with the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Perhaps I won't be trading gold for a while.  I sure have lost quite a lot of money this year getting long the gold shares.  It ruins your confidence and without some type of positive atmosphere the trading gets really tough.  And it is not at all easy in the first place.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there. 

Heading back up to start the month of November as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Once again the big caps are leading the way.  This occurs usually at the end of a rally.  The small stocks are lagging now and that is not a positive.  It was a down week for the small stock and a flat one for the major averages.  Not to mention that the daily technicals for the stock indices have rolled over.  It's something to keep an eye on.  GE however, was up 3/8 on good volume and is saying that higher prices are still coming.  We never did see a pull back here in order to purchase some calls.  Gold fell again today as the US dollar had another good session and is in a short term rally.  The precious metal futures dropped $10.  The XAU fell 3 points as the short term technicals have rolled over here as well.  ABX lost 1 3/8, GG shed 1 1/8 and NEM down 1 1/4.  Volume was good with the exception of ABX.  The volume there was blown out to the downside exponentially due to yesterdays after hours announcement of the dilution of the stock.  I dumped my November ABX calls for a 70% loss.  At the close on Wednesday this position had a 200% gain before the earnings report.  Just another in a string of bad trades and bad decisions by me this year.  Gold looks to go lower now due to strength in the US dollar.  Can't fight that.  Mentally I'm doing as best I can after yet another losing trade.  It's been a horrible trading year for me and I may just put on the brakes for the remainder of 2013.  The stock indexes look to be taking a much needed break here near term.  The summation index is beginning to trend sideways.  There will be plenty of economic data out next week including Fridays employment report.  Much for the market to digest.  Gold and the gold shares just had a pretty bearish week.  The weekly candlestick charts do not look pretty for the bulls.  The reverse head and shoulders pattern for ABX on the weekly candlestick chart has been pushed back yet again.  The US dollar is holding its long term support at the 79 level yet again.  After this week, I don't see any rally anytime soon for gold.  I could be wrong but the charts say otherwise.  I'm going to have to put the losing ABX call trade on the books and try to move forward.  The mental capital involved is always the most important thing about the trade.  When confidence is lost, it's hard to get going in the right direction again.  Needless to say I've made a lot of mistakes this trading year.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We turned around in the last hour today as the Dow fell 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has turned lower today.  Just end of the month profit taking in my mind.  However the small stocks are leading the way lower here and the short term technicals have rolled over.  I still don't think that this is the beginning of a big move down.  The extreme overbought condition of the market is being worked off.  GE was off 1/4 on good volume.  If we ever get back down to the breakout price, I'll be looking at the calls.  Gold was off $25 on the futures as the US dollar had a very good day.  The XAU fell 4 points.  ABX dropped 1 1/8, GG lost 7/8 and NEM shed 3/4.  Volume was above average for ABX, average for the others.  I simply should have dumped the ABX calls in the morning but I didn't.  ABX was holding up well during the day but got clobbered near the nd, like the overall market.  My November ABX calls are still showing a profit.  However gold has now rolled over.  I have once again held onto a trade for too long.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Beginning of the month tomorrow.  I'd expect some money inflows.  Not much on the economic data front.  After the bell ABX announced a plan to offer 3 billion worth of common stock at $18.35 to pay off debt.  That will kill my ABX call trade.  The deal closes on November 14th which is a day before the November options expire.  Unforeseen announcements are just one of the risks in trading single equities.  But it works both ways.  If you owned the puts right now you are smiling.  It has been a horrible trading year for me but you've got to keep moving on.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Volatility returned today with the Fed.  The Dow fell 61 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Nothing new from the Fed but it was an excuse to take profits I'd imagine.  The economic data remains status quo.  No GDP report today as it is now delayed due to the government shutdown.  We hit a new intra-day high on the Dow today.  Perhaps this is the beginning of working off the extreme overbought condition of the stock indices.  Regardless, the trend is still up for stocks.  GE was up another 1/8 and the volume remains good.  I can't see any major market decline in the works with a strong showing in GE.  I could be wrong but probably not with regards to this theory.  Gold got bounced around on the Fed as well.  The yellow futures were up around $3 on the session but sold off $20 in the aftermarket before coming back a bit.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU sold off after the Fed as well but came back to end the day with a gain of 1 1/2.  Not exactly sure what to make of that action but it appears to be bullish.  ABX was up 3/4,  GG added 1/8and NEM rose 3/8.  Volume was pretty good for the gold shares, especially for ABX.  It looks like somebody knows something here about the earnings due tomorrow.  It looks like the same price action we saw with GE the day before its earnings announcement.  But we all know anything can happen in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks have begun to under perform recently and that is not a positive for the stock indexes.  No trend line damage for now.  Also one day doesn't mean it's a turnaround.  But it is something to keep an eye on.  Gold really had a whipsaw session today.  The recent stronger US dollar is not a positive sign for gold.  My November ABX call trade is back to showing a nice profit.  How this trade goes will most likely be determined by the earnings report tomorrow.  If todays price action is any indication, the report will be viewed as a positive.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to todays US market developments and go from there.

Higher and higher we climb.  The Dow gained 111 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The economic data reported today came in about where expected.  We'll get GDP and the Fed tomorrow.  Overbought, staying that way and I certainly don't know how long this can last.  The Dow will probably hit a new all time higher tomorrow.  The small stocks are not in the lead now and that means we should be near the end of this run that has been in effect since the second week of this month.  It is getting to be almost parabolic and that never ends well.  We'll enjoy it while it lasts.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average.  No trading ideas here at the moment.  Gold dropped around $7 on the futures as the US dollar showed a bit of strength today.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX off 1/2, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost 3/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares needed a breather and that is what we are seeing now.  My November ABX calls are still showing a profit but not as much as last week.  The earnings on Thursday will determine the outcome of this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I doubt that we will see any surprises out of the Fed tomorrow.  Perhaps we'll get some selling on the announcement due to the extreme overbought condition of the stock indexes.  But that's a guess as usual.  There's really nothing in the way of higher stock prices looking out into the future.  Gold is hanging around its 50 day moving average line.  A move above there would be a positive.  I'd like to see the gold shares bounce back tomorrow but that could be wishful thinking.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action and go from there.    

A Monday in waiting for the stock averages as the Dow fell a point on light to average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Working off the overbought condition here in my opinion.  Some economic data but no real market moving event.  The small stocks had relative under performance.  Plenty of economic data out tomorrow including retail sales and inflation.  Then it's on to the Fed for Wednesday.  We are over extended here and due for at least a pause.  GE was up about 1/4 on average volume.  Still consolidating the recent gains here.  Gold was flat on the session with a slightly higher US dollar.  The XAU added 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume.  Overbought for these issues as well.  Earnings due Thursday for ABX and NEM.  My November ABX calls are still showing decent gains.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The major stock indexes continue to seek new highs day after day.  At some point this will stop and we are probably pretty close to that point.  We'll have to see the markets reaction to the Fed on Wednesday and what type of tone that sets.  The dollar is due for some type of bounce I would think due to its oversold condition.  Gold may need a rest or consolidation near term as well.  The precious metal has continued higher on lighter volume.  I suppose I'll wait for the earnings for ABX on Thursday and then decide about exiting the ABX call trade.  A break above 21.50 on good volume would be a huge positive but anything can happen.  We'll see what transpires in the next couple of days leading up to the earnings announcement.  I'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

The rally continues as the Dow climbed another 61 points today.  The advance/declines were positive but the volume was light.  The bigger stocks led the way higher on the session.  There is nothing to suggest that the rally can't continue.  The summation index is moving higher.  I'd still like to see some consolidation before going up again but the market will do what it wants.  New all time highs are being made in the major indices and there is no overhead resistance.  We're overbought for the stock indices on a short and medium term basis.  This condition won't last forever.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Still waiting on a pull back to get some GE calls.  However this week may just have been a consolidation before moving higher.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU edged higher by 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had minimal fractional gains on average volume.  Still short term overbought for the gold shares.  It's been a nice couple of weeks for the gold bulls.  Plenty of potential market moving data out next week.  Probably the most important for myself will be the ABX earnings due on Halloween.  Definitely a trick or treat affair.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes continue to the upside with the easy money policy firmly in place.  There is a Fed meeting coming up next week and I don't see any changes taking place that would derail the stock buying binge.  Money needs a place to go.  There's plenty of economic data due out as well.  I'd expect more record highs to come.  Gold has been moving along with the overall market.  A weaker dollar has helped things along here in my opinion.  We are getting close to major dollar support at the 79 level though.  I'd expect that level to contain the dollars decline since we are short and medium term overbought on the greenback.  That may put a ceiling on golds advance for the near term.  Just a guess but it does have some technical reasons behind it.  The reverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly ABX candlestick chart is still in place.  If ABX can break the neckline at 21 with good volume, that pattern would be valid.  It measures out to $28 eventually.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is still there.  It's the last Friday afternoon in October and time for a break.

The Dow climbed 95 points today on once again good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The pick up in volume is interesting as we had seen lower than normal volume in the marketplace for months.  It makes me a believer in higher prices yet to come.  The summation index continues higher.  TRAN continues to be a strong performer as well.  The only caveat from today was that the Dow led things to the upside and that isn't always positive.  We also remain pretty overbought on a short term basis, so some sideways price action would be welcome.  GE bounced back 1/4 today but the volume was lighter.  Very overbought here as well.  Gold had a positive session.  The precious metal futures were up $16.  The US dollar was off just a bit.  The XAU rose 3 2/3, hovering around the 50 day moving average.  ABX up 2/3, GG rose a buck and NEM added 1/3.  Volume was good, especially for NEM.  The price action for NEM here isn't as positive as the other 2 and I don't know why.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Gold has had a nice couple of weeks so far but we'll have to see if it can build on that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything looks OK for higher prices moving forward.  Overbought and staying that way.  This condition can last a while as it has before.  You can't fight the trend and the trend is up.  Gold and the gold shares have picked up the past 2 weeks.  GG reported earnings today and it was viewed as positive.  Perhaps we'll get similar results from ABX and NEM next week.  Time will tell on that.  My November ABX calls are still solidly in the black for now.  We'll keep an eye on overnight developments and close out the week tomorrow.

Slight downside movement today as the Dow fell 54 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  A pause was certainly due for the stock indices.  We'll have to see if it develops into something more but I doubt that for now.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  More backing and filling is the prediction here.  The trend remains up despite the short term overbought condition.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  If we make it back to roughly the $25 level, I'll be looking at the calls there.  Gold was off 8 bucks on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average and that is not unexpected.  Some sideways consolidation would be healthy for a continued move higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/2.  ABX and GG were off around 1/2, while NEM dropped over 1 1/8.  The gold shares were technically expected to head back to the down trend line that was just broken.  However the fall in NEM is worrisome for the bullish cause.  The volume was lighter today on the drop.  It will be something to keep an eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought for the stock indexes.  Plenty of economic data due in the next 2 days.  I'd expect some more sideways activity but you never know.  We still need to digest the recent run up.  Gold will probably move sideways for a couple of days or so as well.  The gold shares were a bit weaker compared to gold today and that isn't a positive.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see the reaction to the data tomorrow. 

The song remains the same as the Dow gained 75 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The employment data was weak but that just means more easy money from the Fed.  The liquidity flow lives on.  The summation index is heading higher.  The major stock indices continue to hit new all time highs.  There is no overhead resistance.  Both short and medium term overbought at this point.  Seems like there is nothing out there to derail this freight train higher.  We'll see how long it can go on.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Short term overbought here as well and probably time for a breather.  Any move back to the $25 level can be an entry point for calls in my opinion.  Gold had a nice move higher on a weaker US dollar and weaker jobs number.  The precious metal futures rose about $25.  The XAU gained 4 points and is back to the 50 day moving average.  ABX and NEM almost gained a buck, while GG added 1 1/4.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  ABX broke above the declining tops line from late August and that is a positive moving forward.  My November ABX calls are now solidly in the black.  Short term oversold now for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect some type of sideways price action for the stock indexes at this point.  Perhaps some backing and filling before moving higher.  We will not stay overbought forever.  It seems like everything is going right for the stock market and that could be dangerous.  But there is nothing out there at the moment to end the upside party.  Gold is also back to its 50 day moving average as well.  I expect some hesitation here as well.  The US dollar is getting close to its longer term support at the 79 level.  I would expect that level to contain prices near term.  However if it doesn't that would certainly be bullish for gold.  We'll have to see how things play out here.  The gold shares have been acting better lately.  But the weekly chart for gold itself is about to form the death cross of the 50 week moving average breaking down through the 200 day moving average.  So I'm not exactly certain is will be clear sailing for the gold complex.  We'll watch the developments overnight and go from there.   

Digesting the recent gains or simply marking time until tomorrows employment numbers.  The Dow lost 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market is still performing better than the Dow but by not such a wide margin as before.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought for the stock indices.  Money however needs a place to go.  The trend remains up for the stock market.  GE was up over 1/2 today on heavy volume for a nice follow through to the breakout on Friday.  GE is telling us that the market has no worries for now.  If we do get a pull back in GE, it will be an opportunity to buy some calls there in my opinion.  I'm not sure that will happen though.  Gold didn't move much today and neither did the US dollar.  Waiting for the employment data perhaps.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 though.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 or so.  The volume was pretty light here which isn't a positive.  At least price is moving in the desired direction.  My November ABX calls are in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Not sure what to expect with the employment report and the data is relatively old.  It could be perceived as stale numbers and perhaps will be not as market moving as usual.  That's a guess and the important thing as always will be the market reaction to the numbers.  We're short term overbought on the stock indexes and have been.  A move lower would not be a surprise.  Gold broke a daily down trend line last week and now we've had 2 days of slight movement with little volume.  ABX is getting close to its daily down trend line since late August as well.  A move through there with decent volume would be a positive.  The weekly candlestick chart for ABX still shows a potential head and shoulders bottom.  We would have to somehow break through the $21 level on good volume for that pattern to be valid.  We'll watch the overseas market overnight and go from there.

More of the same as the Dow gained 28 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  New all time highs for many of the major stock indices.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market today was once again much stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  This implies even higher prices moving forward.  The Washington BS is done for now but will return at the beginning of next year.  Earnings are coming out and look better for some than the lowered forecasts.  Money needs somewhere to go and it is going into stocks.  The Fed continues the easy money play.  It will eventually end badly but that is not on the radar screen anytime soon.  Technically remaining short term overbought for the stock indices.  GE had a big up day on the earnings, gaining 7/8 on very heavy volume.  A nice breakout above the previous resistance.  If and when we fall back to the resistance in the coming weeks, it will be an opportunity to try the calls here.  Gold fell $8 on the futures after yesterdays huge run up.  No upside follow through here.  The US dollar ended the session pretty much where it started.  The XAU was off 1/2.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had slight fractional losses.  Volume was pretty light here and that is a good sign when prices are lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much higher can we go here is the question considering the very overbought condition of the stock indexes.  No doubt due for a breather.  We are going to get plenty of old economic data next week including the employment report on Tuesday.  Not sure what kind of effect the old news will have on things but regardless, the trend is up.  Gold finally had a positive week and I would like to see that continue for my November ABX calls to have a chance at being profitable.  Earnings for ABX due out on the 31st.  I'll probably hold on for that unless we see some strong upside ahead of it.  Not overbought yet for the gold shares.  Of course we could simply resume the sideways to lower trend here as well.  However gold itself did break a downtrend line on good volume this week.  That should be bullish moving ahead.  We'll see.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.