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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Back to the upside today and that was not completely unexpected.  The Dow gained 109 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This could turn the summation index back to moving sideways.  We are still overbought and now staying there for the short term technicals.  Plus we have Thanksgiving week coming up which is usually positive.  All declines continue to be bought.  You cannot fight that.  The Dow closed above 16000 for the first time.  There is no overhead resistance.  As long as the Fed keeps the easy money policy in place, stocks will be where money goes.  This may change sometime next year.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light.  I might consider the January calls here at some point.  Beginning to work off the short term overbought technicals here.  Gold was off around $15 on the futures in a hangover from yesterday.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU fell a point but was off the lows of the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good to average volume.  Oversold, staying there and there aren't any compelling reasons to own gold at the moment.  I'd expect some more end of the year tax selling for the gold shares in the month to come.  Perhaps I'll try the calls again after that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every decline that we have seen since September has been shallow.  There remains plenty of easy money to go around.  Enjoy the ride.  There is no upside limit to how far this thing can go due to new highs with no resistance.  We have seen some crazy upside euphoric runs in the past.  I'm not saying that will be the case this time but the possibility exists in this market environment.  Gold looks to be heading down to the $1200 level.  Perhaps I'll get some gold share calls there.  These stocks are cheap but they can always get cheaper.  The fundamentals for gold just aren't there right now.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and close out the week tomorrow.

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