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Friday, November 01, 2013

Heading back up to start the month of November as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Once again the big caps are leading the way.  This occurs usually at the end of a rally.  The small stocks are lagging now and that is not a positive.  It was a down week for the small stock and a flat one for the major averages.  Not to mention that the daily technicals for the stock indices have rolled over.  It's something to keep an eye on.  GE however, was up 3/8 on good volume and is saying that higher prices are still coming.  We never did see a pull back here in order to purchase some calls.  Gold fell again today as the US dollar had another good session and is in a short term rally.  The precious metal futures dropped $10.  The XAU fell 3 points as the short term technicals have rolled over here as well.  ABX lost 1 3/8, GG shed 1 1/8 and NEM down 1 1/4.  Volume was good with the exception of ABX.  The volume there was blown out to the downside exponentially due to yesterdays after hours announcement of the dilution of the stock.  I dumped my November ABX calls for a 70% loss.  At the close on Wednesday this position had a 200% gain before the earnings report.  Just another in a string of bad trades and bad decisions by me this year.  Gold looks to go lower now due to strength in the US dollar.  Can't fight that.  Mentally I'm doing as best I can after yet another losing trade.  It's been a horrible trading year for me and I may just put on the brakes for the remainder of 2013.  The stock indexes look to be taking a much needed break here near term.  The summation index is beginning to trend sideways.  There will be plenty of economic data out next week including Fridays employment report.  Much for the market to digest.  Gold and the gold shares just had a pretty bearish week.  The weekly candlestick charts do not look pretty for the bulls.  The reverse head and shoulders pattern for ABX on the weekly candlestick chart has been pushed back yet again.  The US dollar is holding its long term support at the 79 level yet again.  After this week, I don't see any rally anytime soon for gold.  I could be wrong but the charts say otherwise.  I'm going to have to put the losing ABX call trade on the books and try to move forward.  The mental capital involved is always the most important thing about the trade.  When confidence is lost, it's hard to get going in the right direction again.  Needless to say I've made a lot of mistakes this trading year.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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