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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The Dow got clobbered today, down 198 points. The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 negative. I am not getting a good read on the volume. Oversold here now but that may not matter. The OEX puts were and are the way to go. It doesn't matter if we get the US debt crisis bounce and I hope that we do. That will be the entry point for the puts. The 10 day trin was way overbought and the CBOE call/put ratio was the highest it's been in a while. We are going lower. GE lost about 1/2 on good volume. It was the canary in the coal mine. No trades there still for me. Gold lost a couple bucks and has really held up rather well. The US dollar had a good day in the flight to safety. However the XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX fell 1 1/4, GG dropped 2 1/8 and NEM lost a buck. I bought some GG August calls today and that looks like a mistake. The earnings come out after the close today and that was the risk that I took. The options are already down about 15% from where I purchased them. I should probably just dump them one way or the other tomorrow. We'll see. If the earnings are decent, I'd expect some type of bounce tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Really not happy about not owning any OEX puts here because that was the trade that I've been waiting for. Summation index is now gapping lower so you know where the trend is headed. I'll hope for a bounce and go from there. As for the GG trade, I was not going to try the gold share calls but when we were down this morning the option premiums got cheap so I gave it a shot. Plenty of time left on the August calls but I don't think this is something to hold on to. Unless we really shoot higher on good volume tomorrow. Remains to be seen. So we'll see the reaction to the earnings and go from there.

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