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Friday, June 17, 2011

It was a mixed market today as the Dow closed higher by 43 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was good. The NASDAQ was lower. Summation index still heading lower. We got through the expiration and the question now is where do we go from here? I certainly don't have any answers. The stock indices are trying to hold the line here. If they do, I think the most you can expect is a weak bounce back to resistance. If they don't hold up here, I think we'll be heading a lot lower. Next week will be important for sure. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Still holding at the 200 day moving average. Gold was up $10 and the XAU gained 2/3. The dollar took a hit today and I believe that we are right at the weekly resistance downtrend line. If that line holds, then the dollar should weaken and that would be a positive for gold. If it doesn't hold, the opposite is true. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. I'm looking at the ABX July 45 calls. They had heavy volume this week and the open interest expanded. Somebody is interested in them. I'm going to have to take a closer look over the weekend. Oversold both short and longer term on the gold shares. But if the market falls apart, everything will flounder. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. Even if we get some type of rally here the overall trend has changed to down. It is also possible that we simply get a listless, drifting market of sideways action as well. I don't think we will be getting a rip roaring rally. But I've been wrong before of course. The focus lately has been on Greece, Europe and all of their problems. We've been down this road before. The technicals here are blown out to the oversold side. The trouble is that when that happens we at least see some type of sustained upside movement. Hasn't happened. Which means that it is possible that we simply fall apart here. I'm thinking that perhaps that may be postponed until later this summer. I don't know. Lots to ponder over the weekend as we roll into the July option cycle. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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