We started the week and ended the month with a nice breakout to the upside as the Dow gained 128 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The declining tops line from the beginning of May on the S&P 500 has been broken on decent volume. The summation index is heading higher. The trend is up for now. I certainly don't feel any better about not getting the OEX calls last week. But pullbacks can be bought and we still have 2 1/2 weeks on the June options. GE only managed a 20 cent gain today but the volume was good. I still don't have any trades in mind there. Gold lost $3 on the futures but the XAU rose 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume, following the overall indices. Overbought here now and I have no trades in mind here at the moment. The dollar was lower again today and whatever uptrend we had there is gone. Mentally I'm doing OK but was at the dentist today and that took away my concentration for a while. I'll look to get some OEX calls on a snap back to the trend line that was just broken to the upside. Employment report due on Friday and that should be the next market mover.

An upwards drift as the Dow gained 38 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around suggesting that the path of least resistance is higher. We have made it back to the declining tops line on a daily basis that began at the start of the month. If we can get through there perhaps the rally has legs. End of the month when things get going again on Tuesday. GE was flat on light volume. The weekly Bollinger bands have tightened up which could be a precursor of a decent move one way or the other. Not sure what to do there so I'll simply wait it out. The daily chart is oversold though. I'll check things out this weekend. Gold continued higher as the dollar took a good hit today. The precious metal was up $13 today. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG was basically flat. Volume was light here once again. Short term overbought now on these issues. However the weekly dollar chart now looks bearish as the recent gains have quickly reversed. That should be supportive for gold. I will also say that the Gold/XAU ratio is still on a buy signal even with the recent strength in gold and the gold shares. So perhaps the June gold share calls are still in order. It's something to consider over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Although I'm feeling that I should have gotten some OEX calls this past week. Perhaps I'll try that trade coming up. The thing that bothers me here is the volume. It has been very light for both the overall market and the gold shares. That isn't bullish. However the small stocks have shown good relative strength here leading the way higher and that is bullish. Plus the summation index will turn up with today action. So we have some crosscurrents. Plenty to ponder over the next 3 days. But for now it's Friday afternoon before an extended holiday weekend. Time for a rest.

Another day of drift in my opinion as the Dow gained 8 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive as the overall market was much stronger than the Dow. We were higher but got the usual late day fade that has been occurring lately. GDP came and went. There wasn't much news or data to consider really. No conviction for the stock indices here. I'm thinking of changing my leaning to the plus side due to the oversold condition of the market. But I'm not thoroughly convinced yet. GE was up about 1/4 on light volume. Nothing doing there trading wise. Gold dropped $4 and the XAU gained 3/8. The dollar was weaker today and it did not help gold. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. Mildly overbought on these issues now. No trades in mind here before the long weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. When the market drifts with no clear trend, as it is doing now, it makes for tough options trading. Even tougher than it normally is. I'd expect tomorrow to be a light volume stagnant affair ahead of the holiday weekend. I don't plan on any trades tomorrow. Todays action might turn the summation index back to positive. We'll see. I'm on the sidelines until further notice.

We got an attempt at a bounce today as the Dow rose 38 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up about 80 points until the last hour. We're still oversold here. The question is was this all the market could do or is it the beginning of a multi-day rally? Answers to follow. The summation index is still heading down and I'll still take my cues from that. GE gained 1/8 on light volume. Nothing new to report there. Gold was up $3 and the US dollar was flat on the session. The XAU rose 2 1/2. We are finally getting some out performance on the gold shares vs. the precious metal. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume. We've moved to short term overbought for these issues. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the ABX calls next instead of GG. We'll see. No volume here or with the overall stock indices and that is not a positive in my mind. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. 1st Quarter GDP revision out tomorrow and it could provide some movement. But it still feels as though we are just hanging around here. Going into a long holiday weekend coming up as well. I'll try and remain patient as there is really no other choice at the moment.

The Dow tried to gain ground today but ended the day with a loss of 25 points. Advance/declines were even and the volume was the usual light. The stock indices are oversold here and a bounce is expected again. No news to speak of today. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. We've broken down on GE and I expect the overall market to follow. We'll see. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all rose around a buck. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for GG June calls. GG has moved off of its oversold condition with todays action. It looks like another missed trade here. The price of the GG options haven't moved that much though. The dollar was weaker today and for once gold was in tandem. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices are oversold. The summation index is heading lower. We have tops beneath tops and lower lows. I could try and play the bounce here but the trend is down. With the dollar and gold holding up well here, I think more downside is expected. Although we might see some upside near term for the stock indices, I don't think any sustainable rallies are imminent. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We started the week off to the downside as the Dow lost 130 points on the current worries about Europe. Volume was light once again. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is pointing down, implying lower prices. I would expect a bounce again, since we are getting oversold once again. But we have been seeing lower highs and lower lows lately. That isn't bullish. GE lost 1/4 on light volume and broke to the downside from its consolidation. So I feel the signs are changing for the stock indices. Gold held up rather well with a gain of $6. The XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional gains and losses on light volume. The dollar had a good day today and gold rallied a bit as well. It does look like the flight to safety trade is making a comeback. I placed an open order again for the GG June calls. I'm not as sure about this trade as I was last week but we'll have to see what happens. I may also be late for this as there was plenty of volume in the GG calls today. But that's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So where do we go from here? It's looking like lower prices although maybe not in a straight line down. The dollar rally won't help the stock indices to move up. Perhaps a defensive stance would be the best idea going forward. We'll see what happens with the GG trade attempt.

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow opened lower, almost came all the way back and then closed back down again for a loss of 93 points. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. We've been muddling around here for the past few weeks with no real conviction in the stock indices. A case could be made for either direction really. The summation index continues lower and I'm taking my cue from that. Volume has been pretty low lately as well. We need some interest to move the stock indices higher and I haven't seen any of that lately. GE dropped 1/3 on average volume. The weekly chart here looks bearish and it could be a harbinger of things to come for the indices. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 on worries in Europe. This despite a good rise in the dollar. It looks as though the flight to safety trade may be coming back. The XAU only managed a gain of 3/4. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG had a fractional gain. Volume picked up a bit. I canceled my open order for the GG June calls. I will try again next week if I decide to continue in that direction. However once again today a decent rise in the precious metal itself did not carry over to the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio is still a screaming buy but it has been for a few weeks. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Moving to the June option cycle now with the usual 4 weeks minus a day for a holiday. I do believe that I'll be trying a trade in that time frame. Tough call as to where we go from here but that's always the case. I'm still favoring the gold share calls here though. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 45 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It seems like we are drifting here, as the volume is very light and there seems to be no conviction. Option expiration tomorrow. GE was up 20 cents on light volume. We are back to the 50 day moving average there. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other again. Volume light here as well. The dollar was off 1/3 but it didn't help gold or the gold shares. I still have an open order in for the June GG calls. Trying to move off of an oversold condition for the gold shares. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to say here. We'll get through Friday and look forward to the weekend.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 80 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We will find out soon if this is an actual trading bottom or just a bounce. A case can be made either way I suppose. The summation index is still heading lower but we will have to see what todays action says. No OEX trades in mind with just a couple of days left for this months option cycle. GE gained back what it lost yesterday. Volume was average. Still in a trading range there. Gold gained $15 on the futures. The XAU gained 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The US dollar was flat. I'm leaving in the open order for the GG June calls. Not close to getting filled as of yet. I'm still a believer in this trade for now. The gold shares remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report today. A simple waiting game is what it is now. We'll see if GG pulls back a bit more to fill the open option order and take it from there. That may or may not happen.

The Dow was lower from the start and ended the day down 68 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down about 170 points this morning. The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and that might lead to a bounce tomorrow. The summation index is heading lower and we will use that as our proxy for what to expect in the near future. Lower prices. We may get a snap back to the uptrend line the was recently violated. We'll see. GE lost a bit of ground again and looks like it wants to break the trading range to the downside. Volume was average. Gold lost $10 today but the XAU gained a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. The dollar was a bit lower today. We could be at the turning point for the gold shares here. Oversold and the technicals are at the bottom of their channels. Perhaps the gold shares will now take the lead over the price of the precious metal. I'm leaving in the open order for the June GG calls. But I don't think that there is any rush here. If the overall stock indices drop, the gold shares will most likely fall or move sideways. My thinking is that the June gold share calls will be my next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow could be an interesting day as todays action portends some upside. However the market seems to have no real direction at the moment. When in doubt, stay out is one market rule. 3 days to go in the May option cycle. I'll leave in the GG option ticket for June and we'll see what happens.

We started the week off with a thud as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The summation index has rolled over. We are oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question. However we have broken the daily uptrend line from March on the S%P 500. I believe the trend is changing to the downside here. We'll see. GE was down a bit on light volume. We are at the lower end of the recent trading range in GE. A breakout to the downside would confirm the down trend in the stock indices in my view. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. The gold shares were higher early. The dollar was lower today. The gold shares held up better than the stock market today. I did place an order for some GG June calls. I am leaving the order good until canceled. The price I am looking for is at least half of what they are trading for today. We are oversold on the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio is still very much in the buy zone. If there is weakness in the overall stock market, it should carry over to the gold shares. If I can get the price I want for these options, I'm willing to take the risk. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 4 days left in the May option cycle. I do not anticipate any short term trades this week. That could change of course. I'd expect some follow through to the downside in the stock indices tomorrow.

There was a problem with the blog site yesterday. Therefore there is no entry for Thursday. Let me give you a quick recap. The Dow gained 65 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. GE was flat on light volume. Gold gained $5, while the XAU lost 1/2. The US dollar was down a bit. I thought about getting some OEX calls but did not. I did put in an order and it wasn't filled. The uptrend line in the S&P 500 from March is still intact. No clear signal here but we are getting oversold. I would like to try the OEX calls but time is running out and the risk increases with each passing day. Let's move on to today.

The Dow closed out the week with a loss of 100 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. It wasn't much of a week for the stock indices one way or the other. We are about to break the uptrend line on a daily basis in the S&P 500 that has been in effect sine March. The market would have to turn around strongly on Monday to negate that. We'll see. I did want the OEX calls yesterday but after today I'm not so sure. GE lost 1/4 on about average volume. Still in a sideways channel here but on the lower end. No trades here. Gold lost $13 on the futures. It came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. Oversold here and staying that way. I would like to try the gold share calls for June. That could be the next trade at this point. The US dollar continued higher today and finished above its 50 day moving average. The question is how long does the US dollar rally last? That is one of the questions which will definitely affect gold. The Gold/XAU ratio continues to be saying buy gold here. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. There will be a lot to think about over the weekend. However there are only 5 days left in the May option cycle and the short term trades are not my strong suit. Lately, nothing has been. The stock indices look like they could go either way here. The summation index has probably turned back down after today. Gold is oversold and staying there. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. For now though, it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 130 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Almost the exact opposite market action from yesterday. We are right at a daily uptrend line that began in March. Not exactly sure what is going on here. If I had any guts I would try the OEX May calls on weakness tomorrow in anticipation of the uptrend line holding. We'll see. Again, we're not overbought or oversold here. I'll mull it over tonight and make my decision. GE lost about 1/4 on light volume. Still no trades in mind there. Gold was off $15 and the XAU fell 8 1/2. The drop in the gold shares has been relentless. ABX down 2 1/8, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM down 1 1/4. Volume was good. The US dollar had another good day and has had quite a rally in the past 5 trading sessions. I'm still considering the June gold share calls but not yet. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is off the charts and hasn't worked this time. That is letting you know that something is up. What exactly I do not know. And that's part of the problem of trying any kind of trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So the question is now what to do tomorrow about an OEX trade. I'll check the charts again overnight. 7 days to go on the May option cycle.

Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back to the upside. I'm still looking for higher prices here the only fly in the ointment would be the volume so far. It has been anemic. Still, it is looking like last weeks sell off is done. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Still basically moving sideways here, no trades in mind. Gold was up $13 on the futures today but the XAU fell 7/8. ABX and NEM were both flat. GG lost 1/2. Volume was light here as well. I'm going to wait a couple of weeks here before trying the gold share calls again. That is the game plan at the moment. The Gold/XAU ratio is still at a screaming buy. Did not work when I tried it though. The dollar lost a bit today. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The OEX calls have moved up a bit since last week but not as much as expected. We are still in an area of being not overbought or oversold. I am leaning towards higher prices for the stock indices into early next week. If we do see some weakness in the next couple of days, I am not sure if I'll try the calls or not. Stay tuned.

A quiet Monday as the Dow gained 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 12 positive. Perhaps this will turn the summation index positive again. I placed an order for some OEX May calls overnight but it wasn't filled. I will possibly attempt this trade again if we get some weakness. GE was flat on light volume. No trades there for the foreseeable future. Gold was up $11 on the futures and that much again in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX gained 7/8, GG added 1 1/3, while NEM tacked on a point. Volume was light. This is an attempt at a bounce in my opinion. This is the bounce that I mistimed last week in the losing ABX trade. Even though ABX rose today, it did not help the calls that I had. I actually did the right thing when dumping them at the close on Friday. Unless we get some sort of rip roaring gold rally from here. I don't expect that to happen. The US dollar was weaker today. I will need to see gold and the gold shares build a base of some sorts here before trying the calls again. Perhaps for June. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days left in the May option cycle. We are not overbought or oversold here on the stock indices. That makes a trade here trickier than usual. My idea at the moment is to buy weakness. We'll see.

It was an interesting day as the employment report came out stronger than anticipated and the Dow rallied big early. We were up around 175 points in the morning but the market faded and we ended with a gain of 54 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. Even with todays action we are still short term oversold. Perhaps I will give the OEX calls a try next week. But that isn't a given. GE was up a dime on light volume. Still in a trading range there. Gold gained $10 on the futures in a weak bounce. The XAU was up 5/8. The gold shares also rallied good early but then lost all of their gains. ABX was flat, GG up 1/4, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. I dumped the ABX May calls for a 50% loss. I should have sold them early in the morning. I wasn't mentally ready to do what had to be done. It was a tough game for me today and I couldn't handle it. That isn't encouraging. The dollar had another huge rally today and it could signal the end of this run for the precious metals. The gold shares are oversold here as well but they are staying there. I tried my trade and it failed. Mentally I'm disappointed that I couldn't do what was necessary this morning. I will have to attempt to regroup over the weekend. The stock market needs to hold up here and I think it will. Commodities on the other hand have rolled over and there should be no playing them from the long side for a while. I'll consider doing an OEX trade next week after checking the charts over the weekend. However after another losing trade, it will be hard to find the confidence necessary to be successful. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a selling spree today as the Dow lost 139 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We broke through the 1340 level on the S&P 500. Unless we get a sharp turnaround tomorrow, the trend will be changing to down. I expected today to be a waiting game for tomorrows employment report but that was not the case. All asset classes were liquidated today and we haven't seen that for a while. Something is going on but I haven't a clue as yet. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. We're still in a trading range here. Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar had a sharp rally from oversold levels. The dollar rally probably contributed to the stock market decline as well. Gold lost over $30 and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 7 1/8. ABX off 1 1/4, GG down 2 and NEM fell 1 3/4. Volume was good. My ABX May calls took a hit but not as much as expected, which is puzzling. We've decisively broken down through the 200 day moving average. This trade needs to be exited tomorrow. If we get a weak employment report that might provide a pop for the precious metal. That would be the time to bail out of this loser. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Todays market action wasn't expected by me. We are getting short term oversold on the stock indices but that may not mean anything if this is the start of something big. I certainly don't know. The transports were higher today and that means that there is a chance that today was a one day wonder. However the transports could have been reacting to the huge drop in oil today. Time will tell.

Weakness as expected with the Dow down 84 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1340 last week. Today we snapped back to that level. The next technical expectation would be a move back to the recent highs or above. That is what I would expect. If we break down from here that would change the situation and a new scenario would be expected. Stay tuned. Employment report out on Friday and that should be a catalyst one way or the other. GE fell 1/3 on average volume. GE is right at its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. Gold got pummeled again, down $25. The XAU lost 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX off 1/2, GG fell 3/8 and NEM was up 1/4. Volume was good here. My open order for the ABX May calls was filled this morning. Had I waited another hour, I could have gotten them cheaper. But you never know actually what you will do under market conditions until it happens. Fortunately the options are at the price I purchased them. This is supposed to be a short term trade and I hope I keep it that way. ABX is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still at a buy signal. I do feel that this trade has a chance to work. We'll see. The dollar didn't move much today and has been moving sideways. Still very oversold here. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. So another trade is on and I feel like this one at least has a chance. The entry could have been much better. I'll have to try and time the exit properly. I don't think if we get some upside in ABX that it is the beginning of a sustained move higher. A base would most likely have to form for a sustained move to happen. The stock indices should hold in here and move sideways to higher if my prognosis is correct. Tomorrow should be a holding pattern waiting for Friday. We'll see what happens.

The Dow bounced around today but ended the session flat. Volume was good today, however the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. The dip today was bought and that fits into my market view at the moment. However it is never a good thing when everyone thinks the same thing. I still feel we'll be seeing higher stock prices though. GE was up 16 cents on light volume. Moving sideways for now. Gold lost $16 and the XAU fell 5 1/3. Money is coming out of the precious metal. ABX down a point, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM dropped 1 1/3. Volume was pretty good. I did place an order for some ABX May calls. This will be a short term trade if the order is filled. Oversold on ABX and we are at the 200 day moving average. I'm leaving the order in overnight. There is always the chance that we will simply break the 200 day average and continue heading lower. That will be the sign that this trade isn't going to work. The US dollar was up a bit but not a lot. Very oversold there and a bounce can be expected. But that has been the case for several days now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices were dropping pretty good during the day but came back to pare their losses. Still overbought here but in up trends that condition can last a while. Gold has begun to drop and it may have to do with the end of the Fed policy of easy money. That would cause the US dollar to rise and would not be supportive for gold. I think Fridays employment report could be even more important than usual. We'll see on that. Silver is crashing on a daily basis at the moment from its parabolic rise. That won't be positive for gold either. However the Gold/XAU ratio signal just keeps getting stronger on the buy side. That's why I'm willing to step up and try the ABX trade here. We'll see what happens.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow today as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I expect a bit of weakness here to alleviate the short term overbought condition but I still think we are headed higher. Osama Bin Laden was killed over the weekend and that was the catalyst for the strong open. However we could not hold on to the gains. The employment report on Friday holds the key to this week I believe. However we have 3 more days to get there. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing doing there regarding a trade for now. Gold was flat on the day after opening much lower. But we sold off $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX fell 1 1/2, GG dropped 3 and NEM lost 1 1/3. It could be that everyone is heading towards the exits here for gold. However the Gold/XAU ratio is still flashing a buy signal and it is stronger than last week. The dollar was a touch lower today but remains very oversold. I am still considering the ABX May calls but will have to get the price that I want. I'm considering putting in an overnight order. We are now short term oversold on the gold shares. But that doesn't mean that they cannot go lower. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I believe that the Dow is due for a pause here but I've been wrong a lot lately. Any pullback can still be bought, in my opinion. I'm going to look at the ABX May calls for a short term trade. Not exactly sold on this though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. We'll see if this carries through for tomorrow.