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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

The Dow continued higher today as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market moves higher regardless of the overbought condition. Summation index moving higher. We were up 130 at one point but sold off a bit in the last hour. I did want to try the OEX puts but held off. With only 2 days to go a trade like this has to work fast. The trouble is it could turn into another loser just as fast. A lot of data in the next 2 days and option expiration. Usually that means some volatility but that hasn't been the case in recent months. We'll see. Gold also cannot be stopped as we moved to another record high. The precious metal was up over $22 on the futures. The XAU gained 5 1/2. ABX up 3/4. GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 1 1/8. Volume was above average. Gold is so overbought here that a downdraft is imminent in my opinion. It cannot simply continue to go straight up. The US dollar fell today but not enough to justify a $20+ move in gold. But that is just my opinion, which means absolutely nothing. Purchasing some gold share October calls yesterday would have been profitable. But it's too late and risky now. If and when we get a pull back, that may be the time to give them a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days to go in the October options and I will have to try and keep myself from doing something stupid. The only good set-ups here are for the downside and that hasn't worked for weeks. I'll do my best to stay on the sidelines. GE announces earnings on Friday and I have taken a look at the options there. However the risk is above average there as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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