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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

We finally got some downside today as the Dow lost 165 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. China raised interest rates and there was some Bank of America mortgage problem. Was todays action just a one day wonder? Stay tuned. This will turn the summation index down. Whether or not we get an extended decline remains to be seen. Gold took a hit today as well, dropping $35. The XAU fell 9 1/2. ABX lost 2 1/3, GG shed 2 and NEM led the way down by 2 1/2. Volume was pretty good. Could this be the end of the gold trade for now? The dollar had a very good day as well and is now bouncing from its oversold condition. I am not sure if this is a lasting trend. I did place an order for some ABX November calls. An extra week on these options. If this is the end of the gold trade than this trade will not work. However I expect that at some point gold will have some type of snap back bounce. So I'm willing to take a chance here. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. Perhaps this is the beginning of the decline in the indices that I expected a month and a half ago. However, technically we broke through the resistance on good volume. One scenario would be that we return to the resistance and then begin a more sustained rise. That would mean at the most, this decline would hold at around 1120 on the S&P 500. At this point it's all a guess. We'll see what the market has to say.

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