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Thursday, September 30, 2010

The Dow closed the month with a drop of 47 points. Volume picked up today. The advance/declines were about even. We opened higher and closed lower. I ended up getting some OEX puts in the morning when the market was positive. They are in the black. I'm not sure this trade will work but we are overbought and as I said yesterday the daily chart pattern looks like the August top. We also had a small move in the McClellan oscillator that implied short term weakness. I don't know how long that I will hold this position but it may not be too long. Tomorrow will tell a lot. Gold sold off early today but came back to finish unchanged. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX lost 2/3, GG off 1/2 and NEM led the way, off a buck. Volume picked up here as well. The dollar sold off early but then came back a bit. I canceled the ABX call trade for now. I wanted to focus my attention on the OEX. I may try the gold shares again later before the expiration. Still very overbought here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There are some longer term indicators that imply there will be some weakness going forward. We'll see if they are accurate. Beginning of the month tomorrow and that usually means positive money flows for the market. The OEX trade is on.

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