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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Dow lost 77 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The question is if there's more to come. Probably. I don't know what the Fed will do or how the market will react but there is more to go on the downside at some point this week. I'm guessing they will lower the funds rate by a quarter point. What the market does, who knows? Even if we drop it will set up for higher prices down the road I think. Gold lost $5 today and the gold shares sold off on good volume. Looks like I could be too late there. We'll see with the earnings tomorrow. ABX was down over 1 1/2 and NEM lost 1 1/4. Perhaps we'll get a rally in the gold shares tomorrow, the earnings premium will disappear and I'll be able to get some puts cheap. Wishful thinking most likely. BA was up around 30 cents in a down market, which is encouraging. We were up there over a dollar higher and sold off, which is not. The volume was good. Perhaps today was the sell day and then buy them cheaper in a few days. Looks like I'll be holding them for a while now. We'll see. GE didn't do much on light volume. That's the trouble with GE. A lot of the time it just goes nowhere. It's worth trading if you are in it when it moves but otherwise it sits around a lot. I still like the longer term calls there. Mentally I'm OK. The market is acting as I expect for the time being. I didn't sleep all that well again. What the market does after the Fed tomorrow might provide some clues as to where we go from here. Or it may not. Also have end of month window dressing. So I would expect some volatility. It will be a day to keep an eye on things...

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