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Friday, September 14, 2007

The Dow managed to tack on 17 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened much lower and came all the way back, which bodes well for the bullish case. There is a weak sell signal here. But todays action will make me hesitate on the puts for now. That said, I'll be looking at the OEX puts on Monday. I think at some point next week there will be some weakness. It's just a matter of when. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU was up a half. The XAU rallied early and fell back. ABX did as well and I'm looking at the puts there for next week. I don't think there will be any inflation in next weeks reports and gold is due for a rest. If we rally early in the week I might give them a try. I'll need to see the charts this weekend. GE was down a bit on average volume. Hard to make much out of todays action in that issue. Perhaps we are building a small top, that's a guess. At any rate, it will all boil down to the Fed announcement on Tuesday. My guess is a quarter point cut and we'll see where the market goes after that. Anything can and will happen. The summation index is still pointing higher and has been for weeks. You can't ignore that. Todays action was positive going forward. It's a tricky game to play with one week left for the September options. Mentally I'm feeling good. I have a couple of ideas for next week but will need to go over everything this weekend. There is no pressure to do anything so I'll just take it as it comes. I can always sit it out and go to October. I don't think that will happen though...

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