The Fed raised rates a quarter point. Ho-hum. It was widely anticipated. I can't remember when the consensus on such a thing was so universal. The Dow didn't do much, was up 22 points. Gold didn't move much but the XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM gained back what it lost yesterday. My options gained a little. Don't know about this trade. Maybe it will work but I doubt it. I think the OEX has room to move up a little from here but I'm not expecting anything big and I think we will be rangebound for a while. The VIX is very low so I don't see a huge move up at this point. CBOE call/put ratio has been gaining bullishness which isn't a positive. However my own RSI tool shows that we could be getting a little oversold. Mixed bag for sure. The employment report on friday and then everybody out for the long holiday weekend. Summer doldrums? You bet. Not the greatest time to be trying to make money but we shall see. Nobody said it would be easy...

The Dow came back a little today, up 56 points. The volume was average. Advance/declines were about even though. SPX not up as much as the Dow. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Even that may not break us out of this market apathy. We'll see. Gold sold off big today, off $8.50. However the XAU was only down a point and a half. NEM was down around 75 cents. It seems the gold stocks move ahead of the price of gold lately. In a small capitalization market such as this, manipulation would be easier to take place. The options I purchased are almost cut in half. NEM is right on a multiweek uptrend line. Perhaps tomorrow will be the key. But this is almost a certain loser, even with over 7 weeks left. It's too far out of the money at this point. The entry was wrong. I am going to have to cut the loss and move on. For me, as always, easier said than done. So we will see what the Fed has to say and how the various markets react.

Interesting day in the overall market today. The power transfer to Iraq took place this morning in a surprise move. The market rallied in the morning with the Dow up over 80 points. Stayed up most of the day but with a couple hours to go, sold off and ended down 15 points. Not a good sign. The volume picked up some for a monday and there has been more volume lately, up or down. Advance/declines slightly negative. Stochastics have rolled over. Doesn't look good near term. Perhaps we are setting up for a rally into July expiration. It's just a guess. Gold was down a couple bucks on the news. However the XAU and NEM got slammed, down 2 1/2 and a buck respectively. My options have now lost a third of there value and this trade looks like a loser. The daily charts have broken down also. I know I said this would be a longer term trade but it isn't looking like that after today. I chased the move and now will pay for it I suppose. Foolish. I will wait for the Fed announcement on wednesday, for that was really the whole premise of this trade. Perhaps I should listen to myself once in a while when it comes to the duration of option trades. These are short term timing vehicles, not multi-month trade products. I really believe that. Perhaps this trade will work but I'm sincerely doubting that right now. It is probably best to take the loss and move on. Not get stuck watching this thing go nowhere while other opportunities possibly await. The mental anguish may take its toll. But I'll hang around until wednesday and take it from there...

S&P futures are up 3 points and gold is up a dollar this sunday. I think this week will be a sign of where we are going in the near term. Once the Fed announcement is out of the way wednesday, the market will have no more excuses. Now I'm not saying that it couldn't end up being a wishy-washy, trading range summer. That's a possibility. But I think this week will provide some insight and direction for the market. The supposed Iraq power turnover is wednesday also. As long as that doesn't turn into a full scale civil war, it should be a positive. We shall see. The gold trade that I have established is a toss-up. Perhaps I have gone out too far in time. The strike price I chose is right at resistance. However if the multiweek trend I envision does occur, this trade will work. And as always I will have my eye on the OEX for profit possibilities. Summer is just beginning and I will try to trade my best. It will require discipline, as always and some market insight on my part. The latter has been sorely lacking as of late.

OK, I was a little early on my summer rally call. Dow down 71 points today. However there was a rebalancing of some indexes at the close which skewed the results. Advance/declines were positive. The Dow dropped around 40 points in the last minute. This will probably be made up first thing monday morning. The volume picked up a little this week so maybe we are ready to break out of the trading range for real this time. Gold, the XAU and NEM didn't move much today. The options I purchased lost a little premium. More this weekend.

The market was down a bit today. The Dow lost 35 points, however the advance/declines were slightly positive. Volume was light as usual. Waiting for the 30th I suppose. No clear signal although it looks like the market wants to go higher. The XAU and NEM sold off a bit from when I was here earlier. Could be a badly timed trade but it's got a lot of time left so we'll see. The options didn't move, pricewise. And so another trade begins. What are the parameters for this one? I'll give it some time. If it gets cut in half I'll dump it and maybe even before then. If we get to resistance at 42.5, I'll see what the price looks like and the amount of time left and take it from there. This could just be a dumb trade. Or it could be that my thoughts are correct and it will work out. I'd like to see something solid with the OEX to trade but I can't just make it happen. The markets go where they go. See ya tomorrow...

Here early today to announce a trade in gold. Gold moved up $8 today. I hope I'm not chasing the move but I am. However I am believing this is a multiweek upmove. The weekly charts are just getting started to the upside. I did something that I don't usually do and bought some August calls. Normally I think that options are a short term trading tool. I really think that that's what they do best. However this move in gold should last a while as long as the dollar stays weak and the geopolitical landscape remains uncertain. And those trends I expect to continue. I didn't put a lot into this trade, only 5 contracts for the NEM 42.5 August calls. NEM is up a buck right now to 39.90 or so. I'm not sure how this will work out, there is a lot of resistance at 42.5 for NEM. Plus it's out of the money with its price based on time and volatility premium. It could be a bad trade, who knows? The next few weeks will tell. I'll be back around closing time with the daily update.

Doldrums over. Let the summer rally begin. Market rallied in the final hour again today with the Dow up 84 points. Volume was better than usual as was yesterday which I noticed after the close. We have broken out of trading range from the last couple of weeks to the upside. New highs in the offing? Time will tell. Gold didn't move much today and neither did the XAU, which was up a tad. NEM was down a touch. I would still like to put on a long gold trade before the Fed announcement. How to trade the rally? I see that GE has already moved up and is in a solid uptrend. I'll have to check the weeklies there. OEX perhaps? There is resistance on a weekly basis around 10 points from here. That will be the key. If we can somehow break through that, it's up, up and away. The options still have alot of time premium in them since we are in the first week post expiration. Also one less day on them with the July 4th holiday. So decisions must be made. But not today and for me probably not this week.

Half hour to go. Dow is up 20 points. Was down 40 earlier today. Not a lot of volume and the internals are even. Gold up around a buck, with the XAU up around a point and NEM up a little too. Another nothing day in the market, really. Possibly getting to a slight oversold reading but not one with any real conviction. And so we drift around aimlessly, in a sea of uncertainty. Waiting for June 30th with the Fed and the turnover of power in Iraq. Now will these events prove to be market movers? Don't know. Earnings are due to start coming out soon. Perhaps that will propel us one way or another. Maybe today is a reversal, being down over 40 points at one point and now reversing to be up. But my feeling is more sideways action for now. I would like to see gold come back so I may initiate a long position. But that may not happen either. It's tough to sit on the sidelines but patience and discipline are sometimes well rewarded. But at this rate it could be a looooong summer...

Market did nothing all day, then dropped 44 points in the last hour. Volume light, advance/declines slightly negative. Gold was down a little as was the XAU and NEM. Kind of a blah monday. Preview of the summer to come? Who knows? Is it tough to stay on the sidelines and wait for a decent set-up? Yes. I guess we could take a look back at the trading so far this year. It is almost the halfway point. And I don't foresee the closeout of any trades before the end of June. I started the year with the blowout losses in the GE trade. This was the trade where my 50 contract order wasn't getting filled at one brokerage so I put in another 50 contract order in at another account I have and was immediately filled. However I did not cancel the order that wasn't getting filled and when I went back to cancel it a minute later, it too was filled. So I had 100 contracts for a position that expired worthless. Oooh, the pain, the pain, as maybe Tatu would have said on Fantasy Island. Sure, I can joke about it now because time has passed but it was torture when it happened. My own fault for being anxious on the trade and it wasn't that good anyway as it turned out. Made a couple of OEX trades in March that didn't work. Was it the aftermath of the horrendous GE trade or just poor trading, I don't know. Finally got it together in April with a couple winning trades followed by another winner in May. Still in negative territory for the year though, however the loss has been more than cut in half. We'll see what the next six months brings. Hopefully I'll make it back to profitability if I can remain focused and not do the usual stupid mistakes. My discipline has been better but that's what blowout losses can do for you. Don't need that lesson again...

Sunday afternoon, Globex S&P futures are up a couple points. Only plan this week will be to get long gold unless a clear signal appears elsewhere. Not a lot happening this week. Fed meeting next week. Summer arrives today and the doldrums are already here.

Dow up about 40 points. Kind of a listless expiration. Gold was up $6. However the XAU was only up around a point and a half. NEM was up 65 cents. My thinking is to get long NEM on a pullback next week. There is no clear signal for the OEX but if one appears I'll act on it. More this weekend.

Another light volume, no movement affair on Wall Street. Dow off around 5 points with a half hour to go. Inflation data came out stronger than anticipated earlier and we sold off. But now we are basically unchanged and going nowhere. It's very rare for this type of non-activity during options expiration week. I don't know what to say. It's also a June expiration so the quarterly stuff goes off the board too. Gold was up $4 ant the XAU and NEM have moved higher again. The NEM July 37.5s have doubled and I probably have missed that trade. They were expensive so I didn't pull the trigger. Plus I was looking for a little more downside. The open interest tripled on these things yesterday, making me believe that this trade will work out. I will move to the July 40s if necessary I guess. I don't like chasing moves though. I don't like missing them either. I suppose I will wait to see if gold gets back to below $380 before I do anything but who knows? And so the dilemma of trading continues. It is such a frustrating game sometimes. Somehow, during times like these, you've just got to stay focused and keep believing in yourself. The markets will do what they do. Patience, discipline and remaining motivated must be kept in the forefront. Opportunities will present themselves if you keep paying attention. It is not easy but it must be done. The rewards will come in the future. You've got to believe that or you're doomed...

A nothing day in the stock market today. Very unusual during options expiration week. Dow, OEX and Nasdaq all flat on light volume. Advance/declines about even. Signals are mixed and only a fool would take a position with only 2 days left and no clear direction. Am I a fool? Have been in the past so you never know. Gold was down $4 but the XAU and NEM rallied from the morning lows and are now positive. I can't figure that out. I'm guessing it's option week related but I don't know. Could be that the smart money is buying now in anticipation of higher gold prices in the near term. Gold is at $384 and I would like to get long if it gets in the $370s. I still want the July NEM 37.5s. They are too expensive right now in my opinion and I would like to get them for under a buck. I don't like it when the stocks and gold diverge because it is hard to tell what is really going on. I'll remain patient if I can. Maybe getting the options next week if all goes well. About to close on a really flat day. Summer doldrums already? Could be...

Greenspan spoke today after the inflation report. He said don't worry about inflation. Basically, that's it. Market rallied good, up over 80 points on the Dow at one point. However we have sold off in the final hour and were up only around 10 points. Now coming back with 15 minutes to go, up about 40. Bonds had their best day in quite a while, up big. Advance/declines at least 3 to 1 positive. Volume looks light again, even with options expiration week. Gold was up $4 with the XAU up a couple points and NEM up a point. I don't want to think that I have missed that trade here. I am hoping the gold market will come back and set up a better double bottom for the July options. But maybe it won't. Time will tell and I will not chase it here. Any other trades on the horizon? Doubtful for this week if I can maintain some discipline. I still think we will rally this week with the OEX approaching 560. But I don't have enough conviction to back that up with cold hard cash. I suppose I'll wait for gold and see what happens...

Interesting day today as we sold off from the opening. Dow off 75 points, OEX down 5. There can be a case made that we closed right on the short term uptrend line. Perhaps with favorable inflation data tomorrow we can hold here. But that remains to be seen. The advance/declines were horrible today with declines ahead 5 to 1. Volume again was light. Never trust mondays is another often used cliche. However when the McClellan oscillator number comes out later today, I'm sure it will be negative, turning the summation index down. This implies lower prices. However sometimes after a move into positive territory for the oscillator, a move down through the zero line is what is known as a buy spike. This is a chance to get long for those who missed out on the first move. Confusing, yes but good to know anyway. Since I have no clear convictions at this time, I'm on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM got pounded, down 3 and over a point respectively. We are getting to the area where a double bottom may form. I am ready to buy July NEM calls. If it holds at the weekly uptrend line on the XAU, the trade will work. If it doesn't then I get right out with a small loss. I hope I'm hearing this, "A small loss". Anyway, the options have a lot of time premium in them, however if this trade is right profits will ensue. XAU is at 80 and change, would like to pull the trigger on this one at 78. Hopefully this week, purchasing the NEM July 37.5's at under a buck. Tomorrows inflation data will be important for the overall market and gold itself, so it should be a pretty interesting day. Wish I had the guts to be long the OEX here but there will be better times to try and be a hero. See you at sunrise...

Sunday afternoon. Checked the longer term gold charts yesterday. Looks like we are getting to oversold territory there as well as the short term. Now if the weekly XAU uptrend line holds, you've got yourself as trade. I'll be looking at July NEM calls as a proxy for gold again. Would like to see NEM get down to around 36 again. I'm not sure but it might take a little while for a base to form this time. And therein lies the usual problem with trading. You just never know for sure. You take your best shot and see what happens. The only predictable thing about it is its unpredictability. However that is the game plan as of now for gold. The OEX is not giving any decent signal one way or the other. I will hopefully stay on the sidelines unless something decent appears. Lots of economic data to be released this week. But we are also heading into summer, when people take vacations, the kids get out of school and the markets are not in the forefront of moneymovers minds as they are at other times during the year. So the sideways action since the beginning of the year could continue along with the light volume. Maybe we will head up to the top of the trading range. Time will tell. See ya tomorrow.

An unexpected day off. And coming rather closely behind Memorial Day weekend. Another welcome break from the action. The S&P futures are off 3 points, the dollar is stronger and gold hasn't moved that much. I can always anticipate what will happen next week but you can never be sure. It doesn't look like there will be a clear signal for the OEX. I am waiting for the XAU to get to the weekly uptrend line and that could happen this week. My prognosis is that when the Fed raises rates at the end of the month it will only be a 1/4 point and the dollar will go lower after that announcement, sending gold higher. I'll look to play NEM again as a proxy for gold. There are inflation numbers coming up this week but they haven't affected the price of gold lately as far as I can tell. We could be entering the summer doldrums period. Although some would claim we have been there for a while. And they may have a valid argument. We are stuck in a trading range with lighter than usual volume. It's been going on for weeks. Which makes the trading tough. If there is no real price movement, they're just aren't any good profit opportunities. I guess you could be an option writer and take some cash. But I'm here to trade and take the writers money. But that is for another day. I'll be taking it easy, checking the headlines and the charts. It will be tough to find a play for next week and the prudent path may be on the sidelines. Patience and discipline are extremely important traits to have sometimes. But it ain't easy...

Kind of a nowhere, light volume, ahead of the extended weekend day. Dow up around 20 points with 20 minutes to go. OEX up about a point. Gold up a little along with the XAU and NEM. I'll be patient there. Option expiration week coming up with some inflation reports. Will short the OEX if it sets up that way or go long if it comes back to the trendline. This also could be one of those rare times where a trade isn't warranted during expiration week. But I'll be looking for something. More this weekend...

Around 20 minutes left, Dow down around 55 points. OEX off 4. I guess we were due for some type of pullback. But how long will it last? There is a short-term uptrend line coming in around 449 on the OEX. I'll get long there if I have the guts. The divergences mentioned yesterday have come to fruition already. No time for the hesitant. Gold, the XAU and NEM got clobbered today. I'm now wondering if the weekly uptrend line will hold, if and when we get there. But I'll play it when it happens. However there could be a shift in the value of the dollar here which seems to be the driver of gold. The dollar is gaining value. As one would expect with the prospect of higher interest rates. At least that's how it used to be. I'll keep an eye on it. But the nearterm play will be getting long the OEX when it reaches the uptrendline. Could happen tomorrow. Long weekend ahead. Advance/declines weak today. Volume nothing special. Still could be considered overbought even with today's action. On a longer term idea if we get a third higher price with a lower McClellan oscillator reading then that would be the ideal spot for a purchase of OEX puts. A 3rd divergence is sometimes the catalyst for an extended move. But you can't say there wasn't any warning for today's action. Dow off now more than 60. Profit taking before the long weekend?

Halfhour to go. Market started lower, midway went higher, now flat. Would like to short the OEX with some puts but will wait. Overbought here but not drastically so. Gold, the XAU and NEM all down. Will try and be patient there and wait for the next month option cycle. We'll see. I have some other commitments after the close and cannot rant on here as usual. Will maybe get short before the weekend if strength lasts that long. We have higher prices and a lower McClellan oscillator. We have declines ahead of advances today. Divergences to be sure. Timing will be key. Will it work? Stay tuned.

A big up day with the Dow tacking on 140 points and the OEX up over 8 points. The OEX has broken its multi-week downtrend line and the Dow is right at that same line along with the S&P 500. Advance/declines were good. The only thing missing was the volume, which was light. That could be a monday factor or it could mean that this OEX breakout is a fakeout. I'm not sure what to think but I'm a believer for now. There just weren't any sellers. Perhaps the expiration gyrations are starting early due to the unexpected market close this friday due to former president Reagans death. I don't know. Gold was up 3 bucks with both the XAU and NEM advancing. I'm still looking for lower prices before entering a trade but I could be missing the boat there as well. Would like to have the guts here to short the overall market and possibly will tomorrow if another light volume rally takes place. It's risky though and a more prudent path would be to stay on the sidelines. Suppose I should have gotten long last week but hindsight is easy. It's foresight that's giving me problems...

S&P futures are off a little bit and gold is up a tad. The dilemma at this point is that there is no clear signal in a sideways market. There are 2 weeks until option expiration. Is the gold correction over? Which way will the Dow move? At this point, I have no answers. I should stay on the sidelines until something clearly appears. That's what I should do. But the markets call like the sirens on a forbidden island. I've somehow got to find a way to remain patient. Even if it means waiting until July to make a trade. If a good signal appears, then I will act. If not, I'll have to wait. It's real money I'm trading with, not some fantasy account. It's hard to remember that sometimes. And so it goes. I suppose if we are weak in the early part of the week I'll look to get some calls. If we rally up to the multi-week downtrend line in the OEX early I'll look to short it there. Gold is a different story. I would like to get long but am not sure if this is the right spot. It could be. But I think I will wait for the stochastic to get down under 20 on a daily basis. Plus a 50% or better pullback from the 3 week rally. That would be a more logical entry point. But ya never know. I was also looking at PFE but that's an iffy proposition also. Trading is hard but having patience is harder. Globex quotes unchanged now. I suppose that trading is a battle with oneself and the markets at the same time. If it was so simple everyone would always win and nobody would ever lose. But we know better than that. It is a sometimes cruel game that pits you against some of the best minds and the most money available. Money moves around and you hope to follow it and take a little for yourself if you can. But make no mistake it is tough, time consuming and treacherous. This game will eat you alive. The markets don't care who you are or where you came from. It's not for everybody. Before you get started, you'd be wise to find out if it's for you...

The market rallied on a strong jobs report again. But the volume was weak and we finished way off the highs at around plus 45 points on the Dow. Were up over 100 at one point. I still think the trend is up but we might pause for a bit. Which would give me a chance to get some calls going into expiration the week after next. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU and NEM were up good, over a point and a half and 90 cents respectively. Still think waiting on those is the best play for now. Will check the charts over the weekend. We are in a rangebound market overall. Patience is required, however, hard to do. There will be some decent opportunities in the next 2 weeks. I hope to find them. But I don't see any explosive moves at this point. Could be an early indication of the summer doldrums. Will get back here this weekend...

10 minutes to go. Dow down around 50 points, OEX down, gold down, XAU down, NEM down. OEX relieving its overbought condition. I still think the trend there is up and will look now to get long when I feel it is appropriate. Early next week possibly, depending on what happens tomorrow. The XAU needs to get back to the weekly uptrend line for a long position to be established. I feel that will happen within the next couple of weeks, hopefully. There was a good sell signal for the OEX here but the options I was looking at were priced too high. I think this pullback is just a breather. I'll have to check where support comes in and look to get long there. I think that idea will work. But nothing is for certain when it comes to the markets. Bias to the upside though, I still believe. Dow now down 60 near the close. Tomorrow beckons...

10 minutes to go. Dow is up 70 points. Continuing to stay overbought. We have just broken a downtrend line. However the volume is light. Advance/declines are solidly positive. There is a more significant downtrend line at around 552 on the OEX, which is around 4 points away on that index. When and if we get there, I'm buying some puts. The short-term indicators are overbought. They have stayed that way long enough. Perhaps fridays employment report will be a catalyst for a sell-off. I don't know. Gold is down $3 and the XAU was weaker earlier but has come back and also bounced off an uptrend line around 3 weeks in the making. NEM broke that same line on its chart yesterday. I'm on the sidelines there but would like to get long. No clear signal yet. My attention will be given to the OEX on the anticipation of getting short at the above mentioned downtrend line. Perhaps we will get there tomorrow. If we just break through it then I'll try to take a small loss. However with this overbought condition, I believe some type of pause or pullback is in order. But with the markets, ya never know. No time to be patient if it gets to the 552 level. Puts, just buy'em. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Kind of a light volume tuesday after a long weekend. Market was higher earlier, sold off and now is coming back into the close. I don't think the scalp I had in mind would have worked. We are staying overbought on the OEX. If it continues for another couple of days, I will get short before the employment number on friday. Declines are slightly ahead of advances. Dow off 5 points with 15 minutes to go. Gold is interesting. Actual gold price has not moved and the dollar is weaker. XAU and NEM are off pretty good right now, a point and a half and 60 cents respectively. Considering the price of gold hasn't moved, this could be telling for the days to come. Or not. The weekly XAU implies higher prices but the daily charts do not. Will we come all the way back to the weekly uptrend line or not? Should I go out an extra month on the options? How far will we retrace the recent upmove? Too many questions and not enough answers. No trades for now, however if the OEX stays up for a couple days I'll look to get short for a scalp. But the longer-term trend is up and now the Dow is up 20 points. Tough game to play. It was nice to have a little break over the weekend. But now it is back to reality. Successful trading requires effort, self-denial and grim perseverance. We'll see what tomorrow brings...