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Friday, January 03, 2025

Buying was the order of the day as the Dow gained 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I believe that it will be successful. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus. The S&P 500 rose 1 1/4%. The short term indicators here have turned back up for the most part. Declines can now be bought in my opinion. I think that the zero line will hold here on the summation index. I did place an order overnight for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled. I will try again next week if we see some selling. There is one less day in the January option cycle now as the markets will be closed next Thursday in mourning of former president Jimmy Carter. So the timing of any trade will be even more critial than usual. But it looks like a double bottom on the S&P daily chart for now. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are turning lower. The VIX is back to its 200 day moving average. I'm guessing that the VIX will continue to decline and htat stocks will move higher. I could be wrong. We didn't get the Santa Claus rally this year and that is a cause for concern in the near term. Beyond that however it doesn't have a good forecasting record. Years ending in the number 5 usually are good for the stock market but that didn't happen in 2015. There are always exceptions to any rule. For now we are sticking with the idea of a SPY January call trade to be made at some point next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, January 02, 2025

Certainly an interesting day to begin the new year as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The day began with a rally that then faded. Another rally was attempted and then there was a sharp drop only to try and meander back to positive territory but we didn't make it. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst scenario. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold but not completely. They may be trying to turn around here. One of our short term indicators is flashing a buy signal. I'm still considering the SPY January calls for a short term trade here but did not have the guts to try it today. The proximity of the summation index to the zero line is a factor. However I might have the courage to try that idea tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up $30 on the futures most likely as a reaction to the terror attack in the US. The US dollar was higher as well and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares found a bid as the XAU climbed 5 3/4 and GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was a bit above average. It was the best day for GDX in a while and its short term indicators are now moving up. There is a down trend line in place here that comes in at around the 37 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but off from its best levels on the day. The short term indicators for the VIX are trending sideways. It is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can make a case for the VIX moving lower from here but it is not cast in stone. I'll take another look at things tonight and then decide if I want to try the SPY calls. Many of the foreign markets remained closed overnight but those that were open were weaker in general. We'll close out the week tomorrow.