Finally a bounce as the Dow gained 498 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down and approaching the zero line. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. The inflation data came in lighter than expected and traders breathed a sigh of relief. The question now is this just a snap back to the up trend line just violated in the S&P 500 before we move lower or not? I'm inclined to believe that we've seen the worst for this move down as some of our technical indicators are at levels associated with bottoms. That doesn't mean we won't get some backing and filling or even a retest of the recent lows. However the close proximity to the zero line on the summation index is a concern. I do think that it will hold up this time around and an unraveling of the market is not going to happen. I could be wrong. We've got a holiday week on tap and things should settle down. The Santa Claus rally will also be due. The market will have a say in whether our projections are correct as time moves on. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume here was good. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and is now back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is another indicator that is pointing to the decline being over as it doesn't stay overbought for long. My guess is that we will see higher prices or at least sideways price action for stock prices in the near term. Plenty of things to look at over the weekend but I'll probably wait until next year for the next trade. Holiday mode approaching. It has been quite a volatile week. Europe and Asia were slightly lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stabilization was the best we could do today as the Dow finally broke its losing streak by finishing ahead 15 points on heavy volume again. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down with conviction and is now approaching the zero line. This could spell even more trouble as the market simply falls apart when crossing the zero line on the summation index. It is a rare event. We can say that the market already fell apart yesterday. We've got option expiration tomorrow as well so things will be volatile. Throw in the inflation data before the market opens and you see what kind of day it could be. We are still long overdue for some kind of bounce but I've been saying that for days. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had slight losses ahead of tomorrows fireworks. The short term indicators for the S&P are still pointing down with room to go before hitting oversold. I'm not sure what will happen next but we certainly can't rule anything out. I'm on the sidelines probably for the rest of the year when it comes to the option trading. Too many mistakes in the second half of the year has cut into my profits. Gold dropped $40 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were generally higher. The XAU was off a point and GDX slipped over 1/8. Volume was average. Short term oversold for GDX and staying that way for now. The fundamental picture for gold has turned negative at this point. If and when it gets to the 30 level is where we'll take a look at the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm doing OK considering yesterdays trading debacle. The VIX was lower today as the the market didn't collapse again. Still short term overbought here. Not sure what to expect next with the VIX but it usually doesn't stay overbought for an extended period of time. However we are in a crazy moment for the markets so anything goes here as well. If we can get through tomorrow we have a holiday week coming up when things usually settle down. Europe and Asia were down as traders are heading for the exits. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't care and got clobbered. The Dow fell over a thousand points on heavy volume. 1123 points was the final total. The advance/declines were 13 to 1 negative. The summation index is falling lower. We knew that there was something fishy going on but we didn't know how much it would stink. Ten days in a row now negative on the Dow and I cannot remember that happening in my trading life. The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line from August and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving down with room to go. Not yet short term oversold but it appears that's where it is headed. I was still looking for an oversold bounce that never came. When the S&P reached its up trend line, I purchased some of the December calls. That was another mistake as the market was in free fall which I did not acknowledge even though it was staring me right in the face. Realizing that this trade was a mistake, I got out but not before incurring yet another loss. A negative 75% on the trade but thankfully there wasn't a lot of money involved. The S&P 500 shed over 175 points. The NASDAQ dropped 3 1/2%. They are catching up with the other falling indices that are already oversold and staying that way. The original idea of the SPY puts was a valid one. Gold lost over fifty bucks. The US dollar jumped up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 6 3/4, while GDX lost 1 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is short term oversold and staying that way. The longer term up trend line here comes in at 30 and that's much lower from here. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated once again as I could not perform properly when it came to todays trade. Sitting on the sidelines or going with the puts was the correct path. The short term trades seem to be my downfall so maybe I will have to eliminate them in the coming new year. The warning signs that something different was going on in the market was there but I failed to heed the signals. The continued negative breadth finally came to fruition. The VIX had a huge move higher and closed above 27. Short term overbought on the VIX now. Above the 20 level and that will lead to more volatility. I certainly did not see that coming. Two days left in the December option cycle and inflation data out on Friday. I'll just sit back and observe at this point. Asia was mixed and Europe flat overnight. I'd expect some selling to occur overseas tonight. Interesting times.

Once again sellers had the upper hand as the Dow fell 267 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. Something weird is going on here for sure as the Dow has lost ground for nine days in a row while the S&P 500 has traded sideways. The Russell 2000 has been in a steady decline along with the New York Composite. But the NASDAQ has had a slight rise. Oversold on some indices without a bounce and that can be dangerous as in even steeper falling prices. But I am favoring the SPY December calls for a short term trade and might purchase some tomorrow ahead of the Fed. Today in fact may have been the time to get them. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. But I do believe that some kind of upside bounce is long overdue and we should see one before option expiration on Friday. I could be wrong. I might just stay on the sidelines as well because my track record with the short term trades is pretty poor. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU lost 1 1/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. GDX finished below its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators are rising but are not yet short term overbought. So there could be a bit more selling before we see some upside according to the VIX. Which would make it hard to purchase the SPY calls with only three days left in the December option cycle. So you can see the predicament here. However I can always wait for the market to settle down as well. I'll ponder what to do overnight. Needless to say the Fed tomorrow will get things moving one way or the other. Asia and Europe were lower as perhaps we're seeing a worldwide retreat at the moment. We'll see if we have a wild Wednesday on the agenda.

Still a mixed picture for stocks as the Dow fell yet again to the tune of 110 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. The overall market did better than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 sporting gains on the day. The gains would of been better but we had a last half hour drop. Eight days in a row lower for the Dow and it is very oversold on a short term basis. There will be a decent bounce here and soon. But we don't know if it will be just an oversold bounce or an actual bottom. The market behavior is even more puzzling that usual right now. Plus we have options expiration week, the Fed on Wednesday and inflation data on expiration Friday to deal with. The trading will have to be nimble if attempted. I'm not sure what to do at this point so I might have to remain on the sidelines. I did favor the SPY puts but now I'm thinking perhaps to try and catch the bounce that is overdue. The trading is never easy. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. GDX has made it back to its 200 day moving average. It is also on the lower Bollinger band. Not all of its short term indicators are oversold. This would be the spot to try the GDX calls but I'm not going to do it. Perhaps going out to the January option cycle would be a better idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. The short term indicators have ramped up with room to go. Not sure what's going on with the VIX. So here we are with 4 days left in the December option cycle. Retail sales out tomorrow which should get things going in the morning. Waiting on the Fed and the expected 1/4 point rate reduction Wednesday. The market reaction to that will be the key for the rest of that session and perhaps longer. I'll reconsider what to do tonight. Asia and Europe were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We had a gap higher at the open but sellers continue to be in charge as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ had a slight gain and the S&P 500 finished flat. Looks like it is too late for the SPY December puts but we'll see. It has been a mixed picture for stocks lately. Over the past week or so the Dow, New York Composite and the Russell 2000 have dropped back toward their 50 day moving averages. They are short term oversold. Seven days in a row lower for the Dow. However the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just moved sideways. They remains short term overbought. Something has to give soon. Not sure if it will be a rally to even more overbought levels for the NASDAQ and S&P. Or perhaps they will actively join in on the decline that we've seen elsewhere. The fact that the Dow can't even get a bounce from oversold levels is a concern. Gold dropped over forty dollars today. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU fell 3 2/3 and GDX dropped a point. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing down and it is almost back to the 200 day moving average again. Recent volatility in this index makes it hard to trade right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today with a mixed market. The short term indicators here are trending higher but not with conviction. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. We've got the Fed coming in next week along with options expiration so it should be interesting. Short term trades will be the only choice with little time to go in the December option cycle. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the SPY options next week. Europe and Asia wre both lower on Friday with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Now it appears that sellers have the upper hand as the Dow fell for the sixth day in a row. The most watched index dropped 234 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Although it wasn't deep sell off by any means the inability to have more than a one day rally is concerning for the bulls. A bounce at the least is due for the Dow. The S&P 500 was off over thirty points. The short term indicators here have rolled over. It now looks like the SPY put trade has been missed. Unless we see some upside heading into the Fed meeting next week I may have to just continue to be on the sidelines. Gold slumped over fifty bucks today as the price movement here lately has been big both ways. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates again. The XAU lost 5 3/4, while GDX shed 1 3/8. Volume was average. Staying away from GDX has probably been a good thing with the recent volatility there being short and sweet both ways. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but we didn't see the short term indicators move that much. Not sure what that means. Stocks closed on their lows today and that isn't a positive sign. Running out of time in the December option cycle. The most we can hope for now is a short term trade and that isn't usually where my best efforts occur. Europe finished relatively unchanged and Asia was higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in where expected and the overall market took off to the upside. The Dow however did not gain any steam as it fell 99 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher by far and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a good day and the short term indicators here have turned up. The SPY December put trade is still on the radar but it will have to wait until next week if things set up for it. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares rallied this time around. The XAU gained 5 1/3, while GDX was up over a point. Volume was average. GDX has made it back to the 50 day moving average. It looks like I've missed out on a GDX call trade again but there wasn't exactly a clear signal. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits the overall market rally. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. More inflation data due tomorrow. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

More selling ahead of tomorrows inflation data as the Dow fell 154 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. A lack of buyers as the market plays a waiting game. The Dow led the way lower as it has been lately. That isn't the most bearish scenario. If we continue lower tomorrow our SPY put trade idea will have been missed. If we move higher perhaps we can try it before option expiration. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. I have no idea one way or the other about the inflation data out tomorrow. The market reaction will be the key. Technically speaking the S&P remains short term overbought but could be in the process of rolling over. Gold jumped over thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares going nowhere isn't bullish. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I still don't have any GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today as its short term indicators headed sideways. It will be interesting to see what happens here tomorrow. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how tomorrow goes.

Selling to start the week as the Dow fell 240 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower but not with conviction. The S&P 500 was down but remains short term overbought. The short term indicators have turned down though. Have we missed the chance for the SPY December puts? Perhaps. We will know for sure after the inflation data on Wednesday and the market reaction to it. Patience for now. Gold was up twenty bucks as geo-political tensions rose over the weekend. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 1/2, while GDX jumped 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside although the gold shares were off of their best levels for the day. Some of the short term indicators for GDX turned back up. Not sure now if it's headed back to the 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated if I've missed the SPY put trade. However I can't let that affect me going forward. I do still have another trade idea for the Fed meeting next week but that is pretty risky as there will be only three days left in the December option cycle. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have turned up. If the VIX continues higher, the market should keep heading lower and the SPY put trade will be missed. Hasn't happened yet but now that possiblity exists. Asia and Europe were mixed to begin the week. We'll see if we get follow through selling tomorrow.

Todays employment data came in where expected but the markets continued to be mixed. The Dow fell 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is turning lower but not with conviction. Once again the NASDAQ led thw way up and that remains a positive going forward. The S&P 500 was higher as well. It still remains short term overbought. Lately whatever selling we do see has been met with buyers. I canceled my open order for the SPY December puts. I'll probably try this idea again at some point next week. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU lost almost 3 points and GDX fell 2/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled back down with room to go. It appears to headed back to the 200 day moving average at 36. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators remain deeply oversold. Not sure how much longer that condition can go on but trying to predict when it will end is a guessing game. Our recent sell signals from some of our other indicators simply haven't worked. However I'm still in the camp that the SPY December puts will work at some point before option expiration in two weeks. I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend. Asia and Europe finished the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Overall some minor selling ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow fell 248 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the worst scenario. Today may or may not be a near term top but I believe that we are getting close to it. I did place an order for the SPY Decmeber puts overnight but it was not filled. I'm leaving the order out there. If we get a rally off of the employment report it might get filled. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. Gold dropped $22 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX finished flat. Volume was pretty light again. The short term indicators here are above mid-range and trending sideways. Not sure what the next move for the gold shares is so we'll stay on the sidelines here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat and remains short term oversold. The Bollinger bands are now beginning to flatten out. Not sure exactly what to expect from this indicator either. There is still plenty of time left in the December option cycle for a trade. I do think that the SPY puts will work in the remaining timeframe but the entry has to be good. Whether or not I can figure it out remains the question. I do not think that the market will continue to rally for the next two weeks but I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were up last night with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll see how the markets react to the jobs data tomorrow.

The market continues to move higher as the Dow gained 308 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. New all time closing highs for the big three of the Dow, S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ. No overhead resistance. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and stayng that way. I wonder how much longer that this can go on but it is usually longer than you think. The S&P is now up against its upper Bollinger band. I do still want to try the SPY December puts at some point. However it is hard to step in front of the current rally. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates slipped. The XAU fell a point while GDX was barely lower. Volume was extremely light for the gold shares. No interest here despite plenty of geo-political turmoil around the world. Still no GDX trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a little higher despite the rise in stocks which doesn't fit. The last time this occurred there was a drop in the market the follwong day. Getting very close to the lower Bollinger band on the VIX. It also appears that the short term indicators are trying to turn around. Still waiting on Fridays employment report so tomorrow could be a wait and see affair for the market. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

More of the same today as the Dow underperformed and the overall market trended sideways. The most watched index fell 76 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The NASDAQ once again led the way up and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a slight gain and remains short term oversold. I again placed an order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. Seems like we are in a waiting game for the next catalyst on Friday which would be the jobs report. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a little lower and interest rates bumped up. The XAU jumped 4 1/2, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was light. Not sure what's going on here. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to go. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged today. The short term indicators remain oversold however the Bollinger bands are beginning to contract. Trying to remain patient for the next trade which I believe will be the SPY puts. The timing, as always, needs to be spot on. If we continue to trend higher into the close on Thursday then I may try those SPY December puts. However there seems to be plenty of liquidity around for now so that idea is not set in stone. Both Europe and Asia were higher again in the overnight trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Hanging around on a Monday following a long weekend as the Dow was off 128 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. Beginning of a new month and waiting on Fridays employment data. The overall market was positive with the NASDAQ leading the way by far. That is a plus for the bulls. A new all time closing high for the NASDAQ as well. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY December puts overnight but it wasn't filled. Might try again tomorrow. The S&P is both short and medium term overbought. But that doesn't mean it can't stay that way. However we do see some sell signals beginning to show up on some of our other indicators. The SPY put trade idea is not without risk but aren't they all? Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are still at the mid-range level but are trying to turn down. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still moving lower and remains short term oversold. It has remained oversold for a while and that conditon won't last forever. For me, it's another vote on the side of trying the index puts. We'll see. Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.