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Monday, December 30, 2024

Once again the market had a big gap lower to begin the day only to spend the rest of the session trying to make up for lost ground. The Dow fell 418 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower to the zero line. I'm not sure if the line will hold or we are on the verge of collapse. Interesting times. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower and it closed below the 50 day moving average. Only one day left in 2024 before we move on to the new year. The Santa Claus rally has three days left to turn into a rally because early gains in this time period have been wiped out. It is looking more and more like the 3 day light volume rally we recently witnessed was nothing more than a snap back to the broken short term up trend line in the S&P 500. However if things find a way to turn back up here that idea will be negated. It looks like we'll have to let the market tell us which way it wants to go. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was shy of average. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. I'm not considering any gold share trades at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and again finished well of of the highs for the session. The short term indicators have started to turn higher but not with any conviction. The most recent time this occurred it led to lower VIX readings for a couple of weeks which supported stocks. Not sure if we'll see a repeat of that this time around. Europe and Asia were generally lower to begin the week. We'll close out the trading for 2024 tomorrow.

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