Friday, December 13, 2024
We had a gap higher at the open but sellers continue to be in charge as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ had a slight gain and the S&P 500 finished flat. Looks like it is too late for the SPY December puts but we'll see. It has been a mixed picture for stocks lately. Over the past week or so the Dow, New York Composite and the Russell 2000 have dropped back toward their 50 day moving averages. They are short term oversold. Seven days in a row lower for the Dow. However the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just moved sideways. They remains short term overbought. Something has to give soon. Not sure if it will be a rally to even more overbought levels for the NASDAQ and S&P. Or perhaps they will actively join in on the decline that we've seen elsewhere. The fact that the Dow can't even get a bounce from oversold levels is a concern. Gold dropped over forty dollars today. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU fell 3 2/3 and GDX dropped a point. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing down and it is almost back to the 200 day moving average again. Recent volatility in this index makes it hard to trade right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today with a mixed market. The short term indicators here are trending higher but not with conviction. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. We've got the Fed coming in next week along with options expiration so it should be interesting. Short term trades will be the only choice with little time to go in the December option cycle. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the SPY options next week. Europe and Asia wre both lower on Friday with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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