Pageviews past week

Monday, December 16, 2024

Still a mixed picture for stocks as the Dow fell yet again to the tune of 110 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. The overall market did better than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 sporting gains on the day. The gains would of been better but we had a last half hour drop. Eight days in a row lower for the Dow and it is very oversold on a short term basis. There will be a decent bounce here and soon. But we don't know if it will be just an oversold bounce or an actual bottom. The market behavior is even more puzzling that usual right now. Plus we have options expiration week, the Fed on Wednesday and inflation data on expiration Friday to deal with. The trading will have to be nimble if attempted. I'm not sure what to do at this point so I might have to remain on the sidelines. I did favor the SPY puts but now I'm thinking perhaps to try and catch the bounce that is overdue. The trading is never easy. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. GDX has made it back to its 200 day moving average. It is also on the lower Bollinger band. Not all of its short term indicators are oversold. This would be the spot to try the GDX calls but I'm not going to do it. Perhaps going out to the January option cycle would be a better idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. The short term indicators have ramped up with room to go. Not sure what's going on with the VIX. So here we are with 4 days left in the December option cycle. Retail sales out tomorrow which should get things going in the morning. Waiting on the Fed and the expected 1/4 point rate reduction Wednesday. The market reaction to that will be the key for the rest of that session and perhaps longer. I'll reconsider what to do tonight. Asia and Europe were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

No comments: