Friday, December 20, 2024
Finally a bounce as the Dow gained 498 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down and approaching the zero line. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. The inflation data came in lighter than expected and traders breathed a sigh of relief. The question now is this just a snap back to the up trend line just violated in the S&P 500 before we move lower or not? I'm inclined to believe that we've seen the worst for this move down as some of our technical indicators are at levels associated with bottoms. That doesn't mean we won't get some backing and filling or even a retest of the recent lows. However the close proximity to the zero line on the summation index is a concern. I do think that it will hold up this time around and an unraveling of the market is not going to happen. I could be wrong. We've got a holiday week on tap and things should settle down. The Santa Claus rally will also be due. The market will have a say in whether our projections are correct as time moves on. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume here was good. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and is now back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is another indicator that is pointing to the decline being over as it doesn't stay overbought for long. My guess is that we will see higher prices or at least sideways price action for stock prices in the near term. Plenty of things to look at over the weekend but I'll probably wait until next year for the next trade. Holiday mode approaching. It has been quite a volatile week. Europe and Asia were slightly lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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