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Wednesday, December 18, 2024

The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't care and got clobbered. The Dow fell over a thousand points on heavy volume. 1123 points was the final total. The advance/declines were 13 to 1 negative. The summation index is falling lower. We knew that there was something fishy going on but we didn't know how much it would stink. Ten days in a row now negative on the Dow and I cannot remember that happening in my trading life. The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line from August and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving down with room to go. Not yet short term oversold but it appears that's where it is headed. I was still looking for an oversold bounce that never came. When the S&P reached its up trend line, I purchased some of the December calls. That was another mistake as the market was in free fall which I did not acknowledge even though it was staring me right in the face. Realizing that this trade was a mistake, I got out but not before incurring yet another loss. A negative 75% on the trade but thankfully there wasn't a lot of money involved. The S&P 500 shed over 175 points. The NASDAQ dropped 3 1/2%. They are catching up with the other falling indices that are already oversold and staying that way. The original idea of the SPY puts was a valid one. Gold lost over fifty bucks. The US dollar jumped up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 6 3/4, while GDX lost 1 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is short term oversold and staying that way. The longer term up trend line here comes in at 30 and that's much lower from here. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated once again as I could not perform properly when it came to todays trade. Sitting on the sidelines or going with the puts was the correct path. The short term trades seem to be my downfall so maybe I will have to eliminate them in the coming new year. The warning signs that something different was going on in the market was there but I failed to heed the signals. The continued negative breadth finally came to fruition. The VIX had a huge move higher and closed above 27. Short term overbought on the VIX now. Above the 20 level and that will lead to more volatility. I certainly did not see that coming. Two days left in the December option cycle and inflation data out on Friday. I'll just sit back and observe at this point. Asia was mixed and Europe flat overnight. I'd expect some selling to occur overseas tonight. Interesting times.

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