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Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Some weakness today as the Dow fell 67 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has now rolled over to the downside.  Any more solid weakness here and I'd say the trend is going to change.  For now I'm still giving the bullish scenario the benefit of the doubt.  The volume here has been weak, so there is no downside momentum just yet.  Perhaps there is an absence of buyers but that has yet to be proven as well.  Small stocks and the overall market weaker than the Dow and that isn't bullish.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and came off of lower levels during the session again.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABx, GG and NEM had fractional gains on light volume.  Running in place seems to be the theme for the gold shares lately.  I still want to buy some April or May calls here.  Short term oversold for the gold share indices.  So perhaps this is the time to purchase some calls.  I'm still going to give it some more time though.  March is generally not a good month for the price of gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Still waiting for new all time highs on the Dow.  However the technicals on the short term are starting to roll over for the stock indexes.  I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment.  It's probably a good idea to be extra careful here.  We are closer to a top than to a bottom.  Gold has been holding up pretty good here but hasn't been able to get a decent close above the $1350 level.  The gold shares remain in a sideways channel.  Getting long some gold share calls is still my main hypothesis at the moment.  Timing is key.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

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