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Thursday, March 13, 2014

The Dow took a hit today as the most watched index dropped 231 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative though.  Negative headlines on the Ukraine and China are the excuse.  I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong, as new all time highs don't appear to be coming.  The summation index is heading lower and I'll take my cues from there.  We are pretty short term oversold now for the stock indexes.  However the daily technicals have a way to go to be completely oversold.  The small stocks were pretty negative today as well.  Look for lower prices going forward now.  GE fell 3/8 and the volume picked up.  Below the 50 day moving average again for GE.  The daily candlestick chart looks pretty bearish here now.  Gold held steady as the futures here were up a buck or so.  The US dollar was flat on the session as well but came back from its lows.  The XAU gained 2 1/2 and has broken out of the consolidation range to the upside.  ABX and NEM added 1/2, while GG rose 3/4.  My order for the ABX calls yesterday was not filled.  The gold shares are still attracting capital and it appears that I have missed this move higher.  The short term technicals here have turned higher.  Obviously I should have gotten the calls on Monday or Tuesday when the indicators were oversold.  I thought we would see more weakness but we did not.  I'm expecting a high PPI number tomorrow and that should move gold and the gold shares even higher.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated for missing out on this gold share rally.  There is nobody to blame but myself.  But you have to keep moving in this game.  There are potential megaphone patterns on some of the stock indices and that particular pattern is very bearish.  Hasn't happened yet but the chance for a lot more downside is out there.  I would not be surprised for a near term bounce in the next couple of days but the trend is now for lower prices.  I don't think that the problems in the Ukraine will amount to much but I'm just guessing on that.  The recent breakdown in copper should have been more of a clue for the stock market direction.  I've seen that happen before.  Gold is on the move higher once again.  My hope here is that my prognosis for the final wave of a five wave move higher is in progress now.  That would give me a chance to try the gold share call trade at lower prices once a corrective move lower begins in gold.  Hasn't happened yet and I could be wrong in the wave count.  The technicals for gold are overbought though.  However we are about to get the bullish cross of the 50 day moving average through the 200 day moving average to the upside.  It happened today for the XAU.  So perhaps the gold shares will go higher than I think.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there.

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