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Friday, March 07, 2014

We got the employment report today but it really didn't move the markets as expected.  After an initial small gyration the volatility I expected did not occur.  The Dow rose 30 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks were negative on the session.  The jobs numbers were a bit higher than anticipated.  The stock indices remain overbought and staying there.  We are still overdue for some pullback and it still isn't happening.  The summation index is moving higher and the trend remains up.  GE lost a dime and the volume was light.  The short term technicals are beginning to roll over here.  Gold fell over $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 2 1/2.  ABX off 1/2, GG shed 3/4 and NEM fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Not a real bad day for the gold shares.  I still like this group for the April or May calls.  The short term technicals here have rolled over.  Perhaps an opportunity will present itself next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two weeks left in the March option cycle.  We rallied this week on lighter volume and that is not a positive.  The short and medium term technical picture for the stock indexes remains very overbought.  Although the trend is up I do not advise chasing things here.  We are obviously closer to some kind of top than to some kind of bottom.  Perhaps things can hold up through the expiration.  Gold seems to continue to find a bid despite bearish news.  That is encouraging for the bulls.  We are still in a negative seasonality period though.  The Bollinger bands on the gold shares are starting to get closer together.  That implies some kind of price move in the near future.  As always the key question is which way?  It feels like a consolidation here for the gold shares before we head higher but that's a guess as usual.  The markets always go where they want.  My thinking at the moment is to go out to the May option cycle for the calls here.  We'll see.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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