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Wednesday, March 19, 2014

An interesting trading session as the Dow fell 114 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The stock indices are trying to figure out what to do here.  Volatility increased after the Fed announcement.  The Fed said nothing that was unexpected but the market dropped anyway.  Not sure what to make of that.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through downside tomorrow.  I'd have to say things are mixed at the moment and trading should be done accordingly.  Really no clear signal one way or the other for now.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was OK.  No clear idea of what to do here either in my mind.  Sidelines for now.  Gold took it on the chin as the futures dropped $17 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar had a strong session but we knew the Fed was going to reign in the stimulus ahead of time.  A strong dollar will not be supportive for gold.  The XAU lost 3 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were off from 3/4 to 7/8.  Volume picked up to the downside, which is not a good sign there.  I still am interested in the May ABX calls but obviously there is no hurry to purchase.  We'll have to let the market tell us how long and how far this decline will last.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure exactly which way the stock indexes will go here.  When in doubt, stay out is the time tested advice for now.  The Fed did not say anything that the market wasn't expecting and we fell off anyway.  Perhaps we are heading for some sideways price action.  Still above the 50 day moving average for the major stock indices.  Sometimes you just have to be patient.  It looks like the 5 wave up pattern in gold was correct.  The next technical expectation would be an ABC move lower.  We are in the A part of that now.  Might take a couple of weeks for this to play out.  Or maybe gold just heads much lower from here.  Trend line support is at $1320.  GDX has already broken trend line support.  I'll be keeping an eye on things.  Perhaps March will live up to its reputation as the historically weak period for gold after all.  We'll watch the overnight action and take it from there.

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