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Monday, March 24, 2014

A negative start to the week as the Dow fell 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The Dow doesn't really tell the story as the overall market was very much weaker.  The small stocks got crushed and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  The summation index is heading lower.  No real news except perhaps a weak report out of China.  The short term technicals have rolled over for the stock indices.  We did finish off of the lows though.  However it appears like lower prices are coming for the near term.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was about average.  Not much to say about this issue for now.  Hovering around the 50 day moving average.  Gold continues to drop, the futures fell $25.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU lost 4 1/2.  ABX off 7/8, GG down 1 1/8 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume picked up to the downside.  Oversold on the technicals for the gold shares and their indices.  We'll probably stay oversold as the tone for gold has changed to bearish.  Up trend lines here have been broken.  I'm still looking at the May ABX calls though.  But gold and the gold shares look like they are in some sort of free fall at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not really a positive tone for the stock indexes to start off the week.  With the summation index heading lower it is probably a time to be cautious.  The option premiums are expensive since we just rolled over to the April cycle.  I don't have any OEX trades in mind right now.  Gold was due for a rest and we are getting a lot more than that now.  I see support for the precious metal at around $1280.  It has been quite a steep drop for the gold shares in the past week and a half.  It looks like the catch a falling knife scenario.  There is no rush for me to purchase here as I would ideally like to wait until at least next week for the May calls.  And this idea could be completely wrong as the fundamentals for gold are not bullish in my opinion right now.  However short term technically we are there for a buy unless the indicators remain oversold.  That is what I think will happen, so patience is required for now.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.

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