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Monday, August 06, 2007

The Dow soared 286 points today on very heavy volume. We broke through the short term down trend line. That's a good sign for the bulls. However the advance/declines were only slightly positive. That's not really what you want to see to get bullish. Today was good but it was probably a lot of short covering before the Fed. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rose along with the Dow and that is a positive. The 200 day moving average held for the OEX. There are 2 weeks left in this option cycle. We will get a retest of the lows I believe and that could be the next trade. However the volatility is just so extreme there is nothing wrong with waiting it out until we return to a more orderly market. Preservation of capital. Mitigation of risk. These are things to keep in mind. Gold was down a bit over a buck today. The XAU sold off pretty good but came back to be down only 2 points. ABX and NEM both were down pretty good early and came back too. However with the market in a huge rally, up almost 300 points, you would have liked to see the gold shares participate. I would like to get long gold again at some point. GE had a stellar day, up a buck on heavy volume. Could today be that day that turns things around? Maybe. Mentally, I got a good nights sleep. I haven't got a good signal one way or the other here. Today was huge but is it the beginning of a new bull market? Again, the volatility is so high that nothing can be certain. Of course we were oversold but now are we overbought? When in doubt, stay out. Will there be better circumstances down the road? Of course. Will there be some money to be made here? Yes, but it won't be easy.

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