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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

The Dow dropped 30 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive and the overall market was higher. We are about to be short term overbought if not already there. It hasn't happened for a while. I don't think that a large decline is imminent but who knows. I really think that the next OEX trade is a short from the daily down trend line but we are not there yet. But I'd expect some weakness here soon. Gold was little changed again and the XAU rose about a point. ABX was up around 30 cents on light volume. I sold the calls I had for a 40% profit. They could move higher from here of course but if the overall market gets weak as I expect it will take the gold shares with it. I'll look to buy the calls again on a dip. I still think that trade has potential for the next few weeks. I could be wrong but it still appears to be a buy signal for the gold shares. GE was up a touch on average volume. Perhaps will get long on a pullback to the weekly up trend line. It all depends. The McClellan oscillator should turn positive today for the first time in weeks. The summation index also should be turning as well. Regardless, I expect the decline to continue unless we break through the down trend lines in the indices. That would change things. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Perhaps was a bit early on my exit from the latest trade but I do believe there will be another entry point. I would really like to see things slow down here for a couple of weeks but the market will do what it does. I'll just have to be prepared for anything and take it from there.

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