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Tuesday, March 06, 2007

We finally got a bounce today with the Dow up 157 points on extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I have picked out some targets for the retracement and will buy some puts when we hit them. I'm not sure how far and how long we will bounce. The employment report is out on Friday. I probably want to own some puts before then. But we'll see. It could very well end up being an up week and then down from there. I am pretty sure that I want to get some puts though. There usually is a test of the low. So I have an idea of what I'd like to do here. Gold rallied $7 and the XAU was up 4 points. The volume in the gold shares was lighter than it's been but it was respectable. ABX was up a half and the options I wanted barely moved. I still have a GTC order in there but adjusted it lower again. It may take some time to build a bottom here in gold or perhaps it will even just keep heading lower. There is an uptrend line in gold itself that is still intact so I'm going to lean towards the calls until that breaks. Mentally I'm doing fine, just trying to be patient here. You never really know what the markets will do. You have to keep adjusting as you go along. I don't think the decline is over but it very may well be. So you've got to take all things into consideration. I'll keep the retracements I have in mind and short it from there. If it proves wrong, I will have to have stop-loss orders in place. Inflation data come out next week at the end of the week. I would like to be short before those numbers come out also. But that's next week...

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