It was a day of listless trading as the Dow gained 33 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. No real news to speak of today. It's like the market took a day to catch its breath. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so I'm guessing things could go either way here. I did purchase soem SPY October puts today. They are at break even. The stop loss order is already in for this trade. We'll see how things go next week. Gold was up four bucks on the December futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Light volume seemed to be the theme of the day as the market now decides where to go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are oversold but not completely. The VIX is implying higher stock prices for now which is why trying the SPY puts here may not be such a good idea. However I do not think that the market is going straight up to new all time highs here. I'm looking for a retest of the recent lows of Monday. We'll see. Plenty of work to do and charts to go over this weekend. We've got the end of the month on tap for next week as well. Europe was lower and Asia as well with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Quite a rally today as the Dow climbed 506 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was up over 600 but we faded in the last two hours. We've gone through the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 and more than filled the gap formed on Monday. All Fibanocci retracement levels have been passed. I did place an overnight order for some SPY October puts and it was never filled even with todays huge gains. I'm leaving it out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. It appears that the decline is over but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows. Or not. Plenty to ponder here at the moment. Gold lost twenty bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. Interest rates were up though. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX was off almost 2/3. Volume was average. I'm back to the sidelines with regards to a GDX call trade. We've broken the 30 level there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX plummeted below the 20 level today and the 200 day moving average. It seems to be forecasting higher stock prices ahead. Not yet oversold here. I think if we close below the 50 day moving average in the VIX tomorrow we can say the decline is over for now. Perhaps I should simply be patient to try the SPY October puts later here or just forget about that trade and look elsewhere. I'll think it over tonight. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out a wild and volatile week tomorrow.

A rally sprang up today as the Dow gained 338 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is once again trying to turn around. Good news came out of China as the holiday there came to a close. The Fed had no surprises. The question now is if the decline is over or just on pause. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up but not decidedly so. I'm still favoring the SPY October puts but that could be the wrong idea. I am probably going to put in an open order for some overnight though. A move back up to the 50 day moving average at 441 or so on the SPY would be the ideal scenario. A short term down trend line comes into play a bit higher than there as well. Plus that would also fill the gap from Monday too. However if we just go up from here, the decline is likely over. Gold was off around $10 on the December futures. Interest rates were mixed, while the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on better than average volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped but remains above the 20 level and above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over but are not close to being oversold again. The VIX is also showing signs that the decline could be over but nothing is set in stone just yet. It would be great to see a run to 441 on the SPY tomorrow and that would be the time to try the puts. The market rarely cooperates. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see if we get some follow through buying tomorrow.

Back and forth again today as the Dow lost 50 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ finished in the green. Just waiting on the Fed now as yesterdays decline is in the rear view mirror. The S&P remains short term oversold. If we can snap back to the 440 level on the SPY, I may try the October puts. There is a huge gap to fill in the daily chart. However you can also make the case that the market will simply continue to stay oversold and decline from here. Reaction to what the Fed has to say will be key in the short term. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures again today. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well and dropped from their highs of the session. Volume was average. I'm guessing things will get moving with the Fed tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but not as much as it could have been. Remaining overbought on the short term technical indicators here. Staying well above the 20 level and volatility could be here to stay for a while. I'm hoping to get some kind of chance for the SPY October puts but we finished well off of the highs for todays session and that's not a good sign for the bulls. At this point we'll simply wait and see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Asia was mixed with some markets still on holiday. Europe was higher. We'll see what Wednesday and the Fed brings.

The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 614 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as the Dow was off close to a thousand points before we got a final hour bounce. There was a huge gap down at the open and things just got worse from there. We are short term oversold on the S&P and staying that way. That is never a good sign. The excuse for todays decline is a Chinese real estate company about to go under. But we'll stick with the technicals as always. I've got support for the S&P 500 at 4200 and if that doesn't hold 4000. So I think we've still got plenty of downside work to do. There's also an outside chance crash possibility as the summation index is heading down to the zero line. I still favor the SPY October puts but let's see some kind of bounce to try those. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures in a flight to safety. The US dollar finished little changed, while interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/3 and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was good. I'm back to looking at the gold shares here on the safety and fear factor that we now see in the marketplace. I did look at the GDX October calls but the premiums were pretty pricey. I'll consider this idea again tomorrow. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and would have closed even higher had we not gotten the final hour push up. It is overbought on the short term indicators so a drop in the VIX would not be a surprise. However it's well above the 20 level and that implies more volatility to come as long as things stay that way. The 200 day moving average is also at 20. The ideal scenario would be a move back to 20 in order to purchase the SPY October calls and then we'd go from there. The market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We've still got the Fed to deal with on Wednesday but that may take a back seat to the China woes. The fact that the market over there is closed again tomorrow adds to the uncertainty of what is about to happen. Interesting times. Europe and Asia sold off hard too. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Down we went on expiring options Friday as the Dow fell 166 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. My SPY September calls got crushed for a 90% loss. Bad entry, poor management and then got greedy when I had a chance to break even. That's the textbook way not to trade. I didn't use a stop loss order this time around since the price movement is rather volatile during expiration week. The rationale there is that you don't want to be stopped out when the trade has a chance to work. Like all trades win or lose, this one has to be forgotten and you've got to move on. I still favor the SPY October puts going forward but will have to see another bounce in order to purchase. Perhaps some time next week. Make no mistake, the trend is down for stocks. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 did worse than the Dow today. The S&P does remain short term oversold here. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar continued higher as did US interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was better than average. Looking at the GDX January calls now but in no rush to purchase. The fundamentals for gold here are not positive in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the huge loss in the SPY trade this week. The VIX spiked up today and closed above the 200 day moving average and the inportant level of 20. The short term indicators also remain overbought. To me this spells trouble going forward for equity prices. If the VIX stays above 20, the decline could get severe. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to definately keep an eye on. Here is another thing to keep in mind. The bounce we got on Wednesday came out of nowhere and had zero follow through. That is a classic sign of a downward trending market. Rallies can be continued to be sold until that changes. We will have to wait for everyone to turn bearish before the market begins to move up again. Asia was higher and Europe lower to close out the week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to prepare for next week. We'll have the Fed to deal with on Wednesday. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of back and forth as the Dow fell 63 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. We had an early sell off as the Dow was down over 250 points. The market managed to make its way back and the NASDAQ finished with a slight gain. My SPY September calls didn't fare as well, they are now solid losers that should have been sold on the close yesterday. Only one day left to go here and it will take a rally of a couple hundred points to bring these back now. It looks like the SPY will not finish above the 450 level and the market makers will rejoice. Gold got hammered today as the futures fell forty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. I am no longer considering the GDX October calls. I'll consider the January calls here if we break below the 30 level for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that makes sense considering how much prices moved around. Not sure what the techncial indicators on the VIX are pointing to now. They are mid-range. Also not sure what to expect with option expiration on tap for tomorrow. Higher prices will cut my loss in the SPY call trade while lower prices will most likely wipe it out. The entry timing on this trade was off and then I got greedy after yesterdays rise. Greed kills. Europe was slightly higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll close out the expiration trading week tomorrow.

Today we got the bounce as the Dow gained 236 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The SPY September calls that I have made it all the way back to break even so I'll hold them until the retail sales report tomorrow morning. If we get some follow through buying they might actually turn a small profit. Plenty of risk with just a couple of days to go though. No news to account for todays gains, just the technical nature of the market in my opinion. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold dropped over ten bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked up and the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again despite the drop in gold itself. That's usually a positive. Volume was very light so I don't know how much you can read in to the price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators pointing down here still imply higher stock prices going forward. My guess is that the SPY option market makers would like the index to finish around 450 on the week for the best possible outcome for them. That's how the volume stacks up there right now. I don't think that we'll get above 450 by the close on Friday. Again, that's a guess on my part. We'll focus on what happens at the open tomorrow and hopefully I can get out of the current trade unscathed. Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing lower as the Dow dropped 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is strying to turn down. No buyers in sight as any attempt at a rally is being met with selling. Short term oversold and now medium term as well. I did purchase some SPY September calls this morning and they are of course losers as the market keeps going down. This trade is already in the cut the loss situation. When the normal technical patterns don't work, you know that we're in for something different. I'll be getting out of this trade most likely tomorrow and keeping an eye on the SPY October puts. Gold was up a few bucks on the weak inflation data. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. I'm still considering the GDX October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today and finished about hwere it started. It still closed below its 200 day moving average. Overbought in the short term here for the VIX and that would imply that we should see some stock gains. However that is what it implied on the close yesterday as well. Overdue for some kind of sustained bounce in stocks for at least a session but it doesn't appear to be happening. A lot of the daily index charts are looking pretty negative as well. Three days left in the September option cycle. Retail sales data on Thursday could be a market mover. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a back and forth session to begin the week as an early bounce faded and then came back. The Dow gained 261 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was the overall leader today as the S&P wasn't as strong and the NASDAQ finished in the red. The market opened very strong and then gave it all back only to rise again in the final hour. An interesting session to say the least. I placed a few orders for the SPY September calls, changing my mind several times. None of them were filled. I might try again tomorrow if there is weakness on the open but I've probably missed this trade. The market action is anything but positive and we may have seen the bounce I was looking for already today. The SPY October puts are now on my radar. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. Perhaps the October calls here should be taken a look at again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. I'm also not sure whether I want to risk putting on a trade with only 4 days left in the September option cycle. The VIX bounced around as well and finally closed lower on the session. It's back below the 200 day moving average. Some of its short term indicators have rolled over. It seems to be implying that higher stock prices are in the cards for the near term. If so I've lost my chance for the SPY call trade which had a pretty good set up. But the short term trades are not my best efforts usually. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data due out tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. Down every day this week and 5 days in a row for the Dow. Any weakness on Monday can be bought for a bounce trade and that's what I'll be looking to do. I did place a late order for the SPY September calls but it wasn't filled. If we get some selling on Monday morning, I'll be purchasing the calls. Once the bounce is complete next week I'll be looking to trade the SPY puts. Rallies are being sold now as the market has changed from buying the dips. We are already short term oversold in the Dow. Buying the SPY calls on Monday and selling them on Tuesday is not out of the question. If the market simply takes off to the upside Monday morning we'll count this as another missed idea. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. Getting to short term oversold for GDX but not quite there yet. But I am keeping in mind that if the market takes a dramatic fall in the coming weeks it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above the 20 level today and closed above its 200 day moving average. In recent months when the VIX has gotten above the 200 day it has quickly moved back down below it. I'm counting on that occurring again now for the SPY bounce trade. Another one of my reliable S&P 500 technical indicators is also signaling a short term buy. It will be risky with only a week to go in the September option cycle. Not to mention that the trend has turned to downward for stocks. That said, I would certainly like to give it a go on Monday. I'll be checking the charts this weekend to double check my work. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Still heading lower as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about even though. The summation index is tracking sideways. Any buying is being met with selling as the tone of the market has changed. Today the market was higher early on only to close on the lows of the day. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. If we get a bounce in stocks the next couple of sessions, I'd be willing to try the SPY September puts on Tuesday of next week. If we head lower tomorrow, I'd be willing to try the SPY September calls on weakness Monday. That is how I'm thinking thngs will shape up here in the very short term. Looking further out there, I'm considering the SPY October puts when more of the time premium in them expires. The price action in the S&P has been sloppy lately. However the NASDAQ has held up rather well and I don't see any huge moves lower unless we start to see more weakness there. Gold was up five bucks. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was average. Still waiting for GDX to get oversold, not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the indicators here have now turned up. The VIX now appears to be saying that move selling is to come. I don't disagree with that but the timing is key. Could things fall apart tomorrow, yes there is that possibility. I guess at this stage I'm hoping that they don't because I'd like to get on board and profit from a drop. Perhaps early this morning was the opportunity that I was looking for but we'll only know that after the fact. So we'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll close out the short trading week tomorrow.

Another downer as the Dow fell 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Short term oversold on the Dow but not the rest of the major indices. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. I'd still like to try the September SPY puts but it may have to wait until next week. The decline that we've seen in the past few days certainly hasn't been robust. It may be setting up for a return to new all time highs before expiration. That's just a guess on my part. Inflation data on Friday could be a key. Gold was off about five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Still waiting on GDX to get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed lower after spiking up early. That doesn't fit with a down day in the market but perhaps it's signaling a return to the rally for stocks. Still short term oversold here though. Running out of time for the September option cycle but I don't want to force things here. I also don't usually do too well with the short term ideas. So we'll see. The market was down today and SPY puts still lost value as time premium is getting sucked out. That's a tough game to play. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Europe and Asia were lower but Japan bucked the trend. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow took a hit today as the most watched index fell 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. The overall market did much better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. Another new all time high there. I'm still interested in the SPY September puts but would need to see some upside before a purchase. It might be too late. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we do get inflation numbers on Friday. Running out of time in the September option cycle. Timing will have to spot on for an option trade to be successful. Gold dropped almost thirty bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 3 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. Might try the GDX October calls if and when GDX gets short term oversold again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Todays move in the VIX could simply be a one day wonder but I'll be watching what happens from here. The October SPY puts have too much time premium built in them now to make a trade there. I really do think that the rally in stocks that began when the coronavirus started needs to take a break. We are in a seasonal time period to allow that to happen. Whether or not it does, we'll know in the coming weeks. Europe was lower and Asia higher last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a mixed session after a weaker than expected jobs report as the Dow fell 74 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ posted a gain and the S&P 500 was only slightly lower. The S&P remains short term overbought and I'm still interested in the SPY September puts if we get some strength early next week. The Fed easy money policy won't be changed after todays weak numbers and that provides a floor for stocks at the moment. Eventually that will change. Gold rallied on the weaker employment report as the futures gained twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower but interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good as it has been on the way up. The gold share calls remain overbought but if they do get back to oversold, I'll try the GDX October calls. The volume on the rise here says that this should be a longer lasting move higher for the gold shares. However I am not going to chase it here but that may not be the correct choice. Nonetheless to me the better course of action is to wait for an oversold condition and try the calls then. If the gold shares simply continue higher and remain overbought then so be it. The ideal entry point has already been missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today and remains oversold. Todays light volume was no surprise given the last holiday weekend of summer. Things should get back to normal on Tuesday. There's not much left to do now except go over the charts on a long weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher today for the Dow as it rose 131 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. New highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Both remain short term overbought. No open orders out there for me for now. I'm going to let the employment data play out as it will and look to get some SPY September puts next week. That's teh game plan for now. Gold finished little changed again as it decides which way to go. The US dollar was weaker and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Most likely tomorrows jobs report will provide the excuse for whichever way gold goes from here. Could go either way in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which doesn't fit an up market. Not sure what that means but as long as it stays below the 50 day moving average it should be constructive for stocks. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report and take it from there. I'm pretty sure that I'll be waiting until next week to put on the next trade. All the players should be back at their desks by then. There will only be nine days left in the September option cycle on Tuesday as the Labor day holiday weekend is upon us. I suspect traders will be leaving early tomorrow. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week and the unofficial end of summer trading tomorrow.

We had a downside reversal day for the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower. It fell 48 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were positive. The NASDAQ closed at a new all time high. As long as the small stocks lead the way, the trend remains up. I canceled my open order for the SPY September puts. I still like this idea but the timing must be correct. At this point I'm probably going to wait until early next week to try again. But we'll see. Still short term overbought for the S&P although it did drop in the final two hours today. Gold finished flat on the session. Both interest rates and the US dollar were slightly lower. The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 1/4. Volume was light. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold. Not getting any feel for where the VIX is going from here. I think at this point waiting for the jobs report on Friday and the market reaction to it is the prudent course to take. If the market conitnues higher here, I'll consider the SPY September puts after Labor day. That's my best guess at the moment. We did not see as much money flow into stocks today as I expected since we had a late sell off. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Moving lower today as the Dow fell 40 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending higher but not with any gusto. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had slight losses as well to end the month of August. I did try the SPY September put trade again but wasn't filled. I've adjusted the order and I'm leaving it out there. I'm expecting some positive money flows to begin September tomorrow, so perhaps this order will get filled. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was up $4 on the futures. Interest rates rose slightly, while the US dollar was little changed but did come up from the lows of the session. The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX was back up 3/8. Volume was average. Volume is now favoring the advances for the gold shares and that is bullish. I did cancel my open order for the GDX October calls. GDX is approaching short term overbought and I will have to wait until it gets back to oversold before trying this idea again. It appears that I've missed whatever move higher we've seen for the gold shares lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today but it remains short term oversold. I'm not getting a good feel for what the VIX is implying here but it does remain below its 50 day moving average. August was another good month for stock that have basically gone straight up since The lows seen at the conronavirus outbreak. This certainly cannot go on forever and the end will not be pretty. Try to keep that in mind. That said, the market goes where it wants and can remain overbought for longer than anybody thinks. The easy money from the Fed continues. We'll see how September gets going tomorrow. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still trending up but not with a lot of conviction. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both set new all time highs today, with the NASDAQ leading the way. I did place an order overnight for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled. I might try this again tomorrow. The S&P remains short term overbought and the breadth today was not a plus. I'll go over things again tonight and then decide. Gold fell seven bucks on the futures. Rates were lower and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU lost 2/14, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX October calls is still out there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold but not extremely so. It appears to be implying higher prices to come. We've got the end of the month coming up tomorrow. I'm not sure how that will skew prices. Plenty of economic data due out this week, with the employment report on Friday very likely the most watched. But it is also the final week of summer so not all of the players have returned. Perhaps patience is the best plan for now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A broad move higher today as the Dow gained 242 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trying to move up. The Fed tone at the Jackson Hole summit was mild and the market took off to the upside. The NASDAQ led the way and arrives at a new all time high. Ditto for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. My SPY September put trade went from a winner to a loser overnight. I decided to simply sell out and take the loss rather than hold on at this point. It was a 25% loser. I still don't trust this light volume move higher and may try this idea again a a different strike price next week. Or I may wait until after Labor Day when all the players have returned. Gold liked what it heard today as well with the futures gaining $25. Interest rates moved lower as did the US dollar. The XAU was up 5 1/3, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was heavy which implies that this move higher in the gold shares is for real. My open order for the GDX October calls is still out there but it will not get filled after todays strong advance. I'll probably cancel it on Monday. It's looking like a missed opportunity for the gold share calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a strong move lower which fits with the rally we saw in stocks today. Yesterdays move up in the VIX now looks like a head fake. The S&P continues to hug its upper Bollinger band. I'm not sure how long that can last. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and figure out what to do from here. Perhaps stepping aside for a week is the prudent game plan. We'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 192 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 is still overbought and the indicators have now rolled over. I'm not exactly sure if this is the beginning of an actual decline but there is a potential negative divergence on the daily RSI. My SPY September puts are showing a small profit. We'll see if we get any follow through downside market action tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well. Interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators have turned back up. It does remain below the 20 level though. Tomorrow could be important here because if the market does sell off again, the VIX could get above 20 and imply more volatility. That would be fine with me since I'm already in the SPY put trade. However things could just as easily turn the other way, with the VIX moving lower and stock prices moving up again. The reaction to what comes out of the virtual Jackson Hole summit will be the market mover in my mind for tomorrow. It will be interesting to say the least. There's also some inflation data due out. Europe and Asia were lower overngiht. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The drift higher continues as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has turned around and is now moving up. I went ahead and adjusted my order for the SPY September puts and it was filled. It is showing a slight loss. Short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the S&P. I'm not exactly sure this trade will work since the market can stay overbought for extended periods of time. The S&P 500 also set a new all time high today and there is no overhead resistance. But I did feel like taking the chance here ahead of the Jackson Hole virtual gab fest and some inflation data due out on Friday. The light volume on this move higher is not a positive in my mind as well. I plan on holding this position for a while unless we get a blow off to the upside from here. Gold fell eight bucks on the futures. Interest rates rose again and the US dollar was just a touch lower. The XAU lost 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX October calls although I am thinking about canceling it. It is looking more like Mondays positive price action was a dead cat bounce. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the rise in stocks. Not completely oversold on the indicators here, so the market has the potential to just keep going up. Of course that would ruin the SPY put trade that I just entered but you have to be aware of all the possible scenarios. So the trade is on and we'll see where it goes from here. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bit higher today as the Dow was up 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is in the process of moving back up. The market had better gains during the day but sold off in the final half hour. Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. My open order for the SPY September puts remains out there. We are getting to short term overbought for the S&P. I might just get the puts tomorrow because I'd like to own them ahead of the Feds Jackson Hole summit. Premiums remain high though and there's a chance we just continue on higher from here as well. There is no overhead resistance. Gold finished little changed on the day as did the US dollar. Interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX finished unchanged. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold implying that there's more room to go to the upside near term. I'm leaving my order for the GDX October calls out there but it will take a decline of a point or so to see it get filled. I'm not in a hurry on this idea unlike the SPY puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed today and remains below its 50 day moving average. We are nearing the end of summer and there's also a possibility that things slow down before the beginning of September as players take their final summer flings. The Fed chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting virtually on Friday but we can only guess at what will be said there. My thinking right now is to get short any strength tomorrow even if the premiums cost more than I'd like to pay. I guess I'm still a believer in a decent decline for the September option cycle. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Quite a rally to begin the trading week as the Dow gained 215 points on light volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. It closed at a new all time high. The S&P 500 had a new intra-day high. The short term technical indicators there are now moving up. My prognosis for an extended decline to begin here appears to be wrong. I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled. I've left it out there but will reconsider what to do overnight. The bounce back form last weeks decline is certainly more than I though it would be. But the volume is pretty light and I never trust light volume rallies. Gold was up today as well as the futures rose over twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU climbed 5 1/2, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was good to the upside. Perhaps the rally here for the gold shares has started. My open order for the GDX October calls wasn't filled and remains out there as well. GDX remains short term oversold despite todays nice gain. The train could be leaving the station for the gold shares right now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. Not completely oversold here yet. Ther question for the market now is, was that it for the decline? Is it now off to the races with the NASDAQ leading the way? I've got to say that it really seems like that may be the case. The major stock indices have turned around quickly and are not yet overbought. The NASDAQ has pierced its upper Bollinger band but that doesn't mean it can't go higher. I'll have to go over the charts again tonight and try to figure out what to do. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see if we get any upside follow through on Tuesday.

Bouncing back to close out the week as the Dow gained 226 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down. An oversold bounce or the beginning of a new leg up to all time highs? I'm going with the former for now as I do believe a long awaited decline in stocks has begun. The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the S&P though. I'm looking at the SPY September puts and will most likely be getting some next week. Could I be wrong here? Of course but we'll have to see how things pan out as we move forward. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. Interest rates were basically unchanged while the US dollar was bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My open order for the GDX October calls remains out there. GDX remains both short and medium term oversold. It is at its lower Bollinger band on both the daily and weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX had a steep drop today and is back below the important level of 20. The short term indicators here have rolled over as well. The VIX seems to be saying that the decline is over but that is just my interpretation of the indicator. Markets go where they want. I'll be keeping an eye on the VIX as usual. The McClellan oscillator reached a very oversold reading yesterday so the price action today wasn't something unexpected. If the oscillator simply continues to go up from here and gets back into positive territory, my negative thesis of what's about to take place will be wrong. This is another indicator that we'll be keeping a close eye on. We're rolling into the September options cycle and it has the usual four week duration. We'll see what type of opportunities await. Asia lower and Europe higher to close out the week. We'll check the charts over the weekend and come up with next weeks game plan. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow continued lower today as it lost 66 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 posted small gains today. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce in the coming days and that should be the opportunity to get some of the SPY September puts. We've got the August option expiration tomorrow so we'll have to see how that goes. The short term technical indicators or the S&P have moved into oversold territory. Not completely oversold but in an area that has held the declines in place before. We also touched the lower Bollinger band today for the S&P. So perhaps the decline is done for now but I do expect it to resume shortly. Gold lost $7 today and the US dollar continued its climb. Interest rates were lower. The XAU dropped 2 3/4, while GDX fell 1/2. Volume was average. GDX has made it to the 31 support level but I don't think it will hold at this rate. The gold shares have been very weak lately. I adjusted my open order for the GDX October calls and went out to a lower strike price. Even with doing this, I'm not sure this is a trade that will work out positively at this point. But I will take a chance if it gets filled. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. So the idea and question is if not now, when? Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX almost made it up to the 25 level today and finished with just a small gain as the market came back from the decline at the open. Overbought here now and the short term indicators appear to be starting to roll over. The question is has volatility returned to stay? I think so as I'm looking for much lower stock prices going forward. If the VIX stays above the 20 level we will certainly see more decline in prices. For now we'll let Friday pass and look to but some SPY puts next week on any strength. Europe and Asia were lower as the pullback from stocks is heading around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 382 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The day was a drift for much of the session with the market finally falling apart in the final hour. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving lower. I think that we have seen the highs in this index for now. I'm not sure how low we're going but rallies can be shorted from here on out in my opinion. I did not get any SPY August puts this morning or afternoon as the little time remaining in the August contract kept me out. I've started to look at the SPY September puts but they've already started moving and the premiums are elevated. That should be the next trade though as I believe that the top is in now for the medium term. We'll hope to see some type of snap back up in the coming sessions. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. My order for the GDX October calls is still out there. Another day like today should get it filled. Oversold and staying that way for the gold shares. GDX is half a point away from the 31 support level. I may have to adjust this trade because if the market continues to drop as I think it may, it will take the gold shares along with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up with todays drop above the important 20 level and its 200 day moving average. It is not completely overbought yet but is almost there. More market decline tomorrow would do it. What I'll have to be here is patient to wait for some type of counter trend move back up in stocks in order to purchase the SPY September puts. There's no guarantee such a move will occur but it is too late to chase things here. Once again it looks like the idea is correct here, we must now try and take advantage of it. Hopefully things don't just fall apart from here but they could. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Selling was the order of the day as the Dow fell 282 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The Dow was off 500 at one point so a comeback was made. I did place an overnight order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. So this idea for a trade was most likely missed. I do think we will be heading lower as time goes on but there's only three days left now in the August option cycle. I am looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty high with so much time left there. I can make a case for trying something tomorrow but I'll have to wait and see what the market does early before deciding if the risk is worth the effort. On the plus side at least my thinking was headed in the right direction. Gold was up three bucks on the December contract. Interest rates were flat but the US dollar had a good gain. The XAU lost two points, while GDX dropped over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. Still short and medium term oversold for GDX. I did place an order here for the GDX October calls and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX drops to the 31 level the order will probably get filled. I also may cancel it before then if the stock market really starts to fall apart. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today and fell back from its upper Bollinger band. The short term technical indicators here have turned to the upside. The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average. No clear signal being given here now in my mind. I do think that the SPY August put trade has been missed but we'll wait and see what happens tomorrow. If we do rally early on I may try it again. Plenty to ponder overnight. Asia was down and Europe generally lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We had quite a one day upside reversal today as the Dow opened lower and turned around to finish with a gain of 110 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a sideways configuration. Geopolitcal turmoil in Afganistan affected the open but buyers stepped in and squeezed those who got short. The NASDAQ did finish in the red though. Four days to go in the August option cycle and I'm still considering the SPY puts here. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'll possibly purchase the puts tomorrow after I go over the charts tonight. It's a risky proposition to be sure but perhaps my patience to do this trade will pay off. Gold was up ten bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. Flight to safety on the fall of Afganistan? Interest rates were lower. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed over 1/8. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares down is not a recipe for bullish success. WE are still short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped higher despite the gain in the Dow. That will happen with a big drop to start the day. The VIX does remain short term oversold. The Dow was almost 300 points down early in the morning. That kind of comeback cannot be ignored. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Could this be the beginning of an upside blow off for stocks? Of course I've already asked that question at least a half a dozen times already this year. Europe and Asia were down to begin the week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 15 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving higher as well and it looks like a grind too. It isn't the usual gapping higher movement that we're used to seeing here. That could be a warning that the rally isn't all that strong. And it isn't. Weak breadth and volume are the norm for this particular rise. We are setting new all time highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. But the environment is lackluster summer trading with many players absent. If we continue higher into Tuesday, I'm probably going to try the SPY August puts for a short term trade. But with only a week left in the August options, the risk is pretty high. I am also looking at the SPY September puts. Gold rallied on a weak consumer confindence report and the futures gained over $25. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. So for today at least things were in golds favor. The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was light. GDX is still oversold and I'd still like to wait to see if it can get back to the 31 level. Plenty of bears for gold right now and that is a good contrary indication that the September or October calls for GDX may work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today, remains oversold and is down to around its lowest level this year. To me, this is setting up for the index puts to work. The only question is when and I think sooner rather than later. But with the current lack of trading participants, the current conditions are not ideal. I do not want to force things here so I may just hang out on the sidelines until before the next Fed get together in Jackson Hole on the 26th. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting session today as the Dow was down for much of the time but managed to finish in the black. It ended up 15 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has turned back up but it is barely gaining steam. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Another new all time high for the S&P 500 as it continues to remain short term overbought. I did place another order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. Not that I'm in love with this idea but I have to expect some kind of weakness before option expiration. However there is no overhead resistance and the market today shrugged off a better than expected inflation report. So perhaps I'll just remain on the sidelines until we roll into the September option contract. Gold finished slightly higher as did the US dollar. Interest rates continued their climb. The XAU lost 2 1/3 and GDX shed 1/2. Volume was lighter. GDX is a point away from the 31 level and I'll probably get some of the GDX October calls if an when it hits that level. October is a long way out but at least that will give this idea some time to work out. GDX remains short and medium term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX is still moving lower and remains oversold. The VIX below its 50 day moving average has implied higher stock prices and the market is cooperating for now. The VIX can remain oversold for weeks but I have to believe that we'll see some type of corrective action for the stock market soon. Soon meaning the September option cycle. Patience for now but I might put in another August SPY put order tomorrow. Asia generally lower and Europe generally higher last night. Summertime Friday on tap to close out the trading week.

Inflation data came in where expected and the Dow rallied 220 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Once again the summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 sported a gain but the NASDAQ was in the red again. The Dow leading the way is usually a late stage of the rally affair. I suppose that I was lucky none of my SPY August puts tickets got filled. I still might try this idea because the S&P cannot stay short term overbought forever. However I may have to be patient and wait for the September option cycle. Risk increases in the August cycle as the days begin to dwindle. Light volume is a product of the summer but cannot be trusted nonetheless. Gold rallied as inflation didn't go above estimates. The December futures were up over twenty bucks. Interest rates finished little changed while the US dollar was lower. The XAU was up 3 1/4, with GDX gaining 2/3. Volume was good. The gold shares hit short term oversold and have begun to bounce. I'm not sold on the idea that this will be a long rally since the fundamental picture for gold at the moment is negative in my mind. GDX is oversold both short and medium term however but I'd rather wait and see if it can get down to 31. That's the game plan here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains short term oversold and below its 50 day moving average. It implies more rally to come for stocks. Perhaps things will simply run up into the August expiration. That would set up the SPY September puts. All wishful thinking on my part. But I really think we're overdue for some type of extended move down. Seasonality favors such a move as well. However the grind higher continues. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll watch the reaction to tomorrows inflation data and go from there.

Another mixed bag as the Dow gained 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The NASDAQ posted a loss today while the S&P 500 had a small gain. The S&P remains short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY August puts, modified it several times and never did get filled. I might try this idea tomorrow if we get a rally on the inflation data but I'm not really looking for that to happen. The market is slow and churning here. Running out of time in the August option cycle with only 8 days to go. Gold dropped a couple bucks on the December contract. Interest rates continued to move higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. GDX is now short term oversold but I'm in no hurry until it gets to the 31 level which is a point away. Even then is just might continue to go lower but that's the spot that I'll take a serious look at the October calls there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated since I did want to have a put position ahead of the inflation reports. But it doesn't matter now. There's also a part of me that says wait until the players return after summer break. The VIX was just slightly higher today and remains oversold on a short term basis. I suppose we'll just wait and see now how the market reacts to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It felt like an summer Monday and that's how we traded as the Dow fell 107 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is in a sideways trend. The NASDAQ managed to post a small gain. The S&P 500 was slightly lower and remains short term overbought. I did place an order for some SPY August puts but wasn't filled. I may try again tomorrow ahead of Wednesdays and Thursdays inflation reports. However there's also a chance that we simply remain range bound here with no big movement to make trading the options worthwhile. But that's just an observation or more likely a guess, nobody can predict the future. Technically the S&P is overbought, staying that way and there's not a lot of volume. Gold continued lower as it sold off in the overseas markets overnight. The futures finished with a loss of over thirty bucks. Gold traded below $1700 for a time overnight. Interest rates continued higher as did the US dollar. The XAU fell 3 3/4, while GDX dropped 3/4. Volume was good to the downside once again. I'm now looking at the October GDX calls for the next gold share trade. But there is no rush as the 50 day moving average has just crossed the 200 day for GDX to the downside. I'm going to try and wait for the 31 level before attempting something here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today as the market did have a sharp drop after it opened. It remains oversold. I suppose I'll hope for some buying in the market tomorrow in order to get a decent fill on the SPY August puts ahead of Wednesday. I'm pretty sure that it is a trade that I'd like to do. We'll see how it goes. Asia was higher and Europe mixed with very little change on the closing indices. Perhaps things will pick up on Tuesday but I wouldn't be surprised if it's just more of the same summer slumber.

Unemployment numbers came in strong but we had a mixed market as the Dow gained 144 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again but remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red. The S&P 500 closed at another new all time high and remains short term overbought. I'm thinking that if we stay higher on Monday or Tuesday, I'm going to try the SPY August puts. That's what I've got in mind right now but I'll look things over again on the weekend. I'm also considering just staying on the sidelines because the volume is pretty light and many players just aren't at their desks. The S&P is pretty much going sideways lately as well. Gold got crushed today as the futures fell over forty bucks to the near term support. The US dollar was higher on the jobs report. Interest rates jumped up on the strong employment numbers. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX dropped a point. Volume was good to the downside although the price drop in the gold shares could have been worse. GDX is also at its near term support but at this rate it isn't going to hold. If it drops to the 31 level, that may be the time to try the September calls. I'm certainly glad that I remained patient with that idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and broke below its 50 day moving average. This implies some more rally for stocks. Short term oversold and staying that way for the VIX. This is another reason to be patient for the SPY puts and maybe just forget about them in this option cycle. But we'll see. I'll go over the scenarios again this weekend and take it from there. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the first week of August. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today it was back to the upside as the Dow gained 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index, like the stock market, can't make up its mind which way to go. It remains in a sideways trend. With such a nice gain in the stock market today, my thinking is that we'll move even higher tomorrow on the jobs report. That's my guess at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at another new all time high. It remains short term overbought. If we do trend higher into early next week, I may try the SPY August puts. However if the breakout from the recent sideways consolidation takes off we could see an upside blow off. I will try and let the market tell us what to do. Gold dropped around eight bucks on the December contract. Interest rates were higher and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell two points while GDX shed 1/2. Volume remains light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. I'm still looking at the September calls here but will wait for GDX to get oversold before trying any options. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed at the 50 day moving average. Another day like today and it will make it back below there. It did close below the mid Bollinger band. Oversold here to be sure but in uptrends it can stay that way. I think tomorrows price movement in the market will tell us a lot. Still trying to remain patient for now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the employment report tomorrow morning.

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 323 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to roll over. The Dow was the under performer today as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P was lower today as it could not build on yesterdays gains. It remains short term overbought on some of the technical indicators. I still favor the SPY August puts but really don't want to purchase them until after the employment report on Friday. The TRAN was pretty weak today as well so it looks like perhaps the market is ready to take a dip in the summer. But we all know that the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a couple bucks today as interest rates finished mixed. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was off around 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume is still light here. The gold shares followed the market lower today. This is why I prefer to wait to get some of the GDX September calls. If the market goes into a summer swoon here, most likely the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down 300 market. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 50 day moving average here. Only a couple of trading days left this week with Friday most likely being the most important. Obviously the market reaction to the numbers is what we'll be watching. Still trying my best to remain patient here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got an earnings rally today as the Dow climbed 278 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways but is trying to turn back up. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher in the near term and I'm not going to stand in the way. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high today. The other major indices are close to new highs as well. Perhaps this will usher in a blow off top that I've been looking to happen for what seems like months now. I'm still tracking the SPY August puts but purchasing them would be days away or early next week. The SPY remains short term overbought. The recent sideways movement here appears to be a consolidation with higher prices now coming. Of course that could all change tomorrow but I don't think it will. Gold was off a few bucks today. The US dollar along with interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains light. The gold shares continue to outperform and that is a plus. The problem for me here is that some of the short term technical indicators for GDX are already overbought. I really do not want to chase this move now. However I cannot deny the gold share strength and what it implies going forward. Never easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with todays rally. It remains above the 50 day moving average. Oversold on the short term indicators here but not completely so. A break below the 50 day would really encourage the bulls in my view. I'm remaining patient for now since there is still plenty of time left in the August option cycle. We also have the jobs report to get through on Friday. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see if we get any follow through upside tomorrow.

Lower to begin the month of August and the week as the Dow fell 97 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving sideways. It was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened with a gap to the upside only to lose ground for the rest of the session. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. The NASDAQ finished in the black though. I'm still considering the SPY August puts if we see some upside before Fridays jobs report. I'm hoping that the market holds up until then. GE has now completed its reverse stock split. I won't be reporting on it anymore after an 8 for 1 reverse split. Gold finished the day about unchanged despite a drop in interest rates. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was off 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought. I'm trying to remain patient here when it comes to purchasing the September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above its 50 day moving average. The mid-range Bollinger band is also providing support and if that continues a decent rise in the VIX could be coming soon. That would imply lower stock prices. I am hoping for one more run up in stocks in order to purchase some August puts but we know that the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The month ended with a thud as the Dow fell 149 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. We opened with a gap lower and were negative for the remainder of the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ was the weakest of the major indices overall. I'm still trying to figure out what's going on here. I still think that we're building a top here but my ideas haven't been exactly accurate lately. I guess we'll see what happens in the beginning of next week and go from there. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold dropped $15 today despite a drop in interest rates. The US dollar had a bounce higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that's bullish going forward. I'm still considering the GDX calls but now attempting to decide whether to try the August or September contracts. It also may be too late for this trade as well since the technical indicators have already moved up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its early elevated levels. Not sure what is next for the VIX here. We'll be starting the month of August on Monday and still have three weeks left in this option cycle. I'll try and figure out something while going over the charts this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. No summer doldrums so far for this year. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

GDP came in weaker than expected and the Dow rallied 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This will turn the summation index back up. It appears that my ideas about lower stock prices have been incorrect as the market has proven me wrong once again. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought. At this point I'm going to let tomorrow go by and try again for some kind of profitable idea next week. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold had a good session for the bulls as the futures climbed over twenty bucks on the December contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good to the upside and the gold shares could be at the beginning of a rally here. We saw the signs earlier when the gold shares started to outperform gold. Unfortunately I wasn't paying enough attention as the GDX August calls seem to be the proper play now in retrospect. We still may get a chance here if GDX falls back to fill the gap that it created today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still remains above its 50 day moving average. So there is still the potential for that area to hold and the market to move lower in the near term. However I'm beginning to think that may not be the case. With the end of the month tomorrow anything goes though. I'm looking to regroup over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Back and forth for most of the day with the Dow finishing with a loss of 127 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still drifting lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 100 points. The S&P 500 finished flat. It was going to be a positve day for the S&P but it dropped in the final hour. The Fed had no surprises. I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts on strength tomorrow. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. It is possible that a rally in the gold shares is starting now. The short term indicators have turned back up. Perhaps I've waited too long to try the GDX september calls but we'll see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and did bounce off of its 50 day moving average alond with the mid Bollinger band. Whether or not that support holds will probably tell us where the market is going to go. If the VIX breaks through there, the rally will continue. If not, we'll see some more downside. I'm still leaning bearish here for the stock market but the strong NASDAQ says otherwise. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows GDP report and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The market opened with a gap down and sold off for the first half of the session. It them made a comeback to cut the loss in half. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought here. I'm still thinking about getting some SPY August puts on Thursday if things hold up until then. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and nothing new is expected there. But you never know. Earnings continue to pour in and have been positve so far for the most part. GE bounced around a lot today and finished with a gain over 1/8 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split will go in effect soon and I will probably discontinue following GE after that. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today. The US dollar along with interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume. I'm trying to wait to purchase some GDX September calls here. We are more oversold than overbought on the short term indicators. However if my thesis of lower stock prices takes hold, the gold shares will probably fall with it. I deally I'd like to get long GDX if it heads to the 31 level. That may just be wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and briefly made it over the 20 level. A move here back down to the 50 day moving average and mid Bollinger band line will be my cue to purcahse the SPY August puts. In a perfect world this would happen on Thursday morning. For now we'll just deal with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again. Still hugging the upper Bollinger band for the daily S&P 500 chart. Short term overbought here. My plan for now is to wait until the GDP report on Thursday to attempt to get some SPY puts. That will get the Fed out of the way on Wednesday. We also have big tech earnings reports due out tomorrow. My hope is that the rise continues and last piece of news will be a robust GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The market rarely cooperates. New all time highs all around today for the majoe stock indices. GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold fell four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/2 and GDX was up over 1/3. Volume was light. Once again the gold shares outperformed gold itself and that is bullish. I am still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was up today and closed on its 50 day moving averge. That doesn't fit with an up market. Short term oversold for the VIX here but not completely yet. Not sure how to read this indicator at the moment. Plenty of market moving potential this week with the Fed and economic data. We've also got the end of the month on tap. Plenty of time to go in the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were mixed overngiht. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Powering ahead to new all time highs in many of the major stock indices. The Dow gained 238 points to close above the 35000 level for the first time. The advance/declines were positive and volume was average. Monday is all but forgotten and clearly in the rear view mirror. I will have to rethink my bearish posture over the weekend as I did not expect the market to simply turn around and press on to new all time highs. The S&P 500 is now short term overbought but there is no overhead resistance. The NASDAQ remains a leader and that's a positive. Perhaps this will usher in the blow off top that I've mentioned before. Earnings are driving things at the moment and so far they've been better than expected for the most part. GE was flat and the volume was light. Gold was off five bucks or so on the futures. Interest rates were slightly higher and the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. No love for the gold shares as they remain oversold. I am still looking at the September GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower as it is moving towards short term oversold. It is now midway between the Bollinger bands. The VIX remains below 20 and appears to be headed back down to the 15 level. Plenty of work to do this weekend as I try and figure out my next trade. This weeks reversal in stocks cannot be ignored. Certainly we haven't seen the usual summer slowdown. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Hopefully I'll come up with a profitable idea. Asia was higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. Europe was up as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A day of hanging around as the Dow rose 25 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The bounce appears to be running out of steam. Sideways from here for a couple of days would set us up to try the SPY August puts. However the premiums on the options are still rather high. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely overbought just yet. At this point I'll wait until next week before deciding what to do. GE lost over 1/3 on light volume. Gold added four bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked lower while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU lost over a point, while GDX shed twenty cents. Volume was light. The gold shares are going sideways as they remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down slightly as we wait to see what happens there. I still would find it hard to believe that we're heading to new all time highs again but the NASDAQ has been leading the way back up so I suppose anything's possible. We'll see how the week closes out. Europe and Asia were generally higher. On to Friday.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 286 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Earnings are driving things higher for now as Monday seems like it's far in the past. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around. I'm still not convinced that we will simply move on to new all time highs here but I could be wrong. I'm hoping that we'll build some kind of top here in the next few days that will give us a chance to purchase the SPY August puts. Remaining patient for now. GE was up over 1/3 on better than average volume. It's made up over a buck in the past two sessions. Gold fell five bucks on the August contract. The US dollar was slightly lower today and interest rates continued to move higher. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed gold for a change and we haven't seen that in a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again and closed below its 50 day moving average. Back below 20 now on the VIX with the short term indicators pointing lower. The VIX is implying that the bounce has more to go. That is entirely possible but I will still wait to see if the summation index actually turns around. Hasn't happened yet. However I will admit that there still seems to be plenty of money to go around with the continued easy Fed policy. Europe and Asia gained ground overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We got a bounce and then some as the Dow gained 550 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator was at an extreme yesterday and a bounce was due. Is it possible that the decline is over? Yes but I doubt it. The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 50 day moving average again. That has been the case since this rally began nine months ago. So it is possible that the market keeps on chugging forward. My thinking is that we'll build more of a top here hopefully. That would give me some time to purchase the SPY August puts at a better price. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned or are starting to turn around. A weak volume move higher from here would be the ideal scenario. There is so much time in the August options that you don't have to be in a hurry to do anything. GE bounced back almost 3/4 on good volume. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Still no interest in owning the gold shares. NEM reports earnings on Thursday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back down below the 20 level today. Maybe it stays below 20 and maybe the market goes higher from here. However we can't trade on maybes. I think that we will have to see what happens when the McClellan oscillator makes it back up to the zero line. If it goes through that line and turns the summation index back up, then I'd say the decline is done for now. But if it gets back to the zero line and stalls that will be the time to purchase those SPY August puts. That's my thinking at the moment. Subject to change as we move along in time and the market reveals where it is going. It looks like no summer doldrums this year. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Down we go as the Dow fell 725 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow was off over 900 during the session. Return of the pandemic fears is the excuse for todays price action. But the breadth had been weak as we were moving up and the short term techncial indicators had already rolled over. The sell off on the first day of the new option cycle has inflated the premiums even more. The extra week in the August cycle doesn't help with the pricing either. The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold here so a bounce should be coming soon. The S&P 500 did manage to hold on to the 50 day moving average here. However I'm still a believer in the SPY puts here and will be looking to purchase some on a bounce. Obviously the ideal time to buy has passed but that doesn't mean there won't still be some money to be made on the short side going forward. The NASDAQ has held up pretty well so far so perhaps the decline will not be severe. GE was off over 1/2 on heavy volume. Gold was off a few bucks and did come up from the prices lows on the day. The US dollar was up slightly but interest rates had a big drop. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside here. I am looking at the GDX September calls. The problem here being that if the market does continue to fall, the gold shares will most likely follow. But if GDX gets completely oversold on the daily chart I will give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 25 today and did finish above its 200 day moving average. Not completely overbought yet so there might be a bit more downside before we see a bounce for stocks. No summer doldrums now in the stock market. Let's hope we see some kind of huge bounce soon as that will be the opportunity we're now looking for. Europe and Asia were lower as liquidation is now happening around the globe. They all pile in and they all pile out. We'll keep an eye on tonights ativities.

Sellers took over on Friday as the Dow fell 300 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now moved lower and it is not overbought anymore. I do think that this is the beginning of some type of down trend. How long and how far is the question. I'm hoping for some kind of move back up in order to purchase some SPY August puts. But it could already be too late. We will have to see how things go next week. GE was off almost 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold fell about twenty bucks as both rates and the US dollar were slightly higher. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX shed over a point. Volume picked up to the downside. After todays price action it appears the move coming due to the contracting Bollinger bands for GDX will be to the downside. But we will wait and see if there is any follow through next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are now pointing up and that implies lower stock prices unless we see a turnaround on Monday. So it appears that we are a potentially inportant inflection point for the market at this time. I do think that we will head lower. I just don't know how far and how fast. I also could be wrong and that stocks take off to the upside from here on the coming earnings reports. But I really don't think that will be the case. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market continues to send mixed signals as the Dow rose 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Overall stocks lost ground today with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The market is trying to figure out what to do here. The least case scenario in my mind would be for some type of sustained rally from here but who knows? The S&P 500 remains overbought but the short term technical indicators have now rolled over. The summation index has been heading lower for a while now but we haven't really seen any drop in price. Not sure exactly what that implies. I'm still looking at the SPY August puts. GE was off a nickel on light volume. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to decline. The XAU was up a point and GDX up 1/4. Volume was pretty light. The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting to the point that a major move for this index is in the offing. As usual the question of which way is the issue. I am starting to take a closer look here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow but that does fit the overall market decline. Still around mid-range for the indicators here so it could go either way. We haven't seen the usual positive market bias that is usually associated with option expiration week this time around. We will also be rolling into the August option cycle on Monday that has an extra week in it. Premiums there remain elevated. Patience for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to a mixed bag as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was higher than expected again today. Also the Fed chairman began his testimony on capital hill today. Will finish tomorrow. The market just bounced around today. The NASDAQ finished lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. So far this week has been a sideways event with only a couple of days left. I'm still inclined to let this week pass and go from there. GE was off eight cents and the volume was light. Gold found some interest today as the futures gained twenty bucks. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have not kept up with the price of the precious metal lately and that is not bullish. I'm looking at the longer term GDX calls but in no hurry to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. I'm not getting any kind of signal here now one way or the other. The VIX hasn't been giving me any market direction clues lately or I haven't been able to figure them out. I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data was higher than expected and the market shrugged it off early in the session. However as the day wore on equities moved lower. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is now a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. The breadth lately hasn't really supported the move higher in my opinion. We are closer to the end of this rally in my mind. It is just a matter of positioning for the inevitable decline. The August SPY put premiums are still pretty high but that's where my focus will be. GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold bounced around today and finished up a couple of bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares pulled back from their highs of the session, following the overall market. Maybe if they get oversold again I'll consider trading the calls there but the lack of recent volume is a concern. Plus if I'm correct about a market drop the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a lower market. Short term technical indicators here remain mid-range. The VIX seems to be indicating that things could go either way here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow. Then the Fed chairman in front of Congress to close out the week. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was higher and Europe close to finishing unchanged overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

New all time highs all around as the Dow gained 128 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. Short term overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. Like a broken record. Option expiration week is upon us and I still believe that things will run up into Friday. I could be wrong. I'm already looking at the SPY August puts. I'd like to see a top that takes a little time to build but a blow off to the upside is possible as well. The market will not remain overbought forever. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed and the short term indicators have stalled. It looks like the VIX could go either way here. Inflation data due out in the next couple of days followed by the Fed chief in Washington to speak before Congress on Thursday and Friday. So there are potential market moving episodes to come. I won't be trying any of the short term July option trades this week if I can help it. Europe and Asia were higher as the money flow into stocks continues around the world. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Volatility has made a return as the Dow stormed back to the upside today with a 448 point gain on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. A new all time high close for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and staying that way. There's no news to account for todays rise but the light volume is a warning sign in my book. I think that we are closer to the end of this bull rally than the beginning. Maybe we'll get a blow off top and maybe we won't. At the least I think things will hold up until the expiration next Friday. After that I'll be looking for the SPY August puts. GE was up over 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold rose $6 on the August contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. Mixed messages there. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares did outperform gold today though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies higher stock prices going forward but this indicator hasn't been reliable lately. Back down away from the 20 area on the VIX and that is bullish. It is now just a matter of waiting next week out and taking things from there. An extra week in the August option cycle means that there's no hurry to do anything. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The summer doldrums took a day off today as the Dow fell 260 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off 550 points during the session. There wasn't any news to spark the sell off but perhaps the extreme overbought conditions finally came home to roost. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought but the indicators have turned back down for now. I don't think that today is the beginning of a sustained move down but I could be wrong. Perhaps we're at the start of building a top for the market. I still think that things will be held up until the July option expiration has passed. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their decline. The XAU lost over 4 1/2, while GDX was off by 7/8. Volume was light. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. They are underperforming the price of gold and that's not a good sign for the bulls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and was above the important 20 level today before pulling back. The short term technical indicators here have now turned around and are solidly pointing higher which would imply lower stock prices going forward. Obviously this indicator hasn't been giving any reliable signals in the past couple of days. Or perhaps my take on what is going on with the VIX is wrong. The TRAN got slammed today. It's been heading lower for a couple of months. Maybe this index is telling the story. However it is hard for me to get real bearish when the NASDAQ continues to make higher highs. I'm still in the mindset of waiting out the rest of the July option cycle before putting on the next trade. August options will have an extra week in them though. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. It appears that the markets know something that we do not. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Just another summer day as the Dow gained 104 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending lower. New all time highs for the S&P 500 as it remains overbought on the short and medium term indicators. Nothing's changed as we still look for higher prices heading into next weeks July option expiration. We'll see how things go after that. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold was up $7 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to fall. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. There's still no interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished off of its highs again today and was slightly lower. Still below the 50 day moving average here and that is a positive for stocks going forward. I get the feeling we will drift higher for the next week or so and then reassess the situation. The market has tried to sell off for a couple of days now without success so it looks like higher prices are coming despite the continued overbought technical conditions. Not exactly the summar doldrums but there probabaly won't be any big moves one way or the other soon. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 208 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. Todays price action was what I was looking for on Friday. The Dow was off over 400 points during the session. However I don't think this the beginning of a sustained decline just yet. The NASDAQ was up on the day and the S&P 500 sold off but made quite a comeback. So I still think things will run up into the July expiration. I could be wrong. The general market is still overbought but trying to work off the extreme level. GE was off 3/8 on average volume. Gold was up five bucks on the futures as interest rates fell. The US dollar was higher though. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The short term indicators for both gold and the gold shares have turned back up but there still doesn't seem to be any interest in owning them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed all the way to its 50 day moving averge before falling back. It still finished higher on the day with the early drop off in stocks. I do not think that this is a precursor to lower prices in the near term. The VIX remains comfortably below the 20 level. A short trading week here in early July and I couldn't come up with any ideas over the weekend. It's a light week for economic data. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow gained 152 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The jobs numbers were better than expected but not enough for anyone to fear the Fed. My SPY July puts were losers from the open, which saw a gap higher. I took the over 30% loss and moved on. This was a trade that would be determined by the market reaction to the employment report. We are extremely overbought on a number of indicators that I follow but the market does not seem to care. The market is in full summer rally mode and I would expect this to last into the July option expiration in a couple of weeks. That doesn't mean that I won't maybe try the puts again next week for a short term trade because the overbought technical conditions cannot persist forever. The light volume on the way up can be discounted as a summer trait but that doesn't mean that there isn't cause for concern. The S&P 500 closed at another record high and finished above the upper Bollinger band. That conditon will not last. GE was off 1/8 on very light volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower despite a better than expected jobs number. The XAU was up over 2 points, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was light. Still just tepid interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again, remains oversold and that story hasn't changed. As long as the VIX remains below 20, the trend will be up. However I would be careful chasing things here because this market is getting out of hand in my humble opinion. Why not just buy the calls you might ask? Buying calls with the extreme overbought condition we now face is not usually a recipe for success. The market price action has all the signs of a blow off top and you do not want to be the last one to be buying. These kind of things never end well. Just look at a daily futures chart for lumber over the last six months and you'll see what I mean. For now, we'll enjoy the ride higher in stocks. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week. A long weekend on tap but there's plenty of work to be done to come up with a game plan for next week. Despite todays losing trade, I'll be searching the charts for the next idea. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

July begins to the upside as the Dow gained 131 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was the strongest of the major averages and set another new all time high. Overbought, staying that way and there is no overhead resistance. We'll see how things go with the jobs report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. My order for the SPY July puts was filled today. They are about where I bought them. This could be a trade that I simply exit tomorrow regardless if we're up or down. Some of the indicators are hitting extreme overbought levels but that is usually a sign of strength. We'll see how it goes. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up five bucks, interest rates were a bit higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses after opening higher. Volume was pretty light. Remaining oversold for the gold shares as they have been for weeks. I thought that perhaps a bottom was being put in but there isn't any interest in owning the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and had a tight range. Low volatility is generally positive for stock prices. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had good sessions. The NASDAQ was a laggard. Just waiting on the reaction to the employment report for now. That will determine if this SPY July put trade succeeds or fails most likely. Strength for the S&P ahead of this report usually means more gains to come. We'll see. Asia lower, Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the jobs report tomorrow.