Back to the upside for the Dow as it climbed 189 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed came and went. The market liked whatever it heard, which was nothing unexpected. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 however there is no overhead resistance and we're still in options expiration week. I'm not considering the SPY March puts anymore with only 2 days left to trade them. I'll start looking out to April for the next SPY trade. GE was up almost 1/2 on light volume. Gold found a bid with the dovish Fed as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 3 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. Another missed trade here as I was not expecting March to be gold positive. I do still plan on getting some April GDX calls here if we get some kind of pullback in the gold shares. The weekly candlestick chart is bullish and the indicators there have plenty of room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has now decidedly closed below the 20 level. This implies much higher stock prices going forward as the rally lives on. Longer term you now must be bullish unless we get a quick move back up in the VIX. It is short term overbought but can stay that way when the market is moving higher. It looks like the 10% correction in the NASDAQ is all we're going to get and it's up, up and away from here. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The jump in interest rates is probably over for now as well. Extremely short term overbought there now. Perhaps a drop there in the coming days will spur the SPY to the 400 level. Just a guess on my part. Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Lower for the Dow today as it fell 127 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The overall market was better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ positive. A positive day for the S&P today would have set us up for the SPY march puts tomorrow. Now that trade isn't as easy. I'll have to see what the price action is early on and take it from there. We are short term overbought on the S&P but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was off twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed. A waiting game on the Fed tomorrow. The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Waiting for a set up to try the April GDX calls. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX barely closed below the twenty level today but the just is still out on whether we make it through there or not. A positive day tomorrow would probably do it and set the stage for much higher prices going forward. We did see some cracks in the wall today though with both the TRAN and the Russell 2000 lower. I don't know if that means anything or not yet. I'm still bullish in the longer term for stocks. Just trying to figure out if a short term SPY put trade tomorrow is worth the risk. We'll see. All eyes and ears on the Fed, with the markets reaction to whatever happens being the key. Three days left in the March option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The march higher continues as the Dow gained 174 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Overall the broader market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. There is no overhead resistance as the Dow along with the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. Everything seems to be pointing up as there are no sellers. We are now short term overbought. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the SPY March puts if we continue higher into Wednesday for the Fed meeting. It would be quite a risky trade with less than 3 days to go. However if we do just rise from here I'll probably give it a try. GE bounced back 3/4 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split that was announced last week caused the huge drop off. It hasn't been voted on yet but I'm not a fan of the reverse split. It is never a really positive event in my mind. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. Getting overbought now for the gold shares. I would like to try the GDX April calls if the opportunity presents itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and is right at the important 20 level. We are short term oversold on the VIX. The 20 level has held things for the VIX for the past year or so. A break below this level would imply that the rally is going to go longer and higher than is currently thought. If we can't get through there, a pause or decline should occur. So we'll see where we go from here. Retail sales out tomorrow but we're waiting on what the Fed has to say on Wednesday afternoon. Asia was higher with the exception of China, while Europe was slightly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag again as the Dow climbed 293 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow was stronger than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in the red again. I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but it wasn't filled. I might try this idea again next week depending on the market action early in the week. It is getting late for this though. GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume. Gold was slightly higher after being off twenty bucks early. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX were up slightly, also coming up from the worst levels on the session. The GDX April calls will be in order on weakness next week if we get any. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX has now printed a bullish reversal pattern. So if we see some selling in the gold shares next week we will be buyers. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is now short term oversold. We're getting close to the twenty level here which has proven to be hard to crack. If we can make it through the rally will continue and go higher than most expect. If not there will be a pause and perhaps another move lower. It's something to keep an eye on. Only a week to go in the March option cycle. last month I attempted a trade in the expiration week and got clobbered. I will hopefully not make the same mistake this time around. The NASDAQ is having trouble making it past the 50 day moving average and is another thing to watch going forward. Plenty of charts to go over on the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 188 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way. It closed above its 50 day moving average. We did pull back from the best levels of the session on the S&P. So perhaps some consolidation is in order. The S&P 500 did close at a new all time high. If we get some pullback here, perhaps I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade. I'm expecting the positive option expiration bias to be in effect next week. GE was off a buck on extremely heavy volume. They sold their air laesing business in a widely anticipated deal. Sell the news I suppose. Gold pulled back slightly today and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU added 3 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume remains on the light side. The gold shares performing better than gold itself is a positive though. I'm still waiting to try the GDX April calls. The short term technical indicators for GDX have already turned back up but are not overbought as of yet. The light volume is a concern so there's no point in chasing this move higher right now. Resistance for GDX is at 34 and we'll see what happens when we get there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it's getting short term oversold. Therefore any attempt at trading the SPY calls in the March option cycle would have to be short term. Meaning a couple days or so at the most. It's good to see the small stocks take the lead again for the bullish cause. The only caveat on the move higher is the contracting volume as the indices have moved higher. It is a warning sign but not necessarily a deal breaker for trying the SPY March calls in the next six days. We'll see. Europe and Asia moved up in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again were getting a mixed bag when it comes to stocks as the Dow soared 464 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was by far the best performer of the day as the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The S&P 500 did manage to get throught the short term resistance line today and close above it. I'm still considering the SPY March calls if we get some selling here soon. However the opportune time to buy the calls here has passed. Not yet completely overbought for the S&P, so there's a chance that a call trade before expiration could still work. I do not however like the fact that the Dow is leading the way here. It's a healthier market when all stocks are rising and that isn't the case at the moment. GE was off 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. It does need to work off its short term overbought condition. Gold was up around another five bucks as the US dollar was slightly lower in todays trade. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. No volume equals no interest in the gold shares right now. I'm still looking at the April option cycle here if I decide to try the GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and still has plenty of room on the indicators to support the short term rally that we find ourselves in. It is true that the S&P 500 could be forming a head and shoulders top here, with the right shoulder being made now. But the fact that I'm seeing this talked about so much leads me to believe that it won't happen. Whenever the majority believe something about the market it rarely comes to pass. We'll know in the coming days. I'm still going to look for new all time highs for the S&P before expiration. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A bounce in tech stocks led to a rally today but the Dow only added 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I think that it will be successful. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. It gained over 450 points. Interest rates retreated and that was the excuse for the rally. Although I didn't get any SPY March calls I'm still looking at this idea as the next trade. Today the S&P 500 made it above a short term resistance line that has been in effect since mid-February. However it could not hold the gain and closed back below it. Volume, although heavy, still wasn't as good as it's been lately. So there may be another dip lower here to give us the chance to try the SPY March call trade. We'll see in the coming days. GE stalled today and was off 1/8 on good volume. Gold soared as the US dollar dipped. The gold futures climbed over thirty bucks. The XAU was up 3 points, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up. I am however still waiting for the GDX April calls as the next trade here. If it turns out that a sustained move higher for the gold shares starts here, then I've missed it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did close back above its 50 day moving average. The indicaters here have turned lower and have plenty of room to go before getting oversold. It is another eason to remain bullish here for stocks. On the flip side the bounce in the NASDAQ today out of the blue could be worrisome if we don't see some more near term upside. The NASDAQ has led the way down and sometimes in down markets you get moves like today out of the blue that are just oversold bounces. I don't think that's the case here but we'll be keeping an eye on it. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as the recent drop in stock prices around the world comes to a halt. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It's getting a bit mixed up here as the Dow climbed 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were down. The TRAN set a new all time high so the Dow theory is intact. However with the small stocks being the laggards, it isn't all that positive in my view. I'm not sure if purchasing some SPY March calls on weakness tomorrow is the right idea but I still might give it a try. Less than 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle. Money has obviously been moving from the tech sector to the old industrials for whatever reason. I'm not getting a clear technical signal either way for the S&P. I'll check things over again tonight. GE continues to climb as it gained 1/2 on pretty heavy volume. Gold sank as the US dollar continues its rally. The precious metal futures lost twenty bucks. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/8. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to hold up rather well despite the losses in gold. This is usually a bullish sign. I am looking at the GDX April calls. GDX seems to be putting in a base at the 31 level. We'll see if it holds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a rise in the Dow. It did follow the overall market though. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range but it's my guess that the VIX will drop from here and we'll see the overall market pick up. Just a guess though as the technical picture isn't 100% clear. Rates continue to climb but they are short term overbought and staying that way. It won't last forever. I'll have to look things over again tonight and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow soared today as it gained 570 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We had some early selling but the market turned things around. The jobs report came in better than expected. I'm sure that some of the volume today was short covering as I am now guessing that the decline is over. The S&P 500 now shows a hammer on its daily candlestick chart and also closed back above its 50 day moving average. The McClellan oscillator has put in a double bottom. I'll be looking to purchase some SPY March calls on weakness early next week if we get any selling. We now also have a hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart. I'll go out on a limb and say that we'll see new all time highs for the S&P by option expiration on the 19th. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to turn back up. GE was barely higher on good volume. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU rose almost 3 points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was lighter here. The gold shares trended sideways this week and you can certainly make a case for trying the calls here. But I am more inclined to wait for the April option cycle here. I'll consider the options over the weekend. The VIX was sharply lower today and the short term technical indicators have rolled back over. Not even close to being oversold here and it is one of the reasons that I'm turning bullish. Now if we were to see a give back of all the gains made today on Monday, I might have to change my tune. But I don't think that will happen although I'm hoping for some selling only to get in a long position. If we simply continue higher then the opportunity will have been missed most likely. There is also a chance that the S&P is forming a head and shoulders top, with the right shoulder beginning to be made right now. That is a longshot in my view but we'll keep an eye on it. I still feel good about higher prices from here going forward. It looks like interest rates are forming a near term top as well. Plenty of charts and information to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower we go as the Dow fell 346 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as we were off about twice that intra-day. Oversold for the major averages and below the lower Bollinger bands. The S&P 500 could not hold its 50 day moving average. It seems a bit stretched to the downside here to me, so a bounce is in the cards soon. But where we are heading is the main question. The NASDAQ has led the way lower and is already off over 10%. I don't think that we're headed for an extended downturn but I certainly can't say that for sure. The rise in rates is the excuse and they were higher today. The Fed chairman spoke but it did not appease the market. We'll see how things go with the employment report tomorrow. GE bucked the trend again with a gain of 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold fell and closed below $1700. The precious metal futures dropped over a dozen. The US dollar had a strong day. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX was flat. Volume was good. The gold shares have held up rather well despite the drop in the metal recently. I would like to try the GDX calls again as it remains oversold and appears to be trying to form a base. I did place another order for the March calls last night but canceled it during the session today. I'll consider it again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 30 today but then fell back. The short term indicators here turned back up but are not yet overbought. Ideally I'd like to see a reading between 35 and 40 to let me know the decline is over. The market rarely cooperates. It's possible that we see a rally in stocks tomorrow and the VIX rolls back over. The only thing that we can say with reason is that volatility has picked up and the recent daily uptrend lines in the indices have been broken. Where we go from here is the main question. I'll look over things again tonight and try to come up with an answer. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We continue to see the market deteriorate as the Dow fell 121 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative once again but not as much as expected considering the overall market weakness. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ continuing to lead the way lower. The NASDAQ is now clearly below its 50 day moving average and implies even lower prices going forward. I'm back to being cautious as my thesis that things would turn around here and head higher was wrong. I've been leaning to the bullish side but the market has proven that to be incorrect. The Dow is holding up here but the S&P 500 closed back at its 50 day moving average. Another day like today and that area of support will be violated as well. We are getting close to the lower Bollinger band for the S&P and perhaps that will keep things in check. Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers for the next excuse to buy or sell. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/2 on very good volume. Gold was off over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU shed 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume picked up to the downside. The gold shares did finish off of their worst levels of the session. I am still looking at the GDX March calls but trying to remain patient. The gold shares have been acting better than gold itself and that is a positive. They are oversold on both a short and medium term basis. The trouble is that the fundamentals don't favor gold at the moment nor does the seasonality. The recent ramp up in interest rates has provided headwinds for stocks and that applies to gold as well. Though rates remain overbought there is nothing that says they can't simply stay that way. It seems to me that gold is trying to hang in here at the $1700 level and if it does there should be a tradeable rally in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike today and closed above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for the VIX remain close to mid-range but if they turn back up we could see a significant decline. I'm not saying that will happen but it could. We're also almost to the top of the Bollinger bands for the VIX here. Europe and Asia were both higher last night. We'll see if they follow the US lower on Thursday. I'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

No upside follow through to yesterdays terrific gains as the Dow lost 144 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth session with the bears taking control in the final hour. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The Bollinger bands for the S&P 500 are starting to get closer. The short term technical indicators are now mid-range. I'm still giving the benfit of the doubt to the bulls for now. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX rose a point. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled. The techncial indicators had gotten to the point to give the calls there another try. Now that we've bounced I'm not sure whether to chase things here or not. I think that the April GDX calls would be a better idea at some point this month. We'll just have to take it day to day and see what plays out with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up slightly today as it hangs around the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held things in check for the major stock averages so far. I'm expecting it to hold. I am however keeping a close watch on the NASDAQ, as it is back to its 50 day moving average and has been leading the way lower. I'm not getting a good feel on what's happening with the stock market at the moment. I am still bullish though unless we start breaking those 50 day moving averages. The economic data has been coming out a little better than where expceted so far this week. All eyes will be on the employment report due out on Friday. Asia was lower and Europe a bit higher in lst nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market blasted off to the upside as the Dow gained 603 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Oversold bounce? Start of the month money flow? Or the beginning of a sustained move higher? These are the questions that will find answers in the coming days. Unless we head back down hard tomorrow, I'm once again inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. 50 day moving averages have held for the major indices. Many of the short term technical indicators are bouncing back from being oversold. But with the recent extreme volatility that we've seen, anything is possible. I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. GE was up over 1/2 on average volume. Gold opened higher but the futures fell back for a loss of $7. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. Oversold all the way around for the gold shares. March is not usually a good month for gold so I am trying to not purchase the GDX calls here. That said, the indicators for GDX are in the buy zone on multiple time frames. If a trade was to be made here it would have to be on a short term basis. The fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped hard today and the indicators here have more room to go lower. That supports a bullish thesis on things going forward. The VIX also closed back below its 50 day moving average. So perhaps the fears generated by the spike in interest rates is already over. You can certainly make a case for that. Markets go where they want though and I'll see what happens tomorrow before deciding on a plan of action. But todays price action will certainly have the bears on the run. Europe and Asia were higher as we got buying of stocks around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The picture was mixed today but the downside did not go away. The Dow fell 475 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow took the brunt of the selling, with the NASDAQ ending up ositive on the day. Most of the major stock indices are either challenging or trying to stay at their 50 day moving averages. The S&P 500 is at its 50 day and is not yet completely oversold. The up trend line from November has been violated. The longer term weekly up trend line from a year ago is in jeopardy as well. So next weeks price action will be pretty important. With the summation index heading lower, I'm looking for lower prices. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. Gold got clobbered to end the month. The futures shed forty bucks as the US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 6 1/2, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was above average. Oversold both short and medium term for the gold shares. I may try the GDX March calls if GDX gets to 30. That's about a point away. Many of the technical indicators for GDX are pointing to at least a bounce in the next couple of sessions. However if the stock market continues to fall apart it will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished slightly lower today after bouncing around. The short term techncial indicators here are starting to curl down. But that doesn't mean they can't simply turn back up. Not completely overbought for the VIX yet. We'll find out next week if this is just another blip in the road on the way up or something that lasts a while longer. Plenty of charts to peruse over the weekend before the beginning of a new month. Asia had some big losses and Europe was negative as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Down we go as the stock market got hammered today as interest rates continue to rise. The Dow lost 559 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down with conviction. The bears are taking control. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. It has been for the past couple of weeks and closed below its 50 day moving average. My idea for the S&P 500 to join the Dow with a new all time high soon was wrong. The S&P 500 is heading down and is not yet short term oversold. The positive effect from the earlier short term upside reversal this week has been negated. Volatility has ramped up and now we can look for lower prices going forward. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold dropped thirty bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 6 points, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was good. Oversold for the gold shares but the fundamentals are not in its favor right now. I am looking at the GDX calls as usual but not in a hurry to put any trades on here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX, which I thought was exhausted, came back to life. It had a big spike higher to close above its 200 day moving average. It is not short term overbought yet. This implies that there will be more downside in the market to go. Not sure what the last day of the month trading will bring but it probably won't be boring. Perhaps I'll wait for the SPY to get to oversold and maybe try the March calls then. Today was a pretty negative session that was not expected in my view. After things turned back up earlier this week, it seemsed like it was all things on go to the upside. But that is not the case. I'm back in the cautious camp for now and glad that I didn't try any calls this week. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how we finish out the week and month tomorrow.

The Dow blasted off to the upside after yesterdays one day positive reversal. The most watched index climbed 424 points on very heavy volume again. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Dow is outperforming now which isn't the ideal scenario for the bulls. But we won't argue with price. I'm back to looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 in the coming days unless things turn back down before the end of the week. GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy. Gold fell $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. Higher prices for the gold shares with a lower gold price is bullish. As much as I'd like to try the GDX calls again, I'm on the sidelines for the rest of the month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that certainly fits with a strong market. It appears yesterdays action in the VIX was exhaustive and that going forward we'll see higher prices for equities. That's my best guess at the moment. We'll get some economic data out tomorrow and then finish off the week and the month on Friday. Option premiums remain elevated while the best time to purchase the SPY March calls was yesterday. Perhaps we'll get another chance before option expiration. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had an incredible one day reversal to the upside after opening with a huge gap lower. The Dow was off almost 400 points early on and came back to finish with a 14 point gain on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending down but not at a rapid rate. The S&P 500 made a dramatic comeback as well to finish positive. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 500 points early. It didn't make it back to positive territory but it did regain most of the losses. Perhaps today is the turnaround that gets things going back to the upside. I'd guess that in the short term the decline is over. Looking further out, I don't exactly know what to expect. The short term technical indicators for some of the major indices are now mid-range so it could go either way. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold was off five bucks on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was average for lately. I might try the calls here again if we get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike to get above its 200 day moving average and then fell all the way back to close below its 50 day moving average. I don't know if it's the beginning of more volatility or the exhaustion of it. We'll see how it goes in the coming days. I'm inclined to believe that things will go higher from here after todays stock price action but I am certainly not exactly sure. The NASDAQ 50 day moving average held today. Some of the other stock indexes now show positive hammer candlesticks on their daily charts. However I'm still going to remain cautious here. Perhaps that's what the previous losing trades have done to my perspective. The Fed has once again stated that the easy money will continue and you can't really try and fight that. However rates have started to climb and the market is the ultimate judge and jury. The short term indicators on the SPY are getting to mid-range and are still pointing down. I'm on the sidelines until a decent signal appears or I get a better handle on what's going on. Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It's a mixed up market here as the Dow gained 27 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending sideways with a lower bias. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ lost over 300 points. I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as were are getting a buy signal for the S&P 500 on one of my indicators. However the balance of the short term technical measures are far from being oversold. When the Dow is the leader it is usually a late in the bull cycle factor. I've been looking for higher prices and it hasn't happened. Therefore I'm taking a cautious stance for now. We'll get some talk from Fed chairman Powell tomorrow. GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume. Overbought here on the short term. Gold came to life today and the futures rose $25. The US dollar was lower. The XAU jumped almost 7 points, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was good. Is it any surprise that gold and the gold shares decide to rise after the February options have expired? This is just simply part of the game. I'm not inclined to chase things higher here but that could change as we go forward. Gold itself for now has held a long term trend line that has been in effect since 2019. Gold and the gold shares were both short and medium term oversold beginning last week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed right at the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have now turned up. Today could have marked a new beginning for volatility. We'll see how it plays out going forward. The market is sending mixed signals right now as the over the counter market got crushed yet the TRAN closed at a new all time high. I'm on the sidelines for now as the option premiums are high as we start the March cycle. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The market is still trying to make up its mind which way to go here as the Dow was up a point on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has now started to move sideways. We bounced around for much of the session and things finished basically mixed all the way around. The short term technical indicators on the S&P 500 remain overbought and pointing down. I do believe that we are just moving sideways here before moving up once again in the near future. I am not expecting a big decline right now. GE was up over 1/3 but the volume remains light. Gold was up $5 on the April futures as it tries to stabalize and did finish off of its lows. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was up a point while GDX was flat. Volume was light. I'll be taking a closer look at gold and the gold shares over the weekend to determine if I'd like to try a trade here again in the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the double losses in the GDX call options this week. Win or lose in the game you have to keep moving on. The VIX bounced around and finished a little lower on the day. Still oversold here in the short term. I'm expecting the VIX to stay that way for a while longer and that stocks will move higher in the beginning of next week. We'll see if that actually happens. We're rolling into the March option cycle and the SPY premiums are pretty pricey. The puts much more so than the calls. Does the options market know something that we don't? Stay tuned. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. Plenty of work to so this weekend as I try to regroup. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market sold off early and tried to come back for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 119 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to try and move lower. The positive expiration week bias did not occur. The Dow was off over three hundred points early on. Like a broken record the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. I was looking for higher prices for the S&P this week and it didn't happen. My take on things hasn't been correct for a while now with respect to both the overall market and the gold shares. It's probably time for me to head to the sidelines for a while. GE lost around 1/4 on light volume. Gold bounced around today and finished little changed. The US dollar was lower. The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The earnings that came out today for the gold shares didn't do much. I sold my remaining GDX February calls for a 90% loss. Not a lot of money involved but a loss is a loss. Trading with such a short time left in the option cycle is not advised and it isn't my normal trading routine. The gold shares are now both short and medium term oversold. Will I attempt the March calls here when it makes technical sense? Perhaps but I'll let the week end tomorrow and see how I feel about things then. The fundamental picture for gold is not positive at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX had a spike up but did close back beneath the 50 day moving average. The oversold technical indicators are beginning to try and turn back up. As long as the VIX doesn't close above the 50 day, I have to believe that the market will be OK here and not have a dramatic drop. We've just had a pretty good run up for stocks so a pause would not be out of the question. However I'm not sure about five or ten percent correction at this time. We'll see how things play out going forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another day of crosscurrents as the Dow gained 90 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ the lead underperformer. We're not seeing the usual expiration week positive bias. The market is starting to feel heavy here but I'm still a believer in higher prices before the week is out. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Retail sales came in better than expected thanks to the stimulus checks. The Fed minutes were a yawn. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Gold looks like it is in free fall as the futures dropped another twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was good. The GDX February calls I purchased yesterday are solid losers. I don't even think that a good earnings showing tomorrow can save this ill timed trade. The short term technical indicators for GDX are pointing down and are not yet oversold. I don't know what I was thinking when I tried this short term trade yesterday. Trying to make up for the other losing trade in GDX? Hoping that gold would suddenly turn around and head back up? Counting on the earnings reports due out tomorrow morning to be good? Stick to the technicals and do not deviate from that fact. Mentally I'm feeling like I'm forgetting lessons that I have already learned. I've already dug myself a hole to get out of and we haven't even completed two months of trading. I'll simply have to do better from here. The VIX was barely higher today and was stopped form crossing the 50 day moving average. Still oversold here on a short term basis. I'm guessing that as long as the VIX trends below the 50 day, stocks will be moving higher. The S&P has been in a sideways congestion for about a week while remaining overbought. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see how the gold shares earnings are in the morning and take it from there.

Back and forth was the general description today as the Dow gained 63 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. A short trading week but I'm still looking for higher prices by the close on Friday. We'll get retail sales and the Fed minutes tomorrow. They are potential market movers. GE was up 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold dropped below the key level of $1800 today on the April futures as it fell almost $25. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was on the light side. I sold my GDX February calls for an 80% loss. I doubt that they'll get back to the strike price I had by Friday. This was a trade that moved sideways for the most part until the past couple of days when it fell apart. However I still would like to try and capitalize on the potential positive movement of the big earnings reports due out on Thursday. Near the close I purchased some other GDX February calls at a closer to the money strike price. There's only three days to go for this trade and gold is dropping so it could be another blow up trade. However I did not place a lot of money in this idea due to the inherent risk of trading with such little time left. So we'll see what happens. I'm holding on until the market open on Thursday to be sure. This trade does not make a lot of technical sense because the short term indicators are moving lower and are not completely oversold yet. It is definately out of my comfort zone. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss. It's part of the game. The VIX was higher and is now back above the 20 level. It fits with the overall market being lower but not with the Dow higher. Still oversold here as well. On another note interest rates have started to rise and that will not be good for gold or the stock market at some point. That may already be reflected in the recent weakness for the precious metal. It's something to keep an eye on. Asia was up and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We got some buying into the close before a long weekend and the Dow rose 28 points on lighter than lately volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to move up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way again. New all time closing highs once again for some of the major indexes. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It appears that the recent sideways price action has digested the prior gains and now we'll move higher. That's my take on things for now. The positive expiration week bias should come into effect as well next week. GE was up 1/4 but the volume remains light. Gold dropped around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed yet again. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My GDX February calls are now solidly in the red as time is running out. Only four days left in the February option cycle. At this point I'm probably going to have to wait for the earnings reports due out on the 18th. Even that may not save this trade if the gold shares continue to drift lower. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range so it could go either way. But this is a trade that I should probably already be out of. It never really made any headway to the upside on the option premiums from the start. Slight gains at the best in the beginning. Well at least I didn't try the SPY February puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and actually closed below 20. This could set off a rally from here in stocks despite already being short term oversold. On the flip side, things for the VIX could abruptly turn around at this level and imply a decline in stocks. I'm going with the former. Once we get and stay below the 20 level on the VIX it usually has bullish implications for the overall market. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how things go on Tuesday. A long holiday weekend here with plenty of time to go over all of the charts. I'm looking for higher prices next week. Asia was lower with many markets closed for the new year holiday there. Europe was higher. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More of the same today as the market seems to be in a hurry to go nowhere fast. The Dow dipped 7 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market fared better than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 in the black. It's been sideways since the good gains on Monday. The S&P remains short term overbought. We'll see how the week closes out before a long weekend and go from there. My guess is that next week will be positive. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold dropped today as the April futures shed $18. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume is light here as well. The short term indicators are now rolling over for GDX and that isn't a good sign for the bulls. My GDX February calls are now back to where I bought them a week ago. This is a trade that probably should have been exited earlier this week as the light volume shows no interest in the gold shares. I'm probably going to hang on until the big earnings announcements on the 18th but we'll see what happens tomorrow. The rolling over of the technical indicators is a problem that can't be ignored though. Once again it looks like my management of this trade is not up to snuff. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is staying short term oversold. The VIX is also moving sideways this week as the overall market is looking for direction. I thought that there might be a playable decline this week but it appears that sideways has been the trend or lack thereof. On the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. I'll keep an eye on GDX tomorrow. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow ahead of a holiday weekend in the US.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The market remains short term overbought as it digests the recent gains. I'm still thinking lower to sideways for the remainder of this week. No huge drop in store for now. We did have quite a dip intra-session after a move up early in the day. I did not attempt the SPY February puts. Running out of time for this idea and I'm pretty sure that I'm just going to let it pass. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures, while the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. Gold itself is holding up here but it's not really moving. The gold shares are finding little interest for now. My GDX February calls are still in the black but this trade has the feeling of getting long in the tooth. Six trading days left for it with the major gold companies earnings reports five trading days out. The short term technical indicators are still about mid-range. Holding on for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today and finshed a bit higher. Still oversold here though. I'll continue to look for weakness or sideways price action for the market until next week. No real news to speak of today with earnings still coming in. There is the second impeachment trail underway but the market doesn't seem interested in that. Asia higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Choppy price action all day as the Dow fell 10 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ was up and the S&P 500 down on the day. I think that we're putting in a short term top here and I expect lower prices for the rest of the week. That's my best guess at the moment. Short term overbought for the S&P and it is due for a rest. Perhaps we'll only move sideways before heading higher next week. Volume is getting lighter the higher we go and that isn't a positive. I do not expect some type of huge decline. GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but off from the best levels of the day. That was disappointing for the gold bulls with the dollar having a decent drop on the session. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. This too is not a positive for the gold shares as they did not follow gold higher. I'm still holding on to the GDX February calls that I purchased last week. They continue to show a slight profit. I've decided to hang on to them for a while as one of my preferred indicators here is still in a bullish mode. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch higher today and the daily chart looks like it is trying to form some type of bottom. That would fit in with my weaker prices going forward scenario if indeed it is a bottom. I am looking at the SPY February puts for a short term trade. There is however only seven trading days left before expiration as Monday is a holiday to begin next week. Perhaps if we see some early strength tomorrow I'll try the puts with an anticipated exit on Friday. Risky though as the timing would have to be right on. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Overbought and staying that way as the Dow gained 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. New all time highs all around the indices. The small stocks are leading the way with the Russell 2000 the outperformer. No overhead resistance for stocks. I'm in a quandry as I would like to try the SPY February puts in the next couple of days but I already own the GDX calls. Six days in a row higher for the S&P 500 and that will not last forever. I don't think that a decline if it occurs will be a big one but I do think that it will be tradeable. GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was pretty light. Lighter volume is also the story for the overall market as we go higher here. That fits in with the overall strategy of trying the SPY February puts this week. Gold found more interest as the April futures rose $18. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU added 3 points, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. My GDX February calls are showing a small profit. The short term technical indicators for GDX have now made it back to mid-range, so things could go either way from here. GDX was once again turned back at its 50 day moving average, which has proved to be resistance for over a month. If we see weakness soon in the overall market, the gold shares will probably go with it. I'll consider what to do here overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ticked up slightly today and that does not fit with an up market. This also could be a precursor to a near term pullback in stocks. The short term indicators for the VIX are now oversold. The SPY put premiums are not exactly cheap but with the proper timing on the entry profits can be had. The question is whether or not I'm up to the task. My other choice at the moment is to simply hold the GDX February calls as the earnings for the gold shares will be out before the February expiration. Never any easy decisions in the game. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. We'll see if they follow the US lead tomorrow.

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 92 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 poisitve. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. New all time highs for some indices as there is no overhead resistance. The jobs report came in about where expected and did not have a huge effect on trading in my view. The S&P 500 is short term overbought on some of the technical indicators. There is also a potential negative divergence with the RSI. If things hold up until the middle of next week, I'll be looking at the SPY February puts. GE was off a nickel and the volume was pretty light. Gold bounced back $17 on the April futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU climbed 4 points, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX February calls are showing a small profit. Not exactly sure how long I'll hold on to this trade. The short term techncial indicators are nowhere near overbought but the Bollinger bands are beginning to contract. This doesn't give GDX a lot of room to move up normally. I'll consider my choices on what to do here over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is now oversold. This is a plus if I decide to try the SPY puts next week. Not a plus for the GDX call trade though because if the market does drop it will most likely take the gold shares with it. However for now though the trend for stocks is up until proven otherwise. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P 500 is positive with a white bullish candle for this past week. The volume was lacking though and that is somewhat of a concern. Plenty to ponder over the weekend while checking all the charts. What to do about the GDX call trade will be addressed as well. Two weeks to go in the Feruary option cycle so there is plenty of time for price movement. Asia was higher with Europe mixed to finish up the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow powered higher today by 332 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. No news to speal of but the earnings are driving things higher. My thesis of the market heading back to lower levels was wrong. I'll have to re-evaluate what I'm thinking here. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. Not yet completely overbought and no overhead resistance. The trend has turned back up but I will be watching for the potetial negative divergences. GE was up 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold got clobbered today as the futures lost forty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 2 1/8, while GDX dropped 3/4. Volume was round average for lately. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares held up rather well. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls overnight and it got filled. It is showing a slight loss. The gold shares are oversold but the technical damage done today in gold itself cannot be ignored. My best hope here is that we get an oversold bounce to exit this trade. My take on the markets at the moment is off. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and that fits with todays gains. The NASDAQ along with the Russell 2000 also closed at new all time highs today. The volume hasn't been all that impressive here but you cannot argue with price. Unless there is some kind of reversal after the employment numbers tomorrow, you can look for higher prices going forward. I also might have to just head for the sidelines because my ideas right now are wrong. My readings of the charts are incorrect unless we see some sort of reversal for gold tomorrow. The Gamestop episode has quickly faded away. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how the jobs report goes tomorrow as we close out the trading week.

Indecision for the middle of the week as the Dow rose 36 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has stopped moving down. The NASDAQ posted a small loss. Some hesitation here and that's not unexpected in my view. We've dropped, bounced back and now we're approaching the moment of truth. Will things turn back down here or power up to new all time highs? I'm still a believer of the former for now. Just waiting on the employment report. GE was off a nickel and the volume was very light. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX was basically unchanged. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX February calls remains out there. I'm going to have to consider canceling it before the jobs report. If the market drops on that report, it most certainly will take the gold shares with it. I'll ponder what to do tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and closed below its 50 day moving average which is a plus for the bulls. Not yet completely oversold here either. There's still plenty of time in the February option cycle for a trade in the SPY. The drawback is that I do not have a clear signal just yet. I will say that the volume on the bounce has decreased with each passing day. Todays price action looks to me that it has run out of steam. Perhaps trying the SPY February puts on any strength tomorrow ahead of the jobs report is the way to go. I'd kind of prefer to wait until next week for that trade though if the market cooperates. It rarely does. It's something else to think about tonight. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Still bouncing back as the Dow gained 475 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index is now trying to turn around. Perhaps my prognosis of not getting back to new all time highs soon is wrong. Volatility does remain though so we'll see what happens for the rest of the week. It appears that the market is putting the Gamestop shenanigans in the rear view mirror. The S&P 500 has bounced up from its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators have moved back up as well. So things are not looking as bleak as they did a week ago. GE climbed 1/2 on average volume. Gold dropped over $25 on the April futures. The US dollar was a bit higher. Silver got crushed after its recent gains as the volatility in the precious metals has ramped up. The blame will be placed on the Gamestop crowd but markets go where they want to. The XAU fell 7 1/4, while GDX shed over a point. Volume was light. I adjusted down my order for the GDX February calls. I'm still not sure this is the right trade here but we're getting close to another buy signal on one of the more reliable indicators. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped pretty good today and that fits with todays rally. The short term indicators have rolled back down here for the VIX. We are not yet close to being oversold yet. If the market holds up for the next week, I'll be taking a look at the SPY February puts. We could have some negative divergences by then. But let's see how the rest of this week plays out first. The jobs report on Friday looms. Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

February begins to the upside as the Dow climbed 229 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. A sell off in the S&P 500 futures last night did not take hold as the market took off to the upside from the start of cash trading. Still trying to figure out what's going on here but the S&P has held on to the 50 day moving average for now. More oversold than overbought for stocks at the moment but we're not at any kind of extreme. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out and if we get some kind of technical signal one way or the other. Still plenty of time in the February option cycle. GE was up a nickel on light volume. Gold added over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was higher as well. Silver is the story in the precious metals right now. The futures there gained almost 10% today. The XAU jumped 7 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was average. My GDX February call order is still out there but it may be time to just cancel it. GDX has already moved a couple points higher and the short term techncial indicators have moved up. I'm not sure that I want to chase things here but I'll ponder this thought a bit more overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are now pointing down. I'm still looking for lower prices going forward though. There is plenty of room on the weekly indicators for the major stock averages to head lower. The recent volatility means to me that a change in the nature of the market is upon us. I do not think that we'll be heading back to new all time highs soon. I could be wrong. The silver market is getting a lot of attention right now but that hasn't translated into a big move higher in gold. I guess that I'll wait and see what happens tomorrow and take it from there. We've got the jobs report on Friday and I do think that will be a mover for metals one way or the other. We'll see. Europe and Asia rallied overnight as well. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed the month to the downside as the Dow fell 620 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. This week had the first real selling that we've seen for a while. The S&P 500 closed at its 50 day moving average. On a weekly basis the S&P is right at the up trend line that began with the lows last March. At the rate we're going this line isn't going to hold. The next support in my mind comes in at around 3500 and we are no where near that. The weekly indicators have rolled over and they have plenty of room to go lower. So we may perhaps be in the midst of an actual correction. 3500 on the S&P would be roughly a 10% correction. That's what I'll be looking for going forward. Could things turn around next week and the up trend line hold? Of course that could happen but I'm not thinking that it will. On a short term basis the S&P is oversold but not completely just yet. Volatility is back. GE was off 3/8 on heavy volume. Gold was up a little today but fell back far from its best levels of the session. The US dollar finished slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractioanl losses after opening up much higher. Both got pushed back from their 50 day moving averages. Volume was light. The price action was negative. With all that is going on at the moment, which includes the stock price manipulation on shorted stocks along with the recent market volatility, I would have expected to see a flight to gold. It hasn't happened. Perhaps trying the GDX February calls here is the wrong idea. My open order is still out there but I'll definately have to reconsider this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today and finished higher. We've already reached VIX levels that have ended recent declines in the market. I'm not sure if that is going to happen this time around. I'm looking for more weakness in stocks to come as the summation index is heading lower. 350 would be the target for the SPY but it is probably too late to try the puts there. We'll see what happens in the beginning of next week and go from there. There's still three weeks left in the February option cycle. Plenty of charts to look at over the weekend. Europe and Asia sold off to finish the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing back today as the Dow climbed 300 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We did reach short term oversold on one of our indicators yesterday, so a bounce was due. Where we go from here is the question. I don't think we're heading back to new all time highs soon. I could be wrong but we're seeing some crazy price action in different stocks. Not to mention the TRIN has been getting some out of whack readings in the past two sessions. It all leads to uncertainty and the market never likes that. GDP came in about where expected but the market is marching to its own beat right now. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and we'll see how things square off. GE was off over 1/4 on good volume. Gold lost a touch after being higher early on. Silver had a good day but it too fell back from the best levels of the day. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU jumped over 7 points, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was above average. It was a plus to see the gold shares outperform gold. My open order for the GDX February calls remains out there. The gold shares had an upside gap at the open, so my order didn't have a chance to get filled today. Once again I have to decide whether to chase things here but I think I'll just leave my order out there and see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX turned lower today and most of the short term technical indicators have rolled back down. After closing above 35 yesterday unless we are about to see a really huge decline, the VIX should settle down. The 35 level is about where recent selling has stopped in the past six months or so. Of course the volatilty will increase the cost of trading the SPY options. I don't have any trades in mind there right now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 633 points on out of this world heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. It broke to the downside from the sideways channel. We were down from the start and heavy too. So there is something that the market knows that isn't clear to anyone watching. The Fed didn't matter as the decline was robust from the beginning. The indicators for the S&P 500 have now headed south. We're on our way to the 50 day moving average here and almost got there today. There is still a lot of froth in the market, so I don't think the selling is done yet. This could be the start of a long awaited correction. Time will tell on that. We'll see if the GDP report tomorrow means anything. We now know that the price action on Monday for the S&P was a hanging man. GE was up a few cents today on very heavy volume. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar rose on a flight to safety. The XAU fell almost 6 points, while GDX dropped 1 1/3. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX February calls was almost filled. Another day like today and it most certainly will be. I'll think it over again tonight as it looks like the gold shares are breaking down along with the overall market. But we are in the oversold region on most of the technical indicators for GDX. That said we didn't see any large scale selling in gold itself today either. That could change with margin calls of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX soared today and closed above the 35 level. We're already short term overbought on the technical indicators on the VIX. So perhaps today will just turn out to be a one day wonder. But I wouldn't count on it. There were however a lot of stocks that gained today with volume on the most active list for the NYSE. This might just be a short covering situation though, as it has been lately for GME. GME is trading more shares everyday than its float. Crazy times there. I think that has a lot to do with todays decline as the financial stability of the markets could come into question. Just a guess on my part or perhaps there will be a whiff of more regulation. We'll see how things play out going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how these markets fare tonight after todays debacle in the US. Tomorrows trading proves to be interesting.

Hnaging around before the Fed as the Dow lost 23 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The technical condition of the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Short term overbought and staying that way. The TRAN has slipped here along with the NYA and that's something to keep an eye on. But the trend remains up for the overall market until proven otherwise. I don't expect any changes from the Fed tomorrow. Once we get that out of the way it'll be back to the economic data and earnings. First look at 4th quarter GDP on Thursday. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/4 on extremely heavy volume following its earnings report. It did fall back quite a bit from the best levels of the day though. Gold was down five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower today. The XAU was off by 1 1/8, while GDX was little changed. Volume was light. We've had two days now with the XAU down over a point and GDX finishing little changed. Not sure what's going on there. These indexes remain short term oversold. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there. I'm not sure if I want to adjust it to be filled before the Fed or just let it be. My thinking is that the gold shares and gold could rally post Fed since they are already oversold. However there doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in this sector lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term indicators have turned back up here. I really don't have a strong signal or conviction of what the overall market is going to do here. Therefore I'll have to stay on the sidlines with regards to the SPY for now. I'll ponder what to do with my open order for the GDX calls overnight. Asia was lower but Europe rallied overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow.

Volatility was the rule today as the Dow was off over 400 points early on but finished the day with a loss of 37 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to track sideways. Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. We did get a signal on Friday in the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions. I suppose todays price action qualifies for that. Buyers show up no matter what as long as the easy money is still around. We've got earnings, economic data and the Fed to deal with this week. It's already interesting and it's only Monday. The price action today says that we're most likely going higher. GE was off 1/8 on good volume. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume was light. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls and I'm leaving it out there. May be too late though. The VIX was higher and had a big jump early. It is still short term oversold so perhaps there will be some more selling. However the price action in the stock indices is implying higher values for equities. We're still short term overbought for the majority of the stock indexes. We'll know more in the comong couple of sessions. There's a chance today was a hanging man on the daily candlestick charts. That would be bearish going forward but we won't know until we get some more price action. The Fed on Wednesday could get things going in either direction. I'll stick with the open GDX order for now and keep an eye on the SPY options. Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag to finish off the week as the Dow fell 179 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues sideways. Once again the overall market did better than the Dow with the NASDAQ ending the day positive. As long as the small stocks continue to show leadership to the upside, you cannot get too bearish on the market. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. There's no overhead resistance for stocks and there's still plenty of liquidity to go around. The song remains the same. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold dropped $15 on the February futures but did finish up from the worst levels of the session. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell about a point, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares had a gap lower early and made back up a lot of ground during the session. It was positive price action in my mind considering the loss in gold. I didn't place an overnight option order this time around but perhaps I should have. I am looking at the GDX February calls for the next trade. GDX continues to hold on to its support at the 50 week moving average on a longer term chart. If that breaks I would not consider trading the calls. There is a potential head and shoulders top on the longer term chart that cannot be ignored. For now it remains just a potential outcome. GDX is still short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and remains oversold. It's still below the 50 day moving average and that's a plus for the bulls. One week left in January and it's been a pretty positive month so far. We did have a quick drop during the last ten minutes today in the S&P. We'll see if that means anything when things get started again on Monday. Europe and Asia were lower to close the week. I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Today felt like a day of digesting the recent gains or perhaps just running in place. The Dow fell 12 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The major stock averages remain short term overbought. As long as the small stocks are leading the way, higher prices can be expected. No market moving news really as the earnings reports are starting to take hold. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. Given the move lower in the dollar, I would have expected better gains for the price of gold. The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. I did place another order for the GDX February calls only to cancel it before the close. My thinking now is that I'll wait until next week to begin this trade. However I may also just drop this idea as perhaps my thinking here is off. GDX doesn't look to be putting in a sustained rally anytime soon at this rate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and now is back to oversold. It can stay oversold if the rally continues. With no overhead resistance this is possible. I'd like to see some kind of blow off top that moves pretty far from the 50 day moving average in the S&P. But that's just wishful thinking. The market goes where it wants to and rarely cooperates with the wishes of traders. With option premiums remaining pricey with the extra week in the February cycle, we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Waiting for a good technical signal. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Powering ahead to new all time closing highs as the Dow gained 257 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again but remains in a sideways configuration. Once again the overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. There is no overhead resistance as the bulls are in control. It has only been two days of upside but it is beginning to feel like we may be getting to a blow off top if it continues. A new president and promises of easy money for as far as the eyes can see. Combine that with some good earnings reports and the market takes off. We're still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but that hasn't mattered for a while now. I guess we'll just see how far we can go. GE was off a few cents on light volume. Gold moved higher as the futures jumped thirty dollars. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 4 1/4, while GDX gained 1 1/8. Volume was good. I did place an overnight order for some GDX February calls but it was not filled. We had a gap to the upside at the open for the gold shares, so my order didn't have a chance. Looks like yesterdays signals were valid for the gold shares. I'll have to figure out whether or not to chase this move higher. Timing is so important with trading options and that fact cannot be taken lightly. GDX did close below the 50 day moving average so perhaps there will be a chance to get the calls in the coming days. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. This fits well with todays rally. Thw short term technical indicators have rolled over and point to higher prices going forward. The market is moving in anticipation of a liquidity rush with the policies of the new administration. That's my guess for what we're seeing at the moment. We're right up against the top of the Bollinger bands on some of the major stock indices but that doesn't mean we can't go higher in the short term. Asia was generally higher, with Europe up as well. It's a worldwide push into stocks. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Starting the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 116 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up but we do remain overbought there. Janet Yellen, remember her? She's back, this time as Secretary of the US Treasury. Today she claimed that interest rates will remain low forever basically. We'll see what the bond market has to say about that. Regardless, stocks liked what they heard today. We are entering what is usually a seasonal period of weakness for stocks. We'll see what transpires this year. GE was up a dime on kind of light volume. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was what passes for average here these days. The gold shares are oversold and I'm getting a buy signal on multiple timeframes for GDX. The options are pricey but I am probably going to put in an overngiht order for the GDX February calls. This will be a hard trade for me to do because there is no reason that the gold shares simply can't continue lower as well. But the technicals say give it a try here so we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did close above the 50 day moving average. The market will probably be driven by earnings for the rest of the week since there isn't much on the economic data front due. Of course there's always headline risk out there. Fear of some kind of mass uprising during tomorrows presidential inauguration dominates the news. However like I've already stated, this notion seems like the least likely outcome to me. My guess is that is will be business as usual thanks to an overkill of military and police forces. Whatever it takes. The markets will forget about it by the close tomorrow. Perhaps my bullish stance and look for new all time highs will come this week. Asia was higher with the exception of China, while Europe was lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Volatility returned for expiration Friday as the Dow fell 177 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Dow sold off early and was down almost 400 points in the morning. It made up what it could and then moved sideways for the rest of the day. Retail sales came in weaker than expected and that was an excuse to sell. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have rolled over but we're still overbought on a weekly basis. We are still above the 50 day moving average short term. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold dropped twenty bucks on a stronger US dollar. The XAU fell over 5 1/2, while GDX slid almost 1 1/8. Volume was average. Perhaps my idea for the GDX February calls is the wrong one. However we are oversold here now. One of the more reliable timing indicators for the gold shares is just about at the point of a buy signal. Another day like today could trigger it. I'll be keeping an eye on it at the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped early this morning and finished with a gain. It's now above the 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up. The decline in stocks could have been worse today. I'm not sure if the buying was for real or simply option expiration related. My thesis of new all time highs before expiration was wrong. Perhaps my take on things here is more bullish than it should be. We'll see what happens next week. Next week will be light on economic data but heavy on politcal intrigue. The new president will be sworn in with the threat of more violence in Washington. I do not think there will be any more riots there. The trial for impeachment of the former president could begin. We'll have to see how the market digests the news. There should be some earnings out as well. It will be a short week as we approach the holiday weekend now. Plenty of time to come up with a game plan for next week. The caveat here is the option premiums will be pricey due to the extra week in them. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower today as the Dow fell 69 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving sideways. I had expected higher prices during expiration week but that just isn't the case. The market seems to be running in place here. We'll see if we get any fireworks ahead of long holiday weekend tomorrow. GE was up a dime on light volume. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold and the gold shares have been moving sideways since their big drop last week. I'm not sure if it is a consolidation before heading lower or they're trying to form some type of bottom. We have the luxury of time for now as there's an extra week in the next option cycle. I am looking at the GDX February calls for the next trade unless we get a decent signal in the SPY. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the decline. Most of the short term techncial signals here remain oversold. We are going to have to be patient for now because there just aren't any compelling techncial reasons to try the SPY options at this time. SPY remains overbought and we did have a bearish engulfing pattern today on the daily candlestick chart. But that's about it with other indicators not showing a sign one way or the other. Rolling into the next option cycle also puts the premiums at high prices. Therefore we'll just remain in focus and wait for an appropriate signal. Having no position is a position in itself. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trading action. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow lost 8 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index remains in a downward channel, still trying to turn back up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were positive today. They also both remain short term overbought. Not a lot of fireworks for option expiration week so far. The bacground now remains filled with political rhetoric and the coronavirus. Fear of more riots on January 20th dominate the headlines but the market chugs on. I still would not be surprised by new all time highs in the next couple of days but that's just a guess at this point. On the sidelines for now. GE was off about 1/4 but the volume was very light. Gold was off $5 on the February futures. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped almost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares seem to be just marking time here but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out. Not completely short term oversold for GDX yet. I am looking at the GDX February calls but in no rush to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that's a plus for the bulls. Short term oversold now for the VIX but it can stay that way in uptrends. We are still in an uptrend as far as I can tell with regards to the major averages. Again, I'll be looking for new all time highs before the close on Friday. Where we go after that is up in the air. The February option cycle has an extra week in it so the premiums will be high. We are also on the brink of a long holiday weekend. I'll sit back and watch for now. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye for any ongoing developments.

It was an up and down session all day with the Dow gaining 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trying to make up its mind in a downwards channel. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. My case for the SPY January puts has ended. Yes they might still prove profitable to try in the remaining days before expiration but it isn't worth the risk to me. With only three days left in the January option cycle the timing would almost have to be perfect. Had the market continued higher here early in the week, I probably would have given it a try. But we've already worked off some of the overbought condition. I can't rule out another run at new all time highs before the week is out. GE was up 1/3 on average volume and is getting short term overbought again. Gold had a bounce as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar fell back today. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. They did finish well above the lows for the day. Getting short term oversold here but not there yet. Patience is the strategy for now before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remained below its 50 day moving average. This would be beneficial to the bulls if it can continue lower tomorrow. We have yet to see the usual positive option expiration week bias exert itself. Not a big week for economic data. Some inflation numbers and then retail sales on Friday. We do have the beige book tomorrow. Not sure which way things will go here but would not be surprised with higher prices going into Friday. I'm on the sidelines with regards to any trades right now. Asia generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 89 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a downward channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I'm looking at the SPY January puts for a short term trade this week but todays action may already be the beginning of a slide. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are overbought and starting to roll over. That said, it is expiration week which usually has a positve bias. I'm watching things closely and will decide if a trade this week is worth the risk as time goes on. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold was up almost $15 on the futures and the US dollar was positive as well. The XAU dropped 3 1/3, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was on the light side. The gold shares continue to fall and they are not short term oversold yet. The recent bounce in the US dollar is one of the causes for the gold sell off. As long as it is just a bounce, gold will be moving back to the upside in a couple of weeks or so. I'll be looking at the GDX February calls once we've seen a bottom for the gold shares. The February options have an extra week in the cycle so there is no rush. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today but closed below its 50 day moving average. Where we go from here will tell us a lot about this market. More strength in the VIX will lead to a decent sell off. Or if we head lower from here perhaps the VIX can finally break through the 20 level. It's soemthing to keep an eye on. I'll be watching the SPY for the rest of the week and see if a potential trade appears. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Momentum rules for now. Weak jobs report? No problem, as the Dow rose 56 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still in a downwards channel despite trying to turn back up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. It's a teflon market as nothing sticks as far as the bad news goes. Liquidity is king and plentiful at the moment. New all time highs on a daily basis. Starting to go straight up in the S&P. It won't end well but trying to call the end is fruitless. Still short term overbought but we'll probably just run things up into the option expiration. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold got clobbered today. The selling began overnight and simply continued for most of the day. The futures fell over $65 and broke all the recent support levels. The US dollar was up despite the weak employment report. The XAU lost 7 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 7/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish off of the worst levels of the day. GDX had a gap down at the open and that did in any stop loss orders. I dumped my GDX January calls for an 80% loss. Monday had a breakout for gold and the gold shares on good volume so I decided to chase the move. But the price action since then has been negative and the breakout proved to be false. I should have realized when gold dropped on Wednesday as the US government was under seige that it wasn't a good sign. Hindsight is always correct. Today we got a weak jobs number that normally would have meant a rally for gold. Instead it sold off even harder when the market in the US opened. I'm not sure what the reasons are but we've got to respect the price action. I'll wait for GDX to get oversold and maybe try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite having the first trade of the year be a loss. I certainly didn't expect gold to fall off a cliff today. It is just another reminder that the markets go where they want. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares didn't do too bad. The VIX was lower today and we're heading down to the important level of 20, which has contained the VIX for almost a year now. A drop below there would signal even a stronger rally for stocks. I don't see that happening immediately given the overbought condition for the S&P right now. But who knows? Perhaps the blow off top will climb to the moon. Plenty to ponder over the weekend and I'll be checking the charts as well. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish the week as the stock market party is going around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 211 points on heavy volume. It's as if Monday never happened. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. New all time highs in many of the major stock indices. No overhead resistance. Not completely short term overbought for the S&P 500 so there's probably more upside to come. At this rate the employment report won't matter because it will be viewed as a buying opportunity regardless. The bulls are in charge. GE lost a few cents on light volume. Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My GDX January calls are now showing a loss. Still short term overbought for GDX and we'll need to see some upside soon or this trade will be a loser. Perhaps the jobs numbers will get things going higher again. This trade is also running out of time and the time premium is getting sucked out of it quicker as we head to expiration. We'll see what happens tomorrow and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold here but not all the way there yet. The market is getting money thrown at it as it appears that Congress will be in a Democratic spending mood. We are also now seeing selling in the bond market on a large scale. This money is finding its way into stocks as well. Those are a couple of the fundamental reasons, we'll stick with the technicals. Not completely overbought yet but it is beginning to have the feel of a potential blow off top. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to keep an eye on. Price has now moved above the upper Bollinger band for the S&P. This can continue for a while but not indefinitely. It usually doesn't end well. Europe and Asia were both up in last nights trade. We'll close out the first week of 2021 tomorrow. All eyes on the employment report.

It was a stellar day for the Dow as it rallied 437 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. It looks like the democrats will gain control of Congress as the Georgia election results come in. I did not see that happening but what do I know? Evidently traders feel this will help the big caps. The S&P wasn't up as much as the Dow and the NASDAQ posted a loss. We'll see how things play out going forward. The futures last night sold off pretty hard but when the real trading started buying led the way. Volatility has ramped up to begin the new year and I'm not exactly sure what that means going forward. I can say that with the Democrats in charge we'll see the usual tax and spend type of program. The market usually does OK with a blue control of things. Running out of time in the January option cycle and I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now. GE was up over 1/2 on good volume. It is an old style big cap name. Gold got clobbered and lost $35 on the February futures. The US dollar was little changed by the end of the day. The XAU was actually up a point, while GDX shed a nickel. Volume was average. Gold has a big drop and the gold shares don't react? That is the kind of activity that keeps me in the GDX January call trade that I hold. It is about break even after todays price action. Still overbought for the gold shares but todays action has me thinking that the trade could still work. Gold made it all the way back to the breakout point at $1900 and bounced. That could have been the technical snap back that we were looking for before things get going higher again. Or not. Time will tell on this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was all over the place and finished with a slight drop. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. The VIX could go either way from here based on that. The S&P 500 short term technical indicators are still overbought but not extremely so. There's some unrest in the nations capitol today but I think that the market will be more focussed on the jobs report Friday. I'm still looking for higher prices but the price action outside of the Dow today wasn't that constructive in my view. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A bounce back today as the Dow was up 167 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking lower but trying to turn around once again. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here. The fact that we didn't see any downside follow through to yesterdays decline is a plus. I'm still in the bullish camp for now. Perhaps Fridays employment report will change things but that's just a guess as usual. Election results from Georgia will most likely dominate the headlines. I do not expect a democratic sweep and I expect that the market will like that. I could be wrong. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are now trying to turn back up. GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume. Gold added another six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on around average volume. The gold shares are due for a rest after yesterdays stellar gains. Short term overbought for GDX but it would stay that way if this is a rally that has legs. I did place an overnight order for some GDX January calls and it was filled when GDX pulled back early this morning. It is showing a small profit. I am a believer in the breakout that occurred yesterday. We'll see if that belief is justified in the days ahead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits an up market. It did close above its 50 day moving average though. Tomorrow could tell us a lot about just where we're going. I think that we are going to take a run at new all time highs before the January option expiration. That's my take on things at the moment. The first trade of the new year is on. Hopefully I'll manage it better than most of last year. It would have been better to see some upside follow through with the gold shares today but I'm still confident that GDX will be higher before the options expire at the end of next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

2021 begins with a sell off as the Dow fell 382 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a downwards channel. It could have been worse as we were off over 700 points during the session. The beginning of the year buying that I was expecting did not materialize. Instead it was a rush to the exits to begin the new trading year. I'm not sure what it means or how long it lasts. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. They have plenty of room to go lower. The sell off was widespread today with both the NASDAQ and the S&P weaker than the Dow. We did see some buying after lunch in New York, which helped today from becoming a complete debacle. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. GE was off 1/3 on good volume. Gold was the star of the day. The futures there jumped over fifty bucks. The US dollar finished little changed on the session. The XAU climbed almost ten points, while GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. I did have an overnight order for some GDX January calls but GDX had a gap at the open. The order never had a chance to be filled. Today gold broke through the downtrend line that has been in effect since August on heavy volume. This implies that the break out is for real. The XAU also broke out of a massive rectangle pattern that has been in effect for the same time. GDX has yet to do so but I expect that it will. I'm going to chase this move higher and placed another order for some more GDX January calls. It may or may not be filled. Obvious in hindsight but last Thursday was the ideal time for this idea. GDX is overbought but in rallies it can stay that way. We may see a snap back to the breakout points for gold and the gold shares. That would be the spot to purchase calls. But we may also just continue to trend higher from here with no return to the breakout. We'll see what happens overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and closed up over 4 points. The indicators here have turned up and have plenty of room to go higher. That implies some more selling to come. Not sure what led to the selling today. We'll get the jobs report on Friday, which should be a market mover. There's also a special election in Georgia that might cause some volatility after the results tomorrow night. For now we'll take note of what happened today and see where it goes tomorrow. Asia was generally higher but Japan was down. Europe opened the year positive. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.