Finally a down day as the Dow was off 115 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Excuses included Greenspan, the dollar, oil and option expiration. We've been overbought for a while so a decline was expected, really. I don't think it is the start of a long downtrend. GE sold off around 60 cents. Not enough to get those March calls yet. Gold was up over $4 and seems like it will never come down. The XAU was up almost a point and a half. ABX continued to soar up another 75 cents on very heavy volume. How long will it go on? A new gold ETF was launched yesterday and I'm thinking that is some of the reason for the rise. NEM was only up 50 cents and hasn't broken out like ABX. Neither has the XAU as it is at its previous high around 110 and hasn't gotten above it yet. The dollar sunk on Greenspans comments. There is a G-20 meeting over the weekend and the market will wait to see what comes out of that before trading again on monday. Holiday week next week also. I'll still be looking to get some March GE calls and perhaps some January ABX calls. Oil was up over 2 dollars but I think it's just a snapback, not the beginning of a new up trend. I also believe that a pullback towards the breakout that we just had in the indices is in the process now with todays action. It will give you another chance to get some calls. Pfizer was down again today and is looking weaker than I thought. Holding off until the December tax selling is over for that one. Perhaps will stay away for good on that idea also. The weekend has arrived and maybe I will return here before monday.

Dow up over 20 points with advance/declines about even. Volume was moderate. GE continues to be way overbought and up another 40 cents today. It needs a pullback. Gold was off 3 bucks or so today with the XAU down a couple points. NEM was down around a dollar and ABX was around unchanged. The relative strength of ABX is amazing and should be played to the upside on a pullback. Trouble is a pullback just hasn't happened. I've somehow got to be patient or else I could get burned. Pfizer was higher early on but then closed down for the day. Options expire tomorrow, that could skew things. Holiday week next week so some time premium should erode. I would not expect a lot of volume either. So maybe it is time to just sit tight for a couple weeks and plan the next trade. I'm looking for the March GE calls and now the January ABX calls. No plans for a December trade now but that will probably change. Dollar was a little stronger today. Not much else to say here...

It was an up day in the market today. The Dow gained over 60 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up twice as much at one point. Consumer inflation was higher than expected but it didn't seem to matter. That's the way it goes when the advance is strong. The news doesn't matter, it just keeps going up. Gold is the same way for now. It was up almost $5 today. The dollar continues to drop. The XAU was up over a point and a half. ABX was very strong on heavy volume. NEM was up but not as much as it could have been. The money continues to pour into ABX and I am kicking myself for not taking advantage of this situation. I don't know what is worse. Losing money or missing opportunities. I'm hoping today was a blow-off for ABX and that I'll be able to pick up some calls in the coming weeks. Way overbought and staying there, much like the overall stock market. GE was up a little today, at one point up a lot. Time for a rest there I presume and maybe a chance to get those March calls. Pfizer rallied today but I do want to wait there. It is frustrating not to participate in the gold advance. Especially when you lose money going the wrong way and you know the trend is up. But that's what happens when you suck as a trader. Controlling oneself is the key to profits. It can be done, you've just got to be good enough to do it. If not you lose money and eventually will be out of the game. The major trends are there to be taken advantage of. Try to remember that going forward...

Dow down over 60 points today as we finally take a rest. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 negative, with volume a little lighter. Producer prices came out higher than expected. No trades on the OEX for now. Gold was up over $3 and the XAU up a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both higher but not by much and volume was light. No trades pending there either. GE was down 5 cents and continues to remain strong. Need some downside to enter the March call trade. Patience will be required. The January calls remain a winner and I will ride them until the beginning of the year. Pfizer was down a little and I will be waiting around for that trade also. So it looks like I could be in a dormant period here for a while, simply waiting for market conditions to come around in my favor. Or perhaps I am wrong and should step up and buy things now. Always lots of questions in the game with no clear answers. perhaps some short term puts on the OEX could be profitable here. Not sure and will most likely sit it out after the recent lousy trades in gold.

A treading water kind of day with the Dow up 11 points. Volume was monday light and the advance/declines were positive. Got to figure a pullback is near. Option expiration week so anything can happen. I have some ideas but no solid plays. Gold was off a buck and the XAU down 1 1/2. Both ABX and NEM were down. I'm still thinking the divergences are there for a drop but we all know how poorly I've traded gold lately. GE was down a little but not enough to get some calls for this week. I'm still holding the Januarys and looking to go March. Pfizer was up today but no play there yet. Looks like I could be on the sidelines all week. Hope not. Next week is a holiday week. So I'll be just hanging around for that week most likely. I see the dollar was up a little today and perhaps a short covering rally is due. Don't know though. Not much else to say here except the patience and discipline mantra. I'm still learning...

15 minutes to go. I am an idiot. Sold the ABX puts for a 60% loss. Is this a rerun of the last losing trade? Yes. What happened? First of all the timing on the entries was right on. However the macro trend is up on this stock and the gold market. I was going against the flow of money. Stupid. Each time the options doubled. Each time I thought it was the start of a bigger move but these were just down blips in an ongoing uptrend. There's one of the reasons they went wrong. In hindsight, stop-loss orders should have been placed for overnight each time. But I didn't do that. Because I'm a lousy trader. It's true. A legit trader would have protected himself against adverse overnight moves. For some reason I never get this right until it's too late. I look back and say, yeah that's what I should have done. Because it's really all about reducing risk. Although the game involves risk, you don't have to add to it by doing dumb things. The trend here is up for the gold stocks. No sense in buying puts. It's a miracle that they even showed a profit at some point. Now I must learn something from these mistakes or I am doomed. Each trade is different, but these 2 were so much alike it is scary. Fortunately there was not much money involved. But it's still a dumbass loss to take. And who knows, maybe hanging on until next week would have proved worthy. But I bailed out and now my confidence is shot and it will be hard to go on from here. I'm still way in the black for the year and I'm thinking of just hanging it up for 2004. I say that today, Friday but Monday will be a different story. The Dow continues to plow upward, 60 more points today with 5 minutes left. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 positive and the volume is good. GE is up again and I am looking to get some more long term calls on a pullback. Looking for March now. The January calls are still looking good. Stop-loss order in there? No. Way too much time on these. Another point about the recent loss was the commission. It was higher due to more contracts purchased. It seems that perhaps the optimum number to trade is 20 at a time. Of course when the trade is going good, you want as many contracts as possible. But reality says half the trades are going to be losers, so commission costs must be watched. I'll try to regroup over the weekend...

It's still up, up and away for the market. Dow up another 85 points today on 3 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was a little lighter though. We've got to see this thing take a rest. No big decline but something to the downside. GE was up again and the November call trade doesn't look like it's going to happen. I'm thinking of going out to March now. The January calls have tripled. I'm holding and hoping. Gold was up a little today as was ABX and NEM. The volume was light here and I am looking for more downside. My options are only up 50% now and an up day tomorrow will kill them. However the stochastic has rolled over, the negative divergences with RSI remain and I am somewhat confident that lower prices are in the offing. But who knows? The dollar was down a bit today and the steep drop has taken a rest for now. That doesn't mean it won't resume tomorrow. Trading is a difficult game as I have stated many times. There are very few easy trades. The money is out there to be made though, if you're good enough. I suppose I'll be hoping gold gets weak before the weekend. Like I said, the technicals support holding on for more downside here. I'm still checking out Pfizer but it hasn't gotten oversold completely yet. Don't know if I'll do this trade but I'll keep an eye on it. Option expiration is next friday. Will try something if conditions merit.

Up and down, mostly up and then flat at the close. That was the story of the Dow today. Advance/declines were positive, volume was average. The Fed raised rates the expected 1/4 of a point. And ho-hum was the day. GE was flat. I'm still looking to get some November calls there but not yet. Gold was off a couple bucks. The XAU was down a little less than a point. The dollar was up slightly. NEM was down and so was ABX, both on expanding volume. Hmmm, could the divergences be for real? The ABX puts I bought yesterday have doubled. Did I sell them? Of course not. Not that I'm greedy but if the divergence there is real, then ABX should drop some more. How far? If I knew that... The uptrend line is a point away. I probably won't wait that long but who knows. Perhaps a stop-loss order will be called for this time. It couldn't hurt. PFE was down again today. I really need to wait for December on that one. I'll try but you just can't tell in this crazy game. Patience and discipline. They are just 2 of the keys to unlock the door to successful trading. Tomorrow is a semi-holiday. The stock market will be open but I think the bond market is closed. Until then...

Market marking time. Dow off around 5 points on lower than lately volume. Advance/declines were positive. I still feel a pullback of some sort is necessary. GE was up around 30 cents today. No chance for a November trade here yet. Might not happen at this rate. Gold was up 2 1/2 bucks. The XAU was down a bit and ABX and NEM were up a bit. I bought some ABX puts again. Not a lot of money in this trade. There are some divergences. I don't know if this will work but should know by tomorrow with the trade numbers coming out. It's gotta be a short term thing. If ABX is up tomorrow, I am out with a small loss. I think it has a chance to be correct but who knows. The trend looks to be up and it is. But the volume is shrinking and a rest perhaps is in order. Maybe I should have just stuck to GE. Hindsight will tell. But I am giving it a shot, will not dwell on the consequences and we'll see what happens. Pfizer was down again today and patience will be needed there. Not much else to say here...

The markets traded flat today with the Dow up 3 points on lighter than usual volume lately. Advance/declines were solidly negative though. We are overdue for a pause. The Fed meeting is this week with the announcement on Wednesday I believe. The trade number will out that day also. A lot of chatter about the dollar here. It was up a touch today. It has been dropping for so long it is interesting that only now it is getting some notice. Must be near a bottom then. Gold was off under a buck today, with the XAU and NEM down a little. ABX continues to rise though. I wish I had the guts to get some puts on that now. I'm on the sidelines there for now. GE went nowhere today. I plan on buying some November calls when we get a pullback this week. That is the gameplan for this week. Patience and discipline will be required. Wish me luck. Pfizer was down around 40 cents today. I'd like to get some calls there but am now thinking of waiting to purchase them in December after some expected tax selling. It's a longer term deal like the GE January calls that I own. They are still showing a profit and I doubt they will get back to the price I paid for them. At least I hope not. Anyway perhaps we will get the decline I expect here. Nothing serious I think, because those that missed the recent rise will be looking to get on board. I'll still be watching gold and ABX looks like the leader in this group. Not any other ideas here...

Ahhh, stupid trades and bad trades. Reflections of a loser. Actually not all trades are going to work, of course. It is inevitable in the game. However you don't have to help things along by being dumb and not listening to what the market is saying. How can you avoid the brain cramps? I sure wish I had an answer for that. But I don't. At this point it's more of a where do you go from here question. You've got to move on and not dwell on the mistakes. Learn what you can from them. But don't let them get in the way of being a successful trader. Try not to be too hard on yourself. I admit, it's a problem for me. The winning trades kind of take care of themselves. But the losers seem to stick with me for a while. I suppose I don't like being wrong or losing. Nobody does. But you have got to get on with it. There is no use in beating yourself up over bad trades. You need all your energy for the markets and to play the game. You've got to try to keep the losses small and take profits when you've got them. Especially when you make a stupid trade to begin with. It's easy to look back and say these things. It's a lot harder in the heat of the moment. But try you must and try again. It's the nature of the game...

Market continues higher with the Dow up over 70 points. This is about as overbought as I have ever seen it. Volume heavy again but advance/declines were slightly negative. It has got to take a rest. GE up a little. The employment number came in with much more jobs created than expected. But the dollar could not rally and gold went higher by $4. The XAU, NEM and ABX were all higher on good volume. I bailed out of the ABX puts for a 50% loss. What an idiot. From a 100% gain to a 50% loss all in the same week! This was a dumb trade from the start. I had a chance to just get out even when I knew it was a stupid trade, yet I stayed in for a loss. I could have put in a stop-loss order and I didn't. My idea was that gold was going higher, it did and I lost money because? Because the battle versus myself is the hardest one to conquer. Even when the technicals signaled higher prices to come, I still couldn't sell the puts. Foolish. I will never survive with trades like that. The money involved was thankfully minimal. But the trading tactics or lack there of is what is killing me. It does nothing for your confidence when you can't get it right. Just how could you do such a dumb thing? If I had the answer then maybe I could correct it. Sometimes you just screw up. Gotta somehow forget about it and move on with 2 weeks before expiration. There will be opportunities and there will be no time to feel sorry for myself. I canceled the open order in Pfizer but will be keeping an eye on it. I'll try to be back here over the weekend...

The market is on a tear. I mean just an incredible breakout rally. Dow up over 175 points. Heavy volume and 3 to 1 advance/declines again. My thoughts are that there will be no stopping it. The GE calls I own have more than doubled. And they're for January. I suppose I should have been paying more attention but I don't know. Sometimes you're just in a fog I guess. Of course I wish I had some more of those calls but at least I have some. Gold was up around 5 bucks today. The ABX puts I own are now break-even. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume but the action wasn't all it should be in my opinion. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points also. Gold could break out here also. I most likely should have sold the puts when I had a chance. The dollar was down a little today. Tomorrows employment report will be the key for this ABX trade. If the dollar rallies, gold should fall and the puts will be worth something. It's a guess as to what will happen. Pfizer went down big today on some false rumor. I put in an order for the December calls again. I'll try it again for a few days. Anything in the Dow will probably work at this point. Hindsight is everything. One thing about rallies like this. You can throw the technicals out the window. I have been waiting for some type of pullback since we are overbought and it is just not going to happen. You gotta just jump on board. At any rate, we'll see what the dollar and gold do tomorrow and take it from there.

Bush wins and a rally ensues. Dow up 100 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines 3 to 1 positive. Way overbought here. But it can stay that way for a while I suppose. GE was up but nothing spectacular. Gold was up $4 and the XAU was up over 2 points. ABX and NEM had good gains with ABX having good volume. The options I have are barely profitable now. Yesterdays 100% gain is a thing of the past. The dollar lost ground today and its downtrend may resume now. The employment number friday will be key. If it's weak the dollar could fall further and that would be positive for gold. The gold stocks charts aren't completely oversold yet so it's a toss-up really. Not sure what I will do here. Probably hold on until friday but we'll see. As I have said many times before, trading isn't easy. The toughest game in the world I believe. At any rate, decisions have to be made and the consequences have to be dealt with. I'm expecting some sort of pullback in the stock market but it hasn't happened yet. I'm a little tired here so that's it for now.

Election Day. We had a one day reversal. Opened higher and closed lower. Volume was heavy. Advance/declines were positive. Still overbought and I would expect some weakness in the next couple of days. But I believe the trend is up here. Still holding the long term GE calls. Canceled the Pfizer open order. Perhaps if the price comes down, I'll try again. Just missed it last monday. Gold went down big today, around $7. I'm not sure why. The dollar was up but not by much. NEM was down over a buck and ABX lost 50 cents. The ABX options I have are over 100% profitable. I've got a limit order in to sell them. A short term uptrend line on the XAU was broken today. I should be out of these options within a week. But you never know. I'm still a longer term bull for gold shares. I guess we'll see who wins the election and take it from there. If there is no clear winner after today, I would expect a sell-off tomorrow. Busy day for sure and it doesn't get any easier. Employment numbers on friday. You gotta love the game though.

The Dow was up 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were mildly positive. Election Day tomorrow. All are calling for a rally when the election has ended. We are overbought here and quite so. I'm looking for a pullback. It doesn't have to be a big one but a pause is due. When everybody is calling for a rally, it just doesn't usually happen. We'll see. GE was down a few cents, the options are still showing a profit. This is a long term trade which I must remind myself. Gold was down a buck and a half, ABX and NEM were both down over 50 cents. Those stupid ABX puts I have are showing a profit. It's possible that the XAU will break an uptrend line here and that would bode well for those options. It's still a dumb trade. Pfizer was down around a quarter and the open order remains. I might cancel it before the close tomorrow. Will need to check the charts. 3 weeks before expiration so now is the time to look for the opportunities. OEX puts perhaps for the short term. We have an employment number on Friday and the Fed next week. Not sure any downturn has lasting ability here so I'll play it careful for now. Perhaps will look for the Gold calls near the Fed meeting or before, depending on how it plays out before friday. Kind of in a holding pattern until wednesday but you never know.

Sunday afternoon. The dollar looks weaker as do the stock index futures. The ABX short trade is stupid. Yes, there is a divergence but I gotta be honest with myself. I did that trade after hearing somebody on CNBC say that gold had reached a top. I never do stupid things like that and I honestly don't know why I did it at the time. It's totally foolish. Yes, ABX rallied on light volume on friday and that isn't bullish. But I am actually waiting for a pullback to get long ABX or some other gold shares. There is no reason to try the short side. You have to go with your own judgement or convictions in this game. Nothing else is acceptable. What made me all of a sudden toss away my usual good judgement and enter a trade like that? I don't know. You've always got to be on guard against yourself. It is a most difficult thing to do. But sometimes you just blow it and that is what I have done with this trade. I should probably just get out in the morning and move on. That could be the best thing to do. Even if it makes some money it still sucks as a trade. Gold is moving up, with a pause here and there. Like I said, it was dumb and now I'll just have to suffer the consequences of my actions. There are no excuses in this game. You just move on and hope that the mistakes don't repeat themselves. They won't if you have any sense about it. But it is an ongoing battle and I try my best. You just have to have confidence in yourself and your ideas. Believe in yourself, that's the key. Don't let others influence your decisions and choices. Do the research and go with your own conclusions. Your thoughts and ideas are just as good as the rest of the players in the game. In fact they are probably better because you've been playing for quite a while and have seen a lot of things. So hang in there, stick with it and good things will happen.

The weekend has arrived. Dow up 22 points on lighter volume today. Advance/declines were positive. Gold was up over $3 today. ABX and NEM were up also but the volume was lighter than it has been lately. I made a trade. I now own some ABX puts. The negative divergence is still there and I am taking a shot here. Not a lot of money at stake here. We are at the top of the trend channel. Not sure what the exit goal will be. GDP was under 4%, how could it not be. The dollar fell but not by much. There is the election to get through. GE was up a tad, the long term options remain in the plus. I still have the open order for Pfizer. Lots of crosscurrents here but decisions must be made and trading must go on. The election looms large. Hopefully we will have a definite winner by wednesday. If not, I think the market will fall. I'm thinking of putting some more long term money to work in the mutual funds early next week. We are overbought on the Dow and OEX though. I'll need to see some weakness. I might get back here this weekend after I've had a chance to unwind from the week.

Not a lot of movement today. The Dow was up 2 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. It is good to see that the volume has come back into the market. We are somewhat overbought here and a pullback before the election is expected. Tomorrow we have the first GDP report for the 3rd quarter. Around 4.5% is expected but I can't see it coming in that high. We'll see. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was off a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both down. Still a negative divergence on a couple of gold share charts. That may prove worth standing on the sidelines for now. The dollar was down a little today. GE was up a tad and the January options are showing a profit. I'm holding these for the long haul barring some unforeseen event. Pfizer was down today and I am leaving the open order active. Oil was down another buck and a half. China raised its interest rates which was a mild surprise. More tomorrow...

This site is having problems again. Might have to find a new one. Market up big again on good volume. Dow up over 110 points with 2 to 1 A/D's. GE up along with PFE. I'm leaving the open order for PFE although it looks like I missed it. Timing was right on but the option never got to my price on the ask. Gold was down a bit today but the gold stocks went down regardless of good earnings from NEM. Oil got clobbered and the dollar was up a tad and that didn't help the gold shares. There looks to be a negative divergence on some of the golds now and I am thankful that I didn't chase the move. That is something to remember, don't chase the move. GDP is out on friday and the dollar will move on that. I'll try to stay on the sidelines I suppose. Still plenty of time on the November options. My thinking is that this move in the market is real and I will look to perhaps add some more money to my mutual funds on any pullback. Long term money doesn't have to be timed as accurately but every little bit helps.

Still a half hour to go today. I have to leave early so the post must be done now. The Dow is up over 100 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 positive. GE is up around 50 cents. I still have an open order for December Pfizer calls but the stock is up again today and it doesn't look like it will be filled. I'll keep it open for now. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU was off a little as is ABX and NEM. The earnings came out on ABX today and they were not as good as expected. It sold off at the open but has since come back. There is a potential bearish candlestick pattern there today. I'm holding off for now. But the volume keeps coming into this issue and I would like a position in November calls, hopefully in the next 2 weeks. The money coming into gold has been pretty good so I've got to believe that it will continue to push higher. Dollar weakness is the key and that chart looks pretty bearish but could be due for a bounce. It is not easy to sit on the sidelines but chasing moves is not something that I feel confident doing. Patience is the key and I've got to wait for a pullback. If that doesn't happen there are always other games in town. But the volume is saying that gold shares are heading higher and I 'd like to take advantage of that. It's never easy, this game of trading. But the rewards for being astute are there for the taking if you're good enough. We'll see...

Sunday. It looks like the dollar is continuing to get killed over the weekend. This should bode well for gold. I need to find a way to get a position. However, it is much too late. My only hope is for some type of pullback, remote as it seems. I am now looking to go in another direction. I have checked out Pfizer in the drug group and have an order placed for some December calls. They are priced for the stock to fall a bit more here but it has already been smashed. The technicals are blown out to the downside and a bounce is certainly due between now and December. If Bush wins the election, and that's no certainty, then these shares should rise and the calls also in value. I'm not looking for the usual home run here. Just a simple bounce trade, hopefully, with a 100% profit. I am not taking a huge position here. It is very modest. But I think the idea is feasible and that it will work. I will have to remind myself that this isn't going to be a big winner. It is so tough to do. The overall market looks like it wants to continue down on monday also. I will be playing golf before the close so tomorrows posting perhaps will be late or not at all. The time changes in a week so one last round of golf before that happens. Also balance is important when dealing with the markets. You really need a break once in a while so you don't burn out. Your mind needs to rest so it can stay fresh. It is much better to trade with an open and clear mind than with one that has been so consumed with trading that it fails to see anything else. Don't get me wrong, the work must be done and kept up on a daily basis. But there is also time to take a break and get away from it all. You will need to know when you need to do it or else your trading will suffer. You can't run your brain at 100 miles per hour constantly without risking burnout. As much as I love to trade I also understand that there is more to it than just that. Balance is essential.

The Dow got pounded today, down over 105 points. Volume was good. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. I think the market is pointing to a Kerry victory. Just a guess but that seems to be what the market is saying. Gold was off 30 cents today. ABX continues to move higher on good volume. My GTC order did not get filled and I canceled it. ABX has moved away from me. NEM was down today a few cents and I am looking to go there, if possible. The XAU was up a few cents. ABX earnings on tuesday and NEM earnings on wednesday. I have no idea what to expect but I wish I were long both. Cannot chase the move though. It's not easy. GE was down today and my way out January options didn't move. Perhaps I'm early on this. Don't know. Still lamenting not being long some gold shares. The dollar continues to weaken. I'll hope for a pullback in gold next week to get long. The shares are up against the top of the Bollinger bands so I think the upside is limited for the next couple weeks. Not completely overbought but getting close. OEX is breaking to new recent lows. Not a good sign but the technicals are oversold. Extra week on all the options makes it difficult also, pricewise. It's hard not to beat yourself up when you see the moves you were expecting yet have no positions to take advantage. It's not about the money. Really, the money doesn't matter. What matters is your performance. How you deal with the markets. You've got to live up to your own expectations. This has to do with how you trade and not how much money you make. Success is measured on your own terms, not a monetary figure. That may be hard to understand but that is the bottom line...

Dow down 20 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though. Uncertain what is going on here but I'm going to put some more long term money to work in my mutual funds tomorrow. Tradingwise, no OEX trades for now. GE moved up today. I wanted to change the price on my GTC order today because it appeared GE was breaking an uptrend line. When I went to the site to change it, lo and behold, my order had just been filled. So I now own some January GE calls. Eons of time on this trade. Gold was off 50 cents, ABX fell a little and NEM was up. The XAU was up slightly. I placed a GTC order for some November ABX calls, trying to get ahead of the earnings report next week. I don't like chasing it here but do not want to be left behind if this move keeps going. Do not know if it will get filled and may possibly cancel before the weekend. The dollar has been getting killed this week and quite frankly, I would have expected a better move in gold. But we are at long term resistance there. However if it breaks through, I do think it has a chance before the November expiration, then the gold stocks will rally pretty good. This is just a guess as are all things in this game. Some are more educated guesses than others. It is hard for me to remain patient and I struggle with that issue on a daily basis. Control of yourself is the key to getting things done properly. The battle within continues...

The Dow down 10 points today on good volume again. The volume has picked up here for some reason lately. Advance/declines were positive. The market had sold off but came back some. GE was down and I now have a GTC order in for the January calls. Plenty of time for this trade. I don't normally go out so far in time so we'll see what happens. Gold was up another $3 today. The XAU went along this time, up almost 3 points. I did put an order in for some ABX calls since my other GTC order had not been filled. The price moved too far so I canceled the GTC and went up to the next strike price. After not being filled for an hour or so I checked the charts and although I do like this idea, it looks like I have missed the move this time. ABX has already gone up a dollar. Perhaps it will come back and build a better base. I canceled the order. I would like to be long before the earnings next tuesday but it has already started to move. We'll see what happens. NEM was up over a buck today on heavy volume. So the money continues to flow into these issues. I'll try and find a way to follow it. No OEX trades for now. Premiums too expensive. Summation index still pointing down but the McClellan oscillator looks oversold. That's it for today.

Interesting day, however I was stuck in jury duty. I managed to see the close in the jury hall when I was able to change the channel on the TV. The Dow ended down around 60 points and would have been worse if IBM wasn't up over $3. It was up 50 when I left early this morning. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was actually heavy. Indicators are getting oversold but I don't know if today's volume was climatic or perhaps the beginning of a protracted downturn. It was a one day reversal for sure. GE was down and the January calls are getting down to where I'd like them to be. But it looks like GE has more to go. Gold was up over $4 today but the XAU could not even rise a point. This doesn't bode well for the gold shares. However ABX was up over 40 cents on good volume. NEM barely moved. Mixed and now uncertain in my mind for sure. I am leaving my GTC ABX order open. Perhaps I will move to NEM. I don't know. When the XAU can't get going with a good move in gold it makes me wary. Perhaps ABX can come back to it's uptrend line. That would be the ideal scenario. Or maybe this is the beginning of the next move up. I don't know and will wait it out for now. Trading is tough, make no mistake about that. An extra week on the options might let me be timid here and allow for more decision time. But if the time is right, the price is right. It has to be. It may not be exactly what you want to pay for it, but if the move begins you wanna be with it. Unsure what the action today in ABX means. Things will be back to normal and I'll be in touch with the market as usual. You really must be dedicated to the game I believe, to gain an edge. It is better to stay in a normal routine when watching the market. It is easier to spot the common and the uncommon. Hard to say what the market is saying here but I think it is headed down for the Dow. The gold market is tougher. I'd like to see a lazy pull back to $415. Wishful thinking...

Monday in the markets. Dow up over 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Lots of data out tomorrow with inflation and housing reports. I'm thinking the market can rally a bit here but I'm not convinced it can sustain it. We'll see. Gold was off a couple bucks today. The XAU was down around 1 3/4 points. ABX and NEM were both down but not much on average volume. I placed another GTC order for some ABX calls. We are getting near the uptrend line and I am banking on it holding. ABX announces earnings next tuesday and I'd like to be long before that. It is oversold on the daily charts also. Gold is around $415 and needs to hold $410. If not I will assume a downtrend is underway. GE was up today but the technical picture is mixed and not giving a solid buy signal yet. Would like to see it pull back before committing to the January calls. Not much else on the radar screen. With a 5 week option cycle the prices are expensive. However if a legitimate signal appears it must be acted on. I've got jury duty tomorrow so I will be unable to follow the markets as usual. Hopefully it will only be for one day.

We got a small bounce today with the Dow up around 35 points. Volume was expiration heavy and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. OEX calls could have been purchased today for a profit. I stayed on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today, it was up a little. The XAU was up quite well though, almost 2 points. These two have disconnected recently and haven't been in sync. I don't have a reason but would guess it has something to do with the expiration this week. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I will purchase some calls on one of these issues next week. I'd like to get a good price but they are expensive with a 5 week option cycle for November. If and when they get to their up trend lines I will be purchasing calls. I still believe the trend is up for now and that this theory will work. I will hope for a pullback in gold to around $410 and see what happens there. It's a tricky play. The dollar has gotten weaker this week and that seems to be the key for gold. We had a good sell-off in the precious metal and it has come back. I interpret that as bullish and hopefully correctly so. Like I said, I'd like to see the options get cheaper and then make a purchase. Patience, yes. But I don't want to be left behind either. GE was up a tad today but I think the market has lower to go here and will take GE with it. I'm still looking to January there. The weekend has arrived...

Markets continued down today, the Dow off over 105 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were negative but not as much as yesterday. I really wanted to buy some OEX calls today. There is a buy signal on one of my indicators. The McClellan Oscillator is oversold at -121 also. There is only one day left. It would have to be a quick scalp trade. I had to battle myself not to do it. I suppose I really need a longer time frame to be confident. Perhaps another time I would have done it. But risk has got to be managed. Gold was up around $5 today. However the XAU did not move along with it and was only up fractionally. That is never a good sign for the gold stocks. I canceled my open order for November ABX calls. I still want to buy them but will wait it out for now. NEM and ABX were up slightly today on light volume. GE was down again, no trade there yet. Oil was higher again. Eventually oil will drop and the market will take off to the upside. I should be putting some more long term money to work in my mutual funds before that happens. Hopefully...

The Dow lost 75 points today as oil hit new highs. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. So much for buying calls on the OEX. I almost did. However one must remember one of the golden rules. Don't try to get long when the summation index is pointing down. Especially when it is just starting down. Perhaps after it has been in a downtrend for a while you can try to step in but not at the beginning. Gold was off a couple bucks but the XAU got hammered, down almost 3 points. It was down more than 4 at one point. NEM was down around 50 cents but really held up rather well considering. The volume was huge. ABX was off 60 cents and I put in an order for some November calls. Far from the price right now but I'm expecting a bottom to form and that should take a while. There is an uptrend line that hasn't been violated and when it hits that line I would like to be filled. If the line doesn't hold then I will get out with a small loss. But I expect the line to hold. NEM possibly will be the better play this time and I will keep an eye on it. GE was down and I'm still looking out to January there. The basic materials got slammed today and I am guessing it might have been option related for the big boys. I was wrong in which way they'd run it. Final presidential debate tonight and perhaps something will happen. Dollar was higher. I'll try my best to sit on the sidelines before the expiration but you never know.

This site has been screwing up lately. The Dow was basically unchanged today, down around 4 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. I don't have a clear signal but would like to buy some OEX calls. I'm trying to do the right thing which in this case may be to do nothing. Gold got killed today, down $7. The XAU was off almost 3 points and NEM was down over a dollar. ABX lost ground also. Perhaps my feeling that the gold stocks would be run up into the expiration was wrong. It's looking that way now. Oil sold off today also and all the commodities seemed to take a hit. I'm still looking to get long for November and ABX has pulled back to the $21 breakout point. Lots of time but I will have to wait for the technicals to give a signal. Patience will be key and it usually is. GE was unchanged. The summation index is pointing down now so it's tough for me to make a commitment to the long side. Anything can happen expiration week though.

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More technical problems with this site today.

It was Columbus Day today so the trading was light. Dow up around 25 points, advance/declines slightly positive. I'm leaning for some calls into expiration if we get a pullback in the next couple of days. If not I'll try to stay on the sidelines. Gold was down around a buck. The XAU was down all day but made a late comeback to be down only 3/4 of a point. ABX was down a nickel and NEM was off a little, both on light volume. I'd like to roll out to the November calls on ABX but don't want to be early. Timing, as always, will be the key to profitability. I still think gold has a ways to go. And I still believe the big boys will run these issues up into the expiration on friday. The calls today didn't get cheap enough to buy though. GE was up and that bodes well for the OEX call speculation. Not really looking at anything else right now. Am wondering if there will be a terrorist attack before the election. Haven't heard a lot about that lately. Markets should be a little more active tomorrow...

We waited all week for today's employment number and it came in weaker than expected. The Dow lost 70 points on lighter than usual volume. Advance/declines were about even. I am now looking to get some OEX calls for expiration week. Why? We had every excuse to really sell off today but did not. I think we will see some rally next week. This will be a very short term trade if it happens. With the weak data, the dollar slid today and gold was up around $5. The XAU was up over 2 points but closed on its low. NEM and ABX were up also but not as much as you would expect. The volume was low compared to what we have seen lately and they both also closed on their lows of the day. It could have been a banner day for the gold stocks but they are extended here. I'll look to get long on a pullback in the next couple of weeks. GE has in line earnings and sold off around 30 cents. I'm still in the market for January calls when the price is right. Time for the weekend and a thorough check of the charts before attempting to trade next week.

Down 114 points on the Dow today and it closed near the low of the day. Volume was good and the advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I don't own any OEX puts. In retrospect, I should have purchased a few at the close yesterday. There was a short term signal on one of my own indicators. But I did nothing, probably because I was too busy second guessing the sale of my ABX calls. It is always a battle amongst myself. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down almost a point. NEM and ABX were also down but on light volume. I might possibly get some NEM calls for expiration week if things work out that way. I'm looking for ABX to pullback to around 21 and I am going to go out to the November options on that. GE was down today and I did not buy any calls for the earnings report tomorrow. Employment number tomorrow and it will all trade off of that. If today is any indication, it will be a weak number. But we'll find out tomorrow. The ABX trade ended up 240% and the profits were big because I owned twice as much as planned. My account is back in the black and barring some real stupid trades on my part this will be a good year. I am now in the position of having to search for a new trade. Patience and discipline are needed. It's always hard for me. 6 days until expiration and I will probably try and do something. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.

The Dow continues to climb, up over 60 points today. Even with crude oil hitting a new high. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was OK again. I'm laying off the OEX puts for now. I bailed out of my ABX calls today. I fear that I may have gotten out too soon. They do have 7 days left on them and the XAU closed strong, near the highs of the day. I sold half of them in the morning and then decided to just get out of the whole position. Gold didn't move much today and ABX was up a dime on good volume again. NEM was up 30 cents. The technicals are all way overbought on ABX and have been for a few days. I don't know how much longer that situation could go on. The profits were pretty good, I had twice as much as originally intended. But I can't help but think that this issue will continue to get run up into the expiration next friday. If we do get some type of pullback in the next couple of days I might be tempted to purchase some NEM calls for the last few days. That remains to be seen. Perhaps I could have just held on to half the position to see where it might lead. GE was up today and I was considering some calls before the earnings come out on friday. However the technicals really weren't clear on a buy signal and I haven't been watching it as closely as I should for a trade. Trading is tough. It is not an exact science. It is difficult and it seems I always second guess my moves. Honestly, I was happier with my exit on the recent failed OEX trade last friday than I am with my actions on this trade. I just have the feeling that ABX will ultimately go higher before the expiration. We'll see. Employment number on friday. Will possibly get short tomorrow.

Yesterdays blog never printed. Quick recap. Gold bounced back over $4. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX up around 60 cents. The Dow was down about 40 points. Advance/declines were even and the volume was OK. ABX is overbought and I expect some type of pullback. It is probably time to sell but there are 8 days left. The employment number looms large on friday. I'd like to get some OEX puts again but am not totally convinced. I'll be back with todays report later. Hopefully this will print.

Todays post was lost in cyberspace. Stupid computer.

A mixed market today with the Dow off around 40 points. The OEX and SPX barely moved and were off slightly. The Nasdaq was up a tad. Volume was lighter than yesterday. I really would like to get some OEX puts but am holding off. And fighting myself to do so. I'm thinking the employment numbers on friday will be good to help Bush in his re-election bid. That's just a guess but who knows? The technicals are overbought at this point but could work that off by friday. Sidelines for now. Gold bounced back over $4 today. The XAU was back up 2 1/2 points, NEM was up over a dollar and ABX rose around 60 cents. These are all waaay overbought. There has got to be a pullback. The volume on ABX continues to be robust to the upside and there are 8 days to go on the options. As long as the volume keeps up I'm gonna stick around. ABX just broke the resistance at 21. It should pullback and then resume to the upside. I can't believe it's gone this long. The options have tripled. But nothing has been banked yet. I still haven't gotten the RSI exit signal but it could be soon. It has been a great run so far. My thinking is that the big boys will run gold up into the October option expiration. Again it's just a guess but the volume has been more than I've seen all year practically for ABX. Of course it's nice to have a profit but it will be better to trade it properly in the long run. It's never easy. Tomorrow is another day...

The Dow was up over 20 points on good volume for a monday. Advance/declines were positive. We are getting overbought here and I expect a pullback. I'd like to try the OEX puts again if I can figure out the proper timing. If we rally into fridays employment report, then I'll get short ahead of the report. If not I guess I'll be on the sidelines. Gold got clobbered today, down 5 and a half dollars. The XAU was only off a little more than a point. ABX was somehow unchanged. ABX is holding up well in the face of bad news. This thing has got to go down one of these days. It would actually be better if it did to work off some of the overbought condition. It's at the top of its Bollinger bands on the daily and weekly charts. Volume was solid again today. Money continues to come into this issue. I have know idea why. I'm staying with it for now but it is a tricky call. It is acting very good though, I can't deny that. NEM was only down around 30 cents here today. GE didn't move much. I'll be looking for a spot to buy those OEX puts again but I know I have to be very careful. We'll see what happens.

The Dow zoomed to the upside, up around 110 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Unfortunately my open order for OEX puts was filled right at the open. I caught the high in the contract for the day. In hindsight, I should have canceled the ticket yesterday. The beginning of the quarter money poured in today. I made a mistake. I should have seen it coming. Perhaps my concern for gold took my complete attention away from the OEX. It is a difficult game. I need to get better. I sold the OEX puts for a loss near the close. No sense in holding on, although the time factor would be in my favor. I took a 55% loss in one day. Luckily for me I did not have a lot of money involved with this trade but it is a loss none the less. Not a good way to end the week and approach the weekend. Gold didn't do much today. The XAU was down around a point. NEM was down a little. ABX did not move. The volume slowed on the decline. That's usually a good sign. However ABX has not pulled back, which I would like to see before we get going to the upside again. That's a best case scenario. 2 weeks to go for that one. It is up around 100% at this time. I'm looking for some more upside before exiting. Might get back here this weekend.

Bad news from Merck was the reason for today's 55 point loss in the Dow. They are pulling a drug off the market and lost 25% of their value. Wow. Volume was heavy due to all the selling. Advance/declines were positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts. Haven't been filled yet however I'm not so sure about this trade with the positive breadth lately. I'm still willing to risk it though, for now. Gold moved up $5. The XAU was up 2 1/2, NEM up over a buck and ABX up a half. All with heavy volume. There's gotta be a rest in here sometime. My ABX calls are making money and still have 2 weeks to go. Gold and the gold stocks are way overbought here. I'll need to be careful. The dollar got clobbered today and that is the most likely reason for the rise in gold. I'm hoping not to be so greedy and it's hard to do. I'll see how far this will run, I suppose. I plan on using RSI for the exit when a signal occurs. GE didn't move much. Tomorrow starts the 4th quarter and I assume some buying will take place and perhaps those OEX puts will get filled. We'll see...

Just another day in the markets. The Dow was up around 60 points. Volume was about the same as yesterday. Advance/declines were slightly positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts and at this rate it will be filled tomorrow. Not so sure about them now. However if it looks like they're not going to work, I'll dump them for a small loss. Hopefully. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. NEM was about unchanged. The only positive was that ABX moved up around a quarter on heavy volume. We are overbought here and I don't know how long it can stay like that but ABX is starting to act good. It will probably back off here but with 2 weeks left I think that this will work. I'd like to see the overall market stall out tomorrow. That would give the OEX put scenario a chance at being profitable. End of the month and we could get some swings Thursday. We'll see what happens.

Got some movement today but I don't know why. Dow up around 90 points on more than 2 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was a little better but nothing great. I'm taking this as the bounce I was looking for and have an open order for some OEX puts. If we get some more upside tomorrow they might get filled. Gold was up over 3 bucks today. The XAU responded by moving up 3 points. NEM was up good over a buck and a half. ABX was up but it was disappointing, only a quarter on heavy volume. My options are showing a slight profit but the action hasn't been as positive as I would have liked. The price movement just isn't really getting going to the upside. At this point I would rather be holding NEM. But I'm not so I will deal with what I've got. The volume has been good in the gold stocks, so I'm assuming they have more to run. It won't be a straight line mind you but there is over 2 weeks left there. If the OEX trade gets filled I won't be looking to hold on to it forever for that is a much more difficult market to trade. It's only tuesday but the markets seem to be back in a trading mode and hopefully I will be able to take advantage of it.

Monday blues and blahs as the Dow was down around 60 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative on the usual, light as of late volume. Would like to see a bounce to get short as the trend is down. Hasn't happened yet. With the rollover of the summation index any short play should work before the October expiration provided you don't get greedy. GE was down again but those January options are not cheap enough for me yet. Gold was up a buck and change. The XAU, NEM and ABX were all up fractionally. Not a lot of movement and they are all overbought. Again, just running in place on ABX does not look good for me. The options are stuck right where I purchased them. I don't like it. Time is on my side for now but a big move in the wrong direction will kill this trade. Would have liked to see the XAU follow through on the breakout, taking ABX with it. Will really need to cut the loss here since I own twice as much as preferred. If we can't get some upside traction soon I'm gonna have to get out and start looking for something else. The weekly charts look good on this though so there is hope. I'll try to be patient but I'll also try to be coherent...

Dow was up all of 8 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. Still might get a chance to short this thing. The summation Index has rolled over. I'll hope for a little rally and check prices on the puts if that occurs. Gold was off over 2 bucks today. The XAU was actually up a little as was ABX but I don't like the action. The XAU sold off in the last hour, never a good sign. Maybe it was weekend related, maybe not. ABX has had good volume the last 2 days and hasn't been able to move. That is not a positive. The options I hold are back to where I bought them. 3 weeks to go on these things which is the only positive at this point. Technicals are moving to overbought. I don't know. Perhaps should have sold half the position today at a small profit. That would have been the prudent thing to do. GE didn't do much today. I'm holding off there right now. Will check all the charts and perhaps get back here this weekend.

Dow down another 70 points. Advance/declines only slightly negative and volume was nothing special. Puts would have been nice. Gold rallied over 3 dollars. However the XAU was barely positive. Not a good sign. ABX had good volume and was unchanged. Not good news there either. The options moved up a little early and then moved right back to where I purchased them. This is starting to look like a bad trade. Not that it can't still work out but the action since taking the position hasn't been stellar. I would have expected the XAU to be able to work its way higher but it hasn't. It was up for most of the day and faded in the last hour. Not a good way to end the day. GE was down again today however the options I'm looking at are not attractive just yet. We'll see about gold tomorrow...

10 minutes to go and it's a big down day. The Dow is off around 140 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 negative. OEX puts were the way to go but I think there will be another chance to buy them in a few days. The options really don't move a lot in the first week after expiration. There is too much time left on them. A little rally in the next few sessions and I might be able to buy some puts for the same price as yesterday. Gold was off a little over a dollar today. The XAU is down around half a point. There was no follow through. I don't like that. ABX is holding up rather well and is only off a few cents. Volume is heavier than normal. The options haven't moved. That's a plus. The dollar was stronger today and is probably the excuse for the gold stocks not moving today. We'll see about tomorrow. Dow moving to the lows of the day. Trading is all about timing. I thought the XAU was breaking out. The next 2 sessions will tell the tale for that.

The Dow was up a little over 40 points today after the Fed raised the funds rate another quarter point. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was nothing special. No clear signal here. Gold rallied over 3 bucks and the XAU started to move. It was up over 3 points and has broken out above 95. I am trying the breakout with ABX. I had an order in for some calls and it wasn't getting filled. I tried to cancel the order near the close, since I was going to put in another order at the ask in order to get filled. The order wouldn't cancel so I placed the other order, which got filled. To my surprise the original order at a lower price also somehow got filled a minute before I placed the higher priced order. How or why this happened I do not know. But now I hold twice as many calls as I wanted. Has this happened before? Yes. The disastrous GE trade at the beginning of the year. Now here the XAU is breaking out in my opinion. I think this trade has a good chance to work. But you never know in this game and I really should put in some stop-loss orders tomorrow. Or dump half of this position to get back to the original commitment of this trade. NEM was up but not as much as usual. I think it's due to the downgrade of last friday. That's why I decided on ABX at this time. I figure less money will be flowing to NEM this time and that leaves more to head the way of ABX. Just a guess though but what isn't? Gotta run...

The Dow was off 80 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not as bad as a market down 80. Volume was light. The SPX was only down 6 points, so it wasn't what I would call a broad move down. Make no mistake, I would like to get some puts here but I will not chase the move. Fed meets tomorrow. Gold was down a little, the XAU was up almost a point and NEM was up fractionally. I want to get long NEM but will wait for it to get to the uptrend line. It is just about there. GE didn't do much today but did not decline with the rest of the market. We are in a weak seasonal period. However the technicals are not all that overbought. I will try to be patient. I think there will be a terrorist act on our soil before the election. I would like to have some gold calls for that. Or some OEX puts. The timing is everything as it always is. Would not mind taking a chance in October. Reality is that I've got to pay attention and put in the effort and work. Perhaps then good things will happen. I'll try my best...

Option expiration was pretty uneventful as has been the case with the overall market lately. Dow up 40 points with advances slightly ahead of declines. Volume a little heavier than we've seen. Gold barely moved. The XAU was down less than a point. The news was in NEM. It was downgraded today by some Wall Street firm and lost a buck and a quarter on very heavy volume. ABX was off a fraction. Do I get long NEM? Yes, but not yet. Perhaps next week but it will depend on the action. Fed meeting on tuesday. We shall see. If the XAU can hold above 91 then I am getting long NEM for sure. If not then all trades are off for the long side. Would like to get some October OEX puts at some point soon. Will have to check the charts this weekend and get back here on monday.

Another blah day in the market. Dow up 13 points on the usual light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Market was higher on good inflation data then just drifted off for the rest of the day. Gold was off a little and so were NEM and ABX. I'm looking for some kind of trade but don't see anything worthwhile at this point. Perhaps after the Fed on tuesday there will be some kind of signal or direction. The dollar was weaker and gold couldn't move higher on that. Not a good sign for the longs. Internals of the overall market are solid yet no move higher is puzzling. Perhaps it is expiration related. I'm on the sidelines until next week for sure.

The Dow was down 86 points today. I suppose the OEX puts would have worked. But you really have to be quick and pay strict attention with the OEX. Volume was again light and the advance/declines were negative. 2 days before option expiration and I am definitely trying to stay on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was down over a point. ABX and NEM were also down a percent or so apiece. Volume there was light. I will check where the uptrend line is on NEM and get long when it gets there. That is the plan for now. GE backed off a bit and I have to check the charts on that one. Trading is a tough business. Lack of volatility, as we have been seeing lately, makes it even more difficult. I'm hanging in there, trying to stay positive in the face of losses and moving on. Where we go from here is anybodies guess but I'm still of the belief that another trip down in the market will occur. We shall see...

Not much in the way of movement today. Yeah, the Dow was up a little and down a little. Ended plus 3 points. Light volume, advance/declines about even. I'd like to get short but probably shouldn't. Gold was up a buck and a half. The XAU was up good, around 1 and 3/4. NEM was up as well as ABX. Could those gold trades have worked out if I had held on to them? Only time will tell but it would have been extremely risky to hold them. The gold stocks have moved up in the last week of expiration for the past few months. My timing on the buy was off and that killed those trades. I should have waited and now I am stuck here in no mans land. Might have to get some October calls then. Inflation data on Thursday could be a market mover and we have the Fed meeting next week. The lack of volume is not a good sign for strength in my opinion and perhaps we have to go down once more before we get a good rally. Just a guess. Futures are selling off a bit here and the dollar is a bit weaker...

The Dow was basically unchanged today, up a little over a point. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. No economic news today and it is option expiration week. Gold was up a couple bucks with the XAU, NEM and ABX all showing small gains on lighter than average volume. The options I previously owned did nothing. Now for a losing recap. The ABX calls were a 75% loss and the NEM calls were a 62% loss. Ouch! I might go for some October calls if prices are right and a signal develops, which I think could happen. But who knows. The Bollinger bands are converging implying a big move is at hand. Which way it goes is another question. However other technical indicators are oversold so I am believing a move to the upside is imminent. With the OEX this week I hopefully will stay out of the picture. It's getting more overbought but it has been overbought for a while. Not much else to say. Moving on from losses as best I can. Trying to stay focused and look for the next opportunity. Not beating myself up for the latest debacle. Should use stop loss orders but that makes a little too much sense now, doesn't it?

The Dow was up 24 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were positive. I still think this market wants to work higher. But that is not the story today. I took my lumps in gold today, closing out all my positions with major losses. At least 50% on each trade. Gold was up over $3 today and the XAU, NEM and ABX rallied early. As the day went on however the rally stalled. It wasn't a convincing move in my opinion and I noticed the volume was low. I hung on as long as I could but when things started to fade in the final hour I decided to just get out. The dollar was weak again and if that can't get a good rally going, nothing will. With only a week left I could not hold these any longer. Now next week could be great for gold but maybe not and I had already lost too much as it was. This trade along with the early GE blowout this year have really did me in. It seems whenever I take a larger than normal position it always backfires on me. Make a note of that. GE was up a little today and that was a trade that would have worked. I still might look at gold for October but am uncertain at this point. I'll check things over the weekend and take it from there I suppose. Losses are inevitable in the game however I must learn to limit them if I am ever going to make this work on a consistent basis. Am I getting closer to the mission? I sure hope so. But trades like these are steps backwards. Patience is something I just have got to get a hold of. Discipline is another.

It seems like a market that wants to go higher. The Dow was down 25 points but advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up. GE continues to gain ground. The SPX and the OEX were both higher also. Gold lost a dollar and the XAU, NEM and ABX were fractionally higher. The options are still losers. It would take a miracle at this point just to break even. The dollar was higher today. The trade number tomorrow will be the key between a small loss or a big one for these gold trades. They are already predicting a huge deficit, so if it comes in less than that it could be viewed as a positive when in reality it really isn't. Doesn't matter now, my timing was off and losses are the result. Gotta get out and move on unless gold rallies big tomorrow. Not much else to say at this point...

The Dow was off around 30 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were negative. There is a non conformation of yesterdays high on the McClellan oscillator. Would like to short strength tomorrow but I 'm all tied up in gold. Gold was up a couple bucks today but the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down on good volume. Not a good sign for the long side. The calls are all losing money and I am running out of time. These trades will be losers. That's the reality of it at this point. I'll still wait for friday but I don't think it will matter. My prognosis was simply wrong and when that happens, you'll lose money. The dollar was weaker today also and the gold stocks could not rally. So this is real trouble at this juncture. I'll have to try to cut the loss as best I can but it isn't looking good. Volume expanding on the downside and I am screwed. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess. GE is still going higher and the calls there would have worked well at this point. But what can ya do? I'm stuck in gold and it's a loser...

20 minutes to go. The Dow is up around 60 points. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. The volume is light again. The convention is over, summer is over, there are no more excuses for light volume. We have touched the longer term downtrend line at 546 on the OEX. This is the moment of truth for the market. If we get through here, a longer rally will take place. I'd like to get short here but I am already committed to the gold trade. My NEM GTC order was filled this morning as gold was down again today, this time over 3 bucks. The XAU is holding up rather well, off a little over a point. NEM and ABX are both down but not much. However premium is being sucked out of the options and each show a loss. I will still wait for fridays trade number as that was the original plan. But it isn't looking good today. I still think this will work. Perhaps some OEX puts are in the plan, it depends on the market action in the next two days. Greenspan will speak tomorrow and that is usually a market mover. That's it for today, I must end early due to other commitments...

Well the employment number came and went. It was in line with expectations. The Dow ended up down 30 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Hopefully the volume will pick up next week. Gold got hammered, off over $5. The dollar rallied. The XAU was off a point and a half. NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX lost about 20 cents, both on light volume. The gold stocks held up better than I expected, considering the move in gold. I put in an order for some NEM September 45 calls, GTC. Perhaps it will get filled with some weakness on tuesday. My ABX calls are now at a loss. I am still believing that the gold stocks will rally before the expiration as they have for the past several months. The merchandise trade report will be out next week and that will be the key for gold in the near term I believe. There are 2 weeks to go in the options and that should be enough time for a rally and profitable positions. I could be wrong as I have been in the past. But my thinking is that this scenario will pan out. GE was down today, I'll have to check the charts on that one. I will short the OEX when it gets to the downtrend line at about 546. Ideally there will be a divergence in the McClellan oscillator when this occurs. It's a long Labor Day beginning. I'll check everything over the weekend and return to the trades on tuesday.

Finally some movement today as the Dow gained over 120 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The volume was light again and that has been the problem with this recent rise in the market. I don't know if it's believable. We are right at some multiweek downtrend lines in all the major indices. But we are approaching them on weak volume. I would like to get short when we get there which could be tomorrow. Employment report tomorrow. That will be key. There was talk today that the number is already known and that is why we had such a good rally today. Who knows? We'll see tomorrow. Gold was down $4. The XAU was down less than a point. ABX and NEM were off slightly. Considering the drop in gold the stocks held up rather well. Again, how the dollar reacts to tomorrows news will be key. GE was up today but not a lot and the volume was light. Important report tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Things could get interesting...

Hang around day in the markets and this site is having technical difficulties. More tomorrow.

Dow up 50 points today on a little more volume then late but nothing heavy. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 positive. The market was weaker most of the day and started to turn around in the last couple of hours. Economic news was weak. Gold was up a little which was encouraging. The XAU was almost up 2 points while NEM and ABX each gained over 50 cents. Volume was light though so I don't read much into it. My ABX calls are showing a profit again. The US dollar was weak and if that keeps up, the calls should work. Looked at GE when it was weaker this morning but did not purchase any calls. Hard to trade the overall market with such light volume but who knows? Something may happen tradewise there this week. Just gonna have to wait for fridays employment data and take it from there I suppose.

Dow down 72 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines negative. Could be a very slow week, volumewise. Gold was up over 3 bucks. But the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down and fell hard into the close. That is not a good sign. My ABX calls are now losers and if the action going forward is anything like today, they are toast. There are a little less than 3 weeks remaining. I'll hold them here and wait for the employment report on friday. Not a lot of news and not much market interest due to the Republican convention. I suppose in hindsight I should have just let this week pass.

Dow up 20 points with advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive. However as has been the case lately the volume was pathetically weak. Even lighter than it has been. Which, for me, calls this whole rally into question. We are at resistance on the Dow at 10200. I don't see a lot of upside from here without some kind of pullback. Gold was down over $4, to the 402-403 area which is support. It must hold around this level or lower prices are in order. Even with gold down the XAU was up a point. That is bullish in my opinion for the gold shares. ABX was up 30 cents on decent volume but NEM was up a few cents on light volume. I am still holding on to the higher gold price scenario. Perhaps this week was the pullback to the downtrend line we broke through last week. We'll find out with next weeks action. Predictions are for a slow market with not much participation due to the Republican convention in New York. Time will tell. There is the employment report on friday. I'm still thinking about a trade in GE down the road here and I'd like to pick up some NEM calls also. Summer is winding down and things should get more interesting in the weeks ahead.

The site is having difficulties today. I'll make it brief. Dow barely moved, down 8 today. Volume extremely light. Gold was off a dollar, the XAU down around a half, both NEM and ABX down some. Light volume with the exception of ABX. The volume there was better than average and to the downside. I'm not liking that. The calls I own are right where I purchased them. If we keep the lackluster action of late up, the time premium will erode and this will be a losing position. Until tomorrow...

The market moved higher today, the Dow up 83 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume picked up a little but is still very light. Gold moved up 5 dollars. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX tacked on 40 cents. Volume wasn't all that strong though. I think we'll move sideways here for a while and then hopefully resume the uptrend. The ABX calls I bought yesterday are showing a small profit. GE was up a small amount and I am looking to buy some calls but GE isn't really following the overall uptrend here. That makes me wary of this move, plus the fact that the volume is light. Sidelines for now. These seem like the dog days of trading. No volume, not a lot of news, traders on vacation. But you've got to pay attention and you've got to stick with it. You've got to stay motivated and you cannot forget your mission. Timing, focus and desire have to stay true. It will pay off in the long run.

Another nothing day in the stock market. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Slightly positive advance/declines. I can't say that there is anything to move the market at this point. I now own some ABX September calls. My order got filled during the morning, unfortunately I now believe I am way early in purchasing these. The indicators aren't fully oversold. It looks like that there could be an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the US dollar here also, daily basis. I probably should have canceled the order earlier. I still think the trade will work but the entry may have been able to be done at a better level. We shall see. Gold itself got hammered today, down over 7 dollars. However the XAU was only off a couple points while NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX dropped about a quarter. Volume did pick up to the downside though, not a good sign. However with gold down so much these issues should have been clobbered, yet they hung in there pretty good. I'm still of the belief that this is a snapback to the downtrend line that was broken. Trading is never easy. End of summer here and there seems to be no interest in the markets. The Republican convention is in New York next week and there is talk of even lighter volume then due to the logistics. Things should pick up after Labor Day. Perhaps I should have had the patience to wait. There are always other trades though...

The Dow was down 37 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A slight pullback here should be expected. I'm still getting a buy signal from the put/call ratio though. As for the 10-day trin, it's overbought. Mixed signals for sure but I think we will work higher in the coming weeks. I'm looking at GE calls as a proxy for the market. Gold was down 2 1/2 today. The XAU was off a couple points. NEM and ABX were both down but not a lot. Volume here was light also on the pullback. I have an order in for some ABX calls. I think gold is going higher. It broke through the recent downtrend line on increased volume. The next expectation is a snapback to the line broken. I believe that is what is happening now. I will be looking to get some NEM calls also. If any trade is going to work, long gold at this point should. There are no guarantees but this set-up seems to be going the way it should for now. I don't want to get too overconfident but I believe this one is legit. We shall see. Beginning of a new option cycle so there is no rush but I don't want to be left behind again either. The overall market, the OEX and GE is a tougher call. Time will tell. Not much data this week. 2 weeks until Labor day. Might be quiet until then, with the employment report due out the friday before.

Dow up another 70 points. Advance/declines almost 3 to 1 positive. The only thing missing was volume, which wasn't anything great. There was volume in gold though as this market has taken off. Without me I might add. The XAU was up 1.80, NEM up 44 cents and gold itself gained over 6 dollars. I will get long on any pullback and I am expecting one because the technicals on a daily basis are blown out to the upside. But again, you never know. It could just go straight up. I'm hoping it doesn't. But with the volume this strong there is no doubt that the move in gold is for real and has legs. I'll look to purchase September and October calls. As for the overall market I'm not as sure. I'm still leaning upside but with not as much conviction until I see some volume. I do still like the strong beginning of September and a weak second half of that month. But it's a guess. Options have expired for August and it's time to move on.

The Dow was down a little over 40 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not bad. Volume was below average again. Oil shot up around a buck fifty. The Leading Indicators were negative for the second month in a row. Gold was up around 2 1/2 but the gold stocks took off. The XAU had its best day in weeks up over 3 points. NEM was up a buck eighty. Volume on all the gold issues was heavy. It is for real, I believe. The NEM options that I sold for a loss a couple weeks ago would have quintupled if I had held on to them. I can only hope that we get a snapback to the downtrend lines that have been broken on most issues. Short-term the gold stocks are overbought but longer term they are not. I am thinking of going out to the October calls on some issues. But I really need to see some pullback. That may not happen. Yes, I'm disappointed but at the same time I do not want to get too discouraged because this could be the start of a multi-week up move. The stock market looks like it wants to go higher also. Some of my indicators point to this. Perhaps the beginning of September will be strong and the second half of the month weak as I have seen in the past. I will look to buy some GE calls for september as a proxy for the overall market. Perhaps some OEX calls if my timing can get untracked. It is painful to be on the sidelines but what can I say? I'll look towards the future and try to do a better job...

Dow up 110 points. Advance/declines more than 3 to 1 positive. Volume nothing special but you can't argue with the price action. Gold was flat but the XAU and NEM were both up again although not a lot. The expiration rise for gold stocks continues this month yet again. Oil was up but it didn't affect the stock market today. The next question will be, is the rally for real or just a bounce? It's had everything but volume so far. It is important to find the answer to this question because it will affect the trading going forward. It appears that we are about to break a weekly downtrend line on the OEX here. Other technicals point to a bottom here. I'll be leaning bullish unless something changes that view. No trades with 2 days before expiration. Looking out to September and October.

Dow up 18 points, volume light. Advance/declines positive. Market was up higher earlier. Lots of data to digest. No inflation on the consumer level and strong numbers housing and manufacturing wise. McClellan oscillator has turned positive. I think as far as the OEX is concerned right now, the risks outweigh the rewards. Gold was up a buck fifty. The XAU opened lower came back and was up a tad at the close. NEM was down a few cents. Although overbought, this market seems like it wants to go higher as it has into the expiration the last 3 months. I will have to wait it out. Could be missing the next upleg there though. Can't chase it here. It won't be easy but the sidelines are probably the best place for me at the moment. Will fight myself not to buy some puts before the leading indicators on thursday. Not much else for today.

I put in an order sunday night for some OEX calls. It did not get filled. The Dow was up about 130 points today. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. Volume was monday light. Gold was up another $4. NEM was up over a dollar and the XAU was up almost 2 points and closed on the high. It broke through the downtrend line. And I am left sitting here with no positions in anything. It isn't an enviable position to be in. 4 days until option expiration and the risk factor only goes up from here. I suppose I will have to wait for the XAU to fall back to the line it just broke. There is no guarantee that that will happen. There is a possible short play in the OEX before thursdays report on the leading economic indicators. But I don't know if it's worth the risk. Or if I can time it properly, or if it will even happen. And so it goes. I don't know what to say. It is just a very, very tough game. You have to somehow move on from losses and missed opportunities as best you can. It's difficult for me. The trades are out there. But you've got to really be in tune. You have got to be ahead of the game. I think it can be done if you pay attention and outwork the crowd. But who has that kind of commitment? Winners, that's who. This game isn't for the lazy. It's a pro's game. If you don't approach it as such don't even think you'll be successful. Because you won't. I now have to patiently wait for another opportunity to present itself. It won't be easy...

Checking the charts last night, I see a trade in the OEX is warranted. This will be a short term trade, no more than 3 days beginning monday. Calls will be purchased. The OEX stands at around 520 and I will attempt to buy the 525 calls. There are positive divergences on the McClellan oscillator and the RSI. I think a bounce will be in order but only a short lived one. I'll place an order tomorrow night when I see where the futures are. This is a quick trade for there are only 5 days remaining on the options. If a 100% gain is attained, I should get out. It all sounds good in theory, it always does. It looks like it's worth the risk though.

The Dow was up 10 points today on light volume with slightly positive advance/declines. Oil hit a new all-time high. Gold was up around $5 and the XAU was up over 2 points. NEM was only up around 75 cents and the volume wasn't that great. But it looks like the XAU is about to take out a downtrend line that is weeks in the making. Technicals are overbought there though. Will wait to see what happens next week at this point. No conviction for an OEX trade however it looks like some calls might work here. I had to battle myself all day not to buy something before the weekend. If we get a drop in the price of oil, I can see a decent rally taking place. But it's guesswork with no clear signals. The dollar was weaker on trade numbers. Perhaps the decline in the dollar is ready to begin in earnest again setting up a long gold trade. But I don't know. Will check the charts over the weekend. I would like to take on some type of trade for next week. But sometimes no trade is a good trade. Do I sound confused? Sure and I need to sort things out. Will attempt that this weekend and get my mind back into the trade mentality. It's not something that I can turn on and off. Indecision is a killer and it has me in its grips as you can tell by the postings. I'll do what I can...

Dow down again, this time 123 points. Advance/declines fairly negative and a little pick-up in volume. Closed on the low. I'd like to think a bottom of some sorts is near, we are in an area of support at 520 on the OEX. But I don't really know so no trades there for now. Gold didn't do much today, the dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU was up a tad, NEM was down a tad. Treading water there and I have no clear signal but I'm hoping for a sell-off to the weekly uptrend line for a spot to get long. My analysis at this point on things is wishy-washy probably as a result of the recent losses. I have put that behind me and am trying to move forward. However with no conviction on direction, it's probably best for me to sit it out at this juncture and wait for a decent signal. That is what I am trying to do. There are always opportunities but I don't seem to see any at the moment. Trading is not easy. This much we all know. Controlling oneself is even harder but I'm giving it my best shot.

The market was down big early but came back all day to be down only 6 points at the close. Volume picked up a little and the advance/declines were negative. The SPX and OEX were down more, relative to the Dow. Mixed at best. Gold lost over $4 but NEM held up pretty good. The XAU was down a point and a half. Interesting. No trades for me at this juncture but I'm looking. Perhaps a clear signal will emerge before option expiration next week. Seems like after today the Dow wants to go higher. But it's a crapshoot right now and perhaps the best course of action is inaction.

The Fed raised the funds rate 1/4 point as expected and the market rallied. The Dow was up 130 points with good advance/declines. The volume was average or a little less. The McClellan oscillator signaled a big move last night and it happened. We now have a bullish divergence on that indicator. No trades for me here. GE didn't rally as much as the overall market. Could have been some short covering in the market today. Gold did not do much prior to the Fed announcement but the XAU and NEM were up modestly. After the Fed, gold sold off a couple bucks. The XAU and NEM came well off their highs and look like they are poised to go lower. The dollar didn't do much either. See ya tomorrow...

Tried to rally today but ended up unchanged. Volume was light, advance/declines were slightly negative and the new lows expanded to over 600. Would like to get long here for a bounce but the action today implies lower prices. The Fed meets tomorrow. A 1/4 point increase in fed funds is expected. Gold was up a buck, the XAU was down a little and NEM didn't move much. The dollar was basically unchanged. I suppose you could say the markets were in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrow. I have no clear trades on my horizon after last weeks losses. I am hoping gold makes it back down to the weekly uptrend line to initiate a position there. The OEX is oversold but not looking good on the charts. Guess I'll sit on the sidelines unless some kind of inspiration occurs...

Interesting day. The employment report came out very weak. The dollar tanked and gold soared, up $7. The XAU is up over 2 points and NEM, which I sold the calls yesterday, is up over $2. Bad move. The options I had more than doubled. But I don't have them, I took a loss. The calls I do have on ABX didn't move because ABX is up less than 20 cents. And so it goes. I just dumped the ABX calls for a loss of around 70%. If they aren't going to move up when gold is up $7, when are they going to move? They're not. That was a dumb trade all the way around. I basically screwed up the gold trades. When you screw up, it costs you money. I'm back in the red for the year. Market is closing now. Dow dropped around 150 points. Over 300 points in 2 days. I didn't buy any OEX puts and I lost money in gold even though I was long and it went up. Well, I suppose it can't get any worse. I now have no positions and it's the weekend. 2 weeks left on the August options but right now I'm in a trading funk. I suppose I'll have to battle myself to not do something stupid in the near future. Fed meeting on tuesday, that will be the focus of early next week. Not much else for me to say right now after blowing it. I just didn't have what it takes this time around. Really need to listen to that inner voice of reason more often. Might get back here this weekend but I doubt it...

The market got slammed today. Dow down 163 points. Advance/declines heavily negative with a pick-up in volume. Obviously purchasing OEX puts yesterday would have been prudent. But I was too busy watching gold and losing money. Gold did not move today but the XAU and NEM were sold off. ABX also. Near the close I dumped the NEM calls I had for a loss. At one point these had a 100% gain and I held on for a 30% loss. Foolish. Looking back I suppose a stop order would have been smart but that's something I should have learned by now. Disheartening for certain, especially when I should have been concentrating on the OEX. I still have the ABX calls. I bought them cheap and now they're only worth a nickel. Unless there is a complete turn around tomorrow these will be a 80% to 90% loss. I didn't have a lot of money in them but once again it just doesn't pay to chase a move. The candlestick pattern did not pan out in this case. The employment number will be the focus tomorrow, I have no clue as to what it might be. Oil is hitting record highs and is the excuse being used to explain the downside. I suppose I will wait for the XAU to move back down to its long term weekly trendline at 80 and try some calls again down there. Or perhaps I will forget about it and concentrate on the overall market. Either way, losses are part of the game and I will try not to get down on myself. Nobody can be right all the time but I sure could have traded these positions a lot better than I did...

15 minutes to go and I knew I was in trouble with gold yesterday. Gold was only down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM are both down over a buck. The technicals are rolling over. The NEM options are right back where I bought them and the ABX options are showing a loss. Why keep holding them at this point? Why indeed? The only thing they have got going for them is time. At this point the only scenario that will make this work is a low employment number on friday followed by a Fed meeting with no rate increase. Can it happen? Maybe, but I sure don't know. The Dow sold off early and has come all the way back to positive territory. It has the action of a market that wants to go up. I'm laying off the puts today but that doesn't mean that I won't buy some tomorrow. Advance/declines have turned positive. Volume looks like it has picked up a little on the rise. Perhaps a weak employment report would give the markets hope for no rate increase. Again, that's just a guess. The dollar is a little stronger today, however to me it looks like it is topping out here, short term. Advance/declines now back to even. I suppose I'll wait for the employment report. It has been a while since I've had a trade move against me. Somehow, I've got to battle myself into doing the prudent thing. It's tough. There will always be other trades. But it doesn't feel like that when you're in them. Market now moving to flat on the day. XAU near its low of the day. More tomorrow...

The Dow was off around 60 points today. I guess it's not going to wait for me. Advance/declines were negative but not bad for a market down 60. Volume picked up a touch. If we get some gain in the next 2 days I might possibly get short. But it looks to be too late. Gold was up a couple bucks today. However the XAU rallied and sold off hard. It was up a few cents. NEM was actually down a little and ABX was up a tad. I don't like the action. I think I probably should have sold out today. We are up against some resistance in the XAU, the volume was light and it got turned back. We are approaching or are at overbought in the gold stocks. I would like to see the resistance broken on heavy volume but that scenario doesn't look probable at this time. These options do have over 2 weeks left though and that may work in my favor. Trading is a difficult task to undertake. Today is a reminder of that. I don't have a good feel for fridays number but I still think the Fed may do nothing next week. I don't know. Tomorrow is another day but I'm not feeling positive at this point. Perhaps something will happen overnight. Perhaps not...

I purchased some more gold calls today. Barrick Gold, ABX, the August 20's. I put an order in overnight and it got filled. Probably shouldn't have bought them. There was a terror alert on sunday and gold rallied. I didn't think the order would get filled but gold did nothing today and the price of ABX went nowhere so I got them. The action on the XAU wasn't promising either. Opened strong, sold off, came back and sold off again into the close. Not good action considering the news. The NEM calls are still showing a profit but it was off a few cents today. The technicals are looking like they want to roll over and that's not positive. The only plus was that the volume was low. The Dow was up 40 points today. Advance/declines were positive but the volume was low again. We are now overbought. I would like to buy some OEX puts. I think the ideal time would be on wednesday, if it stays up that long. I'll need to check the charts. The employment report is on friday. I do not have a good read on this report like I did on the GDP. I don't know what to expect. The Fed meets in a week and I'd like to say I think there is a chance they will stand pat and not raise rates. The dollar was a little weaker today. As for the market, perhaps today was a function of the beginning of the month money flowing in from the insurance companies and the funds. I'm not sure. It had every reason to sell off and it didn't. That's a positive. However I think the downside will resume here soon. Summation index is turning up, so I don't want to be too sure of myself. And I am already trading the gold which is getting me worried. You have to take chances in the game but you need to be smart about your chances. ABX did have a bullish engulfing pattern on its daily chart and that influenced me as well. We'll see what happens. I'll check the charts and determine if an OEX trade is warranted. Until tomorrow...

Well, GDP did come in lower than forecast. Gold was up $4 but the dollar did not fall, which was interesting. The XAU rallied but not that much, only up a little over a point. NEM climbed 90 cents. My options gained some ground. I almost sold them but decided to wait it out a little longer. The technicals are all still pointing towards higher prices. The Dow gained 10 points, advance/declines were positive. The volume was weak however and I think we are running out of steam here. I will be looking to buy some OEX puts next week for a short term trade. We've got the employment report at the end of next week. That will probably be the catalyst for a move one way or the other. Don't have a good read on that just yet. Might be back here this weekend but it is summertime...

Dow up 12 points today.  Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good.  Maybe a short term bottom is in.  Tomorrow will tell the story.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  However the XAU was up over a point.  Leading gold higher tomorrow as it has in the recent past?  NEM was only up 15 cents today which was disappointing.  My options are still showing a profit but I didn't like today's action.  But I was waiting all week for the GDP report and that will come tomorrow.  The dollar was a little higher today.  My ideal scenario is the dollar falling tomorrow and a good gold rally that hopefully pulls along the gold stocks with it.  Who knows?  The opposite could happen and then I would say the dollar weakness has come to an end for the longer term.  It is right at the downtrend line that has been effective for a couple of years.  We'll see what happens.

Volatility has returned.  The Dow was down 80 points earlier and now is up 60 with 20 minutes to go.  Volume is good however the advance/declines are slightly negative.  GE could have been a tip-off.  It was slightly weaker and then started to rally before the overall market did.  I should keep an eye on it.  NEM announced their earnings and they were terrible.  But after a slight sell-off early it actually started to rally as did the XAU.  A stock that rallies on bad news usually is a positive development.  My option position is in the black.  However I notice NEM is selling off from the highs as we near the close.  Gold was only up around a buck and a half today.  I'm waiting for fridays GDP report on this one, as I have mentioned before.  Again though, anything can happen regardless of the number that comes out.  I would suspect tomorrow to be a day of waiting for NEM.  Maybe some slight downside on light volume.  That's my scenario anyway.  Looking back of course I would be much happier if my overnight ticket would have been filled.  I would have twice the size in this trade and for now it looks like it will be profitable.  End of the month almost upon us and that could move things around also.  Just waiting for friday at this point.