Wednesday, November 04, 2026
A huge rally today on the heels of the US elections as the Dow soared 1569 on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. There was a big gap higher at the open and stocks held most of their gains. The Dow led things higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were up 1 1/2%. The short term indicators for the S&P are now moving up with room to go. It feels like this will be more than just a one day pop but we'll have to see how things move going forward. Next up is the jobs report on Friday. Gold rallied as well with the futures up $130. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU climbed 26 points and GDX jumped 7. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators on GDX are moving up with room to go as well. The near term down trend line on the GDX daily chart comes in at 86. A solid break above that trend line would bode well for the gold shares going forward. Hasn't happened yet. My GDX November calls remain losers but now there is a chance that this trade will work. However we all know that things came turn on a dime in this game, so I wouldn't be so sure that profits will happen on this idea. But now there is at least a chance to get out alive. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and its short term indicators are heading south. It is now firmly back below the 20 level. If the VIX keeps trending down the market will continue to rally. We'll see. Today was one of the better days for the stock market as the rally was broad based. Will things keep moving forward? This question will be answered in the coming days. We are starting a seasonally positive period for stocks though. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, November 03, 2026
Still stuck in a mixed market as the Dow fell 191 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The NASDAQ had a decent gain today as it led things overall higher. The S&P 500 had a small gain. It closed halfway off of the highs for the session. Some of the short term indicators there are pointing up but the S&P remains short term oversold. The US elections are held today and I'm not sure how the market will react to the news there. The jobs report on Friday will probably be the biggest market mover this week unless something happens on the geo-political front. My thinking is that the market should have rallied by now but the technical indicators are not acting as they usually do. A cautious approach is probably the best plan for now. Gold lost $38 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 5 1/2, while GDX dipped 1 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are back to pointing down in oversold territory. My GDX November calls are still big losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. The VIX is still above the 20 level so volatility is still an issue. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll check the election results tonight and see if it impacts prices tomorrow.
Monday, November 02, 2026
A mixed bag to start the week as the Dow gained 213 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 opened with a gap higher only to end the day lower resulting in one day downside reversals. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down, off 1% today. The S&P had a modest loss and the short term indicators here are getting to oversold. I'm not exactly sure what's going on here but we can see that the market is in trouble. US elections tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday will most likely be market movers. The S&P 500 is breaking down from a channel formed on the daily candlestick chart that began in August. The longer term up trend line comes in at 7400. Gold bounced today with the futures up $57. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 7 1/8, while GDX gained 2 points. Volume was a bit above average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have turned up but they remain oversold and GDX finished off of its highs for the session. My GDX November calls continue as solid losers. I'm still looking at a cut the loss trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above the 20 level. This is another reason why the market is facing problems on the long side here. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving up with room to go before hitting overbought. So volatility will be a theme for now. Plenty of time left in the November option cycle but I don't have any SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of Japan. We'll keep watch on this evenings developments.
Friday, October 30, 2026
Stocks got slaughtered today and only a last hour bounce kept it from being worse. The Dow fell 572 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving higher. It broke out to the upside from the upwards sloping channel yesterday which normally would be bullish. But it seems that these are not normal times for the technical indicators as I've mentioned before. I should have heeded my own advice and moved to the sidelines. The NASDAQ led the way down and lost almost 3%. The S&P 500 fell over 1 3/4%. The short term indicators there are heading down and still have room to go. The S&P is now at the lower range of the sideways channel that it has been in since the beginning of August. The weekly indicators are moving lower and have reached the mid-range level. There is a longer term up trend line that comes in around the 7400 level on the weekly chart for the S&P. Are we heading there? Gold got crushed as the futures lost $140 to close well below the 4000 level. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU lost over 18 and GDX slid 4 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are heading lower and not quite yet oversold. GDX has clearly broken down out of the channel it was in since the beginning of September. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that I alluded to earlier on the weekly chart has now been negated. The weekly indicators for GDX are still moving lower and are not yet completely oversold. GLD hit a new 52 week low. Gold never saw any haven bid and is perhaps being sold now to cover margin calls. My GDX November calls are dead no matter how much time is left because they are now too far out of the money. Maybe if we see a bounce before option expiration I can cut the loss to 75% which would be considered a win at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and at one point traded well above the 20 level. It dropped back to close below there. The short term indicators here are now moving up and it closed above its 200 day moving average. It looks like the message here is to expect more volatility in the near term. Quite a day to end the month of October. Still three weeks to go in the November option cycle. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual since volatility can create some decent trading opportunities if you can find them. Asia was mixed and Europe down with the exception of the FTSE to close out the week and month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Sellers took control today as the Dow fell 132 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in a channel. The inflation data came in where expected. Big tech earnings so far have been mixed. The NASDAQ led the way down by far and that isn't a good sign. The S&P 500 posted a small loss. The short term indicators there are now beginning to slip at the mid-range level. Not sure what to expect next here with the end of the month tomorrow. However todays positive breadth gives hope to the bulls. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The gold shares lost ground as expected on the inflation data. The XAU fell 10 1/2, while GDX dropped over 2 1/2. Volume was about average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have now turned lower. My GDX November calls are now showing a bigger loss. Not sure how much more time to give this idea but time is on our side for a change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and the short term indicators here are beginning to stall. It looks like the daily candlestick chart here wants to go higher which would imply more selling in the near term. We'll see. Closing out October tomorrow. Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The Fed came and went. There wasn't much reaction as interest rates were left unchanged. The Dow gained 97 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index remains in a channel. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending higher with room to go. The S&P did close above its near term down trend line. However we'll have inflation data to deal with tomorrow and it should show higher prices. There will also be big tech earnings to deal with. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 3 1/4 and GDX gained 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX appear to be beginning to stall. It would not be a surprise to see the gold shares lower on higher inflation data tomorrow. My GDX November calls continue to show a loss but less than before. This trade still has a chance to work given the amount of time left in it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are still moving down. It did finish up from the lows of the session though. The market made it through the Fed relatively unscathed. We'll see if it can get past the inflation numbers tomorrow. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Good upside for the overall market but the Dow only managed a gain of 16 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index remains in an upwards sloping channel. The NASDAQ led the way higher today, up over 1%. The S&P 500 had a decent gain as well. The short term indicators there are moving higher. The S&P is on the cusp of breaking through its short term down trend line. We've got big tech earnings to deal with this week and of course there's tomorrow with the Fed. No change in rates is the consensus but I would not be surprised if we get a hike. After all we have recent higher than expected inflation data and oil at new highs for the year. The new Fed chairman has talked about being tough on inflation but if the Fed doesn't raise rates in the face of the recent data perhaps there will be some credibility risk. Gold climbed $36 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 9 3/4, while GDX added a little over a couple of points. Volume was light. The short term indicators on GDX are starting to move up. My GDX November calls are still showing a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here are moving down. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. We'll have to see how things go after the Fed announcement. Europe was generally higher with the exception of the FTSE and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, October 26, 2026
A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 146 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index remains in its channel. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P 500 have started to move higher. Plenty of earnings out this week along with the Fed. Inflation data due on Thursday. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move this week. I'm not exactly sure what to expect and I don't have any SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold rose $19 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 3 points, while GDX added around 3/4. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. My GDX November calls are still showing a modest loss. Waiting to see how gold reacts to what comes out of the Fed on Wednesday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Some of its short term indicators are turning lower. Most are at mid-range, which means it could go either way from here. I would think that things would be on hold ahead of the Fed unless some more geo-political tension shows up. We'll see. Asia and Europe were generally higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Friday, October 23, 2026
Heading lower as buyers remain on the sidelines. The Dow fell 652 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in an upward sloping channel. The NASDAQ only had a minor loss today while the S&P 500 dropped modestly. Stocks cannot gain any sort of traction to the upside and I don't see when that will change. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down with some already oversold. Near term up trend lines have been broken with perhaps some support at the 7550 area. The Dow lead the way lower today. Gold continues to fall with the futures off $45. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 3/8, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are trending lower and are yet to be completely oversold. GDX closed below the lower rail on its decending trend channel and that probably spells more trouble for the gold shares. My GDX November calls are now showing a modest loss as this trade is clearly in trouble. Debating when to take the loss or hold out for some type of bounce given that these options still have a month to go. At this point it looke like this was the wrong time for this idea again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today but did close below the 20 level. Its short term indicators are still moving higher with room to go. Volatility has picked up and perhaps anything goes for this indicator going forward. Stock markets are in uncommon ground right now as the usual technical indicators are not matching up with the current price movements. Probably heading to the sidelines is the most prudent course of action until things settle down. But the prospects of things returning to a more normal environment are dim at best with the Fed coming up, the US election and the ongoing geoplitical problems. I'll continue to go over the charts this weekend and try to figure out what to do with the GDX call trade. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Most stock indexes got whacked today but the Dow managed to end up with a small gain of 11 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in an upwards sloping channel. We got a signal last night for a big move from the McClellan oscillator and we saw that today. The NASDAQ fell over 2 1/2% and the S&P 500 lost 1 1/4%. A last minute bounce kept things from being worse. So much for my thought on new all time highs showing up soon. The short term indicators for the S&P are now heading down. Barring a turnaround tomorrow it appears that stocks are going lower from here. The NASDAQ is short term oversold, staying that way and is never a good thing. The question is who would be buying stocks ahead of the weekend and the Fed next week? Gold got clobbered as well with the futures losing $107. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped dramatically in a flight to safety. No flight to safety for gold though. The XAU fell 19 1/2 and GDX lost 5 points. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are heading down now with some already oversold. GDX has been traveling in a downward channel since the beginning of September. It remains in that channel but we are now down to the lower rail. A break of that will lead to more selling for the gold shares. The technical damage on the weekly chart after todays price action is hard to ignore. Unless there is a miracle turnaround for the gold shares tomorrow, the GDX November call idea will probably be a bad idea. My open order for the GDX November calls did get filled today. I had placed the order price in case of a drop for GDX so the entry price was not as bad as it could have been. That said I probably could have done a little better getting in. The trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time for this trade to work but the techncial damage to the GDX chart cannot be taken lightly. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did close below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up. Volatility has made a comeback and the VIX hasn't even closed above 20 yet. It could be that things are just starting to get interesting. I'm in the next trade now and it hasn't started out as you'd normally like things to go. Once again the management of the trade will determine how things turn out. Let's hope that I do a better job than the last time. Asia and Europe closed lower as it looks like a worldwide exit for stocks. I'll keep an eye on any overnight developments and we'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Moving higher across the board today as the Dow gained 360 points on good volume. The advance/declines were even. The summation index continues to move up in a channel. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and its short term indicators continue to move higher. Could we be on our way to new all time highs for the S&P 500? It's possible. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were barely higher. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains very light here. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to track sideways. The near term down trend line here is now at 89. NEM reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. That could get GDX moving in either direction on Friday. My order for the GDX November calls remains unfilled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down with room to go. The VIX seems to be giving the market a green light to move higher. As long as it continues on this path stocks should move up. However much of the week so far feels like it's in a holding pattern. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of Japan. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Some early volatility but then it was sideways for the rest of the day. The Dow outperformed once again as it gained 529 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is traveling in a slightly upwards channel. The S&P 500 had a modest gain and the NASDAQ a very slight loss. The Dow in the lead is not the most bullish scenario. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P continue to trend higher. I'm not sure what's next here so no SPY option trades for now. Gold was off $19 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU slipped 1 1/2, while GDX shed around 1/3. Volume is still pretty light here which shows no interest one way or another for the gold shares. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are pointing lower. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall upside day for stocks. The short term indicators here are moving down with room to go. The VIX seems to imply that the market will be moving higher in the near term. The spike higher on Friday looks like a one day wonder at this point. Waiting on the next market catalyst to appear. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Monday, October 19, 2026
Bouncing back for the overall market but the Dow fell 36 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains in a channel. The NASDAQ was up over 1% and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 gained over thirty points. Some of the short term indicators there have begun to turn back up. However it did close well off of the highs for the session. Gold dipped $19 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher as were interest rates. The XAU was off 3 1/2 and GDX fell around 1 1/4. Volume was very light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn lower. I still like the idea for the GDX November calls and my open order remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators have turned down. This is the indicator that I think bears close watching in the near term to determine what is going on here. After jumping above the twenty level on Friday it has now come back down. If it can stay below 20 the market should be OK. However if it rises above 20 again we will be in for more volatility. So it is something to keep an eye on. Plenty of earnings due out this week which could get things going in either direction. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.
Friday, October 16, 2026
Back to selling on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 175 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is traveling in a slight upwards sloping channel. Once again the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ fell over 2% and the S&P 500 over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back lower with some steam. The daily candlestick chart has turned around with a bearish engulfing pattern. The short term up trend line here has now been violated. I'm not sure what is going on here but I'm back to advising some caution until we can figure things out for stocks. Gold was up $19 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished just a touch lower. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. The gold shares did not follow the overall market lower. That is further evidence that the GDX November calls is probably the place to be. My open order for them remains out there but probably has to be adjusted in order to get filled. I'll be hoping for some sort of pullback in the gold shares early next week but hope is not a trading strategy. The down trend line in place for GDX now comes in at 90. The weekly indicators are stalling at the mid-range level and the irregular inverse head and shoulders pattern remains in place on the weekly chart. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and closed at the 20 level after being above it during the session. Its short term indicators are moving up and are almost overbought. The VIX will have to be watched carefully here because if it starts getting above the 20 level the volatility will be greater along with the losses for stocks. Or perhaps todays sell off was option expiration related, in which case things could turn back up for the S&P going forward. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend as we try and plan what to do next. Not a lot of economic data due out next week. There's an extra week in the November option cycle so the premiums are pricey. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 15, 2026
The Dow took off to the upside today as it gained 558 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is in a sideways channel. The inflation data came in higher than expected but after an early sell off buyers stepped in. The NASDAQ was pretty negative for much of the day but came all the way back for a slight gain. The S&P 500 posted a small gain. On a day where the economic numbers suggested a sell off, it didn't happen. This is what I mean when I say the market goes where it wants. You would expect interest rates and the US dollar to rise on the data but they did not. These were a couple of the products that I mentioned last week that their indicators got stretched too far in one direction and were bound to reverse at some point soon. We've reached that point. Things will probably support another rise for stocks going forward. The short term indicators for the S&P have now stalled after dropping yesterday. The daily candlestick chart here looks bullish and the S&P held its near term up trend line. Gold took off higher as well and the futures gained $89. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 13 points and GDX added 3 2/3. Volume was above average and GDX closed at its high for the session. My open order for the GDX November calls didn't get filled but I'm leaving it out there. Looks like we may have missed this trade again but we'll see what happens going forward. But some of the short term indicators for GDX have jumped higher so it looks like it could be the beginning of something sustained to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of its short term indicators have turned back down. The 200 day moving average here contained the recent rise. The daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. Expiration Friday on tap and anything goes at this point. The Fed chairman will be speaking at an IMF summit tomorrow so that may provide a reason for markets to move. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe continues to trend upwards. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Lower from the start today but the Dow only lost 48 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The inflation data came in a bit hotter than expected and most averages had a gap lower on the open. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 got clobbered. The NASDAQ was down over 500 points and the S&P lost over 1%. Stocks made a slight comeback in the final hour. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned down with room to go. More economic data due tomorrow including producer prices on inflation. I would expect some follow through selling but you never know. Gold took a hit as well with the futures off $53. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat to a bit lower. The XAU lost 16 1/2, while GDX shed around 3 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares did come up off of their lows. The short term indicators for GDX are heading down and are getting to completely oversold. I adjusted my order for the GDX November calls to a closer in the money strike price. Still not filled yet and may have to adjust it again tomorrow. I'm feeling pretty sure that getting the calls here is the right idea despite my recent loss attempting this. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today as you would expect. The short term indicators here have shot higher and some are almost already overbought. Perhaps the VIX is implying that the decline will not last too long. Time will tell. Asia lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Hanging around today but the Dow fell 180 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn higher. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. Probably will with whatever reaction we get to the inflation numbers. The NASDAQ posted a small loss today and the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought. The concensus for the inflation data tomorrow is already pretty high so anything below that will most likely be viewed as a positive. But we have no idea where those numbers will be. No SPY option trades here with only three days left in the October cycle. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU fell 6 1/4 and GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators on GDX have turned back lower. I did place an open order for the GDX November calls in case we see a sell off tomorrow. Not back to short term oversold on the daily chart here yet but the order won't get filled unless we see additional selling. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed on the session. Some of its short term indicators have turned lower. Still not sure what to expect next on the VIX. Although I will say that tomorrow could be an interesting day in the marketplace. Asia was a bit higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was barely lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, October 12, 2026
Mixed to start options expiration week on a partial Monday holiday as the Dow gained 195 on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trying to turn higher. The NASDAQ dropped the most today and the S&P 500 posted a small loss. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought. Earnings season gets started this week and the consensus is predicting good numbers. CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday could take center stage. The S&P is already overbought so I'd advise some caution here ahead of those reports. No SPY option trades for now. Gold dipped $23 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed. The XAU was off 2 3/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was very light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. I still like the idea for the GDX November calls but would prefer to see GDX get back to short term oversold. May not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and some of its short term indicators are turning back up. Hard for me to say where it goes from here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow when all the players are back in the game.
Friday, October 09, 2026
Buyers took control today as the Dow climbed 423 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. It eventually will as it is blown out to the downside and probably sooner rather than later. The Dow led things higher today which isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Its short term indicators are still overbought. It looks poised to go higher but the volume to upside today was lacking. Moving into options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will be in effect. Gold rallied $63 on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates nudged higher. The XAU gained 9 points and GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares higher with no apparent news to drive them and we'll take notice. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher with plenty of room to go. The short term down trend line on GDX comes in at 92. If it gets through there the rally will be on. I believe that it has already started but am hoping for some kind of move lower in the next couple of days to fill todays gap on the daily chart. Markets rarely cooperate. Perhaps the inflation data next week will give us the opportunity to purchase the GDX November calls. The weekly GDX candlestick chart has a potential loosely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern appearing in the past seven months. If that comes to fruition the gains for the gold shares would be very good. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an upside market. The short term indicators here are pointing south. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower. A back and forth week for stocks but it really looks like things are about to get going to the upside. The medium term indicators have been oversold for too long. Perhaps earnings season will have the buyers out in force again. Inflation data out next week should move the markets. I probably will not try the SPY options as I don't see a solid signal there at the moment. I am looking to try the gold share calls again. I'll check the charts over the next two days to make sure that I have some type of game plan for next week. It already looks like the inflation numbers are supposed to be high. That means if they go up but not as much as expected, traders will view that as a positive. Just a guess there on my part. We'll stick with the technicals. Asia and Europe finished up on the last day of the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, October 08, 2026
A mixed bag today with the Dow up and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 51 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to stabalize. The NASDAQ led the way lower, off 1 1/4%. The S&P 500 was down 36 points but did come back from the lows on the session. The short term indicators here have now turned down with plenty of room to go lower. The market is trying to figure out what it wants to do. No SPY options trades in mind right now. Gold found a bid with China returning to the market after a holiday as the futures rose $15. The US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU climbed 5 points, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up but remain oversold. I'm still considering the GDX November calls but will most likely wait for next weeks inflation data to get out of the way before purchase. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today and that fits with an overall down market. The short term indicators here are trending higher but without conviction for now. I'm not exactly sure what the market wants to do here as we still have conflicting short and longer term signals. Never an easy game plus my take on things hasn't been solid lately. We keep moving on though. I'll probably let Friday go by and regroup over the weekend. Asia and Europe were down again in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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