Friday, December 05, 2025
We were hoping to get some clarity on the near term direction today but we only got more of the same drift higher. The Dow gained 104 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving up. After a brief decent rally in the early going, the market simply went lower to sideways for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ was the leader but the gains were small. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought. It is getting closer to new all time highs but not there yet. Gold slipped $13 today on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways. Still in a position where they could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower and that bodes well for stocks. Short term oversold and staying that way. That said it isn't a condition that will last forever. Next week is all about the Fed, with another rate cut expected. I'm not exactly sure about that. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. At this point I am inclined to try the SPY December puts ahead of the Fed for our next trade. This would be a short term idea with only two weeks left in the December option cycle. However I'll be looking at things for the next couple of days to decide if this trade is worth the risk. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe ended mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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