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Monday, December 01, 2025

We had some selling to begin the month of December as the Dow fell 427 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most negative scenario. I'm still in the camp that we are heading to new all time highs soon but could change my mind. The S&P 500 was lower and some of its short term indicators are still overbought. I will have to see how the rest of the week shapes up before attempting the next trade in the SPY options. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were higher. The XAU ended the day flat and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overobught and is on the cusp of hitting a new 52 week high. Still no gold share trades that stand out for me right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. It remains short term oversold. If the VIX hangs around where it is now for the rest of the week, then I might consider trying the SPY December puts ahead of Fridays inflation numbers. However I do not think that is the most likely scenario. We will try and let the market tell us where it is going. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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