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Thursday, December 04, 2025

It was really just a day of hanging around as the Dow slid 32 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues higher. It was a sideways affair for the major stock indices with the NASDAQ having the best of the slight gains that we saw besides the Russell 2000. The S&P had a small gain and remains short term overbought. Inflation data tomorrow and the market movement will tell us a lot. If we rally then all signs are go for new all time highs in the coming days. If we fall then that scenario would be put into question. I did not purchase any options ahead of the inflation data though I was leaning towards the SPY December puts. I could make a case for trying them but decided to wait until perhaps early next week. Or maybe I'll give them a try tomorrow. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3 but volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX are stalling and appear to be able to go either way from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold. If the VIX continues down tomorrow we'll have about all we need to be confident about new all time highs coming for the S&P 500. Hasn't happened yet. The point is tomorrow will be key. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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