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Wednesday, December 10, 2025

The Fed lowered rates as expected and the market climbed higher as the Dow gained 497 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving up. The Dow was by far the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. But we can't argue with price and today was good for the bulls. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had smaller gains relative to the Dow. I was in the camp that the Fed would be on hold today and that was incorrect. However we are still looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 in the coming days. It is knocking on the door. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but can stay that way during rallies. It looks like the S&P wants to break out to the upside from the sideways consolidation of the past couple weeks. Gold was up $26 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4 on average volume. The short term indicators on GDX are moving higher and are not yet overbought. GDX looks poised to hit a new 52 week high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here remain oversold. We've got the Fed out of the way and now will be waiting on economic data due out next week. I'm waiting on a clear technical signal for the next trade but at the rate things are going that won't happen before option expiration next week. Running out of time in the December cycle. Not easy being patient sometimes. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see if we get some upside follow through for stocks tomorrow.

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