Monday, December 29, 2025
Some modest selling to begin another holiday week as the Dow fell 249 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving higher but not with conviction. Our short term sell signal was valid but we don't know how long it will last and to what extent. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but they have rolled over. We are hoping things turn back up short term as our next idea is to fade whatever rally we see on the first trading day of next year. But markets rarely, if ever cooperate. Gold got absolutely clobbered as the futures fell $196. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates dipped. The XAU lost 18 7/8, while GDX slid 5 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down. The precious metals are overdue for some kind of longer rest but selling has always been met with buying lately. GDX did drop around 20% in October but went right back to new all time highs as of last Friday. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. It remains short term oversold. Asia was lower and Europe little changed to begin the week. Many players remain away form their desks as markets will be closed Thursday for New Years day. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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