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Friday, October 06, 2023

There was a dramatic one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower only to turn around and soar higher. The most watched index gained 288 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but not as much as recently. Perhaps this is the beginning of an attempt at a turnaround there. The jobs report came in better than expected and the market gapped down at the open. But then buyers showed up and we marched higher until the last half hour. A market that moves up in the face of news that was considered negative is a plus for the bulls. The NASDAQ once again led the way up. The S&P 500 held around the 4220 level once again and I'm calling that as the bottom for this two month old decline. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up although we are still oversold. Yes we could have some backing and filling going forward but the indicators got so blown out to the downside that I believe it's time to turn around. We will be looking at the SPY October calls if it isn't too late already. And it very well could be. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was good. I was hoping for more of a gain for the gold shares but at least we're moving in the right direction. One of my GDX October call positions is slightly positive now but the other two are still solid losers. This trade is still in the cut the loss mode and I should probably be out on Monday even with two weeks to go in the October option cycle. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up and have plenty of room to go higher. The weekly candlestick chart here has a potential bullish hammer pattern on it. But I'm not sure holding on to this trade any longer is the right thing to do. I'll decide what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and barely closed below its 200 day moving average. The short term technical indicators continue to fall. The VIX appears as though it wants to go lower but I've had a tough time trying to figure this one out. We thought today would be important for the markets and it was. It appears that the bulls are making a stand here. My guess is that it will be successful. We'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days to try and figure what to do next. Monday will be a partial holiday for some in the US but the stock market will be open. Europe and Asia finished the week on a positive note with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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